EV sales nose dive in Germany

podge1979

Sign of things to come if grant changes are made here in July.

Looks like even the Tesla price drop didn't have too much impact there? As the price drop was in Jan in Germany too right?

https://thedriven.io/2023/02/07/electric-car-sales-plummet-in-germany-following-subsidy-cut/

slave1

I'd imagine any smart purchaser would have made sure of a "pre-grant removal" purchase so December figures likely a high outlier.

Use of words like "plummet" tend to be clickbait

ELM327

A non issue. We are not demand constrained so a grant is not needed

Even the article said it

" VDA said. In total, it expects sales of about 510,000 battery electric vehicles in 2023, eight percent more than last year"

magicbastarder

yeah, could easily be a december spike as people rushed to buy or register cars while the grant was still available. the data for december alone wouldn't be very instructive.

rob808

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120215536#Comment_120215536

Once the grant gone here EV sales will drop.I think it was silly to drop the grant since we pay way to much for cars with a high VRT in ireland.

They should had reduced VRT on cars first then drop the grant so we're not paying mad money for cars.

joe1303l

Public charging costs could be the biggest factor here, recent price increases by eCars and EasyGo have DC rates close to 70c per kWh. At those prices you’re competing head on with diesel.

accensi0n

https://insideevs.com/news/630785/germany-plugin-car-sales-december2022/

Surge in December though. Sounds a bit like Christmas clothes shop sales, 75% off, but they actually jacked up the price just before.

Padre_Pio

Pure clickbait.

Surge in December!!!!

Plummet in January!!!

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120215698#Comment_120215698

Theres up to a year backlog on most cars. It won't drop at all.

VRT on EVs is very low already, zero below 40-50k OMSP. Above that it's only 7%. The big tax is actually the 23% VAT!

podge1979

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120215841#Comment_120215841

Sorry I don't get what you mean clickbate!! The removed incentives sales dropped, are you saying there'll be another surge in Feb?

The reductions in Tesla price for instance would have offset any incentives so shouldn't that have had some effect?

quokula

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120216646#Comment_120216646

Tesla's sales in Germany are up 900% in January 2023 vs January 2022. Doesn't seem too bad.

As others have mentioned, there was a big spike in December due to the impending changes to the grant. So of course January is going to be down on that. Over the year sales are still projected to be higher than 2022.

AMKC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120215752#Comment_120215752

No your not. You can not get a litre of diesel for 70cent it's at least double that.

Bovakinn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120216705#Comment_120216705

1 litre of Diesel will get you much further than one kWh of electricity though. The prices are similar in terms of cost per km travelled.

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120216705#Comment_120216705

Price per km driven

podge1979

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120216680#Comment_120216680

Context on the other side of that no giga factory Germany deliveries in Jan 2022 Q1 came from China so Feb/March would have been the delivery window in 2022.

101,000 to 18,000 is a fair drop when considering dropped incentives but the price cuts would have meant no real overall difference in price.

Mantis Toboggan

Problem for EV's is huge increase we've seen in electricity prices. Back in 2018 I was paying 15 cent a kw now I'm on 33. Sure I can get it much less on a day night meter but you're looking at 40 cent plus during the day for your heating and everything else. You need to be doing a lot of driving to be saving money on fuel.

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120217186#Comment_120217186

But you can just shift consumption to the night, washing clothes and dishes at night. And the biggest heating load is at night anyway

I'm not doing big mileage and I'm using around 45-50% at night and it works out cheaper than 24 hours rate

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120218794#Comment_120218794

Do you just ignore the oft repeated warnings from the fire services not to run electrical equipment that heats things at night?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120218794#Comment_120218794

😂😂

Fingleberries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058283431/ev-sales-nose-dive-in-germany

For this type of article, month-over-month comparison probably does not make great sense when comparing sales figures. A better comparison would be year-over-year for sales of an item to see what January last year was like.

In December, there appears to have been a glut of sales as people got in before the grant was finished (a one-off bump in sales, and perhaps people who had originally planned to pick one up in Jan rushed their purchase to beat this deadline).

In Ireland, there is probably a big dip in car sales in June every year, as everyone waits for their xx2 licence plate. So the news story could read that there was a massive drop in car sales (comparing Jan to June), or if the author wanted to put a positive spin on it they could write in August that there was a massive bump in July (comparing July to June).

This sort of y-o-y comparison makes sense for sales all items, not just EVs. For example: Apple iPhone or iPad releases are like clockwork every year, so sales of the previous gen may taper off a bit before the new ones are announced.

(To take it to the extreme for comedy sake: "People hate Christmas trees, as 98% drop in sales of trees" -- using figures for January sales compared to December)

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120217186#Comment_120217186

My night rate is 7c, and we're coming in to the months of the year where I wont be paying a cent for electricity. Solar PV.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120218907#Comment_120218907

If you listened and heeded every warning you'd never leave the house. I've been running my whole house off night rate for years with stuff running overnight. Now as I have 20kWh of batteries and 8kWp solar PV, I dont need to set timers etc as I always have electricity in the batteries and never pay day rate anyway.

mickdw

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219057#Comment_120219057

Sounds like a great setup. Big outlay I assume.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219084#Comment_120219084

Yup, one off cost - funded in part by different taxpayer grants - for drastically reduced bills in perpetuity.

feelings

Anything to do with the fact it's hard to get a PHEV or EV? In a large garage last weekend who said they're not taking any more PHEV or EV orders for foreseeable. Deliveries for Jan now pushed to April/May.

Berty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219247#Comment_120219247

For Hyundai, PHEV orders seem to be an issue, at least in Ireland. I know people in the UK who got their Hybrids a few weeks early but PHEVs are pushed again and again. I know my own Hyundai dealer(have PHEV ordered) said they cannot take PHEV orders. I spoke to Hyundai who mentioned it also, that was late January when I was told.

Take Tesla for example, if you order a car today you might get it in X timescale but then again, as we know from this forum, there are people with more than one Tesla ordered and in the vast majority of cases I'd say they only want one and will cancel the other. Will that itself have a detrimental effect on leadtimes for somebody wanting to order today? I would say definitely.

Prices in the US changed based on their changes to tax relief on BEVs, Germany was affected by similar causing this spike/lull in sales between months. We are experiencing it because of a price drop but will experience another when the news about SEAI changes come out.

eagerv

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219404#Comment_120219404

Our house , like many, has us all working at different times. I am rarely in bed before 2am atm, washing machine/dishwasher usually finished by then. Herself is up at about 5.30 am and if need be puts on a wash then, so usually someone is up when machines are on.

But still would not be worried, make sure you have loads of smoke detectors around house, even if they are a pita when you burn the steak..😊.

Sorry for adding to the thread drift.

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219426#Comment_120219426

Well I respect the opinions of the fire brigade, and hopefully I never need to use their services, but in this case I'll have to disagree with them

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219448#Comment_120219448

Nah thread drift is what we're all about 😁

I don't really have much choice, heating comes from the heat pump so unless it's powered by magic at night or I'm happy to freeze while sleeping (I'm not) then heating will be running during the night

Mantis Toboggan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219387#Comment_120219387

Wow, you enlightened me there, technology to run the run heat all night, fantastic Raisin.

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219486#Comment_120219486

No problem at all my friend 😘

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120215529#Comment_120215529

Yeah, an 83% decline in sales is just a slight decline. Clickbait nonsense.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219247#Comment_120219247

I'd take a stab at guessing logistics in Germany are probably ever so slightly better than in Ireland.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219229#Comment_120219229

You don't have to, just put the machine on a timer and kill yourself and the kids.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230206-mother-seven-children-die-in-fire-in-france

8 people are dead for the sake of a few cents.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219518#Comment_120219518

We see this pattern every time incentives are reduced, savvy shoppers will bring forward a purchase to ensure they can benefit. There are some not so savvy people who can't figure out this "one trick to save money", there's an interesting correlation between people who fail to plan ahead being the same who think the sky is falling when the numbers drop dramatically the first months after the incentives are removed.

crisco10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219543#Comment_120219543

There is a middle ground on this, as for example @eagerv has described. Night rate is also a misnomer to an extent, it could also be described as early morning rate. 60% of the year it goes until 9am.

We are aware of the fire risk, so in our house the machines are loaded in evening, but delays set for them to start at 6.30/7am when everyone is getting up - but last thing in the world you want to do is be turning on machines when being chased out of bed by the kids. Nonetheless, machines are on, on the night rate and "supervised".

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219613#Comment_120219613

How much do you save per load?

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219572#Comment_120219572

Nice attempt, but I don't live in Germany.

crisco10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219658#Comment_120219658

Depends what I'm washing. Nappies need higher temps, so would save about 50c a load. Normal clothes wash, maybe half that.

So that's about e1.50 a week based on 2 loads of each a week. Doesn't sound much but if someone gave me e75 every 31st December, I'd take it.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219543#Comment_120219543

Why dont you link to the number of kids killed by cars when crossing the road.

Road deaths per capita is higher than deaths in all home fires, not even narrowing it down to fires caused by faulty electrics

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219663#Comment_120219663

It's probably going to be a huge shock for you when the exact same happens here when grants are reduced. Or maybe you'll have learnt something by being involved in this discussion.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219543#Comment_120219543

Good to see you cnocbui, you haven't been around for a while.

Agreed on the risks with dryers especially if the filters are left dirty: It's the only type appliance alongside fan heaters and such I personally wouldn't risk running at night. Any appliance containing liquid like central heating, oil filled radiators, washing machine are very unlikely to burn the house. The dishwashers apparently have a slightly higher risk of fire. That being said even mobile phones have in some random cases caused fires. But how often that happens I believe is "not often". There must be 2 million of them in use in Ireland alone and I have never seen news article about fires here.

Based on research I did some years ago I would not loose any sleep (pun intended) on running washing machine or even a dishwasher at night.

Fingleberries

Crikey, folks, I had to double-check that I was on the EV forum here with all the laundry tips flying about.

Since we're full-on drift mode, I'd just like to add: "Blanchardstown Shopping Centre as a charging hub", "CHAdeMO vs CCS on public chargers" and "AC plugs on HPCs". 😁

For the topic of EV sales in Germany for Jan 2023:

There is an effect among consumers, sometimes called the Osborne effect where customers may cancel or defer orders for the current, soon-to-be-obsolete product as an unexpected drawback of a company's announcing a future product prematurely.

Conversely, if there is a known price-increase to occur at a particular time (as in the government supports expiring in Germany), consumers may bring forward a purchase to take advantage of this scheme. Look at how many people drive to a petrol station on budget night, if the price of petrol goes up, to save a few quid on one tank of petrol.

Alternatively, consumers will hold off longer until the price has been clarified or normalised before making the purchase. For example, if (when?) the government here take away the €5k SEAI grant for EVs, all EVs will become at least €5k more expensive overnight. Would there be a spike of EV purchases in Ireland before that date? I would wager so, along with a corresponding slump for a period of time after.

All that being said, I believe that a year-over-year sales figure comparison would still be a more genuine comparison for the article to have used.

Red Silurian

To bring this thread back on track. Increases in the cost of electricity coupled with decreases in the cost of petrol/diesel and reduction of government supports will inevitably lead to a reduction in EV sales and it shouldn't be surprising to see it happen in any country

In Ireland it will happen eventually too. But the effects of brexit on the second hand car industry and the fact the govt hasn't said exactly what changes they will be making to the grant means it will likely not happen until next year. Doesn't help that the manufacturers care more about LHD markets than us either

allinthehead

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120220445#Comment_120220445

Don't forget the cut the government made on a litre of fuel last year (was it 20c?) is due to be reversed next month I think. We should also see the price of electricity reduce towards the end of the year.

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120221261#Comment_120221261

I'm not sure the government will risk rolling back the excise relief at this stage, although they might reduce it somewhat

It's worth remembering that even though electricity prices have gone down they're still very high relative to previous years

We got lucky with a mild winter so gas storage across Europe is still mostly full, however the race will be on next summer to refill it and expand it before next winter

So I'm not sure prices will go down much, but suppliers will be able to hedge their prices better so they'll probably be able to offer bigger discounts like they did before. We might even see a return of fixed rate tariffs at some point

allinthehead

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120221317#Comment_120221317

All true, so many unknowns on all fronts.

Still a good bit cheaper to run an Ev on night rate vs Ice, even with the horrendous rates on offer today.

Jog501

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120221317#Comment_120221317

What provider has reduced rates recently? Might look at changing if someone has made the first move. Given the collapse in wholesale gas from the 2022 peak I expected it to happen but not this soon.

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120221630#Comment_120221630

None yet that I know of, but I don't think we've seen any rate increases for a while either. Although I've probably jinxed it now

I think Flogas were offering a fixed term contract for gas. Prices were fixed for 12 months, although not necessarily the best rate

I think Energia still have the best rates for electricity, not sure if they're best for gas

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120221353#Comment_120221353

It's cheaper to run a diesel on a used cooking oil mixture as well to be fair

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120221863#Comment_120221863

Yeah but getting your hands on 60l or so of used oil can be difficult, not sure if you can just ask the local chipper for some anymore

I wonder if restaurants are getting paid for their used vegetable oil, or are companies like Frylite making money both ways, from collecting used oil and then selling it to be made into biodiesel 🤔

creedp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120221863#Comment_120221863

Hardly comparing like for like there for the majority of the population. Bottom line is that for a significant proportion of the population, those who can charge at home, are not doing silly mileage, don't need 7 seats or ability to tow and are buying new anyway, a new EV is a great choice (even without grant which to a large extent is built into the curremt price) both financially and for quality of product.

For the rest just going to have to stick with ice and see what the next couple of years bring.