Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120785635#Comment_120785635

That's the poll where your 'creative' maths were laughed out of the room?

https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2023-04-07/third-of-people-in-gb-dont-care-if-ni-leaves-uk

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120785603#Comment_120785603

Not true.

Northern Ireland can achieve all of the economic benefits of a united Ireland through the full operation of the Protocol. In addition, it can secure further benefit by remaining in the UK at the same time.

This will become more apparent over time, and the economic arguments for a united Ireland will be significantly less.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120785931#Comment_120785931

Nitpick: There would be many economic benefits to a UI that the protocol does not provide — e.g. full participation in the EU and SM (currently extensive but not full participation in the SM for goods only); elimination of frictional costs of having different currencies operating on different sides of the border; lower euro interest rates; application of Irish rather than UK Corporation Tax rates, inward investment policies, etc.

Obviously there are countervailing considerations. But in general economic integration with the UK, and partition from the rest of Ireland, has not served NI well over the long term. I see no great reason to expect this to change.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120786094#Comment_120786094

The Protocol is a game-changer, particularly in respect of FDI.

Northern Ireland has one competitive advantage over Ireland and rUK, now that doesn't by itself outweigh its other competitive disadvantages, but it is a boost.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120786212#Comment_120786212

The Protocol COULD potentially be a game changer, but nothing kills FDI quite like instability.

The constant agitation to renegotiate, the untrustworthy nature of the Tories and the lack of a functional devolved government sitting in NI mean any long term FDI will be curtailed by the constant shifting sands.

Would YOU be willing to invest millions over an extended period of time knowing that investment is depending on the Tories sticking to an agreement they signed up to and the DUP backing down?

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120785931#Comment_120785931

Fully integrated into a UI is far better than the current situation where American tourist cannot travel from Dublin to the Giant's Causeway because they need a visa. So big negative on tourists that is not answered by the WF.

The freedom of movement for EU citizens does not exist in NI, and is not covered by the WF.

FDI is not encouraged by the WF because it only allows trade in goods to the UK, and not freedom of workers to come and go as required. Goods imported from GB still require paper work, so that is more bureaucracy.

Overall, whatever benefits the WF gives NI, a UI give much more.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120784126#Comment_120784126

Is that because of its unique position with a foot in both camps?If so, in the event of a UI it's back to what it was before.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120785603#Comment_120785603

In a UI you would expect more cuts to services in NI. We are too small to indulge NI to the same extent the British do.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120787306#Comment_120787306

No problem convincing the British to allow access as a gesture of goodwill to Unionists.

Fully in the EU with access to UK market, northern Ireland would be a roaring success.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120787322#Comment_120787322

How would that work?? Sure that would mean the EU were gaslighting us all if , with the stroke of a pen, we could have full access to both markets and have freedom of moment of goods from the UK to Ireland and then onto the EU.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120787410#Comment_120787410

Protocol is currently protecting the single market while allowing NI to trade with UK and EU. That arrangement just remains.

The north becomes a special trading zone maintaining the same trading links within a UI instead of the UK. I don't think the EU would have any huge problems.

All other things, FoM, citizenship and rights enshrined by the EU, applies to all Ireland.

*I personally agree with other posters here though, being fully in the EU would work for NI. Trade with the UK would not or need not disappear. We still trade with the UK, no problem for them either with a few adjustments.

realitykeeper

If NI has to carry an onerous portion of the UK debt when it unites with the republic, Ireland will need help from the EU and the EU can recoup that cost from the UK by charging them in order to access the EU market.

Frankly, I don`t believe any Irish or British source that says NI will cost us money. If it costs money, why are the UK so eagar to keep NI? If they are not earar to keep it, why are they refusing to allow a referendum and why do they not campaign for a united Ireland? If NI costs money, isn`t that money a bit funny, like BOE confetti? When we in the republic are short of a few bob, we call up our own confetti maker, the ECB. When a country runs a deficit, that is where the money comes from.

I am convinced the reason the Irish government are spending in NI is to send a message to the electorate in the republic that NI will cost us money. Well, if that money were a gift (as is implied in the media) then obviously those responsible would belong in prison for criminal negligence. Gifting billions to the UK would be an obvious act of treason but that is not what is happening. The money spent in NI is being used to pay down a small debt which Ireland borrowed from the UK back around 2008. Where did I read that? I did`t, but it is what makes sense.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120787322#Comment_120787322

Fully in the EU with access to the UK market is exactly where NI was from 1973 to 2020. It wasn't a roaring success.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120786212#Comment_120786212

The Protocol is a game-changer only in the sense that it protects NI from a some of the harms that Brexit threatened. But it doesn't give NI anything that it didn't have before 2020.

NI now has an advantage over IRL in attracting FDI for enterprises that will sell into the UK, but very little of the FDI that IRL has attracted so far has been focussed on the UK market anyway. It has, obviously, a considerable advantage over GB when attracting FDI that will sell into the EU, but it competes with many other potential locations for that FDI including, obviously, IRL.

The main comparative advantage that NI has is in attracting FDI for businesses that will aim to sell both into the EU and the UK; for such projects, it has a significant edge over both IRL and GB. But are there many such projects going?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120790778#Comment_120790778

Fully in the EU with access to the UK market is exactly where NI was from 1973 to 2020. It wasn't a roaring success.

Largely because it was ignored by an important entity - central government. A government which had no interest in the place and were happy to continue the handouts.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120790795#Comment_120790795

Well, there's another reason. "Fully in the with EU access to the UK market" wasn't something only available in NI. The whole of the EU was in that position. So it didn't give NI any kind of comparative advantage to offset its many obvious disadvantages.

Sam Russell

The WF may give a small advantage, but it does not give freedom of movement, and trade from GB to NI is subject to customs declarations - so not much advantage for NI.

Trade to GB is OK, but GB to NI not so much.

downcow

Given that unionist culture is so tied up in the world wars. Most community celebrations are based around remembering the various wars that we fought. Would it be reasonable that a condition of entering a Ui would be that the first act of a new parliament would be to apologise to the people’s of Europe for how Ireland behaved? I think that would be essential.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120794522#Comment_120794522

Your representatives are welcome to seek election and demonstrate a mandate for that, Downcow.

If we're going off on historic things that states should probably apologise for, we can table it for some time in 3023 when Britain gets done with its own list.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120794522#Comment_120794522

Are you suggesting Ireland should apologise for NOT going to war in 1939 - 1945? Or NOT going to war in Korea 1950 - 1953? Or NOT going to war in Vietnam in 1955 - 1975? Or NOT going to war in Iraq 2003 - 2011? Or NOT going to way in Afghanistan 2001 - 2021?

Surely, we should get an apology from anyone who thinks we should go to war to kill innocent civilians - who are always the major causalities of any war.

On the other hand, we have sent our troops around the world on UN peace keeping missions - and surely the Unionist tradition in NI would be hugely supportive of such a tradition.

What a nonsense suggestion - Unionists see going to war as a basic Unionist tradition. [Perhaps it is - UVF, UDA, UFF, etc. do have such a tradition it would appear.]

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120794522#Comment_120794522

We should apologise for not telling you sooner that the British would not thank you for your sarcrifices and would indeed sarcrifice you for their own selfish interests, if it came to it. They think more of their 'special relationship' with those who bailed them out after retreat at Dunkirk, the Yanks. We could tell the British a few things about how that will go if they don't behave themselves, but maybe best to let them learn...character building etc. 😁

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120794578#Comment_120794578

I am not suggesting you apologise for peace keeping trips. I think it would be very helpful if you apologised for your beviour during the fight against facism.

it would also be good for the the Irish and British to apologise to eachother for the period since participation. Both could have behaved better

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120795323#Comment_120795323

What are you on about?

We were neutral during WW II on the side of the Allies.

We had no real military force to throw at the conflict, but many Irish signed for the Allies so what more could we do? A few marches down O'Connell St with flegs waving? Perhaps a few 30 ft high bonfires?

We would have sent beef only all the cattle were culled after British boycotted our beef over the economic war over Gov annuities. Feeding ourselves was more important the joining the fight against fascism - which only began to be effective when the USA joined the fight.

Your grasp of history is a little wonky.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120795518#Comment_120795518

Well now there is some take on things.

absolutely Ireland had some incredibly brave people, some of whom paid the ultimate price. Many returned to the only country in the world to punish those who fought against the Nazis and survived. I understand they were banned from working for Government, Govt contractors & suppliers & lost all pension rights. Disgraceful. But nothing to the decisions of Ireland during the war eg the French Resistance pleading with Ireland to take 600 kids and ireland said no, and they ended up in the gas chambers. Dail instead accepted speeches suggesting that Ireland do the same to the Jews. This all while the allies were giving their all.

Given that this era is so so important to unionist culture - how could we ever be part of a country that has never said sorry.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120796290#Comment_120796290

I have never heard of any incidence resembling your assertions.

There was a certain level of hostilities to soldiers returning from WW I, but not WW II. There were reasons for some of it (not that I would condone such things) - basically the Black and Tans and British atrocities in the War of Independence.

How did the French resistance communicate with the Irish Gov? Sounds like fake history.

Maybe you could post links to this stuff - particularly of the Dail records of these speeches - if they exist.

blanch152

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/poll-reveals-leo-varadkar-is-still-the-fine-gael-favourite-and-what-the-public-thinks-about-big-state-salaries/a1201572876.html

A miserly 2% of voters think that Northern Ireland/Brexit should be a priority for the Government.

Given that figure, there is no chance in hell of any Irish government wasting any money or time making a plan for a united Ireland.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120796345#Comment_120796345

Probably all lies because it doesn’t fit the Irish whiter that white portrayal

https://www.timesofisrael.com/when-ireland-rejected-jewish-orphans-fleeing-nazis-this-man-saved-dozens/amp/

I’m sure I can find it in a British paper if you would trust that more

Here’s the actual mp quoted, with his Knights of Columbanus mates

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120796651#Comment_120796651

Quoting Blessed Oliver Flanagan - Ha!. And from an Israel source - Ha again.

So one bigoted idiot requires the nation to apologise.

Would the same standard be applied to the late Ian Paisley and his many intemperate remarks towards Catholics, and generally the Irish Nation?

downcow

the issue of the Jewish kids being refused refuge by Ireland was simply an example because you suggested there was nothing to apologise for. Flanagan was just a side issue in same article.

……and I think even Paisley falls very far short of what was suggested in that speech. Maybe not get into whataboutery and just recognise how difficult it would be for British people to belong to you state without a recognition of the passed.

its just another ‘cost of a Ui’ for your people

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120796615#Comment_120796615

Apparently the elderly, the war in Ukraine and jobs are all things you don't think that any Irish government should spend money on. Sure according to you, crime/drugs and THE F*CKING ECONOMY should be ignored by the government too, since they're in single digits and all.

Unification isn't even my priority, Blanch. You're very intentionally ignoring the word priority and pretending it means those things aren't important.

downcow

Just to give a sense of the pride in our military history. Here is one of many Somme parades from yesterday, all winding their way through miles of monster crowds. Some on here would have you believe that the younger generation aren’t interested. Just take a look at the age profile. The oldies like me are at home with no energy for this anymore, but marching bands are huge annd getting even bigger among the young people.

now can you imagine the Garda trying to police this in a United ireland?

https://twitter.com/garygra04735164/status/1675558079235014657?s=46&t=clJwThzOwE6ATJJbtTfYjQ