USA 2024 presidential election

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121757809#Comment_121757809

I can't imagine him wanting to retire even if Trump were to win. He's only 75 which is nuts considering he's been on the court since 1991. He probably thinks that he's get alt least another decade in him (Stephen Breyer retired at 84). Besides, if he's not a supreme court justice then he won't have all of his billionaire "friends" willing to ferry himself and his lunatic wife around on private planes and taking them on fancy holidays.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121757809#Comment_121757809

Can't come soon enough. Ghoul of a person

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121758246#Comment_121758246

In case you (or anyone else) hasn't heard it there's a brilliant 4-part podcast on him.

It dives deep into his childhood, which was messed up, to say the least, as well as his career prior to being on the Supreme Court.

The picture it paints is if a deeply odd and unpleasant individual who seems to care about nothing apart from his own advancement. Even though he has reached the pinnacle of his profession he is still fueled by grievance and bitterness (sounds familiar) against those who he thinks slighted him.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/part-one-the-clarence-thomas-story/id1373812661?i=1000571206147

AbusesToilets

It's darkly impressive how awful a collection of individuals make up the conservative justices. One of the most destructive courts in the history of the nation, which is saying something.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121758446#Comment_121758446

And the truly dystopian aspect is that in the great supposed beacon of democracy, they're a bench of lifetime appointments without any realistic way to remove them except through death. It's a nonsense and that's not even my liberal sensibilities talking 'cos the current lot are made up of conservatives: it could be room of Ruth Bader Ginsburg clones and I'd still think it deeply undemocratic to have them sit for life without any possibility of replacement.

I have been vaguely curious why the Founding Fathers™, or whichever administration introduced them, never saw fit to add an escape hatch or sensible method to remove sitting judges. Or maybe it was one of those aspects from fadó were a "lifetime" meant you were dead by 50 either way, so no great need to add an upper limit (see why the original pension age was 65)

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121758478#Comment_121758478

While it might be impossible currently to pass an amendment to mandate term limits, there's definitely legislative action that could curtail the reach of the SC. Increase the number of justices, make it a rotational position per judicial season etc.

There's also the premise that nothing in the Constitution grants the court the right of judicial review. So if a Democratic Congress passed laws that the court opposed to, there's no requirement for them to give credence to the court's opinions on the matter. I'm sure the originalists on the court would be happy to adhere to that reading of the Constitution....

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121758478#Comment_121758478

It's an interesting question alright about why there are no limits. I just checked to see what ages the members of the very first supreme court died at (there were only 6 justices on it originally)

• John Jay - 84
• William Cushing - 78
• James Wilson - 56
• John Blair Jr. - 68
• James Iredell - 48
• John Rutledge - 61

So yes one of them did die before 50 but a couple of them lived to ages that would be normal these days. As such I don't think the omission of an age limit was due to them thinking that people would be unlikely to live into their 80s.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121757809#Comment_121757809

I totally agree. It is ridiculous they have lifetime appointments. They should at the very least have an upper age limit say 70 at which they have to retore after reaching.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121758246#Comment_121758246

I would say your being very generous there in that description of him.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121759998#Comment_121759998

Good value losing bet and I know because I have had my share of them over the years😀

Firstly I don't think Biden will step aside, yes he is not in good shape, but we must remember Dem voters overall like him and while the polling favors Trump its not exactly catastrophic as Biden has time on his side to make it up, its about 8 months away the big day!

Also they don't have many better options ready to go for November. Harris is not a safer option option whatsoever, donors like Newsom and he clearly has been building his national profile with an eye on November but ultimately what he has achieved in politics,,,,won in California? Wow

He's also got a whiff of RDS about him , solid in his backyard but some might consider him to radical for the crucial battleground middle of the road states.

Whitmer is the only other serious alternative, she would be a safer bet than Newsom/ Harris when it comes to the swing states as she would deliver Michigan for Dems which is a huge selling point. The Dems have plenty of people who will be ready to in 2028, but its to late for anyone else to establish themselves in case of Biden dropping out suddenly.

!I don't think it will be her v Trump, but I'd rather put a tenner on her at 125/1 than the silly odds we see for Michelle Obama who is 10/1 or so with some bookies 🤣

Raoul Duke III

Yes, it's clearly a shot to nothing and no sweat if Biden does indeed seek and get an uncontested nomination.

Weakness in politics though tends to snowball and the entire US population outside the White House is telling Joe it's time to go. The question is will he be LBJ or Carter....

Raoul Duke III

And Michelle Obama even being quoted in the betting is indeed a joke!

AbusesToilets

One thing this theoretical shows is the weakness of picking Harris for VP. She was an awful choice to begin with, and looks worse when you float the idea of replacing Biden for the nomination.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121761031#Comment_121761031

The entire US population? No.

LBJ was in a weak position, Biden isn't. Economy booming, inflation coming down. 8 months to go, a lot can happen, like a pandemic. At least this time the office of pandemic preparedness exists.

Raoul Duke III

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121762121#Comment_121762121

If you look at the polls specifically focussing on his age, they are unequivocal. Even 50% of Dems say he's too old!

Running against Trump of course is a blessing. So even infirmity need not disbar you when he's the alternative...

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121761987#Comment_121761987

Cynic in me thinks Biden wanted someone who would not pose a challenge to him long term. IIRC he was linked to the likes of Warren, Rice and Whitmer before who no matter your views on their specific politics are much more formidable politicians.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121762535#Comment_121762535

It strikes as a failure for the DNC to not pick a VP with actual Presidential potential. The possibility for them needing to step in was a legitimate one, and frankly, any Democratic candidate was likely to beat Trump in 2020. Biden didn't need anything that Harris had to off to get them the win.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121762951#Comment_121762951

Name ANY VP with Presidential potential???

Bush Sr. is the only former VP that went on to be President in the last century.. Not a single VP has ever amounted to anything of consequence after their term as VP.

Gore arguably should have beaten Bush Jr. but beyond that - Nothing.

And no "any Democratic candidate" wasn't likely to beat Trump in 2020 .

Harris was picked specifically to placate the Progressive wing of the party/voting base and she served that purpose and she'll serve it again this time as well.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121762984#Comment_121762984

Ehh Harris couldn't be further from the Progressive wing if she tried. Look at her record in office or her positions during the campaign. She is a dyed in the wool. neo-liberal corporatist. Sanders or Warren would have beaten Trump handily imo. The voter base was already energized after 4 years of Trump, and both of them actual supported progressive policy positions, unlike Biden, Buttigeig and Harris.

Gore and Biden are obvious examples of VPs with strong presidential potential.

Brussels Sprout

I think Biden committed to picking a black woman as VP as part of the deal he made with Jim Clyburn to get his support in the South Carolina primary in 2020 (and possibly putting a black woman on the supreme court if he got the chance). That deal ultimately turned the primary contest around for him.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121762984#Comment_121762984

Nixon ran JFK very close as VP in 1960, and obviously had his infamous second act as President but that wasn't as 'VP'.

But in general I think your point stands.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121762984#Comment_121762984

Besides George Bush Sr, six other former VPs went on to become president in the last century:

• 3 became President indirectly but subsequently won re-election: Coolidge, Truman & Johnson
• 1 became President indirectly and failed to win re-election: Ford
• 2 left office entirely and subsequently got elected President: Nixon & Biden

Raoul Duke III

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121762951#Comment_121762951

No-one ever picks their VP candidate on their suitability as a potential president. They pick them to help win the election - usually with a specific state or demographic in mind.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121763349#Comment_121763349

My point is that Biden is unique in his age profile. It's not an unreasonable prospect that he would need replacing, more than any normal president. Certainly looking ahead to the 2nd term. Having a viable candidate to replace Biden for this election might have been a beneficial move for the Democrats.

Raoul Duke III

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121764005#Comment_121764005

Yeah, I take your point but the political calculus of the Biden coalition is such that it's highly unlikely he would drop Harris now.

I'm actually struggling to think of a president running for a second consecutive term who did dump their VP. In modern times. I know FDR did.

Igotadose

Uhh, Gore won the popular vote. Would've made a much better POTUS than GWB.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121770222#Comment_121770222

Wouldn't he also have won Florida too if the recounts were allowed to continue? It's quite something to consider that the "Brooks Brothers riot", a totally orchestrated agitation to shut down the recount amounted to a dry-run of what became GOP policy 20+ years later; plus ca change n' all that jazz.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooks_Brothers_riot

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121770249#Comment_121770249

yeah, the GQP can't win the POTUS race anymore without cheating. Florida was the most obvious dry run (Pam Bondi and Roger Stone should suffer for their actions, at least it seems like Stone might). Gerrymandering, voter suppression, and then... there's TFG. Disenfranchisement, violent overthrow of results, criminal conspiracies...

What's pretty scary is how much SWATting is going on in the US. The Lincoln Project guy detailed his experience in a Youtube video. BBC reported on a NY Rep being SWATted recently: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68297349

I'm afraid the cretins doing the swatting will ramp it up as we get closer to the election. SWATters are using VoIP, voice synthesizers and burner phones to pull it off, which likely will make acquiring that kind of tech harder in the US for its legitimate users.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121770249#Comment_121770249

And the legal arguments used by Bush to get the win in Florida were quarterbacked by a young John Roberts whose efforts were later rewarded with the big chair in the Supreme Court.

He was ably assisted in those efforts by none other than Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney-Barrett.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121762984#Comment_121762984

As a point Gore did beat Bush albeit by about half a percent but he did win. But given the US is not a full democracy and the person with the most votes doesn't automatically win the result was overturned by the undemocratic electoral college.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121778717#Comment_121778717

It was overturned by the undemocratic SCOTUS who ordered to count to stop when Bush was marginally ahead.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121759226#Comment_121759226

Provided you survived childhood diseases, violence and were rich enough not to starve you could expect a longer life than the poor today.

https://biblehub.com/psalms/90-10.htm

Still can't get over that healthcare isn't the #1 issue in this or any US election.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121778798#Comment_121778798

You are correct. But even after the recount was stopped by the undemocratic supreme court Gore still had won by about half a percent but that vote was overturned by the flat out anti democratic electoral college in favour of the election loser Bush.

Podge_irl

What is the point of calling them the "undemocratic" supreme court?

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121784057#Comment_121784057

They were undemocratic in that they stopped the count of votes before all the votes were counted in Florida when the outcome was not beyond doubt.

That is not within their powers, and so was undemocratic. The American voting is sacrosanct in as far as every vote is counted. That is why USA citizens are granted votes which are counted. Results are declared when the result is beyond doubt.

Democracy is defined differently in every country, but the key is that the rules as they maybe are followed. In this case they were not.

Rjd2

Nikki is done and so is the GOP primary if it wasn't months ago!

Firstly once the indictments rolled in that was that for this primary as a contest, but still absolutely dumbfounded that so many serious people literally learned nothing from 2016 and Trump. They looked at Trump 8 years ago then and backed Rubio when the only serious alternative to Trump was Cruz who was much more in touch with the voters for better or worse.

RDS tried to unite the Trump fans,skeptics and haters and it obviously did not work out. Haley on the other hand seemed to be hoping Trump would drop out and she would win by default. LOL.

The less said about the Dem primary the better, Dean Phillips has thrown away a solid political career to get retweeted occasionally by the Elon Musk crowd. LOL

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121770249#Comment_121770249

Was reading about that the other day. A study was done later on that shows that Gore would have won if there was a statewide recount. However, for the limited recount he asked for, Bush would still have come out on top. The whole thing stunk.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121857422#Comment_121857422

John Roberts, Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh did good work as lawyers for Bush in Bush V. Gore.

Funny how these things work out.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121857819#Comment_121857819

Roberts has been a key architect in the destruction of American democracy

Rjd2

RFK has picked his VP. She is absolutely loaded which was clearly something he was looking for judging by the other names floated as ballot access costs millions which he doesn't have easy access to. Unsure bar that what she brings to the ticket though, not gone down well with the more Trumpy voters who initially liked him it seems.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/26/robert-kennedy-nicole-shanahan-running-mate-00149150

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946959#Comment_121946959

RFKjr is just a tool for the GQP backers to poach voters from Biden. He has zero chance. He's an anti-vax freak. His family disowns him. But, money and commercials. This airhead VP, whose main qualification is she divorced Sergey Brin and got a lot of money for him, will hang around for the lolz and spend some of her unearned income.

Too bad, really, her bio seems boring enough but bright lights/big city I expect and dumb enough to think RFK, JR is the way to those.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121948975#Comment_121948975

Just reading about her and I think I see why she was drawn to RFK:

So basically another person who can't handle the fact that their child is neurodivergent and is desperately trying to find a source of blame for they were "cheated" out of having a "perfect" child.

Naomi Klein, herself the parent of an autistic child, talks in detail about these sorts of people in her recent book Doppelganger. They're rife in the community of parents of autistic children - especially amongst the wealthy/professional class. They can't accept their children as they are and instead spend their energy either on quack cures or searching for someone to blame. Shanahan is just going doing that same thing but on a billionaire level.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121948975#Comment_121948975

Surely he'd be poaching votes from Trump though? Can't see a lot of overlap between Democrat voters and those who RFKjr would appeal to.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121959893#Comment_121959893

Don't underestimate the stupidity of the American voter. There's a tiny percentage that think "Kennedy == Democrat." And an additional percentage that think 'protest vote.' So, Kennedy will poach votes from Biden primarily; the extremist loony toon anti-vax types that would vote for Kennedy wouldn't vote for Biden anyway, and might not vote for TFG. Not much different than the Bernie Bros who stayed away in protest against HRC and helped give the election to Trump.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121959893#Comment_121959893

There's this left wing, alternative health, yoga-Mom, Woo-Woo demographic that would never vote for Trump but went down a rabbit hole during lockdown and will vote for RFK because of his stance on vaccines and "clean living*"

*ironically enough this doesn't seem to extend to the human growth hormone that he appears to be dosing himself with

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121959939#Comment_121959939

We will see in time but I don't think he will have any impact on the outcome of the election. There is no clear evidence to say he will for sure take voters more so from a Democrat or a Republican.

As for Sanders voters who stayed away lets not forget Clinton still did actually win that election. She won by about 2% but because the US is not a full democracy and they have an electoral college decide who becomes president that election result was overturned by the electoral college.

marno21

The big issue is how little it takes to swing a US presidential election. Biden won Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin each by a margin of less than 1%. Had he lost all 3 of those states he would have lost the election.

The vote Jill Stein got in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2016 for a "Green Party" candidate that in the end put a coal lobbyist in charge of the EPA is testament to this.

Igotadose

And Ralph Nader gave us GWB.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121961338#Comment_121961338

Well actually the electoral college again gave us Bush. Gore won the election albeit by 0.5% but he won yet once again because the US is not a full democracy the vote of the election was over turned by the undemocratic electoral college. Never mind the corruption involved in what happened in Florida.

Sam Russell

I hope Key Bridge, Baltimore does not give us Trump.