Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA
Comments
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Interesting. I wasn’t aware. Thanks for the clarification.
now francie says in one year after a Ui the new rulers will have dealt with the bonfires in British communities in the north.
This will make for an interesting situation. What will happen the bonfires in Irish communities? I doubt you will literally be fanning the flames.
here is the current advice from Dublin City Council
In a handy guide on their website, they say:
- Bonfires are illegal, however, we have to be realistic. It is Halloween after all.
- Only attend organised events, this way you can be confident that the bonfire will be well built and not contain anything nasty.
And here’s a post from Cork Fire Brigade just this weekend. I didn’t realise you guys were as big into bonfires. I see a possible themed youth exchange and sharing of skills.
Is francie having a laugh. Is he so so out of touch. So in one year he will have sent the enforcers in to british communities in the north and they will have taken action on these fire. He says “bless”, “mark my words”.
Bless francie, mark my words, he will guarantee more and bigger bonfires year on year with his silly discriminatory actions.
They are going to intervene at bonfires in the north with up to 35,000 people in attendance at a single fire and they can’t/won’t deal with the hundreds in their own back yard
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Interesting analysis here from the Arins project.
In Scenario 1, Glide Path, both sets of institutional arrangements function for the rest of this decade, with referendums on unification called in 2031, or shortly after.
In Scenario 2, Rocky Road, by contrast, the Protocol functions, but the Northern institutions and the NSMC do not—because the DUP refuses to re-enter into the Assembly and Executive and demands further modifications to the Windsor Framework, which neither the London government nor the European Union are willing to accept. In these circumstances a straightforward return to simple direct rule would be rejected by the Government of Ireland, which, like the rest of the EU, will observe that the UK is obliged by its recent treaties with the EU to protect the GFA “in all its parts” and “in all its dimensions.” In this scenario, UK direct rule would be modified by input from the Government of Ireland through the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference (BIIGC) which “subsumes” the conference established under the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985. The former leader of Alliance, and the first Speaker of the Northern Ireland Assembly, John Alderdice, has labelled this scenario “de facto joint authority(link is external)
.”
We believe that scenarios 3 and 4, logical possibilities in 2021-2, are now exceedingly unlikely. That is because both the UK government (and its likeliest successor, a Labour, or Labour-led government), and the EU are determined to make the Protocol as modified by the Windsor Framework function. That reduces the four scenarios to two, with the DUP in effect deciding which of these will emerge, though it is possible to imagine oscillation between scenarios 1 and 2. We believe that the EU-UK détente, supported by the US, has cut off scenarios 3 and 4 through the Windsor Framework, and that the local government elections of May 2023 have cut off the loyalist hope that they could build sufficient electoral support to overthrow the Protocol.
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