Time for a zero refugee policy? - *Read OP for mod warnings - updated 11/5/24*

tom23

that’s problem with SF…when you move into the same space as FF/FG you loose your core base. good enough for them they’ve sat on the fence that much they need a field hospital to remove the splinters from their arse.

I expect FF/FG and the green party idiots to form the next government. depressing.

L.Ball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121684093#Comment_121684093

Good thing the general election isn't tomorrow.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121684320#Comment_121684320

But no drop in support for the government. It does suggest that immigration / refugees is still only a fringe issue for most Irish people and not a burning priority. The Red C polls about refugee number are giving a hugely misleading impression of things - most people are not even discussing this in the real world.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121684318#Comment_121684318

But are the independents a 'group' when it comes to government formation, or will they be in the next Dail either? On paper FF & FG could have formed a government after the last GE with the support of 10-12 independents but it seems they never seriously considered that option, even though the Greens were demanding a much bigger input on national policy that the inds would have. Latest opinion polls suggest there is a good chance FF&FG will be able to put a government together with the support of Soc Dems, or Soc Dems + Greens + Labour, I reckon they'll thoroughly explore that option before they go anywhere near the independents...

Damien360

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121684646#Comment_121684646

You keep repeating that but it's simply not true from my perspective. It regularly comes up in discussion even in the workplace. I managed to get out last night to the pub and it came up in our discussion and crossed over to two other groups.

As for polls. Having been part of a couple of red c polls where they actually come to your door of your home, the questions are a strange mixed bag of definites with no grey area and repeat of the same question asked slightly differently. Based on your answers, you may fit a demographic statistically and they will come back to ask questions for other polls. You are asked if you would like to partake again as they leave. Therefore I don't believe they have a wide enough base to capture a mood at all. It's the same people over and over again.

malinheader

Sinn feins have sat on the fence long enough waiting to see if it's best to Back the immigration policies or call them out. Totally no interest in what is best for the country just what is best for them. No changes coming here.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121684687#Comment_121684687

Check out this poll from Northern Ireland during the week. 90% of people haven't posted a single thing about anything political on any social media platform in the last year, not even one post. I suspect the anti-immigration lobby are overestimating support for their position - they themselves are making a huge amount of noise on social media and flooding the platforms with videos, retweets, opinions and so on, but there's not much evidence this is cutting through to the wider public.

One could easily imagine a scenario where the local and European elections take place this summer and the refugee accommodation thing is barely even in the news.

https://twitter.com/jamiepow/status/1749889577429401624

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121684818#Comment_121684818

I wouldn't underestimate how vulnerable SF are on immigration.

I'll pose the question I always do. When is the last time you met a ra head who subscribes to SF's public position on immigration?

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121684858#Comment_121684858

I would agree and it's interesting that the party most vulnerable on this are SF themselves. Those who will have immigration / refugees as their No.1 issue are not the types who would be voting for FF, FG or the Greens anyway, so SF are the ones most likely to suffer.

It's a real dilemma for them as they have spent the last 10-15 years pitching themselves as left wing and a 'social justice' party .

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121684916#Comment_121684916

Can only speak for myself but the few SF supporters I know (real working class republican types, certainly their "core" voters), none of them subscribe to the party's public position. If anything it's the complete opposite.

Maybe there are some and I just haven't met them. It tells me SF have real problems on this issue.

TokTik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121684848#Comment_121684848

May as well post Lesotho or Fijis stats. All three have nothing to do with the Republic of Ireland

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121684936#Comment_121684936

As I said, it's a major dilemma for them. Can they adopt right wing positions on immigration and refugees and yet remain left wing on Gaza / Israel and social justice issues? I guess they never factored in immigration being an issue that could harm them with their own base.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121684963#Comment_121684963

Looks to me like they have boxed themselves in. It would be a bit weird to go right on immigration yet be on the left on Palestine for example.

Not saying that it can't work for them but it would be very odd and difficult to defend imo.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121684980#Comment_121684980

One suspects there may be divisions within the party themselves on this. Those who are mostly likely to be strongly sympathetic to Palestine are unlikely to be the ones who have an issue with refugees - but there may others who are feeling the heat from constituents over refugees and who are pushing the leadership for a change in direction.

Labour in Britain seem to have given up the ghost of even pretending to be a left wing or working class party. Under Starmer, they are much further to the right than FF or FG.

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121684963#Comment_121684963

Why would they? They are pro large scale uncontrolled immigration and if they get into power that is what we will get.

Policy on immigration cannot be changed at the ballot box. Most people know this. That is why we will continue to get seemingly contradictory polls. The majority will continue to poll against current government immigration policies but polls on support of the various parties will not change massively.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121685024#Comment_121685024

SF are down 4% in todays poll. To my mind the only issue that can have caused that in the last month is immigration. Nothing else has happened really I can think of to cause it. Most notable is the government parties are unchanged which means SF are leaking support mostly to independents.

malinheader

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121684858#Comment_121684858

Speaking for myself I have no idea what there position is, and as for their canvassers and pr crowd they haven't the slightest idea of what line to tow when questioned about immigration.

Anyway whoever comes in better is be ready for immigration issues as I can see this being a number one issue in the country very soon.

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121685043#Comment_121685043

Is that not just them returning to the norm though? They had been polling quite high for a while now, based maybe on bad feeling towards the government. People are now realising that all parties are aligned on mass immigration, so the impact of immigration on the polls should dissipate even more in time.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121684980#Comment_121684980

Another challenge of going right on immigration is that they'll be completely going again their likely coalition partners in SocDems, Labour and Greens. A shift right would be definitely palatable to FF though.

Jizique

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121685043#Comment_121685043

And they peaked at 36% 18 months ago, when nobody bothered about the issue

Strumms

Do a Google search for Racket Hall Hotel in Roscrea.... see the absolute luxury that we are paying to keep these people in...

Nuts...

'Protection' wasn't it 🤐

Sure no wonder thousands are arriving weekly.... staying in luxury accommodation for free... have the government no cop on at all ?

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121685067#Comment_121685067

I think the fact the government is mostly unchanged and the rise in support for independents is a pretty good clue that this issue is beginning to hurt SF. It's not surprising though given the communities where they get most support. The only surprise to me is that it didn't affect them sooner.

https://twitter.com/independent_ire/status/1751622098999554170

rdser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121684936#Comment_121684936

That's not specific to SF and I don't support them. But there are plenty of FFG supporters who dont support the party position. plenty.

SFs problem is they have been utterly woeful in opposition to a real piss poor government and have aligned their own policies close to those parties. That's not change, its just tinkering around the edges and people are seeing it.

It puts them firmly in the "they're all the same" boat for a lot of people.

bertieinexile

The Business Post analysis of that poll puts SFs drop down to their hardened line on immigration. I think the message of the poll is exactly the opposite.

SF are down 7% on Oct 2023.

Other Party, Independents and Aontu are up a combined 6% since then.

While all other parties reamined about the same.

As a party looking to appeal to protest voters it's not SF's harder line on immigration that has cost them - it's that they haven't hardened enough.

Strumms

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121685244#Comment_121685244

absolutely no will to do anything for Irish citizens… will only get worse too..

has any irish homeless person or anyone in difficulty ever been offered this likes of this..? Racket Hall hotel, where they are put up.

Packrat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121685375#Comment_121685375

It won't look like that for long more I assure you...

However, no need to worry, - by the time they're finished with it it'll have paid it's owner enough to knock it to the ground and build an even bigger version to house even more of our uninvited unwanted "guests"

That gravy train jes keeps on a rollin...

Every era ends though, often violently when the paymasters run out of money...

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121685024#Comment_121685024

4% swing against SF on immigration and no swing against the other parties would suggest this is not a major issue for the Irish public. That is less than one in every twenty people polled....there's not a shred of evidence this is seen as the No.1 issue affecting the country.

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121686576#Comment_121686576

Maybe not number one issue but an issue that most have a strong opinion on. As I said before, peoples opinions on immigration policies cannot have a major impact on support for the various parties, because all the parties are aligned on policy.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121686592#Comment_121686592

It was number three on the list last time when it was declared that it wasn't a big issue by the same poster who keeps repeating the same claim

StrawbsM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121686609#Comment_121686609

Was it not on a par with No2, percentage wise?