Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120811703#Comment_120811703

If they are not trying to wreck it altogether you have the likes of Ian Paisley trying to get tthe terms changed with his supermajority bill.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120811817#Comment_120811817

Lots of people are trying to get terms changed, Francie.

I think it is pretty unfair to level that charge broadly at Unionists because Paisley is trying to insert supermajorities while ignoring that there are pushes from many corners (including APNI and some SDLP) to remove mandatory coalition.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120811850#Comment_120811850

APNI and the SDLP are not doing it because a UI approaches Fionn.

Nothing wrong with change, it's was the motive for wanting that change I was pointing out.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120811877#Comment_120811877

No, they're pushing it because it suits them and their goals......much like Paisley is pushing because it suits him and his goals.

Only difference is that we don't agree with Paisley and his goals.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120810586#Comment_120810586

Your hypothetical arrangement doesn't have half the support of anyone and never will. That is the basis of my argument. A single United Ireland is the stuff of land of milk and honey, of unicorns and rainbows, wake up to that, and look at the alternative united Irelands.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812093#Comment_120812093

The 'alternatives' nobody is looking for.

Because inherently they all maintain in some way, what has failed.

When you face up to that you'll realise why nobody of substance is pushing for your 'solutions'.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812069#Comment_120812069

And I am criticising what they are pushing for.

I didn't claim they were the only ones looking for change Fionn, so not sure why you have put the school teacher hat on again to explain to me what I am doing.😁

It's a bit patronising tbh.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812116#Comment_120812116

Rinse and repeat the same old binary tropes. Again, who ever goes looking for their second choice? Answer me that, as you keep ignoring it.

Handwaving away in fear any discussion of second choices and compromises is the mindset of entrenched binary thinking.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812142#Comment_120812142

Who is handwaving away? Criticism of your 'alternatives is below:

Your alternatives won't work because they are essentially versions of what the last 100 years have proved, don't work.

That is why nobody wants them.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812242#Comment_120812242

You have to look to academia for evidence of new thinking - sectarian binary thinkers are not going to lead on this.

"In practice, as this article has argued, the number of politically relevant alternatives is much smaller, and may be reduced to two: a centralised unitary state, the unspoken structure taken for granted for over a century as the preferred model; and a unitary all-island state with a decentralist (or federative) relationship with Northern Ireland, accepted as a fall-back position by Irish nationalist leaders since 1921.

Notwithstanding the dearth of public opinion data, it seems highly likely that the latter model will come to be seen as the only realistic one—less disruptive of the constitutional and administrative status quo, less demanding in respect of cultural and political compromise, and potentially less expensive as regards economic costs (depending on precise arrangements)."

This particular article goes with a federal or confederal solution as the only realistic option. Scary territory for the binary sectarianists, but not the first or the last time that academia is going to explore difficult places that politicians fear to go.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812342#Comment_120812342

There is nothing 'new' in that thinking.

What never gets old is the lack of any support for that thinking.

Sam Russell

I can see no acceptance of a 'federal' solution for NI - absolutely none.

Ireland is a small republican democratic state that is evolving to increase its democratic base, where all citizens are equal before the law. Much has been achieved in the 25 years since the GFA. Over 15% of the current population have immigrated here, reversing the historic emigration. Surely those living in NI can see that they would be welcomed and would be better off economically, socially, and have a better, more expansive, view of the world rather than the inward view they appear to have currently.

In my opinion, a federal type setup for NI would be an anathema to the voters in Ireland, and, if that is the only option for a UI, then it will not be accepted here in Ireland. It would bake in the inequality that was the basis for the NI regime since its inception a century ago, and the reason for its failure.

No-one could accept the pantomime that the NI Assembly displays as a political chamber would embarrass most county councils. It has been shutdown for half its existence.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812093#Comment_120812093

If it never will, why are you so eager to insert supermajority clauses, Blanch? If it'll never have the support of half, then you never need to worry about it.

The simple fact is you have laid your hypocrisy bare for all to see; thousands of posts about respecting the wishes of the population of NI, but the mask slips fierce quick when it suits and now you're advocating for not even asking for the opinion of the people you're proposing to impact.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812139#Comment_120812139

If your criticism is for the specific changes they're trying to implement, why phrase it as a criticism for them trying to, 'wreck' the GFA?

They're trying to tweak it to suit them, akin to how everyone else pushing for reform is. I don't think APNI are being any more altruistic than DUP with the changes they want.

Maybe I've taken your post differently to how you intended, but it very much reads like your criticism is for, 'Unionists' seeking reform, so I think it is very fair to point out that reform is being sought from all quarters. That Unionists are seeking reform makes them no more guilty of attempting to wreck the GFA than APNI or SDLP.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812540#Comment_120812540

They have been trying to wreck the GFA since it was agreed. When I used 'Wrecking' I most certainly was not confusing it with attempts to 'reform it'.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812560#Comment_120812560

Ah come on, Francie. You described Unionists as, 'frothing at the mouth' to change the agreement while presenting Nationalists as happily accepting the wishes of the majority. You haven't limited it to just criticism of the DUP, you've ignored that there has been as much push from APNI and from the Nationalist side for reform as from the Unionist side. It is entirely disingenuous to try and pivot to it just being a criticism of DUP not signing up to the GFA.

You certainly haven't described SDLP or APNI as frothing at the mouth.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812594#Comment_120812594

Because trying to wreck the GFA is not the same as trying to reform it Fionn. I was referencing Unionists and partitionists who are frothing at the mouth...the DUP/TUV are Unionists.

I didn't use the word 'happily' either.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812632#Comment_120812632

Yes you did. The direct quote from your post is

"Nationalists have quite happily accepted the wishes of the majority since they voted for the GFA."

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812645#Comment_120812645

Fair enough.

And they have.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812515#Comment_120812515

What supermajority clause am I inserting?

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812719#Comment_120812719

Do you or do you not support a supermajority/greater than 50%+1 vote being required for Unification?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812719#Comment_120812719

Search function is broken, but you have definitely advocated for a supermajority in a BP.

65535

We have had to take our independence by degrees -

even today July 6th is the anniversary of the handing over of the Treaty Ports - Spike Island, Haulbowline Island, Bere Island and Lough Swilly.

Even our coinage was the same for a long time more or less until the Euro came into being.

We need to keep on the road to get our lawful and outright Independence.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/munster/arid-41177383.html

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812505#Comment_120812505

That is a tired old vision of a united Ireland. It is a type of united Ireland that is ignoring the reality of there now being three minorities in Northern Ireland.

You might think that those living in Northern Ireland might see that they would be welcomed, but that is not the reality and unlikely to ever be a reality. Sure, didn't most Russians believe that those living in the Ukraine would see that they would be welcomed into the motherland and would be better off economically, socially and have a better, more expansive view of the world than the inward view they appeared to them to have? See how that worked out.

A federal type setup might be anathema to you, but some sort of compromise will be needed at some point.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812836#Comment_120812836

If there is ever a referendum, 50% +1 will be all that is required for it to pass.

However, remember, the GFA condition, the SoS will only call a border poll when it is likely to pass, opinion polls would need to be heading towards 60% for a border poll to be likely to pass, so the 50% +1 is immaterial.

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120812093#Comment_120812093

Is the same true for Scotland. If the majority vote to leave the union is someone obliged to gerrymander a part of Scotland where there is a majority of unionists and make Scotland federal?

If not why is Scotland different to Ireland?

You are just coming up with reasons to keep NI alive. You even reject coming up with new boundary lines with no toxic history like NI in a "new" fedral ireland. You try and come across as all woke with your fedral solution but by the fact that you reject any fedral ireland that doesn't have the boundary line of NI shows you're full of sh*t. The toxic failed boundary line of NI has to live on to show partion lives on. Everyone can see what your agenda is. You are a partionists. If there is a UI the failed jurisdiction of NI will be for the history books.

Btw given that NI is a failed jurisdiction in the UK what makes you think it will suddenly work in a UI? You never answer that question.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120813378#Comment_120813378

Christ almighty lads, will you never understand. The emergence of the third minority changes the game in Northern Ireland. Support for a united Ireland and support for parties wanting a united Ireland has been stagnant at best for the last 15 years, despite all we were told about the demographics. Wake up and smell the coffee, something different to a single unitary state is required.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120813166#Comment_120813166

I always thought 50+1+margin of error would be a fair criteria. Probably about 55% for most polls. Just to be clear , I mean for the LucidTalk polls etc. The border poll itself should be 50+1%.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120813423#Comment_120813423

Correct, the test is that it is likely to pass. If support in an opinion poll is only at 49% it is not likely to pass, it is only when it is passing 55% in Lucid Talk polls can it be considered likely rather than possible.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120813406#Comment_120813406

The third 'minority' is not a politically homogeneous one blanch.

You know this but still present it as one.

What is required and IMO is coming, is a plan/proposal for our constitutional aspiration - a UI.

If that doesn't work out then we can look at other arrangements.