China v Taiwan. The next big conflict?

GerUpOttaTa

The one negative from a China pov is they haven't fought a hot war in over a generation. They can practice until the cows come home but it's no substitute for actual combat experience, either have Taiwan but China as the aggressor will have to make the running. Read a report on reuters recently that suggested China could lose more than 150k soldiers in the first week alone which even for a nation as large as theirs is a staggering amount of people.

Beta Ray Bill

@Gatling I suppose "on paper" they look threatening, but it remains to be seen actually how effective they would be in a combat scenario. Could be ground breaking or it could be another MiG-25 Foxbat.

My understanding is that the weapon doesn't reach above Mach 5 until its entered its terminal phase, and the reason it cannot be targeted is because of the plasma (ionized air?) wake/compression wave. No one in the west is sure exactly how the guidance system works in the terminal phase as it's guidance system should also be affected by its own envelope of ionized air (which would also affect radio signals so external guidance is not possible either).

Hopefully we'll never find out.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120516531#Comment_120516531

I have no idea what Xi Jinping has going on in his head but military might doesn't always equal victory. The "Greatest military the world has ever seen" has lost several wars...Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, tried to assassinate Castro over 600 times..

China can have all the battleships they want but any invasion of Taiwan would be suicidal. If every country on the planet supported China it would still be a suicide mission. Taiwan's geography alone (never mind their military) is a nightmare.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120517465#Comment_120517465

This piece from CNN argues similar. Say's it's a waste of time for Taiwan to go toe to toe with China in weaponry like fighter jets. Argues for the asymmetric approach, ie, missiles (being portable would be good here). How many missiles? "Tens of thousands" replies the analyst.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/15/asia/taiwan-china-invasion-defense-us-weapons-intl-hnk-dst/index.html

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120518843#Comment_120518843

They didn't lose Korea, despite fighting against, North Korea, Russia and china,the only reason north Korea exists today because china wanted a buffer between them south Korea and the US ,

The US didn't lose the war in Afghanistan either, Afghanistan was a thriving country not perfect but it was stable and people enjoyed Western freedom's and education, culture until the Russians came to town and bombed it back into the stone age before legging it with their tails between their legs,the US and NATO beat and removed the Taliban and brought the peace to the majority of Afghanistan for 20 years, until Trump came along and freed thousands of Taliban fighters ,and at the same time signed a legally binding withdrawal of US forces, which led to the collapse of the Afghan national army despite being give hundreds of billion of equipment and weapons,the Afghans failed,not America,

And we no have no real Idea if the taiwanese will actually fight they could easily roll over and surrender,

Oscar_Madison

To what degree would it hurt China economically to invade Taiwan?

Sanctions? Withdrawal of economic support? I just don’t see how the West could punish China economically without hurting itself equally at the same time.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120519330#Comment_120519330

Sanctions and Isolation would hurt a country like China a lot.

Importing of fuel accounts for 20% of Chinas imports (And it in itself was up 35% for 2022 vs the 2021), that would be one of the first things sanctioned.

Interestingly, China's biggest scarcity at the moment is fresh water (Particularly in the North East), there is no way to sanction this directly, but any sanctions relating to is heavy industrial equipment (which is Chinas biggest import) will cause infra issues.

Actual vs Reported Grain Production in China has always been grey. They are a net importer of food despite reported domestic production, which is quite unusual.

The Continental Op

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120519330#Comment_120519330

It would destroy China's manufacturing that relies on the most advanced chips, 90% of which are made in Taiwan. The West wouldn't be doing any punishing China would be doing it to themselves. They'd hurt America at the same time because America already buys 50% of the advanced chips that come out of Taiwan.

Its been said America would destroy TSMC rather than let China have it but I don't even think they need to do that as you can't manage the most state of the art manufacturing plant in the world by marching in with Red Guards and taking it over. TSMC is totally reliant on the West for all the main manufacturing components to run the factory. Cut off that supply and even if they could run it the TSMC plant stagnates and can't produce new chips and probably little of its previous now outdated output.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120519479#Comment_120519479

I'd say what would be more likely to happen is for the US to lift out the machinery and key staff rather than destroy it.

The Continental Op

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120519525#Comment_120519525

Its not a Russian WW2 tractor factory that you can move back from the frontline.

What is the world going to do for new chips while they are waiting the 5 years it takes to build a new manufacturing plant?

https://www.marketplace.org/2022/08/23/what-does-it-take-for-chip-manufacturers-to-get-a-new-plant-up-and-running/

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120519642#Comment_120519642

I understand that, but that I'm referring to are things like high end Photolithography machines (of which there are many Taiwan) they don't need to move the entire factory, just key pieces of equipment and people. Last I checked the UV Photolithography machines are around $300m a shot.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120519706#Comment_120519706

Can these EUV (extreme ultraviolet) machines be moved once they are set up in a particular place though? Getting them to work to the highest tolerances needed, especially for the higher end chips, must be quite a pain staking lengthy process I reckon. Well worth noting too that ASML (Dutch company) have a monopoly on the most advanced EUV technology which can’t be exported to China.

TheValeyard

So this is the Ross and Rachel for the next few years. Will China make a move or not.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120520682#Comment_120520682

If Xi Jinping considers the ‘reunification of the motherland’ a higher priority than keeping the Chinese economy growing thereby keeping its citizens reasonably content, then yes, he might invade Taiwan and put up with all the disruption that inevitably follows (sanctions on China etc). Of course if his gamble failed he’d be toast. The 1st October 2029 is a date to keep in mind, it being the 80th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. He might want it done and dusted by then so as to cement his legacy in Chinese history, well according to the CCP version of history anyway….

Why would China invade Taiwan if it led to WW3 and nuclear weapons being swapped?

The same reason why Russia will not - despite the nonsense spouted by Medvedev - interact direct with NATO.

These real problems will be resolved but through negotiated diplomacy and not through all-out war where everyone loses - including China.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120520988#Comment_120520988

Because China is an autocratic regime led by a guy in the process of creating a cult of personality similar to what Mao Zedong had. Remember Zedong and the CCP are to blame for the catastrophe that was the famine caused by the ‘Great Leap Forward’ in the early 1960s. Up to 50 million may have died in it. Following on from this, Xi and the CCP leadership would consider WW3 an acceptable risk if it meant getting their way IMO.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120521121#Comment_120521121

So China would risk WW3 and their own elimination, to gain Taiwan, in the process of mutual assured destruction?

Nah...not buying it.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120521135#Comment_120521135

Hmmm, you might be underestimating the lengths autocrats will go to to achieve their aims. Theres a big picture of Mao Zedong in Tiananmen Square. If the CCP still venerates a man responsible for the deaths of millions of their own, why would they care about those outside their borders?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120521187#Comment_120521187

There's quite a chasm between millions of deaths, and mutual assured destruction where the country itself ceases to exist.

Second, you assume that officers down the chain of command will just accept what the dictator leader demands.

Third, the fact that Taiwan has remained a stalemate suggests that Chinese leaders understand perfectly well the consequences of their actions - as per what I've outlined, and are not as reckless as you suggest they may be.

To gain Taiwan at the expense of losing China makes no sense. That's why the stalemate exists to begin with.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120521220#Comment_120521220

“Second, you assume that officers down the chain of command will just accept what the dictator leader demands.”

In the most autocratic of regimes, dissent, even amongst the military, is rare. Look at Stalin, the Kim il Sung dynasty in North Korea, not to mention China itself. Loyalty to a cultivated group or leader is a big thing in certain human psyches. Fear will encourage loyalty too. As regards the current stalemate it’s widely accepted that the PLA isn’t ready for a move against Taiwan yet.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120520988#Comment_120520988

Who's launching nuclear weapons now

Gatling

Mig 31 lost over (technical) murmansk north east Russia.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1651238030772928513?s=20

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1651239378205769729?s=20

Gatling

.....

Gatling

Wrong thread 😭

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120526704#Comment_120526704

Rebel Pepper’s take on it. Great cartoonist. He’s always lampooning Xi Jinping. Draws him as a Winnie the Pooh character. Needless to say it’s banned in China.

https://www.rfa.org/english/cartoons/macron-xijinping-04142023144718.html

It's not on the front pages currently but China's codology continues regardless.

https://focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait/202306300006

brickster69

Taliban1 - After spending 20 years trying to get rid of us and they ran away from Kabul, guess what they have done now ?

Taliban2 - I don't know

Taliban1 - They started a proxy war with Russia using Ukraine.

Taliban2 - You are joking ?

Taliban1 - No honest i saw it on BBC, they even started 12 rounds of sanctions against them. They even said Russia have to strip washing machines for chips so they can make missiles.

Taliban2 - Hahahahaha, you are joking right.

Taliban1 - No honest it was on CNN as well, now guess what they have decided to do

Taliban2 - Pack it man, i can't stop laughing.

Taliban1 - Honest it is all true, guess what they are going to do now ?

Taliban2 - Behave man , i can't stop laughing. Ok what are they going to do now ?

Taliban1 - Start a sanctions war with China and looks like they will go to war with them as well.

Taliban2 - HAHAHAHAHA :)

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120813644#Comment_120813644

If they made semiconductors in Afghanistan, the Yanks would still be there.....

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120813683#Comment_120813683

Good job Taiwan has an election coming up soon, sounds like they have an option of becoming a broken bankrupt country like Ukraine or become more like Hong Kong. Who would you vote for ?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120813727#Comment_120813727

Taiwan corrupt? I don't think so. 25th (out of 180 countries) least corrupt in the world according to Transparency International. Since democracy got squashed in Hong Kong, Taiwan won't be going down that path I'm fairly certain.