Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120138430#Comment_120138430

Sinn Fein have made no effort to move away from sectarianism. Just one IRA funeral can tell you that.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120138731#Comment_120138731

No to what?

The lone voices in the wilderness calling for a border poll are getting fainter. We are due some lip service from Mary-Lou soon, it is about a year since she talked about one. However, nobody is serious about one.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120145402#Comment_120145402

 it is about a year since she talked about one.

oh yeh?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40967933.html

And 'No' to a UI. Seems to be the logical option for that poster.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120145444#Comment_120145444

Ok, it's coming up on six months, rather than a year. Her intervention generated a news story?

A man putting up a few posters generates a bit more attention than a border poll, which says it all. Ditto any other subject, be that housing, Enoch Burke, refugees, Dancing with the Stars, Ukraine, how many players Crokes had on the pitch, hospital waiting lists, Harry's book or the Kardashians, which all appear more important and newsworthy than a border poll.

You'll be waiting for one.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120145462#Comment_120145462

Spoke about it again in December.

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2022/12/02/everything-on-the-table-ahead-of-border-poll-mary-lou-mcdonald-tells-late-late-show/

Never let the truth get in the way ...etc etc.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120145473#Comment_120145473

Must have missed that one too, generated acres of newsprint? Editorials? Documentaries? Chat show programmes all over it?

A border poll is a dead duck that someone in SF gives a ceremonial kick to once in a while and shouts "Look, it's alive".

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120145487#Comment_120145487

You were factually wrong, again

Let's leave it at that.

FrancieBrady

The idea that this is going away or diminishing is quite fanciful really.

While Sinn Féin continue to cite Irish Unity as a key political issue, Mr Meagher said other parties are now starting to rank it much higher in their business as well.

"You can see the interventions of people like Neale Richmond in Fine Gael, Jim O’Callaghan in Fianna Fáil, I don’t agree with everything they say and that’s fine in this debate, but it shows there are people in the main parties thinking about this.

"Ten years ago if Sinn Féin was looking to be part of an Irish government you would have said the issue of Irish Unity is not kind of matured enough, it would have been difficult for an Irish government.

"Now it has matured an awful lot, there is a tendency in Dublin and in Westminster to endlessly kick the can down the road and hope that it doesn’t crystalise on your watch because it feels like a really big thing.

"Election results are telling us it can’t be ignored. Mary Lou McDonald could end up as Taoiseach with Michelle O’Neill as First Minister, the demand that something is done about this will be too strong.

"Hard election results, democracy, any criteria you can alight on to ask if there is demand for a Border Poll, is suggesting that there is."

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/the-landscape-argument-for-a-united-ireland-is-there-but-foreground-needs-to-be-painted-1420486.html

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120145796#Comment_120145796

The idea that this is going away or diminishing is quite fanciful really.

It doesn't matter though. What people in Ireland get up to has nothing to do with whether a border poll will be called. Which, in pure Westminster political terms, is a dead duck for at least 7 years.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120146669#Comment_120146669

It is not going away in the same way that politicians throughout the 1920s said that a Border Commission wasn't going away. Until it did.

Lip service has to be paid by certain politicians and political parties to the idea of a Border poll. Anyone else wasting their time calling for it is being fooled.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120146669#Comment_120146669

We'll see. Pressure is a thing in politics. Cameron didn't need to call a ref on Brexit but he did, due to pressure.

How long more can they deny a border poll remains to be seen. Like others I think it is inevitable. Sure as hell is not going away and is only increasing.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120146700#Comment_120146700

No one in Westminster cares about pressure from Northern Ireland. Brexit was due to pressure from right wing conservatives moving to UKIP which was threatening the Conservative majority. There is nothing equivalent to force their hands here.

This govt quite obviously won't do anything, and there is zero chance Labour are getting dragged into this in their first term in 20 years. Obviously the whole situation takes on extra importance with the Scottish question hanging in the air also. While I think it will be longer again, there is absolutely no chance of it happening in the next 7 years - Its just political reality.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120146735#Comment_120146735

Again, how the Scottish ref was called negates this.

I could see the Protocol very easily leading to a border poll if events took a certain turn.

It's not something set in stone is the point. Takes very little to profoundly change things.

facehugger99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120146749#Comment_120146749

The realty is that you have nothing, not one single tangible thing, to back up your assertions regarding a border poll.

Posting up clips of Mary Lou spouting the same tired rhetoric to the same tired audience doesn't count.

I'd place as much store in you telling us about your feelings on "pressure" or things "taking a certain turn" (LOL) as I would some awl lad in the pub telling me that he can see the future in the foam of his beer.

Hard economics beat soft and fluffy aspirations - and they always will.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120146700#Comment_120146700

Pressure?

Mary-Lou preaching to the converted? Ireland's future love-ins? Up the Ra being sung around the place?

Pressure?

You're having a laugh.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120146799#Comment_120146799

All I have said is that those who think it is going away/going nowhere are demonstratively wrong.

I have also said, citing historical events, that these things/attitudes can change very quickly.

There are more than Mary Lou considering this...also backed up.

facehugger99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120146897#Comment_120146897

I don't think you understand what 'demonstratively' means.

Brendan Bendar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120146897#Comment_120146897

You can “ back up” till the cows come home Mr F but the bottom line is the economic problems that will be thrown up by a UI will ensure that it won’t happen till the dissenters in the North want it to happen.

And that ain’t anytime soon.

Idealists and mystics have had their day, it’s all down to ‘brass tacks’ now .

There will always be those who yearn for the whiff of the whins and the mountain air, and, dare I say it, the stench of cordite but they can do all the backing up, the evidence based theories, the numerous surveys they like nothing will happen till the cost is sorted.

And that’s a long way off.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120146977#Comment_120146977

I have demonstrated that there are many more talking about a United Ireland than SF. You haven't shown any evidence that this is going away.

Here's some more:

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-inevitability-of-a-united-ireland/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/06/its-closer-now-than-its-ever-been-could-there-soon-be-a-united-ireland

The fear of admitting this is very interesting.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147025#Comment_120147025

Why do you keep bringing up discredited sectarian head-counter arguments?

Politics in Northern Ireland hasn't followed the sectarian head-counting trend for quite a while. Nationalist groups have far underperformed the sectarian head-counters' expectations, with the total vote struggling to reach 40%.

To use your own words, it has been demonstratively proven in recent elections that more Catholics than Protestants doesn't equate to a united Ireland.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147055#Comment_120147055

'I' didn't do that.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147064#Comment_120147064

You linked to two articles predicting a united Ireland based on sectarian head-counting, with both of them pointing to that aspect as being decisive. That sectarian head-count argument has been shown to be false given the fact that the nationalist vote is barely above 2006 levels.

Why did you link to sectarian head-counting arguments if you don't believe them?

blanch152

I don't know why this needs to be pointed out several times.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election

Combined nationalist vote in 2007 was 40.2%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election

By 2022 it was down to 39.8%.

Yet people still drag up and support articles pointing to some sectarian head-count argument that a united Ireland is getting nearer. That is demonstratively wrong.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147085#Comment_120147085

To prove the point that a UI is being talked about by more than SF.

I didn't subscribe to the views expressed in any of those articles, I merely showed that they exist.

P.S. If you are saying that a change in the demographics is not having an affect you aren't listening to Unionism lately. They are exhibiting the exact same fearful handwaving away that you are.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120146749#Comment_120146749

To a point yes, and if SF ever manage to get an outright majority in Stormont my opinion would shift.

I think you massively overestimate the importance of the politics of NI in all this, and massively underestimate the importance of the politics of Westminster. They can happily leave NI chugging along without much of a care in the world - neither party has any presence there. The party that wants the border poll is not even present in Westminster to argue for it. Labour will, quite simply, just have better things to be doing.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147203#Comment_120147203

Blair knew the value to him politically of having a significant impact in NI. He didn't shy away.

I think if a British PM could see a way of divesting themselves of NI(they have tacitly done that with the GFA and in actions since) without creating a bigger mess they will go for it just like Blair. There will be back channel work between Dublin and Westminister on whether the time is right and a poll will be called. IMO from observation they are pushing it away since the GFA and Brexit just reinforces that view.

'Events dear boy' and all that.

facehugger99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147025#Comment_120147025

Ahh - talking.

Yeah, we're good at talking.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147310#Comment_120147310

There is always loads of talk before change. See history for that.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147223#Comment_120147223

Bringing peace to a part of your country is a very different thing from losing a part of your country. While no one cares about NI, the optics of a diminishing UK are not good either (and it brings instability to Scotland).

I think "an opportunity to divest themselves of NI" could well be their way of thinking at some point - but it would require significant, consistent 60+% support for a UI before that is an option. We are nowhere near that. What we have is the possibility of a highly divisive and tension filled year, bringing needless stress and torment to a Westminster govt.

As things stand its absurd to think it has crossed the barrier set by the GFA for the SoS to call a ref. I personally don't see it crossing that any time soon, but if it gets near than domestic UK politics also come into play. There is zero benefit to Labour of touching this in their first term when they have other stuff to do. It won't even cross their radar I'm afraid. I would suggest we are well over 7 years away from it being called legitimately anyway, but that doesn't matter. It won't come up in the UK election in 2 years and it won't be touched by Starmer's govt.

You are failing to articulate exactly what pressure would be brought and how it would impact the UK govt. The fact that no one cares about NI makes the Unionists look silly, but it also acts as a roadblock to getting any significant movement for a UI vote.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147489#Comment_120147489

I didn't claim it had crossed any barriers.

What you seem to be denying is that political shifts and attitudes can change very quickly and it doesn't take a lot.

You also seem to be denying that the British will not be politically expedient in their selfish interests, they have been and will be again.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147604#Comment_120147604

What I'm denying is that there is any shift in NI that will matter to London in the next decade. London doesn't care about NI, I think we both would largely agree on this. An extension of this is that they can also ignore it and political shifts in it.

Labour will not want to distract themselves in their first term in 20 years with a completely avoidable constitutional crisis. It is not and will not be in their interest to basically go down as "losing" another part of the UK when they want to focus on blue collar worker pay, the NHS and the relationship with Europe etc.

(and yes, I don't think this shift is going to happen anyway and there is not really any reason to think it will).

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147661#Comment_120147661

I disagree.

I think the prize for a British PM of sorting the Irish question once and for all will be hard to resist for any of them. The 'losing a part of the UK' will be easily outweighed by the 'it's right and proper' brigade who recently expressed their opinions via polling. Also, the ERG will happily sarcrifice NI if it means further separation from the EU.

We could arrive at a border poll with the British still not caring for NI but only their own selfish reasons.

Brendan Bendar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147604#Comment_120147604

Still celebrating 1690 in NI. ??

Not exactly a “quick change” I would opine.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147690#Comment_120147690

The big picture tells you that solving the Irish question through Irish unity will encourage the Scottish independence movement and hasten the break-up of the UK at a time when the UK needs to hold together for the preservation of the monarchy and Brexit, which rightly or wrongly, are two things that the British public and politic seem very attached to.

Given the big picture, no chance of a border poll.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120155114#Comment_120155114

So, let's put a border in the Irish sea despite telling Unionists that we wouldn't, and stabilise the Union in NI?

Doesn't really stand up does it?

The Scottish and NI situations viz a viz the rest of the UK have always been different.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120155225#Comment_120155225

Smaller picture stuff Francie, smaller picture stuff. Look at the bigger things going on. Any fudge to sort out Brexit is fine by London so long as bigger picture stuff is intact.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120155241#Comment_120155241

So critically destabilise a part of the union that has an International Agreement that allows it to leave that Union?

Yet, claim they want to desparately hold on to that entity to preserve the Union?

Credibilty being stretched again.

downcow

One step at a time!

So the EU appear to have conceded what all posters who commented on it here said was absolutely impossible ie any compromise whatsoever on ECJ

Still not enough and glad Uk has still not accepted it It is though a compromise that sources say is remarkable and unique. One source said ‘wow’

well done grassroots unionist community for pushing the DUP to stay out of stormont. They must not accept this testing leak. We are now the crocodiles and we must learn from the past decades.

one step at a time!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-protocol-customs-deal-uk-eu-b2273356.html?amp

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120185668#Comment_120185668

Is the Protocol gone?

Nope. As you were told, it is going nowhere.

P.S.

The FCDO suggested the newspaper’s report was speculative, saying officials were still engaged in “intensive scoping talks” with Brussels and declining to pre-empt the discussions.

The Times reported that while the customs element was apparently “finalised”, the role of the ECJ and details of the veterinary arrangements were not.

markodaly

If there is going to be a new election for Stormont, SF will do what it did last time when the subject of a UI came up, say nothing because a UI is one of the last things on many people's minds given the various crisis on going up there.

In peacetime though they love to bang on about it, but when it comes to war time electioneering, they say **** all.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186183#Comment_120186183

I wonder would that be because it isn't up for decision at the election?

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186304#Comment_120186304

Yet why endlessly talk about it during elections?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186525#Comment_120186525

I'm confused. Are you saying they 'talk endlessy' about it during elections or they don't?

If there is going to be a new election for Stormont, SF will do what it did last time when the subject of a UI came up, say nothing because a UI is one of the last things on many people's minds given the various crisis on going up there.

It's a part of their manifesto/policy aims but isn't the key decision to be made at Assembly/Westminster elections.

downcow

More movement in the right direction, but a long way to go.

this is probably the first time in 50 years that our community has goals to chase and is making gains. Where would we be now if our people had let the dup sell us down the river?

interesting that ni will be full of potential non-eu compliant goods. Oh deary me, how will they stop them flooding across the border - I think the uup told them how more than two years ago. We will see the lie now about this great risk to the eu. If they were telling the truth then they will obviously build customs posts at newry - but I think we all know the truth

https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1622490194124451840?s=21

downcow

Maybe someone could tell me what the Ecj is required to oversee if the eu have accepted we can have non-eu compliant goods freely moving around ni. The mask is slipping

FrancieBrady

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1622533227373019136

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120207225#Comment_120207225

Under the framework of 'The Protocol' which is not going anywhere. The EU compromising and doing what they said and what was said here. Unionists still saying Never Never Never.

FrancieBrady

It takes a certain amount of cheek to be asking for rights given Unionist history up to just recently.

https://twitter.com/AmandaFBelfast/status/1622534331649359875

downcow

Spin it however you wish but we all know that if grassroots unionism had not stood up two years ago then none of these ‘compromises’ you refer to from the eu would be forthcoming.

tony Connolly (mr EU) was on radio ulster this morning and it was a joy to listen to. He went so far as to say that if we can get all the other issues sorted out then it is unlikely the eu will let it collapse on ECJ.

what has happened in months, I thought was going to take years. So maybe or battle that I thought would take decades will only take a year or two. We are well fed this week already!

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120207964#Comment_120207964

So you won't be voting for the DUP if the EU is flexible on The Protocol as they said they would be?

I think you over estimate the role of Unionism here, Sunak is responding to the ERG wing in the Tories, the ERG who would let NI go to get the Brexit they want.

martinedwards

Much discussion in this thread about pensions etc.

someone said that this would all be put to people before any vote.

As someone who watched the lies, disinformation and general spin thrown around during Brexit.......

I suspect that the water would be so muddied that folk will vote with their hearts because their brains will be fried.

IMHO, Ireland can't afford to take on the massive unemployment bills that will land on them, along with problems like the vast majority of Teachers and civil servants in the North wont qualify for their jobs in the new Ireland because they don't have the necessary qualifications in Irish.