Summer 2023 - General Discussion

ThaitaniumM

Sky news: European Heatwave

Ireland:

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120846994#Comment_120846994

That's a good summary, but I think it's important to be accurate - at Phoenix Park in the first week of June the temperature reached 18 degrees on three days. The lowest maximum that week was 15 degrees, reached on the 2nd and the 7th. This is not that unusual for early June and is not exactly struggling to get out of the low teens.

I don't like being pedantic but there is a huge amount of misinformation and inaccuracies on this thread, which is very odd when all the information is a few clicks away.

KanyeSouthEast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847244#Comment_120847244

Happy to clear it up for you. Actually my real point which got lost was the assertion that May was called a “brilliant” month.

Mantis Toboggan

The temperatures were decent, it was that easterly breeze that kept everything feeling chilly!

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847244#Comment_120847244

It'll be the same story for July. In a few weeks' time we'll have the usual posters telling us what a miserable and cold July it was.

It's been grey and very wet at times this month. For sure. But temps in the East are actually close to normal for the time of year. Indeed PP station is running slightly ABOVE its long-term average. Albeit not so mild further West with most stations a bit below average.

I'm always amazed at how the same people who post so often on this forum don't seem to bother checking stats and facts.

I think arguments also stem from the utterly unrealistic expectations some posters have about Irish summers. Many also let the current weather completely cloud their judgement. The same people harping on about how great the weather was in June seem to be the same ones now saying it wasn't that great after all.

Anyway, there are hints again at slightly more settled weather on the long-range ECM charts. Fingers crossed things pick up after this weekend (which will be miserable).

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847476#Comment_120847476

Sorry, wasn't actually referring to you this time! You did indeed clear it up.

@sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847567#Comment_120847567

There was an excellent post on this by @sryanbruen I think. Explained it all very well.

pad199207

The east escaping the worst of the rain tomorrow.

pauldry

There should be a wind warning too as winds of over 90kph on Saturday together with fully leaved trees spells danger. Windier than last weekend.

Kutebride

Crikey biblical rain here for 30 mins. Meath. Passed now. Nicely timed with the kids evening activities of course; drowned rats. Least it warm rain lol.

Cluedo Monopoly

There is fair heat in that sun when it does appear. Next 2 days look very wet. I'll be fishing Saturday and while the fish tend to feed better in rain, it won't be very pleasant.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847795#Comment_120847795

I'm going hitting the coast tomorrow evening hopefully, expect to get drenched but got two waterproof seat covers for the car for myself and my buddy!

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847853#Comment_120847853

To be honest, mullicking around in summer rain can be great fun. Swimming in the sea in heavy rain can bring childhood memories back.

One of the greatest pleasures in summer rain is to sit under a big tree. I don't know what it is but it's very soothing and grounding.

pauldry

A shower of 7.5mm around 7pm but now just steady rain. If 50mm is the forecast figure over the coming days we have already got 9mm of it. 41mm to go?

KanyeSouthEast

Dull grey slate skies listless kind of an evening. Long for those warm sunny blue skies evenings of early June.

sryanbruen

These are the current standing rainfall totals (mm) for July 2023 across Irish stations along with % of the whole month average. Oak Park and Moore Park have already reached their whole July average with numerous others in the Midlands and the south also nearly there. Thought it would be good to have a table of these before the very wet weather tomorrow and Saturday.

pauldry

Interestingly Sligo one of the driest (Markree 33mm) Sligo town was 38mm before today. Its now 50mm and will be 100mm by Monday.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847904#Comment_120847904

Indeed something special about swimming in the rain, head just peaking over the surface and rain falling all around like the scene of Martin Sheen from Apocalypse Now without the mud 😅 or just taking time out watching a heavy summer shower go by and the sun coming out again with the fresh scent of growth filling the lungs and those dazzling white towering clouds and the place drying up in no time.

There's no doubt though that continuous grey skies and wet days gives the feeling of the summer slipping away added by the fact that noticing more the dark coming in quicker now . But you never know August might be a knockout yet and I always love a good September which I would think is easier to get than a good summer, sryanbruen probably rolling his eyes at that statement 🤣, I've no idea what the stats are in relation to the comparison of September to July or August regarding rain days/ light etc. but I have some fond memories of good weather and warm days during September but probably select memories looking back through rose-tinted glasses.

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847613#Comment_120847613

That's at odds with Met Eireann's forecast, they're forecasting 40mm between 8am and 6pm for South Wicklow tomorrow.

glightning

A lot of tetchiness on the forum lately because different people have different views on how the summer is going!

Clearly the fact we even have to talk about this means it hasn’t been that great overall (so far). Yeah, everyone is getting regional variations and that muddies the opinions from everyone as we’ve had different experiences up to now.

But overall (at half way through the summer) I hear a lot of non-weather people around my area (friends, family, work colleagues, people in the shop, etc, etc) speaking to each other about how crap the summer is turning out. Lots of people. These are people who normally don’t give a crap what is going on with the weather.

I don’t care about online stats saying average, slightly above average, or not… Averages are over 24 hours and include nighttime temps which nobody really cares about most of the time. Mins have been inflated due to high sea temps which offsets only average or below average maxes recently.

Daytime maxes (and sky conditions) are what counts when it comes to summer (that’s June, July, August). That’s when we are all up and about wanting to enjoy ourselves. That’s what Joe Public cares about.

If you had a summer full of clear nights but overcast and wet days but with average temps stats wise, you’d hardly call it a good summer!

There’s been plenty of late evening clear skies and stars this summer here in the NE ;-)

Hopefully this pattern will break soon enough. After all, it is just a weather pattern. Jet stream needs to go north again. I doubt we’ll see this until August. Failing that, maybe an Indian summer in the autumn. There’s a lot of heat in Europe now. Would be nice for a pattern to set up and bring some of that our way in August.

Hello weather wizards. I have a crystal ball question I hope you all don't mind me asking 😬

I am going to Malaga in October. I picked this month because my research tells me that it will be perfect temperature for sightseeing and exploring. It won't have the hot temps of the previous few months.

My tolerance only goes to about 25°. Climate is changing so maybe going by historical figures is unwise.

I was in Alicante last October and it was absolutely unbearable for me. I was sick with the heat.

So given all of that would the second last week in October be risky in terms of 25+ temps? Or should I trust the yearly averages which gives a max of 24?

Insight appreciated 😊

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848650#Comment_120848650

For your neck of the woods it was the warmest June on record. Max temperatures were 3.9c above average and minimum temperatures were 2.1c above average. It was also the 8th sunniest June on record. Max temperature 3.9c above average is extraordinary.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848739#Comment_120848739

Impossible to say. You wouldn’t really have a good idea until a week or so beforehand. You could delay it until the 1st of November and that week could end up being warmer than the week you planned even though it’s less likely. The record high for Malaga airport in October is 36.3c , November is 30.4c.

El Niño this year so higher chance of a wetter winter in med areas so it could be completely different to recent years. Maybe just chance it for the second last week in October as you planned rather than November.

KanyeSouthEast

Horrendous morning. We’ll flagged obviously but still so disappointing another july weekend looks like disappearing down the plug hole.

glightning

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848742#Comment_120848742

That was heavily biased toward the first half of June though (1/6th of the summer only) and we haven't had anything like it since. And it was June. So even if it was extraordinary, the reality is that I wouldn't class it as a prolonged heatwave because we only achieved 25c or more maxes on 3 days in a row (which is the minimum threshold for heatwave conditions in NI).

It's also worth pointing out that it was very much warmest in the W and NW of the provence rather than the provence as a whole. The area around Derry record the highest temps most of those days because it had the clearest skies during the daytime and had the longest land track from the easterly breezes.

Where I live, we were lucky enough to be inland enough to be in the partly cloudy / mostly sunny part of the Provence during that spell. And maxes temps where generally in the 20c to 25c range with nearby Aldergrove airport reaching 27c on one or two days. Nothing outstanding if you were comparing this to summer heatwaves of the past.

I'm not taking away the fact it was a good spell of weather. It was. I really enjoyed it. But regardless of records being broken during that time, because it occurred from 26th May (we didn't have good weather until that date) through to 17th June which is early summer, the heat was far from exceptional feeling when in the past (in July / August usually) we've had more prolonged spells of high twenties with the odd 30c thrown in.

mcburns07

MT's forecast for the next couple of weeks makes for grim reading. Well and truly stuck in this pattern with no end in sight.

glightning

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120849032#Comment_120849032

Things will eventually change. I remember seeing early long range forecasts (inc. from the UK Met Office) going for a HP dominated summer which turned out to be totally wrong despite them having good signals for going for those forecasts. A pattern flip could come at any time really. A lot of it really has to do with how things turn out in the USA over the coming weeks, since what they are getting drives a lot of the jet stream action in the Atlantic.

If you look at the 850mb chart below, you can see we are well below average next week. But notice the amount of uncertainty towards the right of the chart with some members going warm. The white line (the average of the runs) is currently staying below average. But it's possible that white line might start to go to average or above in coming runs if a pattern change is actually on the way.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120849032#Comment_120849032

Grim stuff here in Cork City. Pouring down, even if the wind is nowhere near what was forecast. Thankfully I was watching the forecast closely and picked my chances to get out on the bike well.

mcburns07

Ah ya totally accept that anything beyond the working week next week is pure fantasy but i'd still prefer if it was showing something more promising :)

It's been an alright week here in Cork up until today, not high summer standards but passable.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848650#Comment_120848650

Some good points here. FWIW I'd say only a madman would try to use stats to dress up the last few weeks. The weather has gone seriously downhill.

The overall good v bad summer debate doesn't concern me at all and I have no idea why some people are so obsessed with such a meaningless metric. The weather is the weather and good v bad part are subjective terms. I've had a great summer so far and the weather has been mostly kind to me and the things I need to do.

I think my issue with this thread at times is people playing fast and loose with the truth and making fairly sweeping statements that can be easily picked apart with a few clicks of a mouse.

That spell of weather in June ended over three weeks ago now and it does feel like a lifetime ago in a way. I think it's easy to forget how good it was, but luckily we have data to fall back on.

No amount of mental gymnastics will change weather we have already experienced. The evidence is there and easily available showing that for the vast, vast majority of the country June was an exceptional spell of weather by nearly all metrics.

Anyway, it's pi**ing rain here in Cork and looks like it will be for a while yet.