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Cold Spell (of depth and duration uncertain!) starting Tuesday 7th March
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Probably. In terms of overnight, a lot of Munster should see some flakes, all of the high res models showing this. Likely to be rain to snow so it might only be the last hour that is sleet/snow and then you need luck for there to be enough pep in the convection still for anything notable to accumulate. In Cork city I'd be thinking flakes on cars and grass by rush hour but unlikely to be much better. We live in hope though...
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Yes, hopefully the ECM might show something like this. As you say we have waited weeks for the SSW to deliver something meaningful, if the UKMO and GFS are right it amounts to a hill of beans. It seems to have been the story of this winter and is now following on into spring. We will probably get a direct hit at the end of March when it's all too late.
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The Ecm is far less progressive with the breakdown on Thursday when compared to the 12z GEM and GFS.
Ulster and north Connacht stay cold through to Saturday morning.
After an initial push of milder air up to the northern third of the island on Thursday, the cold air pushes back right down to the south coast during Friday. A snow to rain to snow situation for the middle third of Ireland, while the northern third stays cold with snow up to Saturday morn when the cold retreats northeast.
All very messy, but the potential for significant snow remains for some parts of the island. If ECM holds track then a red warning may be warranted for the northwest and Ulster.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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Models in general showing some fairly substantial frontal snow in my opinion for the W, NW , N and NE. ECM as has been said above shows the frontal activity and the cold airmass reloading quickly again for the next front to arrive. No doubt not all snow with rain and sleet part of the process also. Areas could see some big dumps of wet heavy snow at times.
What I am seeing:
Getting highs of 5 or 6C tomorrow but as low as 2 or 3C further N
Weds temps from 2 or 3 up to a highs of 6C parts of the W
Thurs looks to be close to freezing in Northern parts would assume over snow fields, about 3 or 4 C in the center of the country getting colder further N and possibly up to 10C in the S for a time but cold everywhere later Thurs night into Fri morning.
Fri very cold day of only a few degrees for most, maybe up to 4C or so in parts of the W.
Sat much milder for most getting up to 14 or 15C in the S and only a few degrees in Northern counties as snow melts and under colder airmass.
LP fairly tight gradient set to bring windy conditions across parts of the country on Thurs also, hefty Windchill in Northern half of the country.
As is often the case with LP moving into a cold airmass that snow can fall in less cold conditions and has less distance to fall so can easily accumulate, if only for a couple of days.
A plethora of warnings to come no doubt. Freezing nights and icy mornings, heavy snow fall in parts, Thurs looks like a difficult day for driving and outdoor workers especially the farmers with livestock. Would want to be getting home early in the Northern half of the country, could be some heavy local falls. Thurs night snow continuing late until it clears the NE coast and looks set to freeze on top of settled snow and large tracts of the country that will be wet from the days precipitation so would think there could be a lot of snow still lying Fri morning in the the top third of the country and maybe some down into the midlands at a lesser degree along with tricky roads early Fri.
Maybe yellow wind warnings in parts of the W, NW on thurs , blustery overland in the Northern half of the country along with the expected snowfall.
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Temps at https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/temperatures.php?region=uk
dew points (v relevant for snow) at https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/point-de-rosee.php?region=uk
indeed dew points are tumbling...
For the uninitiated, crudely you want the combined sum of your areas temp and dew point to be 0c or below for snow. -3 DP can mean snow at 3c temp etc.
The guide to snow fall in Ireland is stickied on the home page of the weather forum here on boards - really well worth a read. See https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2057947753/parameters-required-for-guaranteed-snow-in-ireland
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