Six Nations 2023 General Discussion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120308255#Comment_120308255

A lot of their squad have played a huge amount of minutes this season. In that last 20 against Ireland they were slow off the ground, slow back to the line and falling off tackles. There is a case to be made that they're just bunched and could well be a different team come August.

I'm waiting until the warm up's before writing them off, same as I did with Ireland 19.

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120308389#Comment_120308389

yeah i think France are closer to where england were in 2019 than where we were. We were on a downward slope from the start of 2019 onwards, where we were well and truly spanked by england in dublin and wales in Cardiff. England under jones were very much targeting the rWC and Jones is well reported to have been completely pulverising them on the training field to get their fitness to the required levels. This resulted in a RWC final for them. Galthie is also reportedly crucifying the french in training and you can see their struggles at the closing of their 3 games so far this year.

So where is the tournament going from here? My predictions:

Firstly: This might be the best round of the Tournament. All good match ups and given the upswing in Italy's performance and the downswing in Wales this is as fascinating a match as the other two.

England will beat France at home. England were not the better team against Scotland, but comfortably accounted for the Italians and whilst they looked quite nervy against Wales I thought they looked in control throughout. Their attack is still a bit blunt but their defence is far less porous than it was in round 1. As I said in the post above, France look off their best - whether that's fatigue or if other teams have figured out how to shut down their play makers I don't know, but I reckon they'll struggle in Twickenham. Looking at a lot of their scores too - not that many team scores, a lot down to individual efforts or poor tackling from opposition.

Italy will beat Wales. Too close to call but slight advantage Italy. This is essentially both teams six nations. Wales won't beat France and Italy won't beat Scotland so if they want a win this tournament it needs to happen this round. I think Wales have more structure and a marginally better defence. Italy have a far superior attack albeit injuries will hamper this. Should be a cracker.

Ireland will beat Scotland. Scotland have improved, but more so in attach. I don't think their defence has moved on all that much. They'll put scores on us, particularly if we've injuries in mid field but they won't cross the line against us as much as they have with other teams. I think we'll win this one with room to spare, especially if the players expected to be available are available. I'm going to go so far as to say that by half time the game will have borderline gotten away from Scotland.

Final round:

Scotland will beat Italy

France will beat Wales

Ireland will beat England

On that final round against England, I reckon that might end up being our hardest game of the six nations but unless they cricket scores France the points difference would be insurmountable.

sydthebeat

On that final round against England, I reckon that might end up being our hardest game of the six nations but unless they cricket scores France the points difference would be insurmountable.

even if england win in the aviva, i cant see them overcoming our tournament points. Assuming neither ireland or england get TBPs in the next round, i cant see england TBP in the Aviva

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120308536#Comment_120308536

Yeah if it's 19 pts Ireland and 14 points England going into final around then we're safe. If England TBP and go onto 15 and we are on 19 I'd be more concerned but we'd still obviously be favourites.

Cosmo Kramer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120307777#Comment_120307777

I'm not sure it does to be honest. Obviously you'd want it to be as strong as possible, but different teams will go through bad periods at times.

Right now the tournament includes the number 1 and 2 teams in the world rankings, the best Scotland team in over 20 years and a resurgent and improving Italy. England are a bit dull to watch but they're not terrible all the same. It's one of the strongest years there has been, if not the strongest since the game went professional.

If Wales are poor for the next five years I honestly don't think it will matter all that much. Ireland and France will continue to be strong, England will likely improve, Scotland might go backwards a bit but Italy's curve is definitely upwards and beating Scotland and Wales might become fairly standard for them. If Wales improve then great, if not - meh, no big deal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120310466#Comment_120310466

People may well disagree with this but Lancaster leaving Leinster is one of my bigger concerns regarding how Ireland go the next few years.

Dubinusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120310561#Comment_120310561

And Leinster. I think he improves the quality of the young players. Since he's arrived, the lads fit in seamlessly to the team. That's why I reckon that Leinster will be good, not at the level we've been at.

standardg60

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120310682#Comment_120310682

I do wonder about him leaving tbh, Leinster were a shambles under Cullen initially before he came in, and Johnny has always sung his praises.

I feel he was peed off about not being offered the top job during the contract negotiations and said ok i'm off. Cullen is not the future for Leinster.

stephen_n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120311018#Comment_120311018

Cullen was in his first season of management. Identified his shortcomings and set about filling those gaps.

There is a huge difference now. People always seem to downplay Cullens role. The players don’t though, when they talk about him. Lancaster has been brilliant for us in partnership with Leo.

Losing a coach of the quality of Lancaster will always be an issue. Losing Sexton in the same season is less than ideal. Cullen has already proven his ability to rebuild though. So I would say Leinster are in safe hands. Goodman has already had a positive influence too.

standardg60

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120311062#Comment_120311062

The proof will be in the pudding, personally i think it's a mistake for the IRFU to let him go. Maybe it's all part of a masterplan to let him gain some head coach experience before coming back into the national team fold, as i think he's a natural successor to Farrell

Burkie1203

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120311105#Comment_120311105

Lancaster was out of contract. He was free to leave. IRFU didn't let him go

Jump_In_Jack

..

farmingquestion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120310561#Comment_120310561

Nah the structure we have here is amazing and unrivalled in the world.

The way rugby is managed in this country is elite. Contrast with the FAI who installed a league of Ireland manager to lead the team.

The private schools churn out talent year after year. The national team comes first ahead of the club game. That doesn't happen many other places. England and France you have private owners who only care about their team. Here we can make sure they don't play for the club if they need to be protected. Have a talent that needs gametime at a good level? Can send them to Munster or Ulster.

Dickie10

why dont wales and scotland follow that model or even italy? is it the same setup in New Zealand and that why they are so good? on another point is it just me or does their seem to be a bit of an underwhelming sense about irelands matches in the 6 nations this year, no huge hype or excitement of other years? will we ever get to a point that the general public would be putting out Irish flags and bunting for big rugby games like the soccer world cups in 90s ? a lot of the great irish public seem a bit meh about the rugby this year

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120329719#Comment_120329719

The massive thing that both Ireland and New Zealand had was that the "Provincial" structure already existed - They were pre-existing things that had a history both in Rugby terms but also in wider society so getting people to buy into the idea that they were represented by Leinster or Waikato or whatever was much much easier that the manufactured contrivance that is the Welsh regional set up.

The Governance in Wales bears absolutely huge responsibility obviously but the Welsh Rugby fans also never really bought into the team structure and fully supported the teams either.

Jump_In_Jack

Llanelli and Swansea are less than a half an hour from each other, they should merge.

Cardiff and Newport are also less than half an hour from each other, they should merge also.

Consider that Cork and Limerick are further apart and share their stadiums, and the whole expanse of the province is over a far greater distance.

South Wales should have 2 teams, and if they wanted a third team based somewhere else further away then maybe they could manage a third team, but realistically that about it.

Personally if I were to make the decision I'd pull the plug on Llanelli and Newport, and continue with two teams, Swansea Rugby and Cardiff Rugby.

Basically that's what Scotland ended up doing and it worked out better in the end.

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120330451#Comment_120330451

did it really?

a celtic league in 2015 is all scotland rugby has to show for itself in the last 23 years of rugby. 4 six nation wooden spoons in that period.

yes i agree scottish rugby is probably better run because of the two team system, but its difficult to argue its bettered Scottish Rugby in that period.

would wales be happy with a similar record?

in that period they can point to 6 celtic league wins and 6 six nations wins (including 4 grand slams)

i dont think welsh rugby at all would be happy to drop to two professional club teams from which to fill the test side. Its the governance of the WRU thats the biggest problem.

i really think there's sufficient finances within the game in wales to fund 4 teams, but on a model similar to NZ than ireland. "average" players in the NZ franchises do not command a huge salary. They average about £70,000 with the top level (test) players salaries being boosted by the NZRU by roughly the same figure. Its the WRU, or any professional equivalent, who need to design what these franchises should look like and encourage and grow the fan base behind them.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120311018#Comment_120311018

There’s not a single thing to suggest this is true.

Jump_In_Jack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120330587#Comment_120330587

Scotland are financially more stable than if they were trying to carry an extra couple of unsustainable clubs.

Wales have a greater rugby tradition so could probably support 3 teams, but realistically 4 teams is just making them uncompetitive. Their biggest problem is that they don't support their regional teams in big numbers to make them financially viable and by following the Scottish example there would at least be enough of a population in Swansea and Cardiff to sustain 2 teams, and over time the supporters may start to follow them. They could probably have a 3rd team somewhere further north, Llandovery or Merthyr perhaps, and maybe Llanelli would be preferred over Swansea due to their stadium, which is why a merger may be the best way forward for them.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120330881#Comment_120330881

You're talking about getting rid of their two historically successful professional teams though. You rightly pointed out that their geography is terrible, like having a Starbucks on every corner. You can drive to all 4 stadiums in around an hour. If a team was to be disbanded, it ought to be the Dragons, but they're the only one the WRU own outright. That'll never fly.

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120330881#Comment_120330881

WRU turned over £94.3m last year, which equates to €105m. IRFU recorded income last year of €116m, so not drastically different.

There is the financial ability in wales to fund 4 pro teams, but they MUST severely reduce the funding they provide to the amateur game in order to distribute their funds to properly finance the professional game.

The provinces have been poorly run, the amateur game has been let run away with itself, an the WRU at governance level is a total shambles. the whole lot needs to be disbanded and something else needs to arise from the ashes, preferably with a schism between the pro and amateur game.

with the IRFU, the amateur games at provincial level are funded and governed through the provinces, so i dont think this design of governance would suit the welsh game. therefore that's why i think a NZ style "franchise under licence" system would suit much better, where the franchises are part funded by the NZRU, but mainly funded by commercial activities of the licence holders. The most attractive and popular the franchises, the more funds for the franchises and the more profit for the licence holder.

for example. the highlanders were the last of the super rugby sides to sell off their licence to private investors in 2015, conveniently after winning SR 2015. the investors purchased a 5 years licence with a 90% share for 2016 + 17 and a 100% share for the next 3 years. The local clubs can absolutely be part of these private investors if they wish.

this gives you an idea of how it works:

https://www.odt.co.nz/sport/rugby/rugby-new-operators-highlanders

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/rugby-highlanders-secure-licence-in-perpetuity/FNG3RI4BG3D7YWYHHAZ2FSVLOQ/

Digifriendly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120330451#Comment_120330451

Try telling that to Scarlets supporters. They have won the league ×2 and Cardiff have never won it. Llanelli have a great history especially against touring teams.

Probably Ospreys will merge with Ealing and possibly Newport with Cardiff.

Cosmo Kramer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120330587#Comment_120330587

New Zealand's Franchises, of course, don't have to complete with another fully professional league based 50 miles down the road. As we're seeing now, as soon as the salaries drop to NZ kind of levels, any remotely decent player outside of the national setup is heading for England.

Anyway Gatty has been rearranging the deckchairs again, six changes for Italy, Rhys Webb in from the cold, Zammit dropped and Biggar nowhere to be seen. He must surely be setting a record for most match day personnel changes from game to game in tournament history here.

Former Former Former

Steward; Malins, Slade, Lawrence, Watson; M Smith, Van Poortvliet; Genge (capt), George, Sinckler; Itoje, Chessum; Ludlam, Willis, Dombrandt.

Replacements: Walker, M Vunipola, Cole, Ribbans, B Curry, Mitchell, Farrell, Arundell

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120335001#Comment_120335001

Wow...That's a hugely unexpected call.

A2LUE42

The pre-existing interpro teams in Ireland and the structures in each province gave the professional teams a 'history' that supporters rallied behind and supported, eventually. In the beginning, it was the club supporters going to see 'their' players on a European stage supplemented by casual supporters whose numbers increased dramatically when they were following successful teams. If they hadn't been successful, things could have been very different. In Wales, the clubs had that history and played touring teams. It has proved almost impossible for them to transfer that support to the regions in a similar way.

Family in Swansea would support Swansea and Wales, but would only have a passing interest in the Ospreys.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/mar/09/warren-gatland-significant-split-wales-strike-six-nations-rugby-union

Gatland is an absolute spoofer. Should never have gotten the job.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337163#Comment_120337163

His total abdication of any responsibility (or apparently knowledge) of the current situation despite being the most powerful person in Welsh rugby for a decade is farcical.

Ben Bailey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337163#Comment_120337163

Correct

Since

(A) The situation around WRU finances predated Pivac's sacking and Gatland's appointment, it cannot explain his lack of positive impact, and

(B) Gatland choosing to cite differences within the squad reflects poorly on his ability to bring his squad together, as many expected.