Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120752930#Comment_120752930

Binary thinking again. Step outside the box that you have created for yourself inside exclusionary nationalism and consider other possibilities. That is where solutions to intractable problems like Northern Ireland come from.

The only two options on the table according to binary thinking are hated by substantial minorities on both sides. Neither of the two options, including your boxed-in limited one are tenable solutions.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120752965#Comment_120752965

Your solution is hated so much NOBODY in NI wants it.

Again, staring you in the face is the 100 year reason why that is.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120752983#Comment_120752983

It's not hated, that's why you are so perturbed.

Nobody on either side of a polarised binary situation (and you are clearly on one side of that) goes around promoting a compromise. That compromise never starts off with huge support, but it is where solutions appear.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120753049#Comment_120753049

The 'compromise' has been tried...it doesn't work. Want evidence? Look at what has happened for 25 years.

Nobody will impose a UI, they will convince a majority that that is the way forward. Perfectly democratic activity and your insults will have no effect.

If you want a devolved NI then you have to convince people that that is the way forward. At the moment you are trying by insult and denigration to impose it as a solution. Get out and convince people.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120752274#Comment_120752274

i don’t know the point you are making. There will be no unionists or nationalists in a Ui. There will be Irish, British and northern Irish and combinations of each. If there are enough people in ni who feel northern Irish and want to vote for a devolved OWC which is part of Ui but maintains the special access to gb and the ni identity then I will be hard for the occupiers to resist the will of the majority.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120752887#Comment_120752887

I don’t have a crystal ball but some thoughts: just a guess!

we will have come through an incredibly divisive year or two leading up to actual poll

violence will have kicked off again and that will have included indiscriminate attacks on Dublin shopping / social areas. Sectarian killings will have escalated in ni.

Panic will be spreading through political classes in Ireland about what is happening.

key company directors in south and tourists will be targeted

Tourism will have all but ceased and companies will be talking about relocation

the guards will have completely failed to contain things in the north. The experienced Psni will be handed control and there will be questions of outside military help needed

backchannels will be suggesting that there will be a ceasefire if a temporary devolved government can be set up.

large majority of both Irish and British in ni will be asking for institutions to be set up to deescalate the situation

devolved OWC set up

100years later talk of unification starts again :)

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120754454#Comment_120754454

The wet dream of a handful of g*bshites I'm East Belfast.....who'll be too distracted by their drug dealing to actually do any of the above.

As we've seen recently, they're more concerned with keeping their own under control than anything else.

More loyal to the half-crown than the crown as they say.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120754454#Comment_120754454

We heard all this bravura about the GFA, parades, flags, the Protocol etc about how Loyalist/ unionist violence would stop what was happening.

We know what happened.

Now you think violence will bring a devolved government for you.

I really really am not surprised your political reps are so strategically inept.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120754604#Comment_120754604

I absolutely didn’t say that. You asked a question and I said I would need a crystal ball to answer it but had a guess at how I thought it would turn out.

if you think that either the Uk occupying the six counties against the will of the nationalist minority or the southern Irish occupying OWC against the will of the minority of unionists, has the same potential for orchestrated violence by ‘freedom fighters’ as, say the gfa or drumcree parade, then you are very naive and badly informed.

of course a Ui will be incredibly destabilising and result in significant violence. Will it continue for decades and engross the whole island? I honestly don’t know. Will it dramatically impact tourism and affect inward investment? Yes absolutely it will.

now maybe you will have the balls to answer your own question as well. Tell us how you see things panning out if you get your vote for land of milk and honey?

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120754501#Comment_120754501

do you know how many active Ira there were in in 80s in ni?-100s. The above doesn’t take 1,000s of people directly involved. Half a dozen Michael stones can create the above. Do you know how many members are currently in the loyalist paramilitaries?-1,000s and a Ui (which is centralised and run by southern Irish) will be a recruiting ground for UFF like Bloody Sunday was for IRA.

we have had 25 years in which the majority british populating the 6 counties has accepted powersharing, has accepted this region has its own assembly and first ministers, agreed to all sorts of special legislation to protect the interests of the minority Irish population, etc,etc Granted there was 30 years of sectarian conflict which influenced some of this

why would it be any different in a 6 counties with a majority Irish and Irish overlords in a Ui? My hope is we would skip the 30 years of sectarian conflict to get there

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120757749#Comment_120757749

I've repeatedly argued in favour of protections and support for your culture, Downcow. I've also said that while it isn't my preference, I wouldn't be entirely opposed to some sort of devolution or federal solution. I actually think that, at least short to mid term, a devolved NI is an inevitability. Unification will be a process, not an overnight changing of the guard. There'll be a degree of boiling frogs preventing any major backlash as things happen quite gradually in my opinion.

We've also seen how much of that legislation to protect anything Irish has had to be fought for tooth and nail, often put in place despite the objections of your political representation so don't try pulling the bullsh*t magnanimous majority card with me. You're personally regularly arguing against protection for the Irish language, despite similar legislation existing to protect Welsh and Scots Gaeilge.

Your final sentence about hoping to avoid sectarian conflict is greatly at odds with your last few posts salivating over the idea. Your comparison of a democratically enacted vote for Unification and your armed forces shooting innocent protestors during Bloody Sunday is particularly repulsive.

As for how many active PIRA members there were; numbers are highly disputed on that so we can't really give a reliable number. Estimates on the lower end put it in the hundreds (for active members at least, with a greater number of support 'staff'.) Estimates at the higher end put it at 10,000.

The biggest difference is that the thousands of current Loyalist Paramilitary members are more interested in their drug dealing rackets than politics.....sure the UVF is already working cross border nowadays, cooperating with the Kinahan cartel.

International support is another factor, I can't see the UVF or UDA being able to raise millions in the US, Canada or Australia; 'give us back to the Brits' doesn't have the same ring to it.

Also for consideration is that in the post-9/11 world we live in, even should they be able to generate any support, movement of funds and arms at the sort of scale required for a sustained campaign against the state would be a damn sight more difficult now than 30+ years ago.

I think there is the possibility of isolated incidents of violence, I don't believe for a second that the current Loyalist paramilitaries have the appetite or capacity for a drawn out terrorist campaign akin to the Provos, nor do I expect a United Irish government will give them the same recruiting propaganda as the likes of the civil rights issues, collusion and state forces murder of innocent civilians that unfortunately gave sustenance to the PIRA.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120757816#Comment_120757816

There is a lot in that. Most I disagree with and some I completely agree with.

my comparison of BS and unification was a reaction to Francie comparing the trauma of unification with a band parade, so maybe go back and have a go at him, at least for the pretence of being non-partisan. But now you are on it, I find peoples continual setting of BS above other horrific events in ni as pretty sickening to. At least they were not lined up and divided on religion before all being assassinated, at least they were not taken away and tortured for days, at least they were not visiting a sick child in hospital or bringing their new baby home and were singled out and shot in the back I could go on and on BS was wrong, but stop suggesting it was somehow more wrong that what the ‘soldiers’ celebrated by Finucane last weekend have done.

and I was not salivating. I was answering a question honestly that I was asked (maybe the person that asked it will have the balls to do the same).

was Leo salivating when he held up the photos of our people being murdered? I actually don’t think he was

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120757959#Comment_120757959

An awful heap of Whataboutery, Downcow.

You brought up Bloody Sunday and compared it to Unification, I responded directly to your point. You haven't made a mention of parades, or Francie's posts when you were making that comparison in direct reply to me. You have drawn a comparison between your army shooting innocent civilians and a border poll held via the terms of a 25 year old agreement that the vast majority of your community voted in favour of. It is a disgusting comparison, and it lessens any argument you try to make with your inclusion of it.

The reason Bloody Sunday stands apart from the other horrific events you outline is that the ones you're highlighting were carried out by a terrorist organisation, Bloody Sunday was carried out by state forces.

If you can't understand why the actions of a government and it's army are different to the actions of a proscribed terrorist organisation, then you're being wilfully ignorant.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120757743#Comment_120757743

You very much did say that 100 years of a devolved NI would emerge after a period of nationally destabilising violence. I have explained before using the actual evidence why this is just brauvura. Yeh some will be capable of single acts of atrocity but a campaign capable of destabilising is just not going to happen.

What I see happening is similar to what is happening over the Protocol, plenty of shouting, posturing and foot stomping but eventually the belligerents will get on with it. Same as what happened with the AIA, GFA, parades and flags.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120758320#Comment_120758320

You are avoiding your own question. This isn’t verbatim, but you were asking how I saw things panning out after a Ui vote. So tell us francie eg do you see a simple arrangement where all decision making is in Dublin? Do you see the guards patrolling Newtownards? Do you see road signs in Irish in Comber? Do you see no first minister or the likes in the 6 counties? Do you see the parades commission being rolled out across Ireland? Do you see the British community saying it’s ok, let’s just throw our weight behind making Dail work? Etc? Etc? They’re just pointers to help you.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120757997#Comment_120757997

Disegenuous spinning fionn.

here is exactly what I said “Ui (which is centralised and run by southern Irish) will be a recruiting ground for UFF like Bloody Sunday was for IRA.”

that is making no comparison, except in that they both would be huge recruiting opportunities. Which one do you think isn’t a recruiting opportunity? Do you think BS wasn’t? Do you think Ui wouldn’t be? I could have listed other stuff like the hunger strikes or the threat of home rule, etc. these big events which raise concerns in one community inevitably become recruiting agents.

tbh your response to my post is pathetic, trying to play the victim card. This place is full of victims and the pain of each is to be recognised.

I have always been surprised that republicans were able to bring most people with them in gfa when ni was handed guarantee of self determination and British parliament was established at stormont. I don’t think any unionist party will be able to do that if there is a Ui. We have just seen the dup whipped into shape by the people on a relatively minor issue of brexit/protocol/WF and told to catch themselves on.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120758523#Comment_120758523

do you see a simple arrangement where all decision making is in Dublin?

Maybe you misunderstand the south downcow. 'All decisions' are not made in Dublin as it is

Do you see the guards patrolling Newtownards?

I see the security forces of a UI patrolling Newtownards whatsoever they are called.

Do you see road signs in Irish in Comber?

I have no doubt some areas will become bywaters of the old intolerance while everywhere else moves forward.

Do you see no first minister or the likes in the 6 counties? 

I see northern Ireland haivng reps in the parliament of a UI.

Do you see the parades commission being rolled out across Ireland?

A Parades Commission was set up to deal with parading where nobody wanted it and parading that triumphalised and taunted. It successfully did that. I am not aware of a need for a Commission elsewhere on the island.

Do you see the British community saying it’s ok, let’s just throw our weight behind making Dail work?

Yes, I see the community represented by the likes of Doug Beattie accepting reality.

Brendan Bendar

Dream on!

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120758562#Comment_120758562

You talk absolute sh*te, Downcow.

No, a democratically agreed border poll, supported by an agreement between the British and Irish governments and voted for by the majority of your community won't be a recruiting opportunity LIKE BLOODY SUNDAY, where your state forces shot innocent civilians.

Do I think otherwise normal, peaceful people will look at a border poll passing and think they have no alternative but armed resistance akin to how a substantial number viewed the events of Bloody Sunday? Not in the slightest.

The comparison is bizarre, while a handful of hardline lunatics might decide to, 'fight the good fight', those people are pretty much already found among the underbelly of society, peddling drugs and intimidating their own people in the likes of East Belfast.

I'm fine with recognising victims, Downcow, it doesn't excuse your whataboutery when YOU bring up Bloody Sunday and then whinge, 'why are people talking about Bloody Sunday? What about when the Provos did _____'.

We've just seen the DUP led by the nose by a small group of folk connected to Loyalist paramilitaries who are concerned about the impact of borders on their own.....ahem....importing. It isn't quite the boast you think it is when Mr 167 Votes Bryson himself is drawing lines in the sand for what, 'Unionism' will tolerate. Add in a bit of ranting about subjugation and jackboots and half your posts would nearly be copy/pastes of his nonsense.

What Unionism is missing is leadership.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120758570#Comment_120758570

I am only aware of one incidence in decades where a legal parade could not progress because of intolerance on the streets, and that was Dublin. So your country may not be as squeaky clean as you think

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120758570#Comment_120758570

While you have ducked the basis of your own question again, your post is incredibly naive and prejudiced

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120758867#Comment_120758867

lol, there was one banned the other day in Belfast downcow and another told not to display taunting banners.

Bryson trying to stoke up a violent response to the Parade Commission too.

But you know this anyway and are just trying to flame people while ignoring the answers to your questions.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120758874#Comment_120758874

Bull. The answers are there. Explain the naivety or prejudice

Sam Russell

What has all this sectarian blaming of past atrocities has to with the 'Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA' which is what this thread is suppose to be about?

One of the few true answers to a question asked on this thread - NOTHING.

Why are the same posters repeatedly repeating the same garbage claims and counter claims? No one such claim has the slightest relevance to the cost of anything. Also, the other side are not listening, so why bother.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120758899#Comment_120758899

I know that the pc continues to issue determinations here on both bands and residents groups. I pointed to the fact that I don’t believe there has been a legal parade prevented from processing in the north for decades. There has been in the south.

you can continue to answer question you are not being asked though

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120759209#Comment_120759209

This is impossible.

You asked a series of questions. i itemised them and answered them and you are talking about some parade a long time ago organised by a discredited victims campaigner who was a player in sectarian killings.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120759027#Comment_120759027

I accept that. I was simply giving examples of how when something happens that is dramatic to a community and they feel cornered or got at, it acts as a recruiting sergeant. So I withdraw my historic examples.

I will stick with the future. A United Ireland where the northern Irish identity is not catered for with eg strong devolution will be a major recruiting agent for loyalist terrorists and will be a huge problem for everyone on the island including the economy.

I don’t think that is what will happen because I think there would be sensible solutions around devolution

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120759246#Comment_120759246

Where is this identity looking for devolution though?

It isn’t a homogeneous identity at all as we know.

Sam Russell

Talking on topic, there are a few topics that could be settled very easily.

1. The PSNI would probably be left intact, either separate from Gardai, or as a division of the Gardai, at Special Commissioner level - that is, joint commissioner.
2. The currency will be Euro, with the same VAT rates and regime as exists now in Ireland.
3. Taxation and Social Welfare rates, and salaries would transition - or not with just a big bang.
4. The British identity will be catered for, with the UK Gov granting British passports to anyone who currently qualifies in NI, and that could be extended to their children and grandchildren. [This is in the gift on the UK Gov].
5. A move of some Gov departments to NI - perhaps stationed at Stormont. Even the Dail or Senate could be stationed there, possible as a second base.
6. The current constitution should be revised, but not a whole rewrite. This where a Citizen's Assembly would be a good approach.
7. The UK Gov would need to provide some funding, tapering off over about a decade. The more they give, the less trouble will ensue, particularly if it is conditional of a peaceful transition.
8. A new setup for local government where certain local authority and services are based on a more regional structure, with fewer councils. This could give more autonomy in current NI areas.
9. The legal system in NI would transition to be the same as Ireland. However, Scotland manages with a separate legal system, so the Current NI system could continue.

I am sure there are better approaches.

However, looking back over the years of conflict, and post GFA that has not lessened the sectarian divide. It would be essential for any proposals be tuned to lessen such friction, but some will always look to be dissatisfied and also look for unintended slights.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120759494#Comment_120759494

Who does keeping the PSNI benefit? And why would you have a separate force?

It makes no practical sense to do that.