FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

I'm failing to see excitement in any of this evenings model runs. Dry northerlies again for the majority of the country, Donegal and Northern Ireland would get some wintry showers with snow cover inland and on high ground, very similar to early January so not much excitement for most of us, given how late we are into the year not as good as early January.

We would need polar lows or some sort of frontal activity to bring snow to more of the population and the republic in general, scattered showers won't cut it.

nacho libre

This is a colder airmass. With the instability and thickness levels there could be features that would pop up. The January cold spell delivered for more areas than just Donegal. Although much of the country did miss out. If the latest ECM comes off Ulster and much of Connacht could see snow.. Also other areas could see snow as previously mentioned . We need to bear in mind that the stronger sun could actually aid shower activity at this time of year too

WolfeEire

In terms of the longevity of this cold snap, the angle of the high that regresses towards Greenland is key. The flatter it is, the more likely it is that low pressure spilling out of Newfoundland will have a more direct route to Ireland. The more diagonal from NW to SE the high is, the higher the likelihood of a more sustained cold spell. At the moment, the trend is leaning towards the former.

In the latest GFS mean (144), you can see the high is a little flatter compared to the same time in the 12z. Ideally, you would be looking for more of a SE angle to the area of high pressure. In the 18z, you have the added issue of heights rising from west Africa.

nacho libre

It looks like a lot of support now for the high to go too far West in the end. So a short cold spell-hopefully a snowy one - before a likely milder and unsettled spell. If this Greenland High is the result of the first warming a couple of weeks ago, then we should see another cold push after mid March. Hopefully this would lead to the coldest possible uppers descending on us. As we would need something exceptional at that stage to deliver settling snow. If I had my way -16 uppers would be parked over us all winter!

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120299929#Comment_120299929

We have difficulty getting -6 uppers in Winter, never mind -16 uppers!

almostthere12

Ukmo and ecm looking a lot better for us this morning with -8 uppers widespread.

nacho libre

The ECM has snow from showers moving down over us, and then some snow from a frontal system for parts of Ireland later on , but England take most of the snow from it, if the ECM precipitation charts are right. I just hope the ECM does not move towards the GFS, as that has crappy shortwave drama all over it, which means the cold gets blocked off and its all too marginal

WolfeEire

Ecm prolongs the cold through most of next week. The JMA and ECM on their own with quicker breakdown showing on GFS. Gem shows potential for slider low. Hard to call it to be honest. I'd walked away from it this morning but now ...

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120302614#Comment_120302614

It’s landing it with a good net will be the problem! Slippery fish from the north east! 🤪

AnFearCeart

This has to be one of the most trolling charts yet this spell from an Irish POV. Southern UK gets pasted, again.

Niall145

Both models now prolonging the cold to Sunday (and possibly beyond), also ECM gives us a juicy snow event next Thursday morning...

Gonzo

A definite upgrade on the models for cold and some snow potential on this mornings runs, let's see what the 12z brings before getting excited. Overall the models are definitely taking a more unstable and wintry turn so it looks like the extended dry spell is coming to an end soon.

nacho libre

I see the GFS is sniffing out a Scandi High in fi. There has been a trend to extend the cold across the models. While this might change on subsequent runs, I think those wishing for proper spring warmth may have to wait till next month for that.

snowgal

thanks all, would someone mind posting link to the charts as I cant see any of them on this? thanks

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120305294#Comment_120305294

Cold sets in 7th March, only 5 days away.

Coldest conditions likely next weekend, but at the same time much milder air is going to try and sweep in from the Atlantic with the dreaded shark fin of mild heading in our direction.

Back into a mild pattern by the Tuesday.

At the moment the GFS is going for a 4 day cold snap/spell.

ECM not quite as good as it brings in a big warm sector briefly over the 4 day cold spell.

After a day of cold weather the cold is pushed back up north for a time.

Cold comes back on the Saturday

and it moves north again on the Sunday. So the ECM is definitely a milder solution.

squarecircles

starts snowing monday night in the northwest with countrywide snowfall next Tuesday on the 12z gfs ..the wintry conditions seem to be upgrading on each run.

could we be waking up to a winter wonderland Tuesday morning ???

Ragwort and Stones

Ireland v England 5N Rugby 1986, 15th March. All the snow behind the goals. Mid March and no thaw. The good old days. I suppose the Grand Slam in Twickenham 17 March 2018 was as cold but no lying snow. Just hints at the potential for lying snow, mid March, if the synoptics are perfect. Sometimes there's better chance of getting the right synoptics in March than January.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120306269#Comment_120306269

Things are improving with the GFS but even on this latest run, very little lying snow is being shown away from parts of Ulster and (mainly) high ground. Even on hills and mountains, depths are in no way high but then again it's the super duper new and improved GFS that we're talking about!

ECMWF is slight better in general with a dusting for many at some point during the cold snap with a chance of moderate accumulations for a time, mainly in the southern half of the country and a little while after, possibly some moderate to heavy accumulations in parts of the North and Northwest.

highdef

Right at the end of the 12z GFS, an Atlantic weather system heads in and clashes with the cold air, giving moderate to heavy snow for many......treat this with a pinch or twelve of salt

But even so, it's so marginal that it's not showing a whole lot of lying snow. Hills and mountains would do well in this situations, I would imagine

At this point, temperatures in parts of southern Ireland are hovering around 0° whilst in Northwest France, it's into the low 20's at the same time. Pretty extreme contrast there.

Thewife

2018 it snowed on paddy’s day while Ireland bet england for the grand slam in twickenham also ! Praying for another grand slam this year 💪🏼 snow would be an added bonus 😊

JanuarySnowstor

Great charts next week!!

Not sure what's happened this forum, place would be hopping years ago.

Deserved its own thread 2 days ago!

Might be late in Season, indeed its Spring but easily best charts in 5 years

Gonzo

Next week's cold spell looks locked in at this point, what is not locked in is how much snow will fall and where. We could get very unlucky and escape fairly dry with the Uk getting a dumping or we could end up getting a dumping from Atlantic fronts stalling over us with cold air locked in place. Most places should see cold rain/sleet/snow next week depending on location and how cold it gets. At the moment the cold spell looks like a 4 to 5 day event with a small chance it could last longer than that. Once the mild air gets back in a reload of cold is possible about one week later.

Turning colder from Monday with wintry potential. This cold spell should last to Friday. A big split between models brining in milder air by Friday night and into next weekend while other model runs keep it very cold over the weekend with some going as far as March 15th.

IF this cold spell happened back in January it would have been probably a lot more severe than both the early December and early January cold spells we had during winter. A fair chance this cold spell will deliver snow to more areas than anything we saw all winter.

On another note Terry Scholey is expecting regular cold outbreaks this Spring until at least mid May so it's possible we could be setting up a fairly chilly March and April and possibly May with shades of Spring 1981. I hope this doesn't verify, would like a return to mild conditions by start of April at the latest.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120306658#Comment_120306658

Gowan Gonzo!!!! Surely most areas will get something of note!

Gonzo

ECM is a big downgrade/model wobble. turns cold from Monday with milder air returning into Wednesday and becoming very mild after that. Could be a mild outlier.

nacho libre

Yes the ECM is a disaster. It would also fly in the face of what I said earlier. I hope it's an outlier. I would take the GFS with some slight adjustments to push that band of snow back south and introduce a frigid Northerly afterwards.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120306758#Comment_120306758

Was thinking the same, very sudden change really considering how the previous few days output was looking.

giveitholly

Hopefully it's not an outlier and the ECM wins out

JanuarySnowstor

Yep ECM is brutal but you never know. We know our luck is pants so you wouldn't bet against it!!! Indeed you'd probably bet for it 😆 🤣

Derekon2021

At this stage, most seasoned posters know that it will 90% go wrong if snow is anticipated in Ireland so this evening's ECM not a surprise......usually turns to sh#t.......

D

nacho libre

Yes, it would be just our luck that it has sniffed out a new signal and the other models move towards it over the next 24 hours. It would seem to go against the background signals that's the puzzling bit for me. Why can't this happen with mild weather? We can nearly always be assured of a seamless countdown to milder weather that locks in for weeks!

Derekon2021

@nacho libre, that's so true......I suppose that's down to our default weather being mild Atlantic muck......

D

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120306691#Comment_120306691

Absolutely not.

Even if the colder air locks in for 5 to 7 days, its looking like way below normal precipitation with it. Beyond that, a huge number of factors would have to fall into place.

On the milder progs, I'd say these runs in the last few hours are indeed outliers. The UK Met are sticking to their guns and I think we'll bear that out. Cold for the working days of next week, daytime highs of 4 or 5, scattered very light mixed wintry precip in a NNE flow. It won't even compete with the December spell for deep cold.

Not cold enough to be spectacular, too late in the season to herald a significant and productive easterly, with the Atlantic never far from breaking through. March will probably finish up as slightly below average for temp and well below average for precip (this is now becoming a concern) and those expecting any parallels with 2018 should disabuse themselves of the thought right away.

nacho libre

The UKMO maybe sticking to its guns for now but if that ECM run has support among the Ensembles and the GFS moves towards it, then the UKMO will change soon enough. We have seen this before over the years . Also with regard to snowfall,temperatures will climb higher at this time of year in any sunshine , but with heavy showers the colder air aloft would be dragged down in showers. So you could go from 5 c to or 1 or 2 C within five minutes. Ideally there would be a lot of cloud cover after any snow showers to help suppress the temperatures

With convective activity at this time of year you may also get more showers further inland than precipitation charts might suggest. I don't think anyone who has been here any length of time thought this was going to be up there with what happened in 2018. One thing 2018 did show is you can get dry snow past Mid March!

Kermit.de.frog

The trend is pretty good. Most areas look like seeing at least some snowfall to varying degrees. We'll be able to go in to much more detail by Sunday evening. We are still in speculative mode. There are two parts to watch - snow shower activity and possible frontal snow...it's just too early to go all in on it yet but I like what I see do far.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120307406#Comment_120307406

I disagree.

Rebelbrowser

No backtracking on the 18z gfs, colder again I think

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Please show respect for differing opinions. There is no need for hostility in this forum.

Off topic posts and personal attacks have been removed.

Please keep the posts in this thread to +120hrs FI and use the Spring thread for general chat or in time a dedicated thread if it is warranted.

Thanks

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120306758#Comment_120306758

Very much an extreme outlier.

JanuarySnowstor

Met Eireann going for a return to mild on Wednesday with little talk of snow. Looking at all the models, ecm not out yet, their forecast looks highly inaccurate especially away from the South. Almost every model this morning keeps the vast majority of the country cold. They must be basing it on last night's ecm (ie old data)

Rebelbrowser

Alas this mornings ECM is the same as last nights and the GEM is similar. 24 very cold hours on Tuesday if they are right...

DOCARCH

Joanna on RTE radio forecast towing the line with the ECM and going for a 1 day cold spell (next Tuesday).

Rebelbrowser

Though I note MTC is a bit more positive than that for us snow lovers in his morning forecast....

Derekon2021

Joanna from ME just on Morning Ireland - cold from the middle of Monday & Tuesday. Mild air back in for Wednesday - nothing to see here, move along folks

D

Rebelbrowser

Whereas I just heard the newscaster on Corks 96 FM declare in a scripted piece that there would be snow over the weekend, with temperatures plummeting to 0 to -2 all due to a phenomenon called a sudden stratosphere warming..... (deep breaths, deep breaths ....)

sideswipe

Fingers crossed it’s short lived and we can get on with warmer, longer spring days with the smell of fresh cut grass and buzzing of insects.

love cold and snow but when it gets into March I’m looking for ‘proper’ spring weather.

gerrybhoy

The most bullish I've seen MT for a while regarding the cold weather

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120308160#Comment_120308160

I'll take any event to be honest. She did say that the forecast beyond Wednesday was uncertain. All to play for I think. I hope!

squonk

Wouldn’t describe MTs forecast as bullish. From my reading what he’s saying it’s it’ll be general cold (true) and a few places will see a few showers at times with snow and hail. It strikes be that be night be working off some older data really. For my location anyway the ME app is showing pretty much what I’d expect anyway. I’d happily be corrected but at this point I’d rather get on with spring rather than what we have view, a long build up to a cold day with little in the way of snow.

gerrybhoy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120308357#Comment_120308357

More regarding the extent of the cold, some others are saying mild etc. that was my point

Supercell

Fax T+120 (midday Tuesday)

Cold , 528 dam well to the south with a slack north/NNE airflow, north and northwest could get some snow, hopefully the east will get some nice crisp clear weather.