Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120368645#Comment_120368645

Fear that they will never see consistent polling showing unity likely to pass has led to this. The GFA is clear. BP only if likely to pass.

Maybe it's time to renegotiate the GFA but until then it should be respected.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120368645#Comment_120368645

No, you really cannot say that.

Because when a poll is called there will be an imperative to have a plan/White Paper.

That drastically changed polling in the Scottish Referendum. From 32% in favour when the ref was called to almost winning the vote and only lost because the British establishment mounted a campaign at the last minute. They won't be doing that here.

A poll after a plan is presented is what we need to see,

namloc1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120368675#Comment_120368675

Nah you're grand. You can't use the same poll for one purpose and then ignore the other glaring part of it. 🙄

We have more than enough to deal with in this country than wasting time and money on white papers and the likes. There's no desire for a UI in the North right now. Time is on the side of it happening but forcing it in the next few years is stupid.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120368674#Comment_120368674

Maybe you need to re-educate on this and look at the court challenge and what the British courts found.

The SoS does not have to evidence a decision on a poll. He can take it for political expediency or any other reason. Some Unionists think that is where we are headed.

We need to prepare.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120368695#Comment_120368695

And if it was obvious that it wasn't likely to pass I suspect unionists would refuse to partake and who could blame them. Using a legal technicality to get a BP is not a good look or omen for sucess.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120368736#Comment_120368736

Unionists don't have a veto anymore, haven't you heard?

There is no legal 'technicality', there is the law though. He/she can call one at any time. Who's to say if Unionist actions won't result in the British saying 'well, we wish to proceed with Brexit and you are preventing this, let's ask the people of NI to decide'. It's a perfectly reasonable solution for a government that has accepted that 'it is the Irish people's right to decide their own fate without outside impediment'.

Most reasonable people (including British ones) would have assumed that a country with a constitutional aspiration to unity would have a unity plan by now. The British will move on a Border Poll when it is politically expedient for them to do it.

You don't want to read the signals, but as pointed out, many believe they are pushing NI away ATM. Hence the Unionist siege mentality. The question is, are we going to be caught with pants down on this?

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120368748#Comment_120368748

Based on the polls we have nothing to be concerned about just yet. Lets see what the polls are like after a few years of the Windsor Framework.

I do see desperation on the side of those demanding a BP, they see the lack of support for unity and see an unexpected BP as the only hope.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120368757#Comment_120368757

Well you keep believing.

Brendan Bendar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120368748#Comment_120368748

What a load of rubbish..

As soon as the needle slips into the Nationalist favour the dreamers and economic idealists want to go full force plugging a campaign for a UI.

Tney in their cups think that everything will slide into place and everything will be hunky dory.

The good republicans seem to think they can import almost half a disgruntled and semi disgruntled population without any problems!!!

Thats all they worry about…… God help us all !!!!!

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120370098#Comment_120370098

The good republicans seem to think they can import almost half a disgruntled and semi disgruntled population without any problems!!!

Factually incorrect.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120370098#Comment_120370098

Load of rubbish doesn't half cover it. A pile of sh!te.

The SOS can't hold a border referendum unless it is likely to pass. All the courts have said is that the tests for that cannot be set in advance. We now have posters nonsensically claiming that this means the SOS can hold a referendum anytime he wishes. That is right up there with the unicorns and rainbows paying for a united Ireland as fantastical nonsense.

If the SOS decided today that a GFA border referendum should be held next week, his referendum would be thrown out of court by a court ttomorrow on the basis that he had acted in an illegal and irrational manner by failing to demonstrate that the test had been met. All the original court decision did was say that the test could not be set in advance, it did not say it couldn't be injuncted afterwards. And remember, courts enforce the law, they don't pay the slightest bit of attention to an opinion poll that says people want a border poll, they will only be interested in whether the SOS has rationally formed an opinion and can justify it.

Every single time this issue comes up, we have the same old nonsense from the same old posters misinterpreting a court decision.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120368757#Comment_120368757

Those who want a border poll are particularly desperate at this point in time. The Windsor Protocol gives NI the best of all worlds, with access to both the UK and EU markets. A united Ireland takes away from that. Over the next few years, as the Windsor Protocol improves the economy of NI, expect support for a united Ireland to decrease.

The problem is that the good republicans have not gone away. I fully expect them to revert to type over the next few years. With the economy of NI improving, and the everyday life of people up there getting better, they will resort to terrorism again, to destroy people's lives, make them miserable and to try and intimidate a united Ireland. That is the sad reality of the nature of good republicanism.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120382610#Comment_120382610

This has been fact checked so many times. The SoS's decision is unqualified, as found by British courts.

He dismissed the challenge, holding that there is no legal obligation on the minister to have a defined policy in place.

"The precise circumstances and the political context of a decision are variable and highly political," he said.

"Decision-making in this area requires a political assessment on the part of the Secretary of State and in this context political flexibility and judgment are called for.

"In such a context I am wholly unpersuaded by the argument that the Secretary of State is bound to be bound by a policy detailing the way in which that flexible and politically sensitive power is bound to be exercised."

Mr Justice Girvan added: "In essence it must be for the Secretary of State to decide what matters should be taken into account on the political question of the appropriateness of a poll."

McCord loses challenge over border poll call (rte.ie)

In April 2018, the High Court ruled against Raymond McCord, who brought a judicial review attempting to compel the Secretary of State to publish the government’s policy around when it would call a border poll. As part of that ruling, the court highlighted the clear distinction between the discretionary aspect of the Secretary of State’s power and obligation upon the Secretary of State to invoke it should certain circumstances arise. In paragraph 18, on page 11, Justice Girvan confirms (my emphasis) :

In the present case the Secretary of State is given a discretionary power to order a border poll under Schedule 1 paragraph 1 even where she is not of the view that it is likely that the majority of voters would vote for Northern Ireland to cease to be part of the United Kingdom and to become part of a united Ireland […] the discretionary power as opposed to the mandatory duty to call a poll could be exercised by the Secretary of State for a number of different reasons and in different circumstances.

For example, the Secretary of State could call a poll in order to give a quietus to the controversial question of a united Ireland for a period of time if she thinks that a majority would vote in favour of remaining in the United Kingdom.

She could direct such a poll if there was a doubt in her mind as to whether a majority was to be found on one side or the other.

She could decide to call such a poll if persuaded by political representatives that it would be desirable to sound the people out on the issue or to close the issue for a number of years.

The precise circumstances and the political context of a decision are variable and highly political.

Later, Mr McCord sought to appeal the ruling’s denial of his claim, with the ruling on appeal being handed down in April 2020, with Justices Stephens, Treacy and Colton upholding the 2018 ruling. On the topic of the Secretary of State’s powers, they reiterated (my emphasis) :

The discretionary power to hold a border poll could be exercised lawfully for a broad range of reasons, irrespective of whether the duty to do so arose and even if it was believed that a majority might vote to remain part of the United Kingdom or if there was doubt about the issue. These could include giving a quietus to the issue for a period of time. The precise circumstances and context are variable and depend upon the exercise of complex political judgments which requires flexibility.

A border poll can be held at any time – redux – Slugger O'Toole (sluggerotoole.com)

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120382761#Comment_120382761

The answer is in the first line you quote.

"There is no legal obligation on the minister to have a defined policy in place".

That is all the court found, nothing more than that. Extrapolating that into the fantasy that the SoS can call a GFA border poll at any time unchallenged is silliness.

Of course the SoS or the British government can call a non-GFA border poll at any time. In fact, I have argued on here for quite some time that such a possibility is quite logical and the best way to go about a united Ireland. A non-GFA border poll, if passed, would be followed by discussions and negotiations about the future of a united Ireland, following which a binding GFA poll would be held, with the full information in front of the public, North and South. What better way for a SoS to react the conclusion that a GFA border poll is likely to pass than holding a non-GFA border poll, thrashing out the details of a united Ireland, and then having the GFA border poll to confirm it?

I am leaving the argument there, the court judgement has been explained to you many many times, no point in addressing it further. Everything you have quoted fully supports my position.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120383975#Comment_120383975

😁😁😁 'A non GFA border Poll'?????

The court found more than what you claim:

The discretionary power to hold a border poll could be exercised lawfully for a broad range of reasons, irrespective of whether the duty to do so arose and even if it was believed that a majority might vote to remain part of the United Kingdom or if there was doubt about the issue. These could include giving a quietus to the issue for a period of time. The precise circumstances and context are variable and depend upon the exercise of complex political judgments which requires flexibility.

*Bolding is mine.

I.E. In plain English, The SOS can call a Border Poll for 'a broad number of reasons'

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120384092#Comment_120384092

Yes, but a border poll held for any reason, other than meeting the test set out in the GFA, is a non-GFA border poll.

Nobody has ever denied that the British government can hold a border poll tomorrow if they want, and another one next week too. However, to hold a border poll under the terms of the GFA, certain tests must be met, and a minimum gap of seven years between them.

Why they would hold a non-GFA border poll is beyond me, but it is possible. Politically, any British government is better off denying that the conditions have been met and refusing to hold a border poll.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120384230#Comment_120384230

blanch, the case was taken about the terms of the GFA.

Here is the Appeal Court findings.

As you can see it relates to the SoS criteria for a BP under the GFA

It is clear in it's findings.

Raymond McCord’s Application Border Poll.pdf (judiciaryni.uk)

Francis McM

Who cares, the conditions for a Border Poll have not been met and the governments are correct in refusing to hold a border poll.

There are other more important matters, like the housing crises, like hospital waiting lists and people on trollies in hospitals here in the Republic.

Also, much to our shame, Irish people are among the biggest users of cocaine in the world, according to a new report by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNDOC). We are in the top 4 countries in the world for cocaine use. No wonder the Americans are stunned when they see open drug use on the streets of our capital. We have lots of other things to do do to get our house in order before taking over N.I., worrying about another border poll. There was one in the early seventies in N.I. and it showed overwhelming support for staying in the union - even if those who did not vote ( who "boycotted" it because they were afraid of democracy ) voted for a UI - the majority still voted to stay in the UK.

Brendan Bendar

There are dreamers and idealists out there Francis, who see nothing of problems you rightly highlight.

Only one aim in their sights …a border poll… they have little interest in anything else .

Be aware of those Francis, nothing to lose dreamers.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120384631#Comment_120384631

The 'conditions for a border poll' are unqualified.

Read the court judgement.

The SoS could technically call one at anytime.

Is it negligent to be unprepared for this. Yes IMO.

Brendan Bendar

Reality is the best condition of a Border Poll…….long way away.

Dazler97

Yes we need a united Ireland 🇮🇪 but obviously there'd have to be something in place for the unionists because it won't work otherwise, not all of them would move to England etc , I'd say social welfare could go down to 200 a week if the north was to join us , I mean your talking about 2 million on top of our population

eire4

It will be interesting to see how things move opinion wise as brexit and its harsh economic realities and the benefits of full EU membership become easier to see sink in over the next few years especially as covid is no longer there to hide the economic damage behind. Even the talk of border polls in recent years and the uptick in such is IMHO a direct result of brexit. When an actual vote on Irish reunification actually takes place none of us know but I think brexit has firmly put it on the front burner now.

maccored

can anyone tell me how we can discuss the cost of a united ireland without having a nationwide discussion on what all involved might think it might look like?

Its a bit like asking a building contractor how much your house will cost without anyone discussing or planning what kind of house you want

Sam Russell

There are too many trolls that take it off topic.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120594400#Comment_120594400

Certain aspects could be estimated. Take social welfare, easy find out how many receive it in NI so wouldn't be hard to calculate how much would be required to keep the current levels in NI and to match our levels to give us a range for that cost. Same can be done for pensions and public service pay.

The costs for different scenarios can easily be done now, the difficulty is deciding how it would be funded and what level of unity tax/contribution may be required depending on what help comes our way.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120595306#Comment_120595306

The costs of running a country are the costs.

Nobody would suggest the costs of running the south are not worth it.

If we took that attitude we would still be in the UK.

If you can 'easily' project the costs...have at it. How much?

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120595347#Comment_120595347

We have this thing in Ireland called a budget were costs of running the country are leveraged against income. It's not an "attitude" it's how countries are run.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120595354#Comment_120595354

Exactly, so tell us how the costs of a UI will be leveraged against the extra income that will be generated from a UI?

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120595363#Comment_120595363

Well according to the SF website in 10 yrs the GDP of the Island may increase, if global economics remain static!, by 35bn. For an instant 30% increase in population with only a 10% increase in GDP in total over 10 years, a substantial "investment" from the general public may be required .