Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120595408#Comment_120595408

So this 'easy' calculation depends on something you learned might happen on a SF webpage?

2 years ago we didn't know we would have a 65bn surplus to work with. In 2015 we didn't know that the UK would vote to harm itself economically etc.

When we fought for and achieved independence we didn't know if we could survive as an independent country, at times it cost our citizens a lot but would we vote to revert to a colony of the UK? No we wouldn't, because the benefits far outweigh the costs.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120595426#Comment_120595426

Francie , no point in discussing the merits of a UI, we both know where we stand.

But it is complete BS to say we can't predict the costs. The data is available to anyone wishing to. The number of people on the dole, in the PS and drawing a pension is known. For gods sake the British branch of SF have the finance job in NI!

Funny how those who want a UI have no issue with predictions on the benefits only the costs.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120595453#Comment_120595453

You are the one saying this stuff is 'easy'.

So where is your projected budget where, the 'costs of running the country are leveraged against income'. 

And please don't ask me to produce one, I have not made claims that this is 'easy' to do.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120595534#Comment_120595534

We've had this nonsense before, what secret information is preventing those who want a UI from predicting the extra costs of social welfare,pensions and PS pay?

You are saying it can't be done without giving a single reason why not.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120595878#Comment_120595878

Where did I say 'it cannot be done?'

I said it was not an easy thing to do. And a random internet person working from a negative bias won't do it just as somebody working from a positive bias won't either.

What is required is discussion among all stakeholders and then come up with a buget with the 'costs of running the country are leveraged against income'

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120596058#Comment_120596058

What if the other stakeholders see no reason to discuss it because there is no evidence that it would be likely to pass? What then?

It's a cop out based on fear. We could produce a range of plans based on worst/best case scenario without the input of the British just to get the ball rolling.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120596157#Comment_120596157

Again, I would ask, why would you waste time and effort to do that when you know the only definitive plan that can be arrived at is the one that engages all the stakeholders first?

There is little that can be done about stakeholders who refuse to take part. That never stops any future planning.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120596189#Comment_120596189

Because there is no momentum towards unity in NI would be one good reason. There needs to be more of a buy - in from Nationalist voters. The current 75% puts it at a major disadvantage to unionism with their >90% support . Unity is losing among the non-aligned too. Get these numbers higher and you wouldn't need the unionist vote.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120596293#Comment_120596293

The momentum will come when the government that represents a constitutional aspiration to unity, gets it's fearful finger out and produce the plan after consultations.

That will happen I believe and parties are moving themselves into position for it. FF by the Shared Island project and FG's change of language around it.

They know they cannot ignore it as they did.

I believe belligerent Unionism sees it too and are running scared.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120595878#Comment_120595878

It can easily be done.

I have produced detailed information on social welfare rates and asked all the advocates for a united Ireland what they would do with them to harmonise. I have only gotten the usual rainbows and unicorns type answers about a new Ireland and starting from a clean page. Like, do they not understand how that will scare the horses? If you go with a clean sheet, your social welfare might be abolished rather than harmonised.

When you get into taxation rates, their brains seem to melt with the confusion. Asking them to pick a VAT rate and VAT exemptions has them in a complete pickle.

These are the simpler things. I have touched on education a little, but it, healthcare, local government etc are whole areas where the United Irelanders just don't have a clue. The gubberment should come up with a plan is the best I've got. Why would they waste money on a plan for something that only a few extremists really want? Once you say reduced social welfare or increased taxes, support for a united Ireland melts away quicker than the tide.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120600526#Comment_120600526

Only a few extremists?

Any detailed data on that one blanch?

Sam Russell

The cost of social welfare depends on how many are in receipt of it. Would a UI reduce or increase unemployment, and increase or reduce poverty?

The public service in NI is a larger proportion of the workforce than the rest of the UK or in Ireland. Would that continue, or would the employment levels in the rest of the economy rise because of increase employment opportunities following a UI? Would significant FDI increase employment?

Would realignment of the public service in a UI lead to efficiencies that would improve the level of public services - not just in NI but in the UI as a whole?

Or would the bean counters insist that no improvements could be allowed because everything in NI must remain as it has always been.

If the projections of the future of joining the EEC in 1973 had been projected 50 years, it would not have forecasted the result we have today.

Can we not have confidence in the future?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120602409#Comment_120602409

Even the Chartered Accountants Of Ireland cannot come up with the costs until the transitional arrangements and sunset clauses are known, But some random interneters can. And curiously their findings are always on the negative side.

Not hard to figure out what is going on there.,

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120602409#Comment_120602409

We should have confidence in the future but not be ignorant to the risks either. If the NI economy isn't fixed then it will drag down what was once a decently performing economy.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120602463#Comment_120602463

There are risks to leaving it as it is too. As we can see.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120602489#Comment_120602489

We should map out all scenarios. What if there is a global recession, what if we can't raise the required investment etc ,what if the benefits take longer to realize.

Reality is that it is possible that the entire island becomes worse off in a UI.

I suspect the referendum commission would cover all possible outcomes if a border poll was called.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120602520#Comment_120602520

Discussion on it now on Nolan.

Interesting points being made about creating a better country that delivers for everyone. 'How to create a better health system than both states currently have', part of the discussion is very good. Alex Kane talking about a growing recognition in Unionism that they aren't getting a great deal in comparison to the rest of the UK.

Sam Russell

The economic future of NI depends on the economic future of Ireland because of the high level of cross border economic activity. That is how it is now, and how it will be for as long as there is a border. How much better for all if that border moves from being invisible to being non-existent.

Remove the border, integrate the two economies, and growth has to follow. That growth is more likely than not to result in a better outcome for all communities on the island.

NI returning to full EU membership has to be beneficial, as it was before Brexit. That has to result on a better life for all in NI.

Why the depressing negative views for the future?

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120602544#Comment_120602544

Unfortunately I've to put up with Dermot and Dave in the office.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120602569#Comment_120602569

Because if we don't do it right then we are all worse off. Also external economic factors could have a negative impact too.

Unity should be discussed wart's and all so people make an informed decision.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120602698#Comment_120602698

Whatever way we do it, we are unlikely to all be worse off - that is never the case. When the sun shines, make hay, and when it rains, sell umbrellas. When life deals you lemons, make lemonade. Some people always make sure they benefit.

External economic factors will affect things anyway - irrespective of any changes wrt UI.

So easy to only see the negative.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120602569#Comment_120602569

That was true until the Protocol.

NI returning to full EU membership would now lose privileged access to the UK market. If the Protocol works over the next few years, then FDI will flow into Northern Ireland to avail of this advantage.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120602735#Comment_120602735

There is a reason Unionism sees the Protocol as a threat to it.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120602735#Comment_120602735

Can you not see the economic advantages that would flow from the efficiencies derived from a UI?

The privileged access to the UK market is to enable them to sell Cumberland sausages and black pudding to GB?

The GB market would be insignificant for NI in a UI that has unfettered access to the whole of the EU, plus all the other markets the has trade deals with the EU.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120602765#Comment_120602765

https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/news-and-events/department-news/2023/february/202302151.html

The UK isn't an insignificant market, even for us. It is 8% of our total exports, and we don't have the access that Northern Ireland does.

The privileged access to both the UK and the EU will be a key marketing tool for attracting FDI to Northern Ireland over the next few years.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120602780#Comment_120602780

Do you not believe that a UK Gov that was agreeing to a UI would not wish to continue the access afforded to NI after a UI? They can allow any type of access they like - either restricted to the 'historic' area of NI or to the whole of the UI - just as the CTA allows free movement for people.

It is not as if the record goods export to the UK would stop just because NI joins in a UI.

A UI would be a better place for trade because the sectarian problems of NI would thus be dealt with by the welcome unification and the final ending of sectarian strife.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120603090#Comment_120603090

The Protocol's existence depends on the dual status of Northern Ireland. It won't exist once Northern Ireland joins the EU, and the EU rules prevent operation of the Protocol. The CTA will die once there is a united Ireland, as we can then join Schengen.

Your last sentence is extremely naive. A settlement only for one side does not end sectarian strife, it exacerbates it. That's why a united Ireland, as envisaged by nationalists, will never work.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120603536#Comment_120603536

That's why a united Ireland, as envisaged by nationalists, will never work.

What 'vision' are you referring to here?

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120603536#Comment_120603536

A UI cannot happen without a majority in NI voting for it, just as they voted for the GFA. The GFA ended the armed violence from both sides. That has to be a good thing in anyone's mind.

Before a majority can vote on a UI, the SoS has to be minded that a poll will pass. He is unlikely to agree to a poll unless the sectarian strife is toned down significantly. The peace walls need to go because they are redundant and that is because the current level of hatred and nastiness based on them'uns getting something has stopped.

We are a long way from that. The WF shows that. The UK Gov has not even implemented the NI Protocol (which they had negotiated and already signed off) and were forced to negotiated a new structure to overcome objections because of problems that were to be easily handled under the original deal.

The only way a UI will come about is when the two sides agree they are better co-operating rather than fighting against each other.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120603637#Comment_120603637

I don't disagree about what needs to happen, but I don't see it happening, I see progress going backwards, with peace walls being reinforced.

However, the GFA maintains a balance because it is neither one side nor the other. The ambiguity over the future is part of that balance.

A united Ireland changes the GFA. It upsets that balance and removes the ambiguity. That recreates the conditions for sectarian strife particularly if there is any level of opposition greater than 45%.