Cold Spell (of depth and duration uncertain!) starting Tuesday 7th March

pauldry

Ya I reckon that's pretty accurate. Somewhere will get an absolute dumping in low stays South but doesn't it always pull North on these shorts. Probably 13c in parts of Ireland on Thursday and minus 3 in England

donal.hunt

Holding out for this in Cork, like… 🙏

Kermit.de.frog

GFS is nudging further south again. The further south the more likely the northern half of the country stays in the snow zone. It's narrow margins between the haves and have nots but a lot of areas are going to get appreciable falls of snow from this.

The trend here is good for broadly Dublin/Galway north.

P.S Keep a good eye on the wrap around occlusion Thursday night too.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120325824#Comment_120325824

South?? As in colder air hanging on in Munster and the mild staying away longer?

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120325824#Comment_120325824

Kermit, do you give any hope to us in Cork / Kerry of seeing snow overnight tonight? We do seem to have a LP system skirting us overnight.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120325829#Comment_120325829

We want the mild sector to stay in Munster 😆 *runs*

squarecircles

no major changes on the 12z gfs, the low ever so slightly further south.

Orange warning likely for the northwest id say if things stay like this.

Kermit.de.frog

Trajectory is almost perfection

Exciting eh?

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120325839#Comment_120325839

Very much so but not the first half of Thursday I don't thin at this stage at low levels in southern Munster. You need a further little nudge south to catch the follow-on snow in the occlusion. That's the trend at the moment.

squarecircles

more of the country further south and east getting in on the action ???

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120325880#Comment_120325880

Aye that's the occlusion. Could be the main event...we'll see.

squarecircles

bitter cold over the snow fields friday night.

WolfeEire

Gem upgrades snow risk for areas south of the aforementioned Galway to Dublin line. In fact, parts of Munster and Leinster record more snowfall than anywhere else. GFS brings the snow risk a tad further south than the 06z.

sicknotexi

Was literally about to post this.

PokeHerKing

Slidergate 2023

gerrybhoy

Dublin? Snow? Kermit

Dazler97

Flurries of snow ❄️ at the moment but not sticking as the sun is out as well so it's a start

Kermit.de.frog

UKMO nudging the track further south as well.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120325919#Comment_120325919

...

Gonzo

Just another bit further south, another 50 to 100km would do. Edit maybe not.

GEM really does shift the focus to the south and east away from the north and west.

Probably an outlier tho, most likely it will be further north than this.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120325875#Comment_120325875

Thanks. It was actually tonight into tomorrow I was looking at but suddenly I'm getting more interested in Thurs / Fri too!

CirrusBusiness

If the low for Thursday stays on a more southerly track and dives S/SE as is now starting to show up, more so midland areas rather than the north will be in for a nice surprise! Been thinking for a while this is how the low would track staying south of Cork and burying the midlands. All eyes on tonights charts. Better chance of snow for a larger portion of the country and an "event" if the low stays south of Cork allowing more cold to hang on to the north. Just hope temps remain on the right side of marginal.. hold on to your hats as we await tonights set of runs. This could still go either way and it's only 2 days away.

Gonzo

Arpege has major snow event for midlands and west. Rain for the east which turns to snow as it clears. A rapid melt everywhere away from high ground.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120325919#Comment_120325919

GEM also has snow potential right the way through the weekend as well with the Atlantic air making a few abortive attempts to break through. Big ECM tonight.

Rebelbrowser

DPs generally -2 to -6 across the country at the moment. Its -3 to -5 across Cork and Kerry. Given a LP system crosses us from the south tonight that must bode well.....

nacho libre

Jeez that GFS run is very good. Whatever models you look at some places are surely going to hit the jackpot now. From a selfish point of view I really don't want to see any more corrections further south to the point that we miss out, but I doubt that will happen. I think this cold spell could be remembered after all!

Rebelbrowser

Actually, looking at the track of tonight's LP across a few models, surprised Waterford is not mentioned as well as Kerry and Cork. In fact the southern parts of Tipp, KK and Wexford also might be affected. See below

Of course it could stay off the south coast or it could fall as sleet but the ME warning gives me hope....

Mount Vesuvius

The wrap around looks like providing a headache. Fun and games. Trend is South bar ECM throws a spanner.

Gonzo

Models certainly more interesting now for a larger part of the country. Even if this trend south verifies it will probably still be too marginal for eastern coast counties with the Irish sea working against us but at least now there is some chance of eastern areas seeing some flakes. Weekend now looks quite chilly as well away from the far south coast.

The ECM in about an hours time is going to be absolutely critical.

Bleating Lamb

Is there likely to be any snowfalls or black ice tomorrow in the NW?