Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

Charles Babbage

This type of thread always runs into the ground because of the range of issues involved and it is easy for people to latch on to one relatively unimportant element.

These can be grouped into the political and the economic. The citizens assembly can deliberate on the former, other bodies are needed to look at the latter.

Public employment in NI is not growing, and there won't be large scale public funding in the net few years. The large number of public servants can be reduced by early retirement and move to Britain provisions. Generally everyone in education and health will be needed whatever system is in place.

Pensions come in the form of the civil service pensions, for both devolved and central services, other public service, contributory pensions and welfare pensions paid to people without enough income. All of these could be treated differently, which is where the complexity arises.

It is quite wrong to say that there are no economic benefits for the island as a whole, once you go north of the line from Dublin to Galway there are diseconomies of various sorts that will be improved. In an overheating economy the northern part of the country can still develop further, there are huge diseconomies in the north-west, there is no reason that Derry should be less successful than Limerick or Galway, it hugely unachieves at present.

There is a cost but it is a complex calculation and sound bites do not capture the issue. There is need for serious thinking on the subject from economists, tax experts and the like.

As for the Unionist Community strongly objecting to a United Ireland still being called the Republic of Ireland, they should not have much of a problem as the term "Republic of Ireland" is not much used even when it should be.

Sam Russell

If anyone were to compare 1980's Ireland to today's Ireland they would think a revolution had happened between then and now.

Indeed it did.

Instead of queues of people emigrating to Britain and the USA, and other places like Australia - those are now returning - well some are. Plus, many Europeans and other nationals are arriving in our country finding work, starting businesses, and settling here 'for ever'. The economy has grown beyond belief, as has the population, from 3 million to over 5 million today, with approximately 15% of those born outside of Ireland.

We are far more confident that the 1980's Ireland, or at any time since the founding of the state. We have made a huge success of being in the EU moving from being a supplicant for hand-outs to being a net contributor. We have also succeeded in the UN.

We have still room for more improvement both socially and economically, and a UI might be the spur for that.

There is no doubt in my mind that an all island Ireland would prosper greatly given the success we have seen in the last 40 years. The benefit to not just NI but to those border counties south of the border would justify it. But the economies of scale that a united public service, health service, and education service - plus an integrated police service - would result in greater prosperity for all.

asdfg22

I expect a UI can happen in about 10 years after a lead-in period and after a time there be a committment like the GFA and if all the boxes are ticked it will happen. The timing of a referendum more complicated as it will take alot of money.

There likely be a fund created USA/EU/GB to make it happen, i expect we will be able to draw from the fund as going forward we will be one country. It likely be big thing if it happens. New set up for all of us.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120038832#Comment_120038832

On what basis do you think a fund created by USA/EU/GB will be created to make it happen?

They like us? We are in NATO? We are a buffer against Russia? This sort of 1980s dreamy nonsense has no part in any planning for a united Ireland.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120038764#Comment_120038764

That is a huge compliment to the FG and FF governments that have been in power during that period.

However, extrapolating that scenario forward is difficult. I don't see the parties that have created the success you speak of advocating for the type of united Ireland that you put forward.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120038054#Comment_120038054

What do you mean by "move to Britain" provisions?

Are these similar to the move to Croatia provisions, or move to Serbia provisions, that we saw in Europe over the last few decades?

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120039452#Comment_120039452

A lot of Unionists who found themselves in the Free State following 1922 did move to NI or Britain.

Some remained and adopted to the new situation and others just kept their head down. I would think that a similar reaction would follow a united Ireland by Unionists in NI. Arlene Foster has already said she would leave, though when push comes to shove she might reconsider.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120039442#Comment_120039442

Well, whoever was responsible for it, it certainly happened. Whether the political parties led or followed is up for debate.

I would think that they followed public sentiment as there was a lot of activism on certain issues like divorce that led to political change..

asdfg22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120039437#Comment_120039437

Why is a Kennedy appointed as NI envoy?

Why is Biden coming to NI for 25th of GFA?

Why are the EU heads coming to NI to discuss the protocol?

What do you think is going on since you think i am talking nonsense. I do have an opinion. Whats yours?

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120038054#Comment_120038054

As for the Unionist Community strongly objecting to a United Ireland still being called the Republic of Ireland

Article 4 The name of the state is Éire, or, in the English language, Ireland.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120039452#Comment_120039452

For people working in the UK civil service they have a right to transfer within that service and some will elect to do so for reasons of career advancement or loyalty to the colonial power. This was the case in 1922, as you very well know, your discussion of Serbia is merely trying to derail the discussion.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120044952#Comment_120044952

You expect people to leave their homes and families behind.

There really is no limit to the cruelty that some will impose in their pursuit of a united Ireland.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120040851#Comment_120040851

Platitudes and political posturing do not equal funding that actually makes a difference.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120045180#Comment_120045180

I don't require anyone to go anywhere. However, it is probable that some will choose to do so and they will take their families with them. People move around all the time.

The cruelty lies in having a colonial regime still in the 21st century. Are you campaigning for Blanchardstown to be ruled from London?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120045265#Comment_120045265

A colonial regime? That is so far from the reality of Northern Ireland.

asdfg22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120045189#Comment_120045189

So thats what your doing... your saying alot of nothing...

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120045330#Comment_120045330

Well, NI is the only part of the UK that has no representation by either Labour or Tory parties or the LibDems or the SNP, all of which have significant representation in the HoC. Labour do not have any presence in NI, and neither does the LibDems or the SNP. The Tories have a tiny putative party that gets little notice of any kind, and very few votes.

Is that not a bit colonial?

For fifty years, the political scene in NI was studiously ignored by British politics such that Wilson was not aware that 'one man one vote' did not apply to NI, and that gerrymandering was rife there. They considered the politics of NI a bit more remote than the happenings in Rhodesia where they sent troops to prevent UDI.

Is that not a bit colonial?

Quitelife

A 26 county Ireland was a fudge from the very start and caused thousands of deaths in the civil war & the Troubles.

It should have either been a United Ireland ( 32 Counties ) or all of us remain under British rule not 26 of us are ok Jack and 6 of us arent !!

Why should people in Kilkenny & Galway be free from British Rule & People from Derry or Armagh have to live under it ??

asdfg22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120045330#Comment_120045330

What is the reality in Northern Ireland? i just see this morning there is a new plan.

What do you think of this?

https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2022/12/29/news/new_plans_for_checks_on_goods_entering_ni_will_require_enhanced_facilities_-2962592/

facehugger99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120036114#Comment_120036114

And just look at us now!

One of the most indebted nations on the planet.

We probably could have used a few more bean counters eh?

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120045330#Comment_120045330

Answer my question about whether you are campaigning for Blanchardstown to be ruled from London. And if you are not, then why wish that on the people of Tyrone?

getoutadodge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120046125#Comment_120046125

https://www.sluggerotoole.com/2022/12/23/comparing-the-uk-and-irish-economies/

asdfg22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120047680#Comment_120047680

Well we are obviously doing something right. How is it that we have a health crisis, a housing crisis, no proper public transport.

facehugger99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120047680#Comment_120047680

Using GDP to measure the Irish economy?

LoL.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120045783#Comment_120045783

The hang-ups that people have from the old days never fail to surprise me.

We don't live in a colonial world anymore. The people of Northern Ireland voted in 1974 to stay in the UK, and there is not a single indicator that that view is out of line with current views (albeit the margin of the vote would be less).

And before I get the usual rebuttal of the nationalist boycott, I would just remind you that if every single registered voter who abstained, had voted for a united Ireland, a united Ireland would still have lost by a huge margin.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120047227#Comment_120047227

It is the people of Tyrone and the rest of Northern Ireland who wish themselves to be ruled from London.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120045836#Comment_120045836

What has that got to do with the cost of a united Ireland?

I have previously put forward significant arguments as to why a united Ireland is prohibitively expensive, yet every response drags the discussion down into cul-de-sacs.

The question is quite simple, if we are to level up social welfare, public service pay, and health care, who is going to pay the increased taxes? If we are not going to do that, who is going to take a cut or live in a second-class society?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120045771#Comment_120045771

There is zero evidence that the EU and the US will contribute any funding to a united Ireland, yet we have several posters on here, and commentators in the national media trying to sell us those magic beans.

blanch152

This article is well worth reading for anyone interested in the possibility of a united Ireland. I found this quote particularly relevant:

"Sinn Fein’s approach, in contrast, is not only not transformative, but will set back the cause of unity of the Irish people by deepening the divisions on this island."

https://sluggerotoole.com/2022/12/28/why-the-shared-island-initiative-matters/

Unity of people is the key as set out in the GFA. The focus on unity of territory as envisaged by the colonial thinkers in SF is outdated and well past its relevance.

asdfg22

You simply don't get it, its clear that te politicians North and South will have no say in what Britain are doing, they are creating an exit route and the process has started. There is ample evidence that EU and USA are involved, there is evidence from the past GFA of US funding, i also think that if NI and Scotland sorted UK possibly re-join EU.

You are mis using the word evidence as this word can be used after it happens and i am giving an opinion. You are saying what otjher people are not saying but none of them want it to happen as it costs too much which is why the UK want out. I expect it will be ramped-up in the coming Months if the US president decides to pay the visit he mentioned recently.

Have you no opinion of your own MM said, SF said...

SF are really passengers, the UK quite simply have to get the assembly running with SF first minister. This must and will happen in my view.

Had a quick look at the article you mention, nothing new there, no mention of the protocol which for me is the key. There is lots of evidence of the funding that you said does not exist.

getoutadodge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120047893#Comment_120047893

The writer (Frank Schnittger) openly acknowledged the danger of using GDP alone and sought to bring a whole range of metrics to make his case. But keep on sneering. I went on a visit to Belfast last summer after an absence of thirty years and, notwithstanding the obvious gains of 25 years of peace, it reminded me of dreary 1980s Dublin compounded by lingering sectarianism. Yeah...Ireland has many many failings which we should constantly call out in the hope of improvement...but imagine the shame and indignity of growing up in a place that never had the balls to "strike for freedom". But in your world of pennies and cents that has no value.

facehugger99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120049151#Comment_120049151

The people of Belfast are no less free than the people of Dublin

Your colonial mindset prevents you from seeing it.

And yes, the North is a bit of a financial basket case.

That's kinda my point.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120048584#Comment_120048584

The people of Tyrone never wished to be ruled from London.

asdfg22

oWe should do a comparasion between North/South in overall living standard of living. Housing/availability, food basket . and anything else people here suggest. I honestly do not know i remember sitting next to a teacher from NI on a flight about 2 years ago. He told me the teacher on same grade in South getting nearly twice his salary...

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120048601#Comment_120048601

It's already happening.

The European Commission has approved, under EU State aid rules, Northern Ireland's map for granting regional aid from 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2027.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120050866#Comment_120050866

It used to be USA vs Mexico or West Germany vs East Germany, but IIRC the ratio is now South Korea vs North Korea.

asdfg22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120052127#Comment_120052127

Thanks i was not aware it was already happening but this fits with what i have being thinking since the dispute over the protocol.

Basically i have always thought Boris knew the protocol likely cause problems when the checks became real, the people in NI thought they were going to have all the benefits of EU and nothing was going to change until they couldn't get the M&S sausages. Personally i think it was a masterstroke, then SF have first minister and a completely new game.

This will be an interesting year for this Island.

asdfg22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120052136#Comment_120052136

Actually thats a very good idea... a WALL like in Scotland and Trump built an illegal wall in Clare... we give him the contract as the yanks don't want him, we will be looking for a pres in a few years after he has the job done. He might be even able to link it up with the wall in Scotland.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120052127#Comment_120052127

That is pennies. Nothing close to the €10bn hole before we harmonise social welfare rates and add another big bill.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120049919#Comment_120049919

Well the referendum in 1974 confirmed the union.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120054559#Comment_120054559

Think about it. The EU is pumping money into a country that has left the EU and is currently in dispute with them over the NIP. Which suggest that as part of the EU and able to qualify for regional development it might get more ?

274,178 of the inhabitants of Dublin were born abroad. Compare that to DUP support. Compare that to NI students studying abroad and then living abroad.

NI could be looked at as a large pool of workers being held back by the UK economy and lack of infrastructure. There's only 3 train stations West of the Bann and one of them is the second largest city and the roads to it have still have singe lanes even if parts have been upgraded.

It's unlikely that the people of Derry will have a motorway or university before reunification. With infrastructure it could serve a large cross-border hinterland as a port and airport. Which would also boost Donegal.

The economic argument is as NI is brought up to our levels of employment it will be self financing, and if we do nothing the gap will widen and whatever the cost now it will be worse in future.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120054965#Comment_120054965

Part of NI problem is poor governance. Conor Murphy has been a disaster. Who's to say that in a United Ireland that poor governance wouldn't just continue.

Maybe SF should try to fix the economy in Northern Ireland first and then consider unity when it is more affordable? If they can't make a fist of it as part of the uk you'd hardly have confidence in them to make a go of it in a UI.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120055102#Comment_120055102

How exactly are SF going to fix the economy on their own ?

No majority and no partners , no money and dependence on outside assistance is against their religion.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120055102#Comment_120055102

If SF did actually fix NI's economy, the net result would be a significant reduction in the UK Gov subvention, so it would be a bit like a tenant improving the gaff for the landlord to put up the rent.

It would take a decade to get the west of the Ban to reach the levels of prosperity of Galway, Limerick and Cork. Perhaps much more to rival Dublin.

The EU have funding streams that would help largely with that, and the UK could be persuaded to help - though not without some benefit to them elsewhere. Again the EU could have a few carrots to feed their donkeys in the ruling parties.

Remember, there are the 'Three Is' in USA politics - the Irish, the Italians, and Israel. Their influence could well help - particularly in an election year.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120055124#Comment_120055124

"Dependence on outside assistance is against their religion"

I thought the EU/US were going to fund a UI !

They are the largest party in the Assembly, unless you think it is a charade surely you see they have some influence on the economy.

To be honest I wouldn't be that well versed on NI politics, would this be a fair assessment of Murphy as finance MLA?

https://sluggerotoole.com/2021/05/26/why-conor-murphys-budget-is-failing-our-people/

Bit of a dig in there too, Murphy should of been kicked out over the Paul Quinn debacle but his performance in office hardly justify his position.

"And I say this to the Sinn Fein finance minister. He should be more than the pawn delivering on behalf of the British government. He needs to be bold, to be a leader, to think for himself, do more than just accept the way things have been done in the past and the way the British government wants him to act."

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120055275#Comment_120055275

SF may be the biggest party but they still don't have a majority. They still don't have willing partners. Stormont is still closed.

I just can't see how NI sorts itself out even if the main parties there joined forces because the Tories are slashing budgets left right and centre. If the economy improved the subsidy would be reduced.

kazamo

The EU funding streams will be focused on the rebuilding of the Ukraine when the war is finally ended.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120055313#Comment_120055313

If they worked with their budgets better, the amount of subsidy would reduce and also the amount needed in the event of a UI would also reduce.

The SF/IRA tactic of making NI a failed state is only hurting themselves. The polls show little appetite in Ireland for funding NI if unity becomes a realistic prospect.

asdfg22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120054559#Comment_120054559

There will be huge cuts in civilm service in a UI. The cozy little regimes North and South be gone. There will be big saving there. The north will have access to the multi-nationals i expect. It will take about 10 years to evolve.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120056094#Comment_120056094

You do know the NI workforce is disproportionately made up of PS workers?

Good luck getting them and their families to vote for a UI with mass PS redundancies. Doubt unity would have much support from the unions in Ireland either in such a scenario.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120056137#Comment_120056137

Well, you could say NI is short of opportunities for employment in industry and non-public service work. Also, there is a major need for PS workers in Ireland, such as planning, and other admin work.

It is likely that Irish based multi-national businesses will open up in NI (particularly with incentives) and could be attractive to current PS employees.

A UI should be seen as a win-win for all involved.

50 years ago, Ireland joined the EEC and have not looked back. Why should NI joining Ireland not be seen as a huge adventure with mostly economic upsides.