€1,350/cow payment to cut suckler numbers

Base price

Article from Adam Woods in the Farmers Journal regarding the future of suckler cows. Interesting to see the graphs showing the predicted growth of the dairy herd till 2030 and the demise of the suckler cow.

https://www.farmersjournal.ie/long-read-to-hell-or-the-hills-for-the-irish-suckler-cow-735431

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120043634#Comment_120043634

TBH base it's a load of crap. He is going off at tangents and linking in BPS restructuring.

He gives the figure of 14k/ year of a loss to a 537/HA payment. That 14k loss would be on a 150 acre farm he never said the farm area or else I missed it.

Next to put perceptive on it that farmer has a 32k payment per year and probably averaged 36-38k/ year over the last 20 years or about 750k in BPS payments without any other environment or ANC payment. ANC would have added. ANC would have added another 70k.

He gives s bemoaning that the exit payment that everybody says will not happen should be targeted to existing to the scared suckler cow farmer.

Very few suckler farmers I knew had payments above 300/ HA. He is on about finishers and grain men subsidizing there production with there payments. Basically they want the impoverishment of all farmers to continue.

Everyone must be making money out of sucklers except the farmers having them

dh1985

You must have interpreted that article very different than I. The point I understood he was trying to make was that the future for suckler cows in the next few years will have a number of roadblocks that will lead to its demise. Don't think he was pegging one sector of agriculture against another but just outlining some factors that will impact a particular sector.

If there is to be a counterbalance to the increase in the dairy herd it will need to come from suckler herd. Not from the finishers or grain men. That's what he is outlining, and how it might be achieved. Nothing more.

tanko

Surely banding, reduction in chemical fertiliser use and other measures to reduce stocking rates on dairy farms will put a stop to the expansion of the dairy herd or maybe lead to a reduction in dairy cow numbers, who knows. There’s a boom in dairying at the moment, i’ve never seen a boom in any area that wasn’t followed by a bust.

Geuze

I am not a farmer, so please accept my apologies for not knowing much.

AFAIK, a suckler farmer has X cows, and produces (hopefully) X calves per year, and the main income is from selling the calves.

The suckler cows are not dairy breeds.

A suckler farmer sells the calves at various ages (I'm not clear here) at marts, and the buyers are often larger beef farmers in east of Ireland, who finish the cattle, and then sell to factory.

One question: presuming a constant demand for beef, if the suckler herd decreases, where will the replacement supply of beef come from?

Dairy bull calves?

wrangler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120044200#Comment_120044200

Plenty of suckler farmers had payments over 600/ha, myself included.

The figures he's using is from an example that was put up at their CAP meetings around the country.

I can assure you that my Payments have reduced by 14000/yr and more and I don't have 150 acres.

As far as I know Adam woods is a better than average suckler/sheep farmer

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120044629#Comment_120044629

There is no roadblocks to suckler cows. The simple fact that a cow that produces 0.8 calves/ years is not economically viable and that farmers that are farming them if given other options will exit, they will even exit without the other options. The only thing that held numbers up over the last few years was BEEP and the projection of an exit payment.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120044715#Comment_120044715

I think that dairy expansion will slow down faster than many imagine unless milk prices are constantly above 55-60c/ L. Not sure if there will be a bust as such. Economic factors and costs are in Ireland favour compared to production systems depending on grain. However individual farmers who expanded too fast may come under financial pressure especially where rents are above 400/HA.

Labour will become an impediment as well to dairy expansion. In the next 3-4 years the living wage is coming in at 14/hour. Calculating in holidays, employer PRSI, new sick pay regulations and maybe a pension contribution labour costs will be 20/ hour

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120044722#Comment_120044722

Most suckler farmers are along the west coast and the border areas. Yest there was some larger herds on better land, but grain or dairy were better options.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120044726#Comment_120044726

The 14k was the project loss on a farm who's BPS was 537/ ha over the next 4 years. You indicate that your payment is similar and you lost more over the last 20.

I was giving context to it. This would not have be an average suckler farmer back when payment were decoupled in 2002 nor were they average suckler farm sizes

Average herd have historically been in the 22ish number at present the average herd is 16 cows.

So linking loss in BPS payments in an article about reduction in suckler numbers is pure propaganda.

I am not sure what sort of suckler or sheep farmer he is when he is trying to justify what is a loss making system in his own words.

Dunedin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120044722#Comment_120044722

I’ll answer your question seeing as Bass didn’t!!!

You’re pretty spot on. Calves would be sold as weanlings anywhere from 6 months on depending on the individual farmer.

Yes to your question. If sucklers go then beef will be through the dairy farms. Not all necessarily bulls though. Dairy farmers will have a mix of dairy and beef calves. The Holstein-Friesian heifers will be kept as replacements and and the Holstein-Friesian bulls will go to beef. the beef calves will be both bulls and heifers and all will go through the beef chain.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120045614#Comment_120045614

Sorry Dunedin forgot to answer that part of @Geuze question. There is another bit to add. Firstly over the last twelve years dairy cows have gone from 1.1 million to 1.55 million and will continue to rise and we are probably facing an export embargo for calves under six months ( and maybe a complete export embargo another 100 k) which will add 1600-200k animals to the finished kill.

Suckler cows will not disappear completely. They will probably stabilise around the 500k mark where they were pre the introduction of suckler premia in the early 1990's

wrangler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120045266#Comment_120045266

He's not justifying sucklers but trying a forecast of what's going to happen.

Thinking of averages, if the average was the norm then we'd all be walking around with less than two legs,

Including hobby farmers in the average doesn't give a true picture, likewise with average farm incomes, there's a lot of messers included in those figures. Anyone with less than 20 cows isn't going to come under pressure if income drops in sucklers, Their 'AVERAGE ' income will be higher than a lot of full time farmers so it's proper order to only refer to a 50 suckler cow farm.

Finally unless that article is read through your biased eyes, there's no where he's trying to justify sucklers, he's telling it the way it is.

Lately there was posts on here accusing IFJ of lying about the suckler reduction scheme when it was proposed in food vision yet ministers referred to it after, reflecting how sad some farmers are. '

Many times I've had to sort stupid mistakes for farmers and had to say ''If you'd bought a journal that wouldn't have happened'' but there you go.

Some farmers have missed sending in their BPS application because they didn't buy a journal. need I say more

Won’t there be a natural reduction in numbers anyway.

1) Typical beef farmer is in their late 50s meaning more will exit sucklers/ beef

2) Export options for dairy calves will diminish meaning more land will have to used to keep them here

3) Institutional investors will have the resources to outbid farmers to buy land for long term investments like forestry etc

4) Those that previously rented out land to farmers will secure higher rents off institutional investors

5) The derogation issue

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120045995#Comment_120045995

I read the article, I re-read the article.

How come an article headlined

''Long Read to hell or the hills for Irish sucklers''

needed to verge into BPS redistribution.

Averages tell you a lot about any industry. You again like many just treat any smaller operator as a hobby farmer. Unless you are up over 200 acres any drystock operations can be run part-time. with sucklers on such an operation you only need to be full-time at calving.

Basically the article was just another cripping session against the redirection of payments so that they are not subsidising processor's or large dairy operations. Mind you it was not just limited to Ireland.

Farmers that need the rag to remember when to apply for anything are less and less now. This idea that lads at certain/ lower numbers are Messer's. None of these lads started out with 150 acre farms handed to them or collected a large compensation package because a motorway or road passed through there land.

Being commercial is the only answer. Production related subsidies only f@@ks it for the rest of us.

Adam's article seems to want to trap suckler farmers within the system producing a calf that everyone else makes a turn out of not the producer.

Those on better land with substantial holdings have options. Why should a cohort of suckler farmers have an issue if other exit are being supported but they are not.

If suckler are profitable there is no problem. However there is an agenda to keep suckler at an unrealistic level which neither benefits other drystock farmers or even other suckler farmers.

The less suckler farmers there is the more of a market there is for there product. Most of us understand the processors will pay less the more we produce

wrangler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120046259#Comment_120046259

Processors will sell whatever is produced...... the only difference is that there'll be more costs against the beast that's processed in a factory that's not in full production and ''the animal pays for everything''.

Processors won't contract to supply where they can't supply, they won't back themselves into a corner that they have to cut their margin.

I had my debts/loans paid before I got any compensation, and was set up with a good entitlement so the compensation made very little difference to my income or the farm,

You're just another conspiracy theorist, reading things that aren't there

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120046635#Comment_120046635

What we have learned is when there is too much production the processors either find it hard to sell it or increase there margin substantially. There answer to that is to reduce prices to below the cost of production.

Remember in over twenty years since a beef plant went into liquidation in Ireland. It has not happened in any other industry.

We all remember the carry on in 2019 when they had adequate supply but decided to keep dropping prices to farmers, some procurement managers were glorying in it.

Yes the beast has to pay for the whole lot however the more production the lower the price the processors pay the farmer.

We are all making a few bob out of it now. We have to deal with the reality on the ground. However there is a few lazy hobby farmers these are the real one lads with substantial holdings who will not change over to profitable production systems. Rather they want to be subsidised right left and center continue producing a product that is not commercially ( even though they like to think it is) viable.

They want to be allowed to farm this system with shiny toys and be considered progressive and dear Adam is there main cheer leader.

We were all told how good these lads were. The top f@@king 10%. But like the emperor who got new clothes we now know they were really just naked

wrangler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120048302#Comment_120048302

Cop yourself on , farmers are going to be subsidised still but in a different way, it's still going to be a glorified dole or farm assist.

But the sensible ones will follow the money, same as anytime. don't kid yourself that they'll produce less just to keep the price up. they'll produce less because they'll get subsidies (dole) to do so.

MY enterprises here since decoupling were always profitable and I also had 40000 reasons to draw subsidies, all of them euros,

so stop this shi.. about profitability.

wrangler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120048359#Comment_120048359

There is no negatives, same as there wasn't negatives when I was accumulating entitlements. after decoupling there was no onus to produce anything.

wrangler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120048395#Comment_120048395

The reps on Commitees are elected by farmers, they're the ones that decide policy.

If the decision comes between no subsidy and a subsidy linked to production, you take the latter.

The schemes that are coming down the road are more like a farmers dole than anything that came before so that's the way they've made us now.

Farmers are well able to harvest minnows too given the chance, no one better. everyone'll do what they can get away with, their 'holier than thou' attitude doesn't stand up

It's called business

The IFA are an embarrassment. The ifa president was on prime time and got absolutely schooled by George Monbiot.

The New Zealand approach around retaining numbers and reducing emissions is the answer but we rely on the likes of teagasc, the ifa and fj in this country.

alps

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120048471#Comment_120048471

Farm orgs were reserving their position on it until the money is shown to be there for it. Too much forked tongue messaging from that Minister over the past 2 years to trust him at this stage. Macra against it as they see it being an end to generational renewal and routes to progress for incoming farmers.

wrangler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120048471#Comment_120048471

All farm organisations are against it , if you're not a member of IFA or if you're not actively involved you can't complain about their policies if they don't suit you.

wrangler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120048559#Comment_120048559

Cullinan was elected by standing on the gates with Beef Plan, I said many times he was a poor representative..... but sure what would I know compared with Beef plan. We have what we have but giving farmers a vote in an organisation , when they have no interest in the organisation will do that. It's like giving a child a loaded gun. Every time I read Angus woods in the indo I see the fu.. up,

If it was based on ability he would've been there.

If you were ever in New Zealand you wouldn't hold them up as an example of farming. I have a picture somewhere of a live bobby calf been thrown into a trailer load of dead calves after he walking in from the paddock with the cows

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120048789#Comment_120048789

He is a weak leader and perhaps the quality of candidate and is reflective of the diminishing status of the ifa within Irish society.

To be fair you do see dairy lads in Ireland taking pride in their beef stock and doing a good job on them but there is the other extreme as well.

The methane reducing approach within the active herd like New Zealand with supplements etc would make sense to me not least from a marketing point of view. Top story in the news last night was this was the hottest year. I can’t see the general public moving to electric cars or public transport in big numbers.

wrangler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120048946#Comment_120048946

Diminishing status of farmers, you mean. Farmer vote isn't what it was. dirtying roads and bad smells

If you read Angus woods column in the indo you'll see his ability and he's the same in discussion, very articulate.

Cullinan got in on a rebel vote and farmers shot themselves in the foot big time

Bass Reeves

You would have to wonder why the farm organisations reserved there position. They did not reserve there position on BPS restructuring or many other issues that effect farmers

As for the reps on committee's the restructuring was probably a benefit to the majority as opposed to a minority, it actually was the reason for the creation of the INHA when back on 2015/16 National officers threatened western county members against going for a redistribution model.

Basically it an option for farmers that want to go down this route. If they wish to opt for organics or agroforestry with it so be it. It's there choice.

I think the government is finding it hard with farm organisations and processors against it however I do think we will see a scheme if not this year next year.

The expansion of dairying will slow down with nitrates rules, sticking limits and labour costs/availability

Siamsa Sessions

As with all political organisations, there’s a massive gap between top and bottom in the IFA. The ordinary farmer members at monthly meetings put forward some good points, the county chair brings them up to Bluebell, and the civil servant types there duly ignore them.

Obviously not every idea from ordinary members can be taken on board at policy level, but neither should every idea be ignored. That’s a structural issue within the organisation and it’s one of the reasons farmers are drifting away.

The suckler reduction scheme is a case in point: any farmer I spoke to, or heard speak at the monthly meeting, is open to hearing more about it. But the official line from Bluebell is no, no, no, never. At this stage, I’d be guessing the Dept scarcely look up when Tim and Co. walk into the room.

The IFA has not modernised and is going the same way as the Catholic Church.

Will most farmers even notice when the Dept eventually stops meeting the IFA at all? Or as happened last year, meets them in the same room alongside Birdwatch-Ireland and other tiny environmental/cycling groups?

wrangler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120049334#Comment_120049334

If it's that easy to dissuade the farmers, If one executive secretary can stop the progress of 40 commitee members, maybe they're getting what they deserve,

The executive secretaries wouldn't get away with that when I was on national Commitees, No proposal was policy unless it got the support of the relevant commitee and the National Council

Executive Secretaries are only paid staff after all and only there for advice. In that they're like the Civil service they'll do as little as they can get away with. They'll get their salaries no matter what happens

In any organisation it's very easy to stand back and let others do the work,, but the organisation eventually suffers. It's very evident that's whats happening to all farm organisations and the reason there's so many of them. ''sure we might as well start another one'' and then not support it.

If IFA is so bad, why is ICSA not thriving, could it be that most Farmers can't be bothered working for any organisation...... go figure

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120049005#Comment_120049005

I think family farmers are still well regarded. The current anti farmer sentiment seems to be around methane emissions and bio diversity concerns. I can see how practical steps could be taken to reduce methane with supplements and improve biodiversity with schemes.

Maybe farming has diminished in importance to the economy as we know the pharma, med device and tech sectors dwarf farming.

High farm gate prices always lead to oversupply. I can see it myself. Most dairy lads are looking to up numbers. Rental prices are going through the roof. The herd will continue to grow as a result.

Siamsa Sessions

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120049436#Comment_120049436

It’s now yourself and others like you are needed to put pressure on the shiny shoes crew in Bluebell. I think the constant farmer-bashing in the media is taking the wind out of many farmers. And lots are part-time too so the same financial pressure isn’t there to push the execs in the different sectors. Throw in an indecisive president (the previous one was no great shakes either) and an aging membership overall, and it’s not hard to see that the old bull is huffing and puffing and no one is afraid to cross his field anymore.

I don’t have the answers but if IFA are to stay relevant, then something new or different needs to done.

Edited to say I’ve no great grá for the IFA, thou I am a member, but I would like to think farmers have some sort of representation in the political and media worlds.

cute geoge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120048946#Comment_120048946

In that ifa election most lads would have put him bottom of the 3 but then again what else would you expect from farmers ,At this stage most lads have little faith in ifa .They need a strong leader and hopefully Harold Kingstan gets the nod if he runs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120050710#Comment_120050710

I’m talking about milk price. Every lad I know in cows is expanding.

If lads had stock ready this May the base was 5.25 throw the Angus bonus on top of that and then you were looking at 2k for a decent 2 year old Angus bullock.

Lads slating sucklers are often the same lads hanging up bullocks at around 340 at 30 months after the price has tanked because of all the other lads doing the same.

Getting to market early is key.

Lads are getting out of sucklers as it is. If the goal is methane reduction then the methane reducing supplement is the answer along with improvements in breeding including scanning etc. The emissions in the active herd are the concern.