Cheltenham ante-post bets

howareyakid

I wouldn't normally be the biggest ante-post bettor – I usually prefer to wait until closer to the time, and there are always some big-priced winners at the festival to try and find anyway, regardless of ante-post bets or not! But one I have done for this year is Better Days Ahead in the bumper. The Morans have pumped a lot of money into the game in the last few years, and so far have yet to have a Cheltenham Festival winner. They suffered the heart-breaking loss of Ginto in last year's Albert Bartlett, but I feel if you continue to spend money to the extent they are, your luck is bound to change at some point. They again spent big money on this horse at last year's Cheltenham sale, and after getting turned over at 3s on in Downpatrick in November, the five-year-old recovered very well to beat what appears to be Willie's leading bumper horse for this year, and the other horse currently generally at the head of the market for this year's renewal, Chapeau De Soleil, at Fairyhouse in December. Patrick Mullins came out after the race and suggested that even in defeat he still holds their horse in very high regard and seemed to say that he could come on for the run. I'm sure we may well see these two pitch up again at Leaopardstown for the DRF where we may get the best precursor to date to what might happen in Prestbury Park in March. It could be a more open race than in the last few years though, potentially, where there may not be an outstanding prospect such as what we saw with Facile Vega last year.

Count Dracula

Not my bag really, but the Shark has been on about Hewick all year long, at least you know it is turning up if fit to run. That has always been my biggest issue with AP, especially NH racing. I reckon win only, he either improves the stone or he doesn't. I like backing him and it would be great for the Shark, great for racing. But i won't be getting too excited either. 25's is short all said.

howareyakid

Two of the feature races already with odds-on ante post favourites in Constitution Hill (4/11) for the Champion Hurdle and Energumene (8/11) in the Champion Chase. Hard to see them being much shorter on the day with some bookies maybe looking to take some of them on possibly.

famagusta

I have been punting for years, i would have a few ante post bets every year but not a load of em, wherever i thought there was an edge etc.. . I never ever remember the bookies been so defensive as this year, there is very very little value in the ante post books now. most horses are almost priced up as if it was the Tuesday morning of the festival.

A couple of bookies are gone NRNB, a lot earlier than last year, obviously to try drum up a bit of business. I will be keeping my powder dry for a while i'd say.

howareyakid

I've thrown a dart at STELLAR STORY at 33s for the Albert Bartlett. He was another expensive purchase from last year’s Cheltenham sale, bought by Gigginstown for Gordon Elliott. He won a bumper on New Year's Day after a fifth-place finish on his rules debut. By all accounts, he isn't a bumper horse, and we may see more of him stepped up in trip and over hurdles. The Albert Bartlett appears to be his next target – it seems to be his only Cheltenham entry from what I can see, and three miles is in his pedigree also, as he is a full brother to The Storyteller, a previous Cheltenham Festival winner.

I remember hearing tipsters saying that this race needed a more experienced, battle-hardened horse, but in recent years we've seen horses with a similar profile to this win this race, most notably The Nice Guy last year who only won a maiden hurdle in February, after winning two bumpers earlier on in the season, before going on to win at the festival last March. You'd expect this horse to be entered into a maiden hurdle before Cheltenham as well, and if he was to go on and win that, I'd predict his price to shorten a bit considering his price tag and pedigree.

supremenovice

I'd give Royal Pagaille one more go at the Gold Cup. He was a well beaten second in the King George but he needs a slog in the mud to see his best, so a good result all things considered. He really needs the heavy ground so its a bit of a long shot but if the Gold Cup was run on the Wednesday last year he'd have been bang there, as Venetia's stable was white hot at the time. 66s ante-post when it looks a lot of the others wont turn up is decent

Count Dracula

I think you have to take a chance on ground conditions or other variables being in your favour to get the most value for AP bets, especially NH. Your comments on Royal Pagaille are spot on, he would love a good mud slog over 3 and more, but it is getting those conditions is where your price is? All things considered he should be nearer 100's. You also have to factor in his age and improvement, he is 9 now, so last chance saloon on stats for a gold cup.

The only people really capable of turning profit on AP are owners and other genuine connections. They decide what the plan is and at least know if the nag is turning up for starters?

I spent a few years watching non-triers in Irish flat maidens. It is a lot of work and more often than not it can be difficult enough finding out targets for these types. The aim is to find an end of season big money handicap they are looking at. But the reality is that if a small outfit has a good 2/3 year old they can sell it to Asia for 6/7 figures with a maiden and a listed win. It is tough to beat the market.

I have made more money at Cheltenham the last few years in avoiding the hype. Look for smaller outfits that have less exposure and a trainer with a tight lip. Avoid media gambles if possible. The worse that can happen is you miss a few even money shots from Closutton, anyone can throw their paper in the air backing those... IF they win.

longshotvalue

I've only had 2 really this year, EAsysland and Saint Roi . both at 33/1. EAsysland is still great value, its a 2-3 horse race, fav will be hard to beat, but i can see improvement

The Hoarse Whisperer

I think Gentlemansgame could be a good shout for the Brown Advisory. 14/1 paddy’s. 150 rated hurdler an improvement of a half a stone or so for chasing could see him go close I feel in what’s looking a weak enough division this year. Gaillard du Mesnil currently 9/2 fav who I’m not sure will even go for this race. Rob Acheson of Robcour (the owners) tipped up this fella for this at 33s a few months ago so maybe the real ew value is gone but I’m gunna chance him at 14s ew myself.

howareyakid

Energumene cut to 5/2 with PP for the Champion Chase after finishing third in today’s Clarence House Chase at Cheltenham. Editeur Du Gite who won today’s race is now 5/1, and Edwardstone who lost out narrowly in a tight finish is now 7/4 favourite…

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120079578#Comment_120079578

del roy

The Cheltenham Festival is only six weeks away! The Supreme Novices' Hurdle kicks off the best week of jump racing in the world on March 14 and we've pinpointed the best ante-post value for that race and the festival's two other Grade 1 novice hurdles – plus the Triumph . . .

High Definition

Race: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Odds: 14-1

It has proven difficult for High Definition to shake off the 'one-time Derby favourite' tag that seems to accompany him whenever he steps foot on a racecourse, but it’s incredibly rare to see a horse of his ability go hurdling and the 14-1 price available for the Supreme looks a spot of value.

Ivanovich Gorbatov and the ill-fated Sir Erec are examples of smart Flat horses transformed into high-class hurdlers by Joseph O’Brien, but an official mark of 112 rates High Definition the best of the lot and just eight months ago he came to within a neck of claiming Group 1 honours in the Tattersalls Gold Cup.

He defied a market drift to make a winning hurdles debut at Leopardstown over Christmas, and while his jumping will have to be better to win the Supreme, it should be recognised it was his first start over obstacles, and making the running reportedly wasn’t plan A.

His winning time was only fractionally slower than that of Facile Vega over the same course and distance just over 24 hours later, and his ability to travel at a speed most jumpers aren’t bred for will stand him in good stead in the hustle and bustle of a Supreme – often the fastest race of the festival.

Irish Point

Race: Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

Odds: 25-1

Owners Robcour have a mixed recent history with the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. Bob Olinger landed the race for connections in 2021, and Journey With Me was in contention to place until falling at the final flight fall 12 months ago.

Their most likely representative this year is Irish Point, a Grade 1 bumper winner in France who has been progressive since sent hurdling for Gordon Elliott.

An odds-on Cork maiden hurdle win was followed by a defeat to Marine Nationale by a head in the Grade 1 Royal Bond at Fairyhouse.

Irish Point was kept to Grade 1 company in the Lawlor’s Of Naas earlier this month, where he came with what looked a winning challenge before ultimately failing to run down the front running Champ Kiely – who reversed their Royal Bond form.

The omission of hurdles one and two at Naas may have been expected to suit a former bumper winner, but given Irish Point had hurdled so accurately at Fairyhouse their absence had a detrimental effect. The jumping examination posed at Cheltenham will be more up his street.

Given it’s now 1-1 between Irish Point and Champ Kiely, the fact that one horse is 25-1 with Paddy Power for the Ballymore and the other 7-1 is a little puzzling — particularly given that Irish Point is more than two years the Mullins runner’s junior and therefore presumably open to greater physical and mental improvement.

Afadil

Race: Triumph Hurdle

Odds: 25-1

The Triumph Hurdle betting is set up as a match between the Willie Mullins pair Lossiemouth and Blood Destiny, but if there is a horse from left-field with the potential to spoil that party it could be the Paul Nicholls-trained Afadil.

This Camelot gelding cost €255,000 after winning a Craon maiden for Francis Graffard last June, and made a winning start for his new connections at Taunton earlier this month despite almost refusing at the first flight.

Afadil didn’t give his supporters much cause for concern afterwards though, jumping fluently and pulling two lengths clear on the run-in under a motionless Harry Cobden.

That form wouldn’t be anything to shout home about but Paul Nicholls mentioned Afadil’s Triumph Hurdle entry afterwards and nominated February’s Victor Ludorum at Haydock as a potential target — a contest he has won with the likes of Frodon, Quel Destin and Monmiral in recent seasons.

Those comments intimated that Afadil ranked highly amongst Nicholls’s juvenile hurdlers, and if so the 25-1 available looks a generous price.

Letsbeclearaboutit

Race: Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

Odds: 25-1

The Grade 2 Lyons Of Limerick Jaguar Land Rover Novice Hurdle rates a bona fide Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle trial given that the 2015, 2017 and 2021 Albert Bartlett winners had all taken part in the race prior to their victories, while Fury Road (third by a neck in the 2020 Albert Bartlett) had landed the contest in 2019.

The latest renewal of this informative affair saw Gigginstown’s Favori De Champdou score decisively, but this eight-year-old has had his injury problems and from an ante-post perspective the safer play is to side with the runner-up Letsbeclearaboutit.

Only beaten by Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard in five bumper starts, this Flemensfirth gelding missed last season but has been progressive since returning to the track, deservedly getting off the mark at the fourth attempt over hurdles when landing a Punchestown maiden by 22 lengths earlier this month.

Getting his head back in front will have boosted Letsbeclearaboutit’s confidence, and trainer Gavin Cromwell knows what is required to land the Albert Bartlett, having sent out the 2021 winner Vanillier — who had also prepped for the race with a second-place finish at Limerick.

For a horse with high-class bumper form to his name — and stamina in abundance — the odds of 25-1 available for the Albert Bartlett look good value.

The Mig

Irish point looks to be going Supreme Del so hopefully you’re on NRNB

https://twitter.com/roadcheltenham/status/1616540538232266753?s=46&t=0Z4UjVSScTSkBnycB8YP_A

howareyakid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120085876#Comment_120085876

This dart completely missed the target anyway, as he is no longer entered in the race! So I switched instead to another Gigginstown entrant, SEARCH FOR GLORY, at 33/1. This horse finished a length ahead of Embassy Gardens at Leopardstown over 2m 5f at Christmas – before his subsequent facile Thurles win saw him installed as current ante post favourite for the Albert Bartlett – and Good Land, who won the race at Christmas, backed up the from with his win again yesterday. Same as mentioned above, one would expect to see this horse entered in another race before Cheltenham if he is to go, and of course he would want to be winning a race if he has any ambitions of hitting the frame at Cheltenham. I see this horse is now 25/1 with Paddy Power. The AB is shaping up to be a very interesting and competitive race in any case!

howareyakid

I was looking forward to watching the ATR preview to hear Jamie Codd’s thoughts on Better Days Ahead, and his eyes seemed to light up when he was chatting about him! He was always likely to give a positive word but he definitely seemed to suggest that he’s showing a lot at home. Gordon has been positive on him as well. Again, probably to be expected, but after not really knowing how to feel, I have a renewed sense of confidence in the horse now! He gave Search For Glory a nice shout for the AB as well so all in all positive vibes for the ante-post picks. As I said in a previous post, it’s the hope that kills you, but what’s this game if you can’t get a little bit excited with some of the chat that flies around in the preview nights and in the build up!!