Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

Grassey

A United British Isles 🤣🤣🤣🤣

Fionn1952

The, 'a random poster on the internet can't present a fully planned out multigenerational economic plan and forecast therefore it doesn't work' type of arguments are a ridiculous strawman.

This sort of in depth planning and forecasting is way beyond rational expectations for a single poster on a random thread on the internet.....and when it's coming from someone who's own grasp of socioeconomics and politics seems to be parroting whatever Brexit propaganda nonsense they read in The Daily Express, or a blend of the twitter accounts of Arlene Foster, David Frost and Jamie Bryson, well it is particularly egregious.

Brendan Bendar

Excellent post, reality has risen in this thread.

Should be obvious to anyone with a modicum of cop on.

redlough

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120275743#Comment_120275743

FYI it doesn't matter how many parties in the Rep want a United Ireland, or in the North.

First off the people of Northern Ireland have to agree to it in the majority

Second off the people of the Rep of Ireland have to agree to it in the majority

Based on recent polls that is not happening anytime soon, especially when you ask the question correctly and tell the people of the Rep they will be hit withe additional taxes.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120276352#Comment_120276352

A poll without a plan isn't really worth considering by anyone but those who don't want a UI. Unionists cheer the results in the same way.

In actual fact, the polling numbers are extremely high in favour given there is nothing tangible to vote for. An Independence referendum was granted in Scotland when support was only at 32%.

A SoS could in theory make the case that in his/her belief a poll would pass. Just depends on what suits the British at any given time.

P.S. It will matter a great deal that all parties in the South support a UI come a BP. Those who are against a UI and committed Partitionists will have an unrelenting negative campaign ahead of them.

Brendan Bendar

He heh he….Pádraig O Siochain out in West Belfast know full well what side his bread is buttered on..

I’ll leave it at that…….

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120276264#Comment_120276264

If that is the case, then a random poster can't go around claiming it will be all right on the night and "building a new Ireland" will solve all our problems. That can be called out for the fantasy that it is.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120277967#Comment_120277967

random poster can't go around claiming it will be all right on the night

Which 'random poster' has said this?

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120277980#Comment_120277980

If you look in the mirror Francie, you will see the person who has spent many thousands of posts advocating a United Ireland, dismissing any threat of violence that may erupt as a result of same, dismissing the fears of unionists, failing to come up with a plan and a page ago on this very thread you wrote "As I have said before, I will leave the financial aspect to experts and will not discuss it with random people on the internet".

Sure it will be all right on the night Francie. The financial aspect is crucial Francie because many people both North and South have spent decades trying to build a decent life for themselves and their children and hopefully grandchildren, and would not wish it to go down the pan.

Take the case of Argentina for example. It is huge in natural resources, and was once a colony of Spain. During the first three decades of the 20th century, Argentina outgrew Canada and Australia in population, total income, and per capita income.  By 1913, Argentina was the world's 10th wealthiest state per capita. Up until 1962 the Argentine per capita GDP was higher than that of Austria, Italy, Japan, and of its former colonial master, Spain. However, since then, the country has defaulted on its debt nine times; inflation has sometimes reached nearly 100%. Between 1930 and 1980 Argentina fell from being one of the wealthiest countries in the world to ranking with the less-developed nations. Many of the country's leaders have had a socialist ideology as their political framework within Argentina. Currently, 37% of people live below the poverty line in Argentina and are struggling due to the inconsistency of prices and jobs from inflation and changes in unemployment. Argentina's longstanding practice of having the central bank print money to finance public spending is the main driver of inflation....to be honest, I would not be surprised if S.F. done the same. The party, lets face it, has emerged from a part of the world, West Belfast, where one in 4 adults are on disability benefit. It does not transparently elect its leader, Mary Lou. Was she appointed from Belfast in secret by the powers to be?

 We cannot or should not rely on the US or the EU to prop us up if things go wrong. Many Americans could not place Ireland on a map of the world, and care less. Germany , as we saw was depending on energy from Russia. It and a few others cannot be expected to prop up the rest of the 28 EU states indefinetely, many of whom have unsustainable borrowings. Sinn Féin long opposed European integration, but now describes itself as "critical, but supportive, of the EU". Another U turn. During the armed struggle, and cold war period, Republicans were friendly with Russia. A bit like during WW2 they had links (Sean Russell etc ) with the Nazis in Germany. As far back as 2015, Sinn Féin abstained from a European Parliament resolution that condemned human rights abuses in Russia. In 2018, party leader Mary Lou McDonald claimed Ireland had breached its military neutrality when it expelled a Russian diplomat. With the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, questions still remain over Sinn Féin's relationship with the Putin regime.

Could we really trust a U.I. with Republicans like that in charge? Just my "twopence", I am as entitled to my view as Francie or anyone else are to theirs, and vice versa.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120278178#Comment_120278178

I have clearly said at all times that a UI will be a challenge, that it will face all that we face at the moment and more in the short to medium term etc and that it requires a detailed plan. I have never said 'it will be alright on the night' ever.

As to the views of 'random internet posters' on the costs. For years we have listened to the 10, 11, 12 billion instant year on year 'cost' being the headline figure.

Now we know that that is not the true figure and adjustments have to be made for costs not accruing to NI if it isn't in the UK anymore.

The random posters were found out by that, they'll never admit it, but there you go. The fallacy of non expert views.

I choose not to take part in that back and forth because it is as pointless as it is inaccurate.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120278243#Comment_120278243

So you say it will be a challenge Francie? Do try harder, as the fellows who ruined economies and countries in Argentina, Zimbabwe, Venezuala etc said that as well before they took over. My points still stand:

"The financial aspect is crucial Francie because many people both North and South have spent decades trying to build a decent life for themselves and their children and hopefully grandchildren, and would not wish it to go down the pan.

Take the case of Argentina for example. It is huge in natural resources, and was once a colony of Spain. During the first three decades of the 20th century, Argentina outgrew Canada and Australia in population, total income, and per capita income. By 1913, Argentina was the world's 10th wealthiest state per capita. Up until 1962 the Argentine per capita GDP was higher than that of Austria, Italy, Japan, and of its former colonial master, Spain. However, since then, the country has defaulted on its debt nine times; inflation has sometimes reached nearly 100%. Between 1930 and 1980 Argentina fell from being one of the wealthiest countries in the world to ranking with the less-developed nations. Many of the country's leaders have had a socialist ideology as their political framework within Argentina. Currently, 37% of people live below the poverty line in Argentina and are struggling due to the inconsistency of prices and jobs from inflation and changes in unemployment. Argentina's longstanding practice of having the central bank print money to finance public spending is the main driver of inflation....to be honest, I would not be surprised if S.F. done the same. The party, lets face it, has emerged from a part of the world, West Belfast, where one in 4 adults are on disability benefit. It does not transparently elect its leader, Mary Lou. Was she appointed from Belfast in secret by the powers to be?

 We cannot or should not rely on the US or the EU to prop us up if things go wrong. Many Americans could not place Ireland on a map of the world, and care less. Germany , as we saw was depending on energy from Russia. It and a few others cannot be expected to prop up the rest of the 28 EU states indefinetely, many of whom have unsustainable borrowings. Sinn Féin long opposed European integration, but now describes itself as "critical, but supportive, of the EU". Another U turn. During the armed struggle, and cold war period, Republicans were friendly with Russia. A bit like during WW2 they had links (Sean Russell etc ) with the Nazis in Germany. As far back as 2015, Sinn Féin abstained from a European Parliament resolution that condemned human rights abuses in Russia. In 2018, party leader Mary Lou McDonald claimed Ireland had breached its military neutrality when it expelled a Russian diplomat. With the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, questions still remain over Sinn Féin's relationship with the Putin regime.

Could we really trust a U.I. with Republicans like that in charge? "

FrancieBrady

"The financial aspect is crucial Francie because many people both North and South have spent decades trying to build a decent life for themselves and their children and hopefully grandchildren, and would not wish it to go down the pan.

Totally agree. That's why I wouldn't guess at figures and will await the expert opinion of the actual stakeholders. Not the opinions of those who are against the idea from the start and who need to find a negative. e.g. as they did with the subvention.

That particular issue will have to be thrashed out with the British, who have not, as yet, clearly outlined what that figure involves as well as many other issues that will need addressing and agreeing.

You are also making another huge assumption in order to find a negative from your point of view - there is absolutely no certainty that SF 'will be in charge' in a UI. It's more likely that a rainbow coalition will lead a UI at the outset, that will, if they embrace it, include Unionists and even Alliance members at the heart of decision making.

kazamo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120276368#Comment_120276368

Your last point interests me…….why would it matter a great deal whether all political parties in the South support a UI ?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120278477#Comment_120278477

Practicalities.

With all political parties in favour, those in favour of continuing partition will have to mount a relentlessly negative campaign.

You will have belligerent anti-Irish Unionists/Loyalists latching onto that campaign, whether they like it or not, quoting and echoing whoever fronts that campaign, and I don't think that will go down well in the south.

They will be seen as allies in the politics of it all, if not in any agreed formal form.

kazamo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120278546#Comment_120278546

With all the political parties on one side of the equation, it leaves a wide open space for anyone in the South to raise legitimate questions on panels. Since the McKenna judgement, all panels will have to be balanced and the politicians will be subject to scrutiny on the economics of this debate.

I don’t agree that anyone with concerns about this proposal, needs to run a negative campaign.

All they need to do is question the politician’s numbers and after their party political broadcast, simply point out that, every five years, all election manifestos are built the best possible scenarios and when they take up office, they quickly state….oh it’s much different than we thought, despite attending Dept of Finance briefings.

Unlike you, I don’t see all the politicians lined up one one side as necessarily a good thing……..they didn’t forecast the Celtic tiger, the crash, the troika weren’t coming, oh they’re here now but it’s the cheapest bailout, inflation will erode the debt quickly.

And it’s this lot you expect to provide a united coherent front with a credible blueprint on how this will unfold over a 10-20 year period after voting it in.

With this Border Poll/Referendum it will be unlike most that preceded it. It’s a combined political and economic question.

The political side is squared off in the South, the economics of 5m people taking on a 2m people “project”…..that’s where this will be decided.

facehugger99

Very easy to be in favor of something that has zero chance of happening in the next 20 years.

As a SF supporter you should be very used to abrupt policy changes when the wind changes direction.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120278903#Comment_120278903

I didn't say there will be a 'united front' at all. I said they will all be in favour from their own party political standpoints and if they convince the majority of their own support that will be more than enough.

They will all couch it in positive terms from their differing political stand points and the opposite of that is 'negative'.

There is a reason that no anti UI politician of substance has so far emerged in the south and it is for the above reasons + the prospect of who they will be allied with, rightly or wrongly IMO

And again, I don't see a single one of those parties framing it as 'taking on' something.

You asked and that is my view. Not going to argue it.

Brendan Bendar

It’s a non runner in my opinion, Middle Ireland can see the issues and would’nt touch it with a barge pole for at least 30 years.

Only the idealistic mystics and the scatther brained scunners with nothing to lose will keep banging the drum and try to

drive the country over a cliff.

Long way to go yet.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120278903#Comment_120278903

If we ever get to the stage that all of the political parties are lined up calling for a yes vote in a referendum on a united Ireland, then there will have been an awful lot of water under the bridge, perhaps 30 years worth of water. It might make sense then.

However, there isn't a chance of all political parties lining up this decade even in favour of holding a referendum, let alone all lined up in favour of it.

Remember, there is a huge dollop of desperation about, the Protocol will make Northern Ireland an attractive place to invest, being the only place with dual access to UK and EU markets, something that a united Ireland will destroy. A prosperous Northern Ireland benefitting from dual access is a republican's nightmare as it makes a united Ireland go away for good.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120279852#Comment_120279852

TBH, the only people having nightmares about the Protocol are Unionists and we know why that is.

ittakestwo

The economic argument is scaremongering. The south has no resources that the north doesn’t have. Infact at the time of partition all the money in Ireland was in the north. The south changed very quickly in the 90's cant see why the north couldn't if it was on the same level playing field. People talk of the defcit of the north like it is permanent...... absolutely nothing in economics is permanent and higly dynamic. It has the seconds largest city with two airports and good road infrastructure. Also all ready there is an all Ireland economy taking shape. Alot of people cross the border to go to work. Wfh will also increase this with the younger generations.

Nearly all people when we say we are irish are referring we are from Ireland rather than the ROI. People from the north are just as irish as people from the south so why not have us in one jurisdiction is the main argument for reunification. However the GFA has taken away a lot of the need for unification. People in the north and south can travel freely around Ireland hold irish citizenship. We even see now a border has to be placed in the irish sea before there can be one on land so the motive to change the status que has been reduced.

KennyBelfast

Hey i am a loyalist from Belfast can some of you UI supporters explain how this is gonna work and how the country as a whole is gonna be better off? SF go on about how this new Ireland will be so good yet give no information on what it will be like or how well be better off.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120279944#Comment_120279944

People from the North are more likely to be British than Irish, recognition of that is fundamental to moving forward.

Having us in the one jurisdiction "just because" is not sufficient of an argument for a united Ireland.

However, the economic argument isn't just scaremongering. The economy of the North was wrecked by a 25-year terrorist campaign. It was not alone, just look what violence did to places like Lebanon and Syria. There is an economic price to be paid for the activities of mainly the PIRA. The remaining elements of violence - the "good" republican assassination attempt of a police officer yesterday being one example - are still lingering like a very bad smell and the first thing needed is for the communities in the North to step up and say enough is enough in that regard.

Integration within Northern Ireland first is needed before we can consider integration with the South - it demonstrates proof of concept before we move forward.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120279944#Comment_120279944

The economic argument is scaremongering.

That's kinda my point. Whether it is or not it will be very difficult for anti UI campaigners not to make it sound like scaremongering.

The other thing is, the vast vast majority were not responsible for what happened in NI, the insults and depiction of ordinary people as some sort of sub human class that are beneath us, will not play well and will come across as ultra negative and approach hate speech.

It will be a difficult campaign to navigate for those on the anti side IMO.

kazamo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120278964#Comment_120278964

In the marriage equality and abortion referendums all parties bar maybe one, we’re all in favour of the proposal. And yet 700k voted against each of those proposals, which were social policy changes.

UI is an economic referendum whether you like it or not, and when the amount of money in your pocket is impacted by a vote, politicians rhetoric and waffle is replaced by economic self-interest.

Re no anti UI politician has emerged……when we do get to vote on this, the majority of the current politicians will no longer be in Dáil Éireann. So why would anyone start campaigning on something over a decade away…….apart from you of course 😄

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120280482#Comment_120280482

Come on..seriously?

The RC church was not a factor and akin to a major party in those refs?

Those referendums still passed.

No politician has emerged who has a partitionist platform and I honestly cannot see it happening either.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120280351#Comment_120280351

I'd just point out that the NI economy was in decline well before the first Provo bullet was fired.

I'd also suggest you give yourself a refresher on who fired the first shots of the Troubles.

None of this justifies the Provo campaign of course, but putting the responsibility for the shitshow that is the NI economy entirely on Republicanism.....well that's just your own, 'blame everything on the Shinners' bias kicking in, Blanch.

I'd also suggest that pointing out isolated incidences of criminal violence in NI to paint it as some sort of gangland reeks a bit of looking for the speck in your brother's eye, particularly coming from someone living in Dublin. The antics of the Hutch and Kinehan crowd put anything the, 'I can't believe it's not IRA' rabble have got up to since the Omagh bombing.

kazamo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120280503#Comment_120280503

Why are you bringing the RC church into this ?

The referendums passed and rightly so, but the fact that political parties were in favour it, didn’t stop a lot of people voting contrary to their wishes.

And it was on issues that the majority of people who voted yes, won’t be impacted by. So it was a vote without a financial cost.

UI Referendum is an economic referendum, personal interest trumps whatever “feel good factor that we are all together” that you wish to promote.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120280723#Comment_120280723

The RC church were a massive influence. It's an unfair comparison for that reason.

And if you think that there will not be a very strong historical and (to use a word that seems to anger some) emotional imperative guiding people, that would be a mistake too. We don't have a constitutional aspiration for no reason. Every political party will support it for the same reason too.

Happy for the anti side to make that mistake though.

Sam Russell

The one element in this discussion that has been completely omitted is the attitude of the UK Gov to their desire to be out of NI.

Perhaps a future UK Gov would be delighted to rid themselves of the burdensome, troublesome, expensive, ungrateful little bit of the North East of the island of Ireland.

Was it Cakmeron who said the British Gov has no strategic interest in NI?