Zero political centre or centre right, solutions!

The FG/Labour government of 11/16 was a pretty centre right government, it was cutting off dole to people who refused to engage in retraining etc but it got destroyed in the 2016 general election and that's how we ended up with the big state spending we have today.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120298443#Comment_120298443

But FG are not going to 'catch' SF no matter what they do. Pretty much everybody accepts SF will be the largest party by a distance after the next election. This begs the question, what would be an acceptable performance for FG? Based on recent polls, this guy is predicting 37 seats for them, slightly ahead of FF

https://irishelectionprojections.com/

Given that they will have been in power for nearly 15 years by the next election, I think most in FG would take that. If they can achieve this through a 'steady as she goes' approach (and presumably ramping up the anti-SF rhetoric as the election draws near), do they really need to take the massive gamble of a lurch to the right on immigration policy?

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120298593#Comment_120298593

Yes because they would be stepping outside the political consensus on a significant issue, which the establishment parties are extremely reluctant to do. I'm struggling to remember the last time one of the main parties took a 'right-wing' stand on a major issue that put clear blue water between themselves and the rest of the establishment. Thisb is the best I can come up with, and tbh the issue has nowhere mear the salience of immigration

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/pds-defend-proposal-to-keep-single-mothers-in-family-home-1.75346

Harney got absolutely slaughtered by the rest of the establishment (including the PDs' erstwhile allies in FF) for that (to me pretty innocuous) proposal. So imagine that ramped up by ten if FG were to propose serious restrictions on immigration. Would approval-craving Leo really want to bring the wrath of his liberal friends in politics and media down on his head in return for very uncertain political gains?

TagoMago

The main parties are not ideological IMO, they are opportunistic. If a significant percentage of the population wanting stuff like complete abortion bans, harsher punishment for drugs, etc. then FFG would change their tune pretty quickly but at the moment that's not the case. The electorate has moved to the left and the party's rhetoric and (some) policies have followed suit

Immigration may prove to be a different kettle of fish as anti-immigration sentiment becomes more common (it would also give them a a scapegoat for their abysmal housing policies), but for now the likes of Aontu are the only option for those wanting to vote right wing. The fact they only got one (already sitting) TD out of 26 candidates show how appealing they were

rossie1977

No matter how many times it is said on here it is not true. Every single EU government including Ireland is right wing, many like Hungary and Poland leaning very far right.

People are confusing conservativism with populism clearly.

Murph85

Fg would any win some votes back by reducing income taxes, raising entry point to marginal , not even matching inflation, is a joke. Abolish usc over 2/ 3 budgets....

The funny thing is, fg won't do stuff they actually stand for, because of optics from the media etc... that's how spineless they actually are...

Mullaghteelin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120298787#Comment_120298787

Historically what you say is true, but I do wonder if the combined power of the media and NGOs have been allowed to grow to unhealthy levels.

Whenever the media debates any political issue, there is almost guaranteed to be one or more representative from a lobby group or NGO, taking part in the discussion along with the politicians. What the ordinary voter thinks barely registers in the equation.

One of the most extreme examples of this is the silencing of the trans-versus-women debate on RTE radio last year. A conversation silenced, with RTE pulled up before a committee. Legitimate questions no longer allowed on the subject.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120298797#Comment_120298797

IMO it's the approval of Una Mullally and Justin Trudeau and the rest of the liberal elites Leo craves, not the protestors in East Wall, who'd never vote FG anyway. Reading Irish Times op-eds denouncing him as 'an intellectual version of Peter Casey' or 'Ireland's answer to Enoch Powell' would be more than he could bear.

At this stage there's a pretty lengthy record of a majority, or at least a very large chunk, of the Irish public having 'right-wing' convictions on various issues, and no party coming forward to speak for them, despite the apparent political payoff of doing so, and I firmly expect this to remain the case with immigration.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120298507#Comment_120298507

On those numbers the current government would easily be returned with the help of a few independents

Murph85

We will likely see a return of the current government, what becomes very interesting is though, when one party is by far the largest, is it undemocratic that they dont lead. After nearly one hundred years of a ffg duopoly farce, appalling governance.... Will the dissenters tolerate another five years of failure?

I dont expect sf to do any better, all if the parties are weak anti change and populist, but many do and it is as yet, unproven....

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120299148#Comment_120299148

FF/FG would have a good chance of putting some form of government together, but it wouldn't be easy and would likely require the support of SDs, as the largest of the 'other' parties. And Holly Cairns is understandably yet to set out her stall re SDs' potential role in government...

Murph85

I hear that we have a " progressive " taxation system. Whats progressive about a poor person earning 40k , losing half their income over that pittance?

Geuze

What progressive means in income tax, is that the effective tax rate rises as income rises.

Ours is very progressive.

If you compare somebody earning 67% of AW with somebody earning 167% of AW, the increase in effective tax rates here is very high.

Geuze

http://www.publicpolicyarchive.ie/ireland-has-the-most-progressive-income-tax-system-in-the-eu-2/#:~:text=The%20measure%20of%20the%20progressivity,and%20employee%20social%20security%20contributions.

Conclusion

Compared to other OECD countries

• The level of direct tax paid in Ireland is low particularly for those below average earnings
• Employee PRSI in Ireland is less than half the OECD average2
• The Irish system is the most progressive in the EU
• The top marginal rate is not particularly high but it applies at a relatively low level of income

 

Source: Taxing Wages 2017, OECD 2017

I see sheep

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120295771#Comment_120295771

Just what we need, an Irish Tory party 🤣

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120299790#Comment_120299790

I'm aware of what it means... is irelands so " progressive " that its regressive? That would be my opinion

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120299838#Comment_120299838

Do you have a link to the letter?

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120299847#Comment_120299847

I don't get you?

Two features of our income tax / PRSI / USC that a centre-right party should improve:

(1) all workers / earners should pay something, even a bit: I suggest abolishing the PRSI exemption and re-introducing the 100 PRSI allowance

(2) we need more rates, so that people don't reach the top rate at 40k

MegamanBoo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120298429#Comment_120298429

For a centre left government anyway I don't think the target would be to spend more on health, housing and welfare.

Rather that were these services to be provided by the state, a greater and fairer benefit would be accrued.

Look at the cost of what FFG pay for social housing, 450k+ for small apartments, in some cases even paying similar for long term leases before handing the property back to the developer. The centre left ideal would be that the state uses its financial and legislative clout to build more social and affordable housing for less.

That's not something that could happen overnight in Ireland. A whole generation of construction workers are lost because of the boom and bust nature of the Ffg approach.

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120299853#Comment_120299853

Why many high earners stay here, is beyond me...

Murph85

Found the article. Hits the nail on the head, stuff ive been saying for years. Ffg are equally reckless and poor on the economy front. Preaching about sf and magic money trees is comedy from those hypocrites...

"Fits and starts, but without any plan to speak of, we have exploded the size of the State. In 2015 Ireland spent €54 billion. This year it will be €90 billion plus. Allowing for inflation, an ageing population, Covid, Ukraine and any other cause, the figures still don’t add up. The heavy lifting on climate change and ageing to name two issues hasn’t even begun. Last week’s €1.4 billion cost-of-living package landed amid a public conversation where almost no voice and certainly no political party was prepared to call out the squandering of public money.

I challenge anyone to explain how public services and infrastructure have improved in tandem with the rise in public spending. What stands out is the incrementalism of it all. Nobody in advance of the 2016 election set out a plan to grow the State in real terms by well over a third. We have never had a conversation on that scale. Yet somehow, slyly, silently it happened.

There is no sense, in people’s lived experience, of the enhancement you would expect from such largesse. If you or I increased our personal spending to that extent over eight years we would expect to be living high on the hog.

There is a vortex in a weak political system with voracious interest groups into which falls the public interest. Some vested interests are blindingly obvious. NGOs are cuckoos in the nest. They successfully replace the public interest with special pleading.

READ MORE

State spending has soared by one third since 2016, with little discernible benefit to Ireland’s citizens

The immigration genie is out of the bottle and cannot be simply wished back in

Dáil’s expansion will alter electoral arithmetic hugely

Paschal Donohoe’s usefulness to Varadkar and Martin will save him

Spending is affordable now only in the sense that we have the money. Climate and ageing will exert inexorable upward pressure. If we get climate change right Ireland has a brighter future. But in the short term – a decade if not two – it is a scenario of deep investment before benefits flow in-scale. Ageing, smaller families and proportionately fewer workers to carry the burden is something we have barely begun to experience as an economic costs. The only offsets are foreign migrants and native babies.

This is what is known. What is yet to be ascertained is how much of our corporation tax if not other revenue streams are at risk. One issue is the profitability of the multinationals we are dependent on. Another is where their profits are ultimately taxed and what our future share of that pot will be.

Learn more

Soon our 12.5 per cent corporation tax will become 15 per cent. It is not a deal-breaker and delivers certainty. In any event we have agreed to it with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). What is at issue – and is our real exposure – is where multinational profits are taxed in the future. Will it be in Ireland where the intellectual property of many of our biggest multinational taxpayers is held, or will it be abroad where overwhelmingly the resulting transactions take place? The status quo is the sweetest spot for Ireland. We depend on international inertia to stay there.

Dependency on benign neglect for a living is foolhardy. Worse is the connivance of government and opposition in a game of poker for our future. On the issue of approaches to public spending there are only bad choices across the political spectrum. The recently rearrived at budgetary surpluses and the belated re-establishment of a rainy-day fund allows for virtuous sounds bites without having to make any real choices.

Fine Gael in government has presided over ballooning public spending. It is a fake right party mouthing platitudes but refusing to practise the virtues. Fianna Fáil has joined it and there is no discernible policy difference. Economically Ireland has no right-of-centre politics.

The centre hasn’t been held. It moved left in a game of chicken. Sinn Féin in some respects has moved towards the centre, but not on public spending. It doesn’t have to because there is no conviction in government about controlling spending. What both sides want us to believe is that a chasm in policy is, in truth, just the difference between Tweedledee and Tweedledum.

The consequences of this have in part already manifested themselves. Bereft of strategy or systemic purpose we are running to stand still. No structural change is considered. Relative to the extra resources provided, there is relatively little improvement to be seen. When it was here the Troika focused on fiscal change. There were chapters in the bailout agreement about reform, but they were never a priority. Reform wasn’t needed for economic growth; it was needed for value for money. It is also ultimately required for public confidence too, a point that was politically lost.

Ireland wasted the crisis post-2011. Unable or unwilling to reorder the State, all that remains is for government is to pour greater resources into tried and failed receptacles for delivery and reap the resulting ingratitude.

In that time frame, and with those resources, there could have been a transformative agenda pursued in any one of housing, health or childcare. Instead money was wasted on people who will not be bought with their own money. The strategy doesn’t work even at a base level. Entitlement is now a new orthodoxy. What passes for politics venally appeases it or fears to confront it. The biggest losers are always the poorest. I need only mention housing, health and childcare.

Murph85

Ffg would happily lose votes, if the general consensus, isn't the " respectable opinion from the meeja and academia etc" that's what people are sick of , the bullshit. Hence Varadkar being popular initially, before be was found out to be a spoofer....

Annasopra

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120297075#Comment_120297075

Very true. It was FF that effectively abolished spending on building public housing in 2001. FG have been incredibly glued to the private market solving all housing problems for many years. Also there were 22,000 public hospital beds in Ireland in 2008. Its now at about 14,000. It was right wing austerity cutting back public services that did that.

Brussels Sprout

Let me guess OP. You want a party that:

• Vastly reduces income taxes
• Stops pandering to the woke left
• Cuts all foreign aid
• Removes gender quotas
• Fire half the civil service
• Cracks down hard on crime
• Removes asylum seekers from the country
• Has a Dail enquiry into why there are so many black people in Irish adverts
• Brings back hanging
• Tells the gays to keep it quiet
• Feeds travellers into wood chippers

osarusan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120299838#Comment_120299838

What evidence is there that there are 'masses' that need to be appeased when it comes to immigration?

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120300708#Comment_120300708

I mean most of those sound pretty good to me, removing the racism and homophobia obviously.

osarusan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120300776#Comment_120300776

There's a poll here (https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/poll-sinn-fein-support-falls-for-third-time-42328225.html) showing that as of February 2023, 19% felt immigration was an issue to be prioritised. That was a 10% jump from the same question in January 2023.

10% of obviously a significant jump, but the point I'm making is that as of January 2023, about 10% of those polled felt immigration was an issue that need to be treated as a priority. Now it's 19%...still not a mass that needs to be appeased.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120300776#Comment_120300776

So concern about refugees among the general population is a mile wide among the general population. But the question of how deep it is remains open. I would maintain it would only be deep enough to elicit real alarm among the established political parties if there is a serious risk it would prompt significant numbers to shift their votes in the next general election. And I'm seeing little sign of that so far...

Geuze

• Vastly reduces income taxes = NO, a rebalancing of taxes away from labour and towards land/property. In particular, increase the entry point ot the top tax rate
• Stops pandering to the woke left = YES x100
• Cuts all foreign aid = maybe halve it?
• Removes gender quotas = YES
• Fire half the civil service = NO, but be more responsible, reduce waste, look for mergers / efficiencies, modern work practices
• Cracks down hard on crime = YES, for example 10 convictions = 1yr in jail
• Removes asylum seekers from the country = YES, bogus AS should not get past the airport
• Has a Dail enquiry into why there are so many black people in Irish adverts - see no. 2
• Brings back hanging - obviously not
• Tells the gays to keep it quiet - see no. 2
• Feeds travellers into wood chippers - no, but emphasise personal responsibility

MegamanBoo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120299973#Comment_120299973

I would say more than just semantics, the state is the biggest economic actor, how it spends its money makes a huge difference.

Let's say my boss tells me I'm getting a 100 euro a week raise. Then adds I now also have to pay 100 per week to rent my desk. Is that really spending on me?

As for all the issues you've raised on housing, they seem entirely valid. I'd add too the cost of development land.

Where FFG to me have been right wing is to say all along that the private market will sort these problems.

Whereas the state could bring in policy to train and encourage construction workers, improve planning legislation, penalize land hording etc. Not overnight fixes but I think the long-term approach has to be correct.

The other option on housing I think would be to take a hard right approach. Completely liberalize the sector. More people would have roofs over their heads very quickly. The downside being that without regulation we'd have shoddy building (shoddier?), development here there and everywhere, and few would be investing in energy efficient homes.