Peter O'Mahony

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120255795#Comment_120255795

He’s not. Not at this point, maybe not ever.

He’s a very good player who has been integral to Ireland for years, and is worth his place in the team at the moment in my view.

But he is not at the level of the two players alongside him the Irish back row.

Your points on the other players being replaced is irrelevant.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120255786#Comment_120255786

This intensity stuff is a nonsense too. He is less involved in the game than the other two. I know the point about him playing in wider channels means he has lower tackle stats and lower carries than his back row partners, but it's also because he's not as good a carrier or tackler than those two either.

He has significantly less ruck involvements than VdF or Doris, and doesn't play with anything resembling the intensity Van der Flier in particular is asked to play at. Watch Ireland's defensive sets - VdF is invariably the one doing the traditional openside role of charging at the opposition 10, energy sapping stuff, that a lot of the time doesn't generate a stat.

Claiming that POM comes off the field after 60 mins because he's spent after putting in more or greater intensity than those other players is patently untrue.

I don't want this to be a thing of beating up on the guy (O'Mahony). I think he's a great player who has been central to a lot of Ireland's massive games, but you're inviting this forensic criticism of his game by trying to claim he's something he isn't, or that he is as important as VdF or Doris.

There is also a significant slice of "provincial BS" in your arguments here too, as it feels like this is coming from your position as a Munster fan rather than anything else.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120256490#Comment_120256490

He has significantly less ruck involvements than VdF or Doris

Significantly less? Do you have any stats on this, FTD? Cos that's not my impression at all tbh.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120256496#Comment_120256496

Yeah, actually I did go and specifically look at the performance of the 3 starting backrowers for the French game.

For the period up to the 56:08 mark when O'Mahony was on the field; I counted each player's 'involvement' in a series of play, counting tackles, rucks hit, carries. I didn't count scrums or mauls, since all three players are involved in these invariably (there wasn't a particularly high amount of either in this game in any event).

For the 56 mins; O'Mahony had 34 involvements, of which 6 were negative involvements (3 missed tackles, 2 spilled lineouts and 1 penalty concession). He hit 15 rucks by my reckoning, of which 14 were offensive rucks (Ireland in possession). He made 7 tackles. O'Mahony carried 5 times for 3 metres, and passed the ball once. He also had the latch on Andrew Porter for his try.

Josh van der Flier had 48 involvements, of which 2 were negative (1 penalty concession and 1 missed tackle). He hit 25 rucks during this period, of which 17 were offensive and 8 were defensive. During this sequence, Van der Flier carried 7 times, and passed twice.

Caelan Doris had 44 involvements, of which 3 were negative (1 spilled lineout, 2 missed tackles). He also hit 25 rucks, split 11 offensive and 14 defensive. Over this period, he had carried 11 times, and passed 3 times. He had one turnover, but I believe should have had two more.

So yeah, I think it's fair to say both Doris and VdF had significantly more ruck involvements. It's not hard to see when you watch the way Ireland play, and the positions O'Mahony typically takes up. He's often one man in from the touchline, and the play at times just doesn't drift towards him. I do think from observing the game like this (literally ruck to ruck) it's noticeable how clever he is, and how judicious he is in terms of his involvements (he doesn't fold into many rucks where he isn't going to make a difference), and had one really notable clean out (after Sexton's break down the left touchline and the ball back infield).

Josh van der Flier's energy and workrate is off the charts. He is proximate to virtually everything. Just hunts the ball around the field, and must cover an astronomical amount of grass. He had a couple of monster clear outs during this sequence too, and is really impactful in his clear outs.

Doris' tackle stats were low by his normal numbers in this game, but his involvement otherwise, showing up to carry, ruck and link the play is so noticeable. He has obviously been empowered by management as well to hunt for turnovers, because it's noticeable how often he goes after opposition ball (only Beirne and Porter noted for similar impact).

Finally, when observing like this, the impact of James Ryan in particular is so evident. He hits an astronomical amount of rucks, especially when Ireland are attacking, and makes a huge amount of tackles. Through two games this season, he's made 30 tackles, missing 0.

I'm going to do similar analysis on the Welsh game when I get a chance.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120257245#Comment_120257245

Yeah, actually I did…

I was thinking more an independent source, with a greater sample size than 1 game tbh.

And even if we grant your stats above as accurate, POM is hitting 23.5 rucks per 80 mins, vs 25 for both VdF and Doris.

So again, significantly fewer? Nah.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120257425#Comment_120257425

No, as far as I can see the data doesn't exist, or isn't freely available anywhere. By all means feel free to go and collate it yourself if you're doubting the credibility of it, or my "independence".

I'm the one who actually did the work and looked at this, but you're giving your "impression" of it.

Once again, though, I'm not the one slating him here. I posted the statement about him having less ruck involvements in response to a statement that he invariably is the one who comes off (which isn't necessarily true in and of itself anyway) simply because he is expending the most energy, or is the most involved during the period he's on the field, something which I think is demonstrably not the case.

Or are you agreeing with that statement? Do you think he's generally as visible and as impactful as Van der Flier and Doris?

He's a really good player, and very important to us, but he isn't at the level of the other two in the back row alongside, and is more replaceable. I don't think that's an outlandish statement, and don't really understand the fuss around it.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120257460#Comment_120257460

You said “significantly less”. Even by your own stats, that’s not the case. I’m just pointing that out.

clsmooth

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120257425#Comment_120257425

So to summarise:

Do you have stats to back that up?

Yes, here they are.

I want stats done by someone else and for more games as these don’t fit my narrative.

Excellent detail Fresh to Death. So POM is completely emptying himself for 55mins as per Akrasia whilst it looks like the two others completely empty themselves for 80mins and achieve slightly more output per minute doing it at a higher accuracy using the admittedly small sample size of the French game.

I think POM brings a lot of balance to the back row especially in the lineout and can provide big momentum changing moments a bit like Beirne. I think he’s played his way back in at 6 over the last year and should stay in the team ahead of Conan for now.

Would argue that he isn’t a world class poacher a la Pocock or Warburton in their prime. And would argue that he isn’t and has never been world class player if a loose definition of a world class player is being seen as one of the best 2 players in the world in your position for a period. You could make arguments for Sexton, Murray, VDF, Furlong and Doris under that criteria.

Going forward Baird and Coombes look like great replacements for him for the next cycle. It’s amazing how little we noticed the loss of Stander which seemed like a big blow when he announced his retirement.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120257528#Comment_120257528

But it is significantly less - it's 10 whole rucks less in this specific example - that's sizable.

The other poster suggested O'Mahony would be withdrawn because:

If POM's role is to go out there and give it absolutely everything for 50-60 minutes knowing that he'll likely be brought off, that's different from a player knowing he'll likely play the full 80 mins and therefore will be asked to manage his energy differently. (this can be done if someone elses role is to do the energy sapping stuff.

Are you saying you share this view?

This view is patently untrue. He carries less, tackles less and hits less rucks. He most certainly isn't doing the "energy sapping" stuff (by comparison to the other two), and that would be obvious to anyone just watching the game, never mind the stats.

The reason he was withdrawn in this game was that his energy levels were starting to visibly lag (there is a lot of kick tennis in those first fifteen mins of the second half and he's noticeably slower getting himself back into the play etc), and he had just had three consecutive errors - a missed tackle on 47 mins and line out spills on 51 mins and 54 mins (immediately before his withdrawal).

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120257425#Comment_120257425

Also, I didn't catch your edit here till later - but no this stat isn't correct:

And even if we grant your stats above as accurate, POM is hitting 23.5 rucks per 80 mins, vs 25 for both VdF and Doris.

As I made clear, those stats are just for the period for when O'Mahony is on the pitch, so are exactly comparable. O'Mahony hit 15 rucks per 56 mins, while Doris and Van der Flier hit 25 rucks per 56 minutes.

Doris hit 42 rucks in his full 80 mins, while VdF hit 45 rucks in his. Your extrapolation also assumes O'Mahony's energy levels will be maintained for the full 80, something I'd dispute as he appeared to be visibly lagging a bit in his last 5-8 mins on the field.

Bass Reeves

I see this a cross a lot of sports where people misunderstand the role of a player. At 33 years of age in a game where players have got bigger and stronger POM should not be making the international team. But he is.

People may often misunderstand his role. He is probably never close to the action he is not a premier ball carrier or specialist tackler. His job is to be that bit further away from the action. He is not making that first line tackle or that first line break.

Doris at 25 is starting into his prime, VDF at 30 is coming off his prime PIM will be 34 going into the WC

Professional coaches are totally ruthless he would not be there if there was better than him at his job.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120257425#Comment_120257425

Here's an independent source for you too, that guy who for some reason OTB are bringing on in recent times. Based on his numbers (this is pre the France game) O'Mahony hits a lot less rucks than Van Der Flier or Doris too:

This post was titled "How Ireland's back row divide up their workload" - and his implication is that O'Mahony's largest contribution is his carrying, followed by rucking.

However, if you look at the full season of 2022 (there's a larger sample size for you too), O'Mahony carried only 40 times for 115m (2.9m per carry), from his 540 mins (10 games, 7 starts).

Josh van der Flier carried 81 times for 222m (2.7m per carry), in his 773 mins (10 games, 10 starts), and Caelan Doris carried 95 times for 317m (3.3m per carry, from his 797 mins (11 games, 11 starts).

On a per minute basis, O'Mahony carries the least frequently (one carry per 13.5 minutes, versus VDF 1 per 9.5 mins, and Doris 1 per 8.3 mins).

He also notably tackles less than the other two (he's on 64 (88% accuracy) versus JVDF on 159 (94% accuracy) and Doris 141 (96% accuracy).

So, if this is saying carrying is the biggest part of his workload, but we know he carries less than the other two, and rucking forms significantly bigger parts of their workloads, then it is very safe to say that he rucks less than them.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120257754#Comment_120257754

Yeah, except I didn't say anywhere in this thread that he doesn't deserve to be where he is. I've said the complete opposite on multiple occasions.

I made what I thought though was the surely not outrageous statement that he is not as impactful or as important to us as the guys alongside him, one of whom is the current World Rugby Player of the Year, and the other is a guy who's been actually outplaying the World Player of the Year for the past 8 months or so.

phily2002

POM was brilliant at the tail end of last year but hasn't found that form this year. He was solid against Wales, most ratings had him 6-7 which I think was fair. I thought he struggled a bit against France, similar to the Wales performance(mostly only brought rucking) but he had quite a few errors, 2 knock ons, penalty against, missed tackles. I thought his support play wasn't great out wide either. On the Sexton break he struggled to keep up and was too far back for a pass/offload from Dorris. On the Dupont tackle against Hansen, he started beside Hansen but was slow jogging at the 22 when Hansen needed support. If he'd made more of an effort here we would have scored.

I not sure he's doing enough to keep the Jersey. Conans a better option in the wide role, faster, better tackler and carrier. Coombes is tearing up trees and has been outperforming him and Baird has looked better at 6 this year.

He rightfully got his Jersey back with his performances last year but since NZ 2nd test he hasn't come close to that level.

Dubinusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120257858#Comment_120257858

Outstanding work. Great analysis. Credit to you.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120257586#Comment_120257586

Ah look, we’re not uncovering corruption here, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to ask for an independent source.

Or, indeed, a bigger sample size than 1 game. Which you seem to agree with me on.

Fair play to FTD for putting that together, it obviously took a lot of work. But he has in the past gotten the odd stat wrong too.

I’m hoping to get to re-watch the French game later in the week anyways so might have a look at that level of detail myself, just out of interest.

I think there’s a level of defensiveness from Munster fans when it comes to POM. On here, I can remember a number of regular posters for years saying he should be dropped from the squad; not the 15, not even the 23, the squad. That was clearly nonsense.

And to be fair to FTD, he hasn’t said anything remotely close to that.

It’s entirely possible that is colouring my view of POM’s ruck stats, but I thought he was excellent against France tbh.

CIARAN_BOYLE

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260738#Comment_120260738

I find the Munster view on POM very entertaining.

There are posters posting on the Munster thread arguing that he should be dropped and protesting on the Ireland thread that he should be kept.

My own view is that the back row is a very competitive position. POM is very good but has often been beside world class players.

POM has been locked in in the 23 for the last decade and other very good players haven't gotten a chance.

There have been times I felt that Ruddock, or Murphy or Henry or a few others were in better form and should have made the 23 ahead of POM.

One thing I want to note about POM is that he has maintained his standard for so long. While he has been quiet at time he has always been very good.

Other players I've felt were better suited for spots in the 23 have mostly had up and down periods of form and there was no one who I've felt was consistently better than POM over 3 of 4 years that has been behind him.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260738#Comment_120260738

I’m hoping to get to re-watch the French game later in the week anyways so might have a look at that level of detail myself, just out of interest.

Finally got around to this, @[Deleted User] , which you might be interested in. First thing to note, it's a pain putting these together, so fair play to you for putting in the effort.

Second, Doris does everything. He literally does everything, and brilliantly. If he keeps up this level of performance, he'll be in line for World Player of the Year, and in a RWC year, that's really exciting.

But lastly, I got quite different ruck stats to you, especially for POM. If you look at total ruck stats, they broke down as follows for me:

I also counted ruck arrivals in terms of 1st, 2nd and 3rd to the ruck for attacking rucks, they broke down as follows:

You can see pretty clearly from that, POM is hitting attacking rucks first fairly significantly more frequently than Doris and VdF. I think this is exactly what you would expect, when you consider their comparative carrying stats.

A lot has been said about Ireland's attack being enabled by our quick ruck speed (we've seen the stats about <3 second rucks). I think it's pretty clear POM is an integral part of delivering that.

With regards overall involvements, I have it as POM 47, VdF 46 and Doris 49. And that's excluding lineout lifting, mauling and scrums, etc. but for the first 2, POM is invaribly more involved than the others. For example, on French lineouts, VdF rarely entered the maul, instead lining up in midfield. On a number of our lineouts, particularly in the 2nd half, Doris wasn't involved, and he lined up in midfield.

So overall I'm not really seeing how he was less involved in the game than the other 2.

I don't think it's accurate to say that POM delivers greater intensity across his ~60 mins. But I also don't think it's accurate to say he's less involved, and certainly not to the point of having significantly fewer ruck involvements.

(And a complete aside, but 2 things I didn't entirely notice the first time watching the match were that 1) McCloskey had a brilliant game defensively and 2) Lowe had a poor game off the boot).

leakyboots

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120304909#Comment_120304909

Super research, fair play, would love to see a similar analysis of the backrow and Conan the last day.

basillarkin

POM is the most overrated Irish player since POC

sprucemoose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120307736#Comment_120307736

if youre going to make such a bullsh1t statement at least try and explain your reasoning somebit

ulsteru20s

I think all these stats would have to be more granular to be significant. Like, hitting a ruck and being the deciding impact of whether you keep the ball or not, or coming in after someone else has already done that is very different.

Also, you would have to quantify which involvements are more valuable. Like, is one lineout involvement the same value as 1 ruck, 2 rucks, 3 rucks?

John_Rambo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120307736#Comment_120307736

It feels like Peter O'Mahony has been playing rugby for Ireland since 1994 which would mean he's being playing international rugby since he was five, and he looked exactly like he does now when he was five years of age! However, regarding the man as a player I think his influence on the pitch & within the team along with his rugby IQ may be the reason he's picked so often. Similar to Paul O'Connell.

Neil3030

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120304909#Comment_120304909

It's all set up beautifully for a Stringer-like decoy (06 HC final). Dying minutes of the RWC final, Ireland camped on the opposition line, everyone expecting a pass to JvdF or CD, only for POM to smash through the line unopposed to score the winning try.

As the trophy ceremony begins, the crowd can be heard whispering... "Where is the champion?" "Where is Ryu POM?"

Already seeking the next challenge, ceremony means nothing to him.

The fight is everything.

<CUT TO POM UPPER-CUTTING A WATERFALL>

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120307750#Comment_120307750

I agree tbh. The ruck arrivals give some indication of significance but there is a qualitative aspect missing.

For example, a number of Doris’ defensive ruck entries were when the ruck has already been secured, so inconsequential towards the ruck, in that sense.

But he’s trying to stay on his feet so he can scrag the 9. (It’s worked for him previously but Barnes was having none of it in this game).

(And Full disclosure, I did a quick sense-check and VdF’s stats are a little off, should be a touch higher).

Even Gatland who has a pub that says "No Irish" on the door captained him for the Lions. There must be something to all these stats.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120315636#Comment_120315636

And immediately dropped him from the 23 afterwards. Can't take one without the other.

POM was phenomenal last season, probably the best he's ever played. Prior to that, he very frequently was anonymous in games. You can talk about differing roles in a team and how that can impact stats, but there was a 6Ns game (against Wales iirc) where he didn't record a single tackle. That's part of a pattern, that's creepy back into his performances this season it seems. He's elite as a defensive jumper, and a very good poaching threat, albeit not on the level of Pocock or Warburton.

He might make the bench in an all time Irish team, but it would be a generous assessment imo. SOB, Ferris, Heaslip, Wallace, VdF and Doris would all be ahead of him.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120304909#Comment_120304909

Will take another look myself if I ever get a chance, as I didn’t have that high a number for POM at all on rucks, though our numbers on JVDF and Doris are quite close.

A point I’ve made a few times on this thread and elsewhere is I think POM does a superb job for Ireland. He fits the balance of the back row.

It’s why I feel the difficulty is for Coombes to get a look in - does he ever play the kind of O’Mahony role where he carries in wider channels? It feels like he plays more centrally (like Doris).

El Vino

My alternative to POM would not be Conan, I think his form has dipped from the high of the Lions year. I think moving Byrne from 2nd row if we had more depth their would be better. That way we keep the lineout and ruck strength and perhaps gain a little in carrying

BoardsMember

Until I saw how we beat France recently I wanted to see Byrne at 6 when playing massive packs. I'm not so sure now, I think we need to back relentlessly fast ball to exhaust these massive packs.