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Colder this week, some wintry/snow showers, widespread frost and ice.
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04-12-2022 6:03pm#1
Forecast chat thread for this, hopefully, event
Ok I'll give it a go! It's a marginal situation, a lot of uncertainty and specifics would be a bit too unwise right now but lets get the ball rolling!
What is for sure...
Main points:
- Turning colder from the north
- Night time frost and icy patches
- Some wintry falls and some snow
- Could be beginning of longer period of much colder weather
Possible warning level - Snow - Yellow
From Tuesday night on turning notably colder with some wintry showers especially near windward coasts in the north and northwest and, at times, along Atlantic coasts and the southwest. Later, toward the weekend, the higher risk may extend to the east coast.
In terms of snow potential - over 200 meters is a good bet but to lower levels at times too with a more organised band of showers moving south some time Thursday night/Friday morning which could leave a couple of centimeters just about anywhere.
Mostly at low levels the showers will be a messy mix of rain/sleet/snow but inland spots always the better chance of seeing snowfall.
Temperatures:
From Wednesday onward daytime temperatures really struggle above freezing to around 2 or 3c max away from immediate windward coasts of the north/northwest/west/southwest but anywhere snow accumulates staying around freezing for daylight hours. On windward coasts 4 - 6c max.
Night time minima from Wednesday onward inland, particularly the southeast, down to -3 or -4c but that depends on cloud cover as well as there will be showers moving through at times. Between 0 and -2c will be the normal widespread night time minima.
Frost and ice will be slow to clear during daylight hours and in sheltered spots may see out the days in the second half of the week.
There is a lot of uncertainty because of the synoptic situation later next week when we will be near centers of low pressure from time to time making wind direction quite variable and this impacts depending on the direction. It will stay very cold throughout with wintry showers but for snow it's really narrow margins for the second half of the week for low elevations.
The big question right now is whether this is a blip or part of a much longer period of deeper cold weather maybe the following week. The synoptic situation is unusual and there every chance of sharper cold weather later on.
We need to wait and see how things unfold but I'll be updating the thread as things become clearer.
Apologies can't be more accurate just yet but it will be exciting watching it developing or crash all the same! 😀
Post edited by Meteorite58 on61
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UKMO, GEM, GFS, ICON all indicate a continuation of the cold spell beyond next weekend.
The latest ECM is very similar to the 0z output.
Cold air flooding south by Wednesday.
Friday below.
The low emanating from west of the Azores is still an issue and briefly introduces a much milder airmass late on Monday through Wednesday with a likely return to colder weather thereafter.
Pressure chart animation below.
Summary
It will be bitterly cold Wednesday through to weekend . The track and intensity of the Azores low as well as subtle changes in the Greenland blocking high will dictate the longevity of the cold spell. The ECM is on its own with this afternoon's model output but it has been rather consistent on the path of that LP system.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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Interesting to see the 18z ICON moving toward the establishment of an easterly/north-easterly flow by Saturday with the trough sinking south. It's something that's there in the background as a decent possibility but we'd need more models on board sooner rather than later. All depends on a smashed up jet stream playing ball.
Ordinarily the Jet Stream is one main ribbon of air (with a smaller southern arm) well defined pointing like a vindictive finger towards our shores which normally brings us our angry Atlantic systems.
On that note spare a thought for anyone who's booked a holiday to Portuguese or Spanish beaches the next couple of weeks, they will be getting our more traditional type weather for this time of year for a while.
Post edited by Kermit.de.frog on9 -
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GFS having a go now too at an easterly component possibly setting in over the weekend. In fact it's a very good run for coldies prolonging cold and with snow risk to varying degrees throughout to at least the following Monday. We could be looking at a progressively colder period of weather for the longer term rather than something short lived.
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