If the government called a general election tonight

bucketybuck

Every time some clown plays the "Sein Fein are the boogyman" card it just makes me want to vote for them more.

road_high

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120196560#Comment_120196560

Then I think you’re a little adrift of the public sentiment (I mean that with the greatest due respect)- my family are dye in the wool FG- from a farm in the south east of the country. Couldn’t be more FG if we tried. Absolutely none of us are voting FG in the next election- things were bad in the party but Varadkar has absolutely destroyed it. It competes with Labour now for empty wokeness. I want low taxes and minimum government interference in my life- FG give me the reverse. The likes of Mcentee, Harris, are really terrible ministers- damaging in fact. Couple them with the likes of R O’gorman and Ryan in the Greens you can see why the country is in such trouble now. Also all horrible unlikeable zero personality thought police zealots.

I genuinely believe FG could dip below 20 seats if they went to the country tomorrow.

griffin100

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120196615#Comment_120196615

As SF used to say when I lived in North Belfast in the mid 1990's,'vote early and vote often.'

road_high

Even after a supposedly “generous” budget FG are still floundering in the polls- people feel and see the complete opposite to their propaganda in their pockets reflected in their pay packets- all I see is an eye watering list deductions that I get absolutely nothing back in return for- “abolish the USC” anyone?

FG reward the work shy and people that never contributed a cent to the country.

MegamanBoo

I'll be a reluctant SF voter.

Ffg will never fix health or housing.

While I'm doing ok financially for the moment, I want to know my kids can own a home.

It's a long way off yet but I don't want to be in my seventies afraid to go to hospital for fear of being left to die on a trolley.

It's beyond FFG to improve either of these areas because all they can do is spout management speak and throw money at the private sector.

Sleepy

road_high, I get that people are frustrated with the government but where will those votes transfer to? While some FF voters may be that way inclined, those who've historically voted for FG are never going to transfer to SF.

Those that want "low taxes and minimum government interference in my life" are never voting for Sinn Fein (or most other left wing parties) so will either stay at home (rendering their opinion of the next government or the running of the country worthless) or, more likely imo, transfer to a local independent candidate who, being an independent, can usually be easily bought off in government formation negotiations with some pork barrel local issue...

eggy81

I honestly haven’t got a notion who I’d vote for at the moment. I don’t think it’d be sinn fein. But I’d struggle to vote for ff or fg either. No idea.

road_high

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120196845#Comment_120196845

A lot in that boat. SF aren’t the answer that’s for sure. The public are ripe for more right leaning candidates- the media establishment will resist this at all costs

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120196560#Comment_120196560

If we go by this guy's projection

https://irishelectionprojections.com/2023/02/01/january-2023-projections-update/

the numbers are just about there for such a government (assuming 5 or 6 of those independents are biddable) but it's very tight. A swing of a point or two more to SF and it'll be realistically impossible to form a government without them.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120195675#Comment_120195675

It may develop into a rat run with FFG politicians who were elected on later counts deciding against running.There is a few good journalists who seem to have realised that a kind of once in a generation shift is happening. The institutionalised press release recyclers still have their heads embedded in the FFG collective anus swallowing anything it emits. There's also the government advertising and zero VAT support that has helped dampen some of the criticism of FFG mismanagement in the wider media.

The people who think that FF/FG is a certainty at the next GE do not seem to have considered that there has been a generational change in the electorate and many of those who are now becoming eligible to vote were children during the Property Bubble. They saw the damage it caused to their families and parents. Unsurprisingly, they are reluctant to vote for the politicians in FFG who are guilty of inflicting stupid economic policies on the Irish people. SF and the SocDems are beneficiaries of their votes.

That generational shift has been behind some of the increase in SF support. Now, the real problem for FFG/Lab is the Nursing Home refunds scandal. That's damaging FFG/Lab support in the older demographics on which FFG/Lab depends. It is a betrayal of FFG/Lab's most consistent voters.

That can work out in two ways. The first is that these voters will be angry and will vote for SF candidates. That may not happen in sufficient numbers because of the natural conservatism of older voters. They had to endure decades of propaganda with the Stickies/Eoghan Harris anti-Irish brainwashing from RTE and from the incessant FG propaganda from IN&M when Dinny O'Brien was the largest shareholder.

The second is that these former FFG/Lab voters may vote Independent rather than SF or not vote. A genepool Independent would be the ideal way for these older voters to express their anger with FFG/Lab while not significantly changing their support. The effect of those angry older voters deciding not to vote would be absolutely devastating for FF, FG. Both parties would be looking at a seat collapse into the low 20s.

At the moment, there is a very real prospect of an SF majority government because of the collapse of the FFG/Lab vote. Opinion polls for the last six months or so have been largely static with few movements outside the Margin of Error. The problem is that these only ask about first preference votes. Lower preferences matter and determine who, other than the poll-toppers get elected. The effect of the angry older voters not voting will be amplified in the later counts and may cause a lot of FFG backbenchers to lose their seats.

It is funny to read the waffle from some FFG supporters about opinion polls and "science" while in reality they haven't a clue about opinion polls. I tend to be a bit cynical about this but I did call the spread on the Big Three Parties in 2016 and point out the inherent instability of the big three model with no two of the Big Three having enough seats to form a government. It was apparent by 2015 that the Big Three model was replacing the 2.5 party model.

It is the floating vote and not the party supporter vote that decides GEs. That floating vote nearly destroyed FF in 2011 and Labour in 2016. A rise in undecided voters in the opinion polls is always an indication of an electoral shock on the way. The other problem is more complex because Irish pollsters don't publish it. That's the non-response rate. These are people who refuse to be surveyed in an opinion poll. If an opinion poll has a sample of 1,000 voters and a pollster is told to feck off by 200 voters it is not a sample of 1,000 but rather one of 1,200. Without that non-response rate, it is difficult to determine the reliability of these opinion polls.

Some of the FFG politicians seem to be realising that their political careers may be about to be suspended for a GE cycle or two and are deciding not to run again. They are the smart ones. An SF majority government is a possible outcome but so too is a new, more conservative party that takes seats from FF, FG and SF. If there is a Motion of No Confidence in the next few weeks and the government falls, the latter is not going to have time to get established. If SF is close to 40% in the next opinion poll then there may be more FFG politicians deciding to retire to spend more time with their families.

Regards...jmcc

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120196560#Comment_120196560

It is possible though, given the current state of the parties. However, I don't put much faith in opinion polls until an election is called, and we will see then.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120196920#Comment_120196920

Being elected on later counts is of no consequence whatsoever, this trope is trotted out at an alarming rate by people who don't understand the transferrable vote system. It is not a sign of political weakness.

Honestly, I don't really get what your post was about. The polls have been indicating a SF majority government for a year or two now. There's nothing surprising about that, nor does it take some genius political insight to see it. For SF to do anything other than top the polls in the next GE would take a collapse of monumental proportions at this stage. You're not saying anything that every single person on this thread doesn't aleady know.

The interesting thing is not who will the largest party after the next GE, since the world and it's dog knows that's likely to be SF. The interesting thing is how the other parties do, because it's highly likely SF are going to be dependent on FF to get a majority that'll work. If they can't get FF on board, then a SF + loony left alphabet soup + independent government is going to be a very unstable mess, that will likely be very short lived.

The other possibility, though more unlikely, is that FG + FF + GP can still make a majority. I believe the most recent opinion poll indicated this. I'm not sure what the appetite would be from any of the 3.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120196979#Comment_120196979

A majority government typically means that a party has enough seats to form a government on its own. Otherwise a coalition of parties or minority government is necessary.

A party needs to be consistently polling around 40% to have a chance at a majority government. The opinion polls for the last few years have not indicated that any political party has enough support to form a majority government.

As for the transfers issues, what happened to Labour in 2016 is a classic example of a transfers dependent party being demolished when the transfers on which it depended stayed within the parties like FF and FG. The Greens and the SocDems in 2020 were examples of what happens when transfers don't stay within a party's candidates (SF).

In the next GE, FF and FG will be competing for the same preferences and while FF and FG as a single party might have enough votes to get a candidate elected, those candidates will be competing against each other and will take those votes out of play and could very well allow a candidate with more votes than them individually to win the seat despite the two candidates having enough votes to ge a single candidate elected easily. This happened in 2020 and Varadkar was proposing an electoral pact for FF and FG a few weeks ago. It would, of course, need some joined-up thinking on candidate strategy and this is why there was some reluctance. It is not only the numbers of transfers that matter. When they come into play in the counts also matters.

Regards...jmcc

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120197017#Comment_120197017

There is no real chance of a single party SF government. It is extremely unlikely.

SF have very likely reached their peak appeal. They have eaten the dinner of the other parties on the left, and taken what they can from FF.

skimpydoo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120196920#Comment_120196920

As always jmcc you explain it so well.

I can see a motion of no confidence called within the next few weeks and any TD's that don't back it could possibly lose their seats.

What current government ministers do you think will lose their seats?

screamer

No idea tbh as bad as each other really. However I think SF in danger of losing the next election as their main support base is rising up and SF seem to have the same approach as other parties (as I said all the same). A more right of centre option would probably gain traction these days, I won’t be surprised to see one setup.

road_high

SF are ananother woke left wing party- I think they’ve peaked also. The mood of the nation has shifted and voting in an even more incompetent version of what’s there already is pretty pointless. SF are all for open borders, high tax, anti business/anti self progression. They make me want to vomit tbh. They are beyond useless and if the current government wasn’t so bad would rightly be seen as the bad joke they are.

road_high

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120197034#Comment_120197034

I don’t think SF want that themselves- there’s no real hunger from their side to govern. If there is I certainly don’t see it. Last election Mary Lou was tripping over her ample frame to land her arse back in opposition. They’ll do their usual droning on about “change”- which is actually the last thing SF want or could handle

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120197034#Comment_120197034

Electoral politics is a sequence of events that people, at one time or another, thought were unlikely.

The Irish political model seems to be realigning around a Left/Right axis like some other European countries. FF/FG are effectively coalescing on the Right of the axis and SF is to the Left. SF has also been moving more towards the centre to occupy the space that FF surrendered on its move towards the Right. Labour had deserted its Working Class Left supporters and voters and shifted towards the Right hence its repeated alliances with FG. With this realignment, FF and FG are going to take Labour seats just as SF may take some Left seats. The use of PR-STV reduces the extreme effects of First Past The Post voting that causes massive swings in elections but the change has been happening. There was a time when FF and FG had over 80% of the votes and seats. Even 20 years ago SF had only 4 seats or so. Now, it has more support than either FF or FG and more seats than FG. That is the effect of a generational change in the electorate.

Regards...jmcc

maccored

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120197034#Comment_120197034

the 'peak appeal' part is something that is stated nearly every election. someone on here just to say it all the time

maccored

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120197111#Comment_120197111

sounds like they frighten you to be honest. Im going to give them the vote, and if they get in, judge them on their actions - not pretend I have an iota of an idea of how they will perform because we just dont know. Dont even mention the north. Anyone with a brain understands the NI Executive is a bit of a strange setup. Neither FG, FF or the greens could handle the DUP

Kyokushin Grappler

Irish Freedom Party

Aountu

And maybe even the National Party

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120197182#Comment_120197182

By peak appeal, I don't mean they're on a downward trajectory. I think they'll hold fairly steady at where they are at barring some gaffe or scandal, but it will be difficult for them to grow beyond their current appeal.

If they want to grow more, they need more centrist appeal. How can they increase their centrist appeal without alienating the socialist types they already have on board? If they go more to the left, they lose the centre.

IMO they've eaten the dinner of the small socialist-type parties, and have taken the left-er parts of the soft-FF vote. Winning over more will be a hard sell.

maccored

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120197204#Comment_120197204

they dont need a centerist appeal - they need to get into power with like minded parties and make a change for the better for the country. that will convince people to support them

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120197037#Comment_120197037

It would be almost impossible to say exactly which would lose their seats but those who may be safe would be the ones who won on the first counts in 2020. They may have enough support to not have to rely too heavily on transfers in the next GE.

Depending on the wording of the MNoC, some government TDs might vote against the government without the government falling (some Independents might be needed). Some Greens already did vote against the government and lost the whip for a while. STV elections can be so strange that it would not be surprising to see the Greens pick up a second seat in Dublin Bay South while losing almost every one of their seats in other constituencies.

Regards...jmcc

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120197220#Comment_120197220

Do you consider FF a like minded party?

maccored

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120197224#Comment_120197224

if that happened I would never vote SF again - not unless it was the only way and FF were very much the junior party. Even then though, I'd still be pissed off. there has to be more scope than FF or FG - which come next election you'd never know, there might be. Itd be nice to see FF get decimated again and FG following them

Also, if SF got in power and were worse than the present, they'd never get my vote again. I feel though they deserve a chance

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120197071#Comment_120197071

In recent terms, (excluding the Blueshirts in the 1930s), Ireland has not really had a genuine Right of centre party. The PDs were really just Provisional Fianna Fail. There is a gap in the political market for a Right of centre party but the clientalism model of Irish politics (politicians getting passports and other things for voters) works against it. It would require SF to be in government and a fracturing of FF and FG. The result would be a kind of centrist FFG and a more Right of centre party. If the illegal immigration problem is not sorted out quickly with genuine refugees being given asylum then that will accelerate the emergence of such a party and could take seats from FF/FG and SF.

Regards...jmcc

maccored

anyone who thinks people giving out about migrants is the SF main support base, needs to educate themselves about SF itself. The issue is bad management.

Cluedo Monopoly

Independent #1