May 2023 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

MAX 22.5 on FRIDAY 26TH at SHANNON.

DOCARCH

High of 23.4c at Mount Dillon yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks,

IMT on 12.6, fourth week average 13.2 was 1.3 above normal.

MAX 23.4 and MIN 1.6

PRC is now down to 65% of normal after a bone dry week (1% average). Three more dry days would drop this to 60%.

SUN now up to 98% with the fourth week average 157% (despite Belmullet being only at 87%). Three more sunny days (incl today) would push this perhaps to 105%.

BONUS already scored and preliminary scoring posted above, will not be edited again until values confirmed.

M.T. Cranium

Mountdillon edged down to MIN of 1.5 on 29th.

June forecast thread is now open.

Tae laidir

Shannon flying high at 25deg at 18.00.

M.T. Cranium

This warm, dry sunny spell could end up making my forecast borderline respectable at the final whistle. Any chance of a day-long car rally around Shannon's parking lots tomorrow?

pauldry

Yeah I'm 2.6c off min n 2.1c off max so 0 points. Unless tomorrow....

rameire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120659129#Comment_120659129

A confirmed 24.9 at Shannon.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1663660676131311617?t=OCuAKnKxPe_RBS3x5spoTg&s=19

M.T. Cranium

Updated scoring estimates for May 2023

Scores are based on mostly known values, IMT at 12.66 after 30 days (edit) ended up 12.74, SUN to be confirmed tomorrow from MS. It may end up even a bit above 105% given past 3 days of nearly 225%.

Annual scoring update tomorrow, and category scoring update, also four seasons update.

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN ___ Max 3rd Mtdillon

Confirmed values ________12.7_24.9_1.5_060_105 ____ 19.2 // ___ TOTALS

Sunflower3 _____________20 _ 18 _ 06*_ 12*_ 08 ___ 09 _____ 73

Artane2002 ____________ 22 _ 19 _ 09*_ 06*_ 07 ___ 09 _____ 72

MrSkinner _____________ 23 _ 19 _ 06*_ 12*_ 07 ___ 04 _____ 71

sryanbruen ____________ 23 _ 20 _ 04*_ 07*_ 08 ___ 09 _____ 71

200motels _____________25 _ 18 _ 06*_ 07*_ 07 ___ 06 _____ 69

Tae laidir ______________ 23 _ 08 _ 20*_ 04*_ 08 ___ 06 _____ 69

___ Con sensus _________ 18 _ 19 _ 06*_ 08*_ 09 ___ 07 _____ 67

Dasa29 ________________18 _ 11 _ 04*_ 12*_ 09 ___ 08 _____ 62

john mac _____ (-1) _____ 17 _ 14 _ 08*_ 09*_ 09 ___ 06 _63-1=62

Rameire _______________ 17 _ 05 _ 16*_ 07*_ 09 ___ 08 _____ 62

Adam240610 ___________ 23 _ 02 _ 10*_ 15*_ 04 ___ 07 _____ 61

Gonzo _________________20 _ 09 _ 06*_ 10*_ 09 ___ 07 _____ 61

M.T. Cranium ___________ 21 _ 00 _ 08*_ 15*_ 06 ___ 10 _____ 60

aah yes _______ (-3) ____ 17 _ 12 _ 04*_ 13*_ 09 ___ 07 _62-3=59

Cornerstonelad __________18 _ 09 _ 04*_ 08*_ 07 ___ 11 _____ 57

Kindred Spirit ___________18 _ 11 _ 01*_ 08*_ 08 ___ 08 _____ 54

waterways _____________ 15 _ 00 _ 18*_ 06*_ 08 ___ 07 _____ 54

DOCARCH ______________17 _ 03 _ 04*_ 13*_ 10 ___ 05 _____ 52

Pauldry ________________23 _ 00 _ 04*_ 07*_ 09 ___ 06 _____ 49

Mr stonewall ____________17 _ 00 _ 19*_ 05*_ 07 ___ 01 _____ 49

Bsal _________ (-9) _____ 18 _ 01 _ 04*_ 12*_ 09 ___ 10 _54-9=45

Joe Public ______________ 17 _ 13 _ 00 _ 02*_ 07 ___ 04 _____ 43

___ NormaL ____________ 08 _ 16 _ 01*_ 08*_ 09 ___ 01 _____ 43

Dacogawa ______________15 _ 09 _ 05*_ 00 _ 06 ___ 05 _____ 40

Appledrop ______________16 _ 03 _ 04*_ 03*_ 07 ___ 01 _____ 34

__ * scores boosted by minimum progression

==========================

(actual forecasts)

200motels _____________ 12.7 _ 25.1 _ -0.7 _ 104 _ 092 ___ 16.4

Pauldry ________________12.5 _ 27.0 _ -1.1 _ 107 _ 100 ___ 16.1

Adam240610 ___________ 12.5 _ 26.7 _ -0.1 _ 080 _ 135 ___ 16.6

Tae laidir ______________ 12.5 _ 26.1 _ +1.4 _ 118 _ 094 ___ 16.0

MrSkinner _____________ 12.5 _ 25.0 _ -0.6 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 24.1

sryanbruen ____________ 12.5 _ 24.9 _ -0.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 17.1

Artane2002 ____________ 12.4 _ 24.8 _ -0.3 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 17.3

M.T. Cranium ___________ 12.3 _ 27.5 _ -0.5 _ 080 _ 125 ___ 20.5

Sunflower3 _____________12.2 _ 25.1 _ -0.8 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 17.3

Gonzo _________________12.2 _ 23.8 _ -0.8 _ 096 _ 102 ___ 16.7

Dasa29 ________________12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 17.0

Kindred Spirit ___________12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.0

___ Con sensus _________ 12.0 _ 24.8 _ -0.8 _ 100 _ 099 ___ 16.7

Cornerstonelad __________12.0 _ 23.8 _ -1.1 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 19.7

Bsal _________ (-9) _____ 12.0 _ 23.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 112 ___ 18.0

john mac _____ (-1) _____ 11.9 _ 25.5 _ -0.5 _ 098 _ 100 ___ 16.2

Joe Public ______________ 11.9 _ 24.2 _ -2.1 _ 124 _ 091 ___ 14.1

aah yes _______ (-3) ____ 11.9 _ 24.1 _ -1.2 _ 089 _ 111 ___ 16.8

Rameire _______________ 11.9 _ 23.4 _ +0.8 _ 105 _ 099 ___ 17.0

DOCARCH ______________11.9 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 087 _ 105 ___ 15.3

Mr stonewall ____________11.9 _ 22.7_ +1.2 _ 112 _ 088 ___ 14.3

Appledrop ______________11.8 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 120 _ 092 ___ 14.2

waterways _____________ 11.7 _ 27.6 _ +1.1 _ 109 _ 097 ___ 16.7

Dacogawa ______________11.7 _ 26.0 _ -1.0 _ 136 _ 086 ___ 15.5

___ NormaL ____________11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 14.5

==========================

M.T. Cranium

Note: Scoring above is adjusted as follows, SUN scores are generally up or down by 1 point. Otherwise, MS values are either same as indicated above, or (PRC) do not affect scoring (PRC = 61%, SUN = 110%) ... forecasters with one extra point for SUN are Adam, MTC, MrSkinner, Dasa29, Bsal, aah yes. All others are reduced by one point except Kindred Spirit whose SUN score was erroneously entered as 8 which is now correct so that score remains 54. I have checked and adjusted all others to confirm the changes which you can verify in the table below the category scoring.

Congrats to sunflower3 and Mr Skinner who are tied at 72 points after the adjustments, with Artane2002 at 71 and sryanbruen at 70 points.

___ Annual scoring summary Jan-May 2023 ___

Starting this month, annual scoring and category scoring are now in separate tables.

Also this month, best 4/5 scores are ranked at end of each scoring row, but the table continues to be based on total scores for all months.

Rank (prev)_FORECASTER __ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY __ TOTAL __ Best 4/5 (rank) ((prev rank 3/4))

_ 00.8 (02.0)_ Con Sensus __ 65 __ 74 __ 58 __ 64 __ 66 ____ 327 ___ 269 _ (04.0) _ ((03.7))

_t01 (t3) _tae laidir ________38 __ 64 __ 72 __ 80 __ 68 ____ 322 ___ 284 _ ( 1 ) __ ((01))

_t01 (01) _Kindred Spirit ____58 __ 74 __ 74 __ 62 __ 54 ____ 322 ___ 268 _ ( 5 ) __ ((03))

_ 03 (06) _sryanbruen ______46 __ 76 __ 68 __ 55 __ 70 ____ 315 ___ 269 _ ( 4 ) __ ((t07))

_ 04 (02) _DOCARCH _______77 __ 67 __ 69 __ 48 __ 51 ____ 312 ___ 264 _ ( 6 ) __ ((02))

_ 05 (08) _Sunflower3 ______47 __ 69 __ 39 __ 84 __ 72 ____ 311 ___ 272 _ ( 2 ) __ ((06))

_ 06 (05) _john mac _______ 58 __ 47 __ 71 __ 72 __ 61 ____ 309 ___ 262 _ ( 7 ) __ ((05))

_ 07 (07) _adam240610 ____ 61 __ 61 __ 65 __ 57 __ 62 ____ 306 ___ 249 _ (t10)__((t11))

(7.0)(1.6) _ NormaL ______67 __ 44 __ 76 __ 77 __ 42 ____ 306 ___ 264 _ (6.0) _((00.8))

_ 08 (09) _M.T. Cranium _____67 __ 70 __ 44 __ 54 __ 61 ____ 296 ___ 252 _ ( 9 ) __ ((09))

_t09 (t3) _Appledrop _______ 53 __ 64 __ 73 __ 64 __ 33 ____ 287 ___ 254 _ ( 8 ) __ ((04))

_t09 (15)_200 motels _______41 __ 74 __ 38 __ 66 __ 68 ____ 287 ___ 249 _ (t10)__((13))

_ 11 (14)_Gonzo ___________46 __ 69 __ 52 __ 58 __ 60 ____ 285 ___ 239 _ (12) __((14))

_t12 (11) _Bsal ____________71 __ 49 __ 42 __ 68 __ 46 ____ 276 ___ 234 _ (t13) __((10))

_t12 (12) _Pauldry _________ 50 __ 62 __ 66 __ 50 __ 48 ____ 276 ___ 228 _ (t16) __((15))

_ 14 (19) _Artane2002 (4/5)__50 __ 71 __ 78 __ --- __ 71 ____ 270 ___ 270 _ ( 3 ) __((t07))

_t15 (13) _Dacogawa _______ 63 __ 58 __ 54 __ 51 __ 39 ____ 265 ___ 226 _ (18) __((16))

_t15 (18)_Dasa29 __________61 __ 54 __ 42 __ 45 __ 63 ____ 265 ___ 223 _ (20) __((22))

_ 17 (23) _MrSkinner ________25 __ 69 __ 34 __ 53 __ 72 ____ 253 ___ 228 _ (t16) __((t23))

_ 18 (17)_Joe Public ________ 46 __ 48 __ 53 __ 63 __ 42 ____ 252 ___ 210 _ (23) __((20))

_t19 (20) _ waterways _______52 __ 27 __ 41 __ 76 __ 53 ____ 249 ___ 222 _ (21) __((18))

_t19 (21) _Cornerstonelad ____49 __ 61 __ 25 __ 58 __ 56 ____ 249 ___ 224 _ (19) __((19))

_ 21 (22) _Rameire _________ 10 __ 68 __ 52 __ 53 __ 61 ____ 244 ___ 234 _ (t13) __((17))

_ 22 (10) _WolfeEire (4/5) ____76 __ 47 __ 59 __ 52 __ --- ____ 234 ___ 234 _ (t13)__((t11))

_ 23 (24) _ Mr.stonewall _____45 __ 30 __ 54 __ 48 __ 48 ____ 225 ___ 195 _ (24) __ ((25))

_ 24 (16)_ Jpmarn __________61 __ 49 __ 50 __ 51 __ --- ____ 211 ___ 211 _ (22) __((21))

_ 25 (25)_esposito (3/5) _____ 54 __ 57 __ 45 __ -- __ --- ____ 156 ___ 156 _ (25) __((t23))

_ 26 (26) _Rebelbrowser (1/5) _78 __ --- __ -- __ -- __ -- _____ 78

_ 27 (---) _Aah yes (1/5) _____ --- __ --- __ -- __ -- __ 60 ____ 60

_ 28 (27) _ Danno (1/5) ______58 __ --- __ -- __ -- __ -- _____ 58

___________________________________

___ Category scoring totals Jan-May ____

FORECASTER ____ IMT _MAX _MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS __ TOTAL (total before late pens)

Max Possible _____120 _100 _100 _ 75 _ 50 __ 50 ____ 500

_ Con Sensus _____85 _ 70 _ 53 _ 49 _ 36 __ 34 ____ 327

Kindred Spirit _____84 _ 66 _ 61 _ 44 _ 31 __ 36 ____ 322

Tae laidir ________111 _54 _ 65 _ 22 _ 35 __ 35 ____ 322

sryanbruen _______93 _ 61 _ 55 _ 48 _ 33 __ 25 _____315

DOCARCH _______ 76 _ 62 _ 54 _ 61 _ 34 __ 25 _____ 312

Sunflower3 _______93 _ 63 _ 41 _ 45 _ 36 __ 33 ____ 311

john mac _________82 _ 54 _ 61 _ 51 _ 37 __ 25 ____ 309 (310)

adam240610 ______87 _ 45 _ 59 _ 53 _ 33 __ 29 ____ 306

_ NormaL _______65 _ 61 _ 52 _ 54 _ 37 __ 37 ____ 306

M.T. Cranium _____ 89 _ 19 _ 58 _ 61 _ 37 __ 32 ____ 296

Appledrop ________89 _ 36 _ 51 _ 47 _ 41 __ 23 ____ 287

200 motels _______94 _ 63 _ 35 _ 50 _ 34 __ 25 ____ 287 (301)

Gonzo ___________92 _ 54 _ 24 _ 52 _ 31 __ 34 ____ 285 (287)

Bsal ____________ 89 _ 43 _ 41 _ 43 _ 39 __ 30 ____ 276 (285)

Pauldry __________89 _ 44 _ 30 _ 58 _ 34 __ 21 ____ 276

Artane2002 (4/5) __77 _ 54 _ 42 _ 41 _ 29 __ 27 ____ 270

Dacogawa ________86 _ 55 _ 34 _ 27 _ 34 __ 29 ____ 265

Dasa29 __________71 _ 35 _ 35 _ 53 _ 39 __ 32 ____ 265

MrSkinner ________87 _ 55 _ 33 _ 38 _ 28 __ 14 ____ 253 (255)

Joe Public ________75 _ 71 _ 25 _ 34 _ 31 __ 20 ____ 252 (256) 

waterways _______ 61 _ 38 _ 43 _ 36 _ 37 __ 34 ____ 249

Cornerstonelad ____75 _ 50 _ 39 _ 39 _ 22 __ 31 ____ 249 (256)

Rameire _________ 84 _ 40 _ 31 _ 46 _ 36 __ 35 ____ 244 (272)

WolfeEire (4/5) ____61 _ 35 _ 49 _ 43 _ 24 __ 22 ____ 234

Mr.stonewall ______66 _ 32 _ 45 _ 29 _ 28 __ 25 ____ 225

Jpmarn ___(4/5)___58 _ 17 _ 43 _ 40 _ 24 __ 29 ____ 211

esposito __ (3/5)___54 _ 32 _ 05 _ 31 _ 18 __ 16 ____ 156

Rebelbrowser (1/5)_15 _ 16 _ 18 _ 12 _ 08 __ 09 ____ 78

aah yes____(1/5)__17 _ 12 _ 04 _ 13 _ 10 __ 07 ____ 60 (63)

Danno ____ (1/5) _ 13 _ 20 _ 02 _ 10 _ 05 __ 08 ____ 58

___________________________________

In category scoring (Jan to May totals), high score is bold, 2nd is bold italic and 3rd plain italic.

MAX _ two tied for third place. Con Sensus would be second.

MIN _ two tied for second place, thus no third place indicated.

PRC _ two tied for first place, thus no second place indicated, but third is shown.

SUN _ two tied for second place, thus no third place indicated.

BONUS _ two tied for second place, thus no third place indicated. NormaL would be first alone.

Order is same as determined by total scores in annual scoring summary above this table.

Not all have any late penalties, but those who do will have their contest score (after penalties) in the TOTAL column and the total before penalties (the sum of the category scores) in brackets and italic font, after their contest score.

============

Adjusted Scoring for May

FORECASTER __________ IMT _MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___BONUS __TOTAL

Sunflower3 _____________20 _ 18 _ 06*_ 12*_ 07 ___ 09 _____ 72

MrSkinner _____________ 23 _ 19 _ 06*_ 12*_ 08 ___ 04 _____ 72

Artane2002 ____________ 22 _ 19 _ 09*_ 06*_ 06 ___ 09 _____ 71

sryanbruen ____________ 23 _ 20 _ 04*_ 07*_ 07 ___ 09 _____ 70

200motels _____________25 _ 18 _ 06*_ 07*_ 06 ___ 06 _____ 68

Tae laidir ______________ 23 _ 08 _ 20*_ 04*_ 07 ___ 06 _____ 68

___ Con sensus _________ 18 _ 19 _ 06*_ 08*_ 08 ___ 07 _____ 66

Dasa29 ________________18 _ 11 _ 04*_ 12*_ 10 ___ 08 _____ 63

Adam240610 ___________ 23 _ 02 _ 10*_ 15*_ 05 ___ 07 _____ 62

john mac _____ (-1) _____ 17 _ 14 _ 08*_ 09*_ 08 ___ 06 _62-1=61

Rameire _______________ 17 _ 05 _ 16*_ 07*_ 08 ___ 08 _____ 61

M.T. Cranium ___________ 21 _ 00 _ 08*_ 15*_ 07 ___ 10 _____ 61

Gonzo _________________20 _ 09 _ 06*_ 10*_ 08 ___ 07 _____ 60

aah yes ____ (-3) _______ 17 _ 12 _ 04*_ 13*_ 10 ___ 07 _63-3=60

Cornerstonelad __________18 _ 09 _ 04*_ 08*_ 06 ___ 11 _____ 56

Kindred Spirit ___________18 _ 11 _ 01*_ 08*_ 08 ___ 08 _____ 54

waterways _____________ 15 _ 00 _ 18*_ 06*_ 07 ___ 07 _____ 53

DOCARCH ______________17 _ 03 _ 04*_ 13*_ 09 ___ 05 _____ 51

Pauldry ________________23 _ 00 _ 04*_ 07*_ 08 ___ 06 _____ 48

Mr stonewall ____________17 _ 00 _ 19*_ 05*_ 06 ___ 01 _____ 48

Bsal _________ (-9) _____ 18 _ 01 _ 04*_ 12*_ 10 ___ 10 _55-9=46

Joe Public ______________ 17 _ 13 _ 00 _ 02*_ 06 ___ 04 _____ 42

___ NormaL ____________ 08 _ 16 _ 01*_ 08*_ 08 ___ 01 _____ 42

Dacogawa ______________15 _ 09 _ 05*_ 00 _ 05 ___ 05 _____ 39

Appledrop ______________16 _ 03 _ 04*_ 03*_ 06 ___ 01 _____ 33

Four seasons contest report to follow ...

As there are quite a few forecasters near the top of the ranks now, congrats to all, looks like quite a competitive contest this year. Note, Artane2002 missed one month and is well down in total score but third in best 4/5 so right in the battle for the main contest. Kindred Spirit, tae laidir, Sunflower3, sryanbruen, DOCARCH, john mac and Adam240610 all very close in scoring, and our nemesis Con Sensus has moved ahead while NormaL fell back in May.

appledrop

33 this month Sweet Jesus, remember when I used to be actually good at this contest😁

M.T. Cranium

We've all been there, and the best 10/12 contest format lets you drop these occasional stinkers.

On to the four seasons update next, as I sip malt beverages and watch golf on TV (only the first few days of the month are like this, the rest of the month is more like sipping malt beverages as I play golf).

M.T. Cranium

Four seasons contest -- Spring update

The contest awards ten points for top total score in each season, and seven points for second, six for third, etc, down to one point for 8th to 12th places, and anyone else who gets at least 170 points (if applicable, was not in winter as 170 was 12th and in spring 12th was 166). The following table of scoring shows the winter segment results, and adds the spring (March-April-May) points, for total points in the final column.

FORECASTER ___ Winter TOTAL __Points _[]_ Spring TOTAL __ Points ____ TOTAL POINTS so far

adam240610 ________ 208 ____ 10 __________ 184 ________ 3 _________ 13

sryanbruen _________ 196 _____ 6 __________ 193 ________ 5 _________ 11

Tae laidir ____________142 _____ 0 __________ 220 ________10 _________10

___ Con Sensus ______ 190 _____ 5.0 ________ 188 ________ 3.7 ________ 8.7

Kindred Spirit ________ 180 _____ 4 __________190 ________ 4 __________ 8

DOCARCH ___________ 204 _____ 7 __________168 ________ 1 __________ 8

john mac ____________146 _____ 0 __________ 204 ________ 7 __________ 7

Sunflower3 __________ 172 _____ 1 __________ 195 ________ 6 __________ 7

__ NormaL __________ 164 _____ 0 ___________195 ________ 6.0 ________ 6.0

WolfeEire ____________ 190 _____ 5 __________111*________ 0 __________ 5

Gonzo _______________180 _____ 4 __________170 ________ 1 __________ 5

Artane2002 __________ 179 _____ 2 _________ 149* ______ 0 __________ 2

200motels __________ 175 _____ 1 __________ 172 ________ 2 __________ 3

Appledrop ___________ 170 _____ 1 __________ 170 ________ 1 __________ 2

Dacogawa ___________ 175 _____ 1 __________ 144 ________ 0 __________ 1

waterways ___________126 _____ 0 ___________170 ________ 1 __________ 1

esposito _____________171 _____ 1 ___________ 45** ______ 0 __________ 1

Rameire ______________78*^___ 0 ___________166 ________ 1 __________ 1

Jpmarn _____________ 168 _____ 0 ___________101*________0 __________ 0

M.T. Cranium _________167 _____ 0 ___________159 ________ 0 __________ 0

Bsal ________________160 _____ 0 ___________156 ________ 0 __________ 0

Joe Public ___________ 155 _____ 0 ___________158 ________ 0 __________ 0

Dasa29 _____________ 147 _____ 0 ___________150 ________ 0 __________ 0

Pauldry _____________ 147 _____ 0 ___________164 ________ 0 __________ 0

MrSkinner ___________ 141 _____ 0 ___________159 ________ 0 __________ 0

Mr stonewall _________ 139 _____ 0 ___________150 ________ 0 __________ 0

Cornerstonelad _______ 110*_____0 ___________139 ________ 0 __________ 0

_______________________

_ * played only two of three contests

_** played one contest (only reported if points already scored)

_*^ played Jan-Feb but large late penalty (10 points Jan, 68 Feb)

=======================

Appears to be a wide-open contest going forward.