Is housing really that bad or is it just another hyped up 'crisis'?

MegamanBoo

As I see it we are now an open economy and the reality is there will be fluctuations in population.

At boom times, we'll have a higher population, during the troughs it will be lower.

There are two choices then, do we have a shortage of housing during the peaks, or a surplus during the troughs?

I believe FFG have made it strategy to have a shortage during peaks, so as to protect property value during the troughs.

Even though they probably realize it's gone too far now... I guess at the point foreign investors started complaining, but they can't catch up fast enough.

But they will always keep behind demand. So as to protect the investors and screw the working people who want to live long-term in the country.

El_Duderino 09

It's the same all over the world in counties comparable to Ireland. I think its about voter demographics.

The most reliable voters are old people and they're most likely to have houses and no mortgage. In other words it's just an asset that they can sell for retirement. So they want the prices to keep going higher. If a government builds loads of houses, supply might meet demand in which case they would solve the problem, but existing house prices could stop rising or, god forbid, begin to fall.

So a politician would need to go the those old people and tell them they solved the housing problem, caused their home to lose value and ask for their vote.

On the other hand, the young are the most negatively affected by the housing crisis and they're too busy working their ass off to vote. So there are fewer votes in solving the problem than maintaining the problem and keeping old people's house prices rising.

Only a party that appeals to young people would even want to address the issue.

MegamanBoo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120238996#Comment_120238996

I see that, but I think a lot of older people want to know their kids will be able to afford a house too.

The more long-term this problem becomes, I believe older people will turn against it too.

And we seem to be getting it a lot worse in Ireland too.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120238901#Comment_120238901

100%. You should take a look over at the accommodation forum. Loads of similar entitled public sector types who think that because they get borrow other people's capital and then outbid someone on a house, and proceed to rent it to that underbidder, then the underbidder should pay them double the mortgage payment and be grateful for the public sector sponger for "providing" the house.

Oh, and the State should guarantee and bail them out for any blip too. And remove rights for anyone else to suit them. And the classic whinge asking why they are uniquely singled out as having to pay income tax on their income.

gormdubhgorm

In Dublin there is definitely I know a place where they are struggling to find a pool manager after the last fella retired (Clontarf area). They can't open the pool until they find a pool manager. And why can't they find one?

Cost of houses to rent/buy are too expensive for any person who is qualified! I was shocked. It would be a lovely job for someone as well.

And I was talking to a to a young girl from down the country who was working in Dublin. It was cheaper for her to live down the country and have an over two hour commute to work than live in Dublin.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120239037#Comment_120239037

I've heard about that forum and I'll give it a wide berth. There's better places I can go to hear people with entitlement issues complain about not having enough of other people's money for doing absolutely nothing. Someone on welfare does it and they're human refuse, landlord does it and they're some sort of heroic service provider. Classism at its finest.

People have to decide what they want for their communities and compromise accordingly. A friend of mine is Cornish and Cornwall is littered with empty second homes. Of course, people wail about young people leaving en masse and then lose their fragile little minds whenever anyone wants to build anything. NIMBYism here is out of control. If people want gentrified areas their children can't afford to live in, that's their call but we know who's to blame.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120239012#Comment_120239012

Yeah I think if people laid out all their beliefs and really examined the parts that conflict, lots of old people would support building houses even if it took a few percent off their own house value. But people don't tend to audit their beliefs like that.

I think the parties that cater to unthinking old people are happy to talk a lot about fixing the problem but are not willing to risk hurting their vote base.

It's a voter generation who bought council houses built and paid for by their parents generation. And when it was their turn to build and pay for more houses for the next generation, they voted for tax cuts for themselves instead. Jow the young people have little access to housing and are working their ass off to pay rent and pay tax to pay those older generation's health care bill.

I don't hold out hope of that older generation becoming altruistic any time soon.

whisky_galore

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120239119#Comment_120239119

People generally pull up the ladders and fcuk other people over to protect their own interests. Whether that be other generations or classes, or just others they don't care about.

Ham_Sandwich

the only option now is to vote Sinn Fein when the time comes they will sort us out with houses if we look after them in the election.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120239179#Comment_120239179

Any party that goes after young people's votes would at least want to address the housing problem. SF are the only party that attracts young people and has any chance of power

Whatever you think about SF, they're the only ones who even might address it.

TagoMago

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120238712#Comment_120238712

There are plenty of satellite towns but do any of them have any available places to rent? Not according to daft anyway. Assuming this man did look for accommodation in Limerick and surrounding towns, Co Clare (of which there is very little, as well as competition for the places) what other options do you think he has?

lisasimpson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120239216#Comment_120239216

Agreed. Nothing around newport, nenagh templemore either all commutable to limerick

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120238935#Comment_120238935

You have to go back to the housing boom, an awful people the past 15 years managed to hang on to properties they bought in that period. They either outgrew the property and moved on and become what is called reluctant landlords. Basically the price they paid for the property was no where near the value at time, so they were hanging on and letting them out.

Because of work from home policies during the pandemic people were no longer geographically tied to the area they worked in so they willingly left rentals which they actually because of government legislation had security in, sitting tenants which makes up 99% of all tenants are paying only 3-4% rent inflation.

So 2 things happened in the Summer of 2020, we hit a 5 year high for available rentals and house prices began to drop.

Then came the usual hyperventilating, the likes of Ronan Lyons with his quarterly property porn index began to stoke the market. The panic starts again.

Because of record levels of savings, people had deposits, relatively low interest rates, house prices inflated, reluctant landlords got out and the rental market for new tenants shrank, with the rents going up because this is not protected by legislation. This is made "worse" because far less people are moving between rentals because of prices assurance and things like the eviction ban.

So a lot of people got caught, because of the rapid rise in houses prices and the fact they left rentals, they are still at mums.

The "reluctant landlord" played a significant role in the rental market, but they are gone, they are not coming back to the same degree.

Not everybody is in a position to purchase a house straight out of secondary school/college so rentals are a necessity unfortunately.

There are three main options currently for providing rentals.

Private landlords who are currently exiting the market faster that they are being replaced.

The state who no longer have an interest in directly running any public services, they will throw money at the issue but you can be guaranteed that it will not be the most efficient use of that cash.

REITs who need to provide large returns to guarantee future investment so have no interest in flooding the market with cheap rentals.

What should happen - limit population growth, limit the rents REITs can charge, make investing in rental property more attractive and have the state build high density low cost rentals.

What will happen - the state will provide more financial support to vulnerable renters which will make the cost of renting for those not eligible for supports more expensive.

Mrs OBumble

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120238712#Comment_120238712

Please NAME them.

Because the rest of are having difficulty finding them.

If there are plenty, it shouldn't be difficult.

Dslatt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120239291#Comment_120239291

I just checked daft, house sharing in Limerick city and 10 km outside has 67 properties. For house sharing, a city. YFLyer is obviously either a troll or a completely deluded clown.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120239054#Comment_120239054

I'll see your pool manager and raise you the life sciences and biotech sector here. It's heavily concentrated in the southeast of the UK where property prices are extortionate. There's biotech firms and Universities here who can't find staff because nobody wants to live like a student in a houseshare. Wages are quite low here but that's another issue.

We're on the road to demographic disaster. We've prevented many thousands of young people from starting families over this I'd say and we'll end up with a glut of older people who won't be able to afford rent and will need more medical and social care. I can see why some people in Ireland are turning towards Sinn Fein. In my experience, shutting down housing developments is an easy win for both left and right.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120239338#Comment_120239338

Older people vote. There's also the notion that we're supposed to respect our elders, a notion discredited entirely in the last few years.

NIMAN

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120238939#Comment_120238939

Would agree with you. Those working are the ones really struggling.

You mention FF/FG, but should SF get into power next time round, they will only hand over more 'free' or cheap houses to similar people. They ain't going to fix the issues present for working people who can't afford homes.

Gusser09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120239367#Comment_120239367

I'm not sure what SF will do. But to vote FF/FG in again is akin to the definition of insanity.

I actually think SF won't hand over any more free houses than FG/FF have. They will be acutely aware that the social welfare classes and the free house classes really aren't bigger voters.

NIMAN

I think if SF looked after me and gave me a free house, I'd make sure I would make the effort to drag my ass along to the polling booth every 5 years.

Thelonious Monk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120239367#Comment_120239367

so realistically to make it fair what can be done? maybe change the limitations of being qualified for social housing? so normal working people can afford a home with help from the state too. i think in vienna pretty much everyone lives in some kind of social housing, or a large percentage.

Ubbquittious

FG created this situation in order to recapitalise the banks and get the economy going again after the 2008 crash. From their point of view it has worked spectacularly. Money changing hands at light speed, tax take through the roof. All they need to do is throw up a few apartment blocks to horse the complainers into and they'll sail into the next election with a good majority.

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120238901#Comment_120238901

Why would you expect it to be cheaper than London.... The UK has a GDP per capita of about $42k and Ireland has one of around $83k, not matter what excuses you come up with about the calculation of GDP etc... expecting a country with almost twice the GDP per capita to be cheaper than one with only half it is not real. Switzerland, where I live, has a GDP of about $86k and if you compare the rental market in a medium sized city in Switzerland, then Galway prices are about average. Countries with high GDP per capita are expensive places that is something Irish people are going to have to get used to...

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058284169/is-housing-really-that-bad-or-is-it-just-another-hyped-up-crisis

The problem is that the voters want the housing crisis solved in a very specific way - everyone gets to own a house, which is unrealistic. Until the voters attitude changes to a more European main land style solution where a large percentage of the population will only every rent a property we are not going to see this crisis addressed.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058284169/is-housing-really-that-bad-or-is-it-just-another-hyped-up-crisis

...what happens if sf cant form a government, and its looking like another ffg term!

...oh its real alright, and its gonna keep getting worse, as it looks like we need at least 50,000 units built per year indefinitely, and we re currently struggling to get that to 30,000, get ready for more far right numpties......

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120239442#Comment_120239442

Owning you own home provide more stability in virtually any developed economy which has any decent growth metrics. For a few years a left wing minority taught different. This was in the latter part of the noughties property boom( when rental yields were 2%,) and during the crash when rents were artificially low.

The problem now is we have a building labour deficit (especially in Dublin where 50% of it travels in a substantial distance every day), houses build to a very high specification ( especially with heating where future energy costs are front loaded onto new house buyers), exceptionally high regulatory and professio al costs, significant finance costs to developers( mainly due to the way finance is arranged and the lenght of the planning process). Add them all together and it add up to a significant extra building costs. Site costs by themselves are significant but not the only issue

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120239442#Comment_120239442

I think the issue is that people over 65 are more likely to vote rather than there being more of them. This results in politicians pandering to the "grey vote" to a degree.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120239461#Comment_120239461

Stupid argument. By the same logic, a property in Belmullet should be more expensive than Mayfair.

A lot of older people that I know just aren't really impacted and don't seem too bothered or aware as a result.

My own parents were sending me links to beautiful houses in Dublin a few years back.

They just couldn't understand how I could pay so much rent but not be able to make mortgage repayments that were much less.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120239517#Comment_120239517

Mine used to nag me about moving back. They've finally gotten the message thankfully.