If the government called a general election tonight

ArmaniJeanss

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120262705#Comment_120262705

You are reading far too much into what count Simon Harris (or indeed anyone) got elected on. That figure is a function of many things, including how many candidates a party ran.

e.g., If Fine Gael had ran just two in Wicklow instead of the three they ran, then Harris would been elected far earlier. But that wouldn't make any difference to his overall popularity or suitability for Cabinet. Running more candidates than their upper seat expectation has been FG strategy recently and leads to such late-count-success outcomes. It will definitely be interesting next time when SF presumably use the same strategy, after having too few candidates in 2020.

Larbre34

Well, at least thanks to this mornings latest opinion poll, we have the answer to the original premise of this thread.

Govt ~90 seats.

SF ~60 seats

(or 100 / 65 for a 175 seat Dáil)

costacorta

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120194641#Comment_120194641

Back in your box mr SF spokesman as FG +3 and your party _3 . You must be raging?

Annasopra

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120240619#Comment_120240619

They could make Roscommon Galway East a 5 seater possibly

blanch152

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2023/0219/1357635-politics-poll-latest/

Seeing as this thread is the one about if there was a general election tonight, we should probably keep an eye on the polls.

The latest one see the Government parties with a combined 52% which would see them comfortably re-elected. Both FF and FG are a couple of percentage points above their general election performance while the Greens at 5% are not far off theirs. Biggest problem for the Greens would be like the other smaller parties who are losing seats to Sinn Fein.

Social Democrats are fast becoming an irrelevance and quite a number of independents would lose out on this basis. Get the sense that Mick Wallace in the news is not helping independents generally.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120263831#Comment_120263831

Thank you for being so considerate as to waste some of your braincells typing that. Evidently, the ones associated with counting were sacrificed previously as FG was up 4%.

Regards...jmcc

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120264693#Comment_120264693

That is outside the margin of error, isn't it, that 4% increase?

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120262822#Comment_120262822

FG overestimated its support and chose its candidates too early. It also left Charlie Flanagan and his Black and Tans/RIC commemoration lose a major part of FG's support. It was running close to 30% in the December prior to the 2020 GE but support dropped when the Black and Tans/RIC commemoration became an issue. FG might be unlikely to make a similar mistake in the event of a shock GE. It also has at least 8 of its TDs considering not running in the next GE. Who would replace them as candidates. SF might also have a similar issue with candidates.

The big problem for FFG in a shock election would be the Fratricide Effect where the electorate considers FF and FG to be the same party and thus a combined FF and FG would be running too many candidates for the number of seats. In such a situation, the votes necessary for a candidate to win would be locked in and would only come into play too late to affect the outcome and potentially leave a candidate with slightly more votes than either two FFG candidates each with slightly fewer votes win. This happened with FG in the 2020 GE with Waterford. FG had enough votes for a single candidate to win a seat easily and the votes were split over two canidates. The Green candidate has slightly more than either and because the FG votes stayed locked in until they could come into play, the Green candidate won. This type of effect could play out in a shock GE because there's no real differentiation between FF and FG. The Greens, on current polling, will struggle to retain three seats as will Labour.

The immigration issue (not the refugee issue) would be a factor in a shock GE and it would affect all parties. It is the kind of thing that will polarise support and could cost FF and FG marginal seats where their candiates won on later counts in the 2020 GE. It could also see SF and PBP losing seats though SF might not be a badly impacted as most of its suport is in younger demographics. There's no party in place with the necessary national support (consistently polling around 5% in the national opinion polls) to exploit this so what may happen (in a shock GE) is an increase in single-issue Independent candidates. It would take another GE cycle or so for various Right of centre and Right wing parties to gain enough support for Dail seats but the sheer incompetence of FFG could change that. It is a highly volatile situation and FFG, SF and fringe opposition parties like Labour, the SocDems and PBP might want to avoid a shock GE because of the sheer unpredictability of the outcome.

Regards...jmcc

ArmaniJeanss

Waterford was interesting for FG alright (and general PRSTV fans). 16.5% between their two candidates and yet no seat won in a 4seater. Fairly disastrous. Looking at it now the transfers from FG2->FG1 were somewhat poor. Only 2800 transferred properly, 600 went Green, 1200 went to FF and 1600 went Independent.

Presumably there were local issues with people transferring from Local Candidate One to Local Candidate Two rather than FG->FG. Can happen in big constituencies. Will be interesting to see what they do in 2025 but looks very difficult for them to win a seat.

Waterford (Dáil constituency) - Wikipedia

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120264770#Comment_120264770

I think the analysis of the Waterford constituency is too simplistic.

On first count figures with 16.52%, you would expect FG to take a seat. However, that is at the bottom of the lower range.

Firstly, 20% is needed for a single candidate in a 4-seater to be elected on the first count, so at 16.52% it isn't true to state that FG had enough votes for a single candidate to win easily. Secondly, the poor transfer rate of 64% between the two candidates reflects that they were appealing to different segments of the electorate, and it could have been difficult for a single candidate to achieve that 16.52% result. Finally, that count was skewed by the 38% that Cullinane got, and the Green candidate got nearly 2,000 votes from him in transfers, which meant that by only the second count, the Green candidate had more votes than the combined FG candidates.

Next time out will be interesting. SF will run two candidates, but they will be targetting Matt Shanahan rather than either of the government seats. Will make for an interesting time. However, the population growth (127,085) means that Waterford will probably be a five-seater next time out. It could see a battle for the last two seats between FG, SF and Greens, with FF, Ind and SF taking the first three.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120264820#Comment_120264820

Waterford is actually two constituencies: the city and the county. FG was running a city candidate (Cummins) and a county candidate (Geoghan). Shanahan was the hospital campaigner candidate and a lot of ex-FG voters voted for him. The LEs saw an obliteration of FG in the areas where it previously won seats and it was directly due to the neglect of the hospital by FFG. The Green got a lot of SF transfers which would not be there in a shock GE or even the next one. SF's vote management may improve and it could end up getting a second seat at the expense of O'Cathasaigh/Greens. Butler/FF is a county candidate. What people don't understand about Waterford is that it is a real city unlike a county town like Galway. That means that when votes shift, they do so en-masse. Labour found that out the hard way in 2016. Its candidate was essentially frozen out for having gone against the city. There is a risk for Butler in that she is seen as too close to the execrable Martin and that's a toxic association for any FFer. I think that FG could win a seat in Waterford but Cummins would need to learn how to win friends and influence people first.

That Fratricide Effect is a real danger for FFG because it will amplify the competition between FF/FG candidates and could have them knocking each other out. The extreme outcome would be that so many FF/FG seats would be lost that an SF majority government (a single party government) would be possible. Not sure if it will come to that. FF's demographics are not great in that its support is in older demographics. There will also be a Border Poll within the lifetime of the next government or the one after it. Some real FFers (Cowen etc) have been focusing on the need for FF to take ownership of that issue. The problem is that Martin is very much seen as a grovelling neo-Unionist and that would cause a shift of potential Reunited Ireland supporters to SF or, strange as it seems, FG.

The only advantage that FF has at the moment is the dislikeable Varadkar as leader of FG. Every time he opens his mouth without thinking, he costs FG votes. He needed to be replaced as soon as it was determined that he leaked that document to his friend. An FG with Donohoe leading it would be a more formidable opponent for FF and SF. Knowing FG's history of chosing losers as leaders, it could even end up with the useless Harris or the even more useless McEntee as the next leader. With Varadkar in charge, FG is ill-prepared for a real GE let alone a shock GE.

Regards...jmcc

Larbre34

And how will there be a shock GE without Varadkar himself seeking a dissolution of the Dáil?

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120264770#Comment_120264770

It would take another GE cycle or so for various Right of centre and Right wing parties to gain enough support for Dail seats but the sheer incompetence of FFG could change that.

But another GE cycle would likely take us into the late 2020s, and God knows what the political weather will be like by then, or whether immigration will still be a major issue. Not unreasonable to hope the Ukraine conflict reaches some resolution in the near future, the flood of refugees slows to a trickle, those Ukranians already here who want to stay are quietly assimilated and the whole thing falls down the political agenda the way covid has.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120264989#Comment_120264989

You often make reasonable points, but this analysis has slipped into the bizarre.

(1) There is no way that any amount of fratricide between FF and FG could result in SF on around 30% securing an overall majority. You posit that such an extreme outcome is possible. You are leaving out the fact that Sinn Fein have proven themselves dreadful in vote management - look at the time they ran three candidates in Donegal and lost a seat as a result, as well as the fact that they didn't even have credible candidates in some constituencies last time out, yet alone running mates.

(2) Since Varadkar has become Taoiseach in December, FG are up four points in the opinion polls. He is hardly costing them votes as you opine. At the moment he is being quite successful in two areas, firstly in exposing SF which is welcome, and secondly, which I am not so sure about, in toning up the rhetoric on refugees which being second generation is about the only politician who can safely do so. So, gaining them votes rather than losing them as you think.

(3) 16.6% guarantees a first-count seat in a five-seater. As I said in an earlier post, Waterford going to a five-seater, which the demographics demand, changes the dynamics. You fail to account for this in your analysis.

(4) A border poll is not a domestic issue and a belief that it will happen within the lifetime or this or the next Government remains fanciful.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120265467#Comment_120265467

There has been a shock general election predicted on here since around May 2020. Still waiting.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120264989#Comment_120264989

@jmcc

What is meant by the sentence:

"Waterford is a real city, unlike a county town like Galway"?

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120266085#Comment_120266085

Waterford city grew organically outward as a city. Galway did not as it was a county town that had villages and other bits added to increase its size by legislation in order to make it a city. With a city, a kind of single cultural identity develops over hundreds of years but with an assembled city, the old village identities still exist. The bulk of the population in Waterford is concentrated in the city and in a small geographical area.

During the Covid lockdowns when people could not venture more than a few kilometres from where they lived, it was largely irrelevant for densely populated cities. That high concentration of population in a small geographical area is what differentiates a city from a town. The political effect of that shared identity and concentration of population is that it can create electoral stability for decades but when votes move, they really move quickly. Rather than large parties simply losing a seat or two, they can be nearly wiped out at a Local Election and General Election level within a single LE/GE cycle. This happened to FF in Waterford and also to FG. Cities can switch parties quickly because of the density of votes. The voting patterns in towns, villages and rural areas are often slower to change.

Regards...jmcc

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120267606#Comment_120267606

Is Dublin then an assembled city and not really a city?

Summerhill, Stoneybatter, Ringsend, Irishtown, the Liberties, Chapelizod, Smithfield, Portobello, Phibsboro, Islandbridge, and there are many more that are all considered part of the city but which retain a distinct identity.

In a Waterford context, what about Ferrybank? Or Ardkeen, Ballybeg and Kilbarry?

blanch152

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/support-for-social-democrats-more-than-doubles-after-holly-cairns-becomes-leader-poll-shows-42369964.html

New opinion poll out at the weekend.

Headline correctly identifies the two major trends.

The new party leader bounce has certainly worked well for the Social Democrats, up to 9%. One note of caution though, is that Ireland Thinks always have the SDs at the higher end of their pollings. The previous high of 7% since the last election for the SDs, was in two Ireland Thinks polls. No other polling company has had them higher than 6% since the last election, so a repeat of the 9% in the next poll would be interesting. In particular Red C and B&A have never had them above 4%.

The other aspect is the decline in support for Sinn Fein. This can't be attributed to the quirks of different polling companies, unlike the SD increase. SF were at 37% last summer in the Ireland Thinks poll. A decline to 29% since is therefore statistically significant. The problem for the government is that that SF decline is going to all parties.

Relax brah

FG + FF

SF can’t even manage the north never mind the republic.

blanch152

https://irishelectionprojections.com/2023/03/10/february-2023-projections-update/

Sinn Fein still out ahead, but a downward trend clearly identified.

Interesting thoughts on the Social Democrats bounce.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120352845#Comment_120352845

Actually quite a good read. Given that the projected seat loss is a very marginal call to Peadar Tobin though, I'd still say reports of their death are premature so to speak.

If things went as projected, the only government I can see formed is SF/FF; any arrangement that contains FF/FG would need another two parties, a stack of independents or a combination thereof....potentially almost as chaotic as a left coalition would be.

.....I'd almost love to see it though, just to hear the outrage of people who don't understand how elections work, shouting about how SF were elected and FF/FG conspired to keep MLMD from her throne!

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120353090#Comment_120353090

The current government are on 75 in that projection, which isn't far off the 80, and in a situation where there are 20 extra seats because of population growth, a couple of percentage points each, the bounce of the transfer ball and they could have a safe majority. That isn't a huge leap.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120354100#Comment_120354100

I caveated with, 'if things went as projected'. Obviously if things didn't go as projected, the outcomes change.

Putting that aside, I think finding an extra five seats is a bigger leap than you're suggesting. I'd be more confident of them dropping below 70 than pushing on to 80+ in the next election myself, though I've been wrong before!