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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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3rd wettest if current avg rain per day continue but that will change.
UK rainfall records don't go back to 1600s. The national rainfall record goes back to 1836. It's likely to be the 6th wettest for the UK since then based on current mm per day but with more rain, this can easily change to higher ranks.
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August is not looking good it has to be said, the first half is likely to be a continuation of the current setup just that there will be less daylight and maybe even lower temperatures. I'm beginning to have my doubts about an improving second half but there is still a small sliver of hope I suppose but it is starting to look like the incredibly unsettled and generally cool setup may end up taking up two thirds of the entire summer. IF that happens eastern areas would have only had 2 weeks of summer which is not good at all, even for Ireland. I still maintain the back to school week should offer some sort of an improvement but summer is technically over by then.
Summer is technically 1st of June to August 31, but for many people summer for them is really July and August when the kids are off from school and I really feel sorry for them this year.
The unsettled muck just goes on and on, staying wet throughout especially during the weekends with multiple washouts to come. the Azores high looks almost displaced staying well out into the mid Atlantic and more towards the american side keeping summer far away from Irish shores.
Post edited by Gonzo on5 -
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Thoughts on the first half of August settling down are starting to become more unbelievable with each passing day, if the weather does settle down it may only be for isolated days like today with any ridging quickly flattened off by the Atlantic. The current unsettled and cool pattern looks like persisting into the middle of August. Turns very unsettled to start the working week next week, then maybe a few less rainy days following before we go into another very unsettled spell for the following weekend. Temperatures look low over the first 10 days of August with temperatures no better than low to mid teens on wet days and mid to maybe high teens on the dryer days if the sun actually comes out.
If you want warm and settled weather this August the best place to find it is by booking a flight to the Mediterranean because you won't find it in this part of Europe any time soon.
The GFS 12z is slightly more settled than recent GFS charts but for every GFS run that tries to settle things down even for a day or 2, it is quickly followed by several GFS run showing nothing but dartboard lows and chilly north-westerlies.
Not as overly wet as July on this particular run but there will still be rain or showers most days.
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Cold spell next week is looking fairly significant at this stage for early August where temperatures of 1 to 4c below average can be expected, this coupled with lots of cloud and rain could make things feel very autumnal, more like mid to late October rather than the 1st week in August. However if we can get some sunshine then it shouldn't feel too bad as the sun is still strong enough to make these chilly upper air temperatures less noticeable, but get under a band of rain and cloud and you will feel the chill.
Monday looks like the only day that will be average in terms of temperatures with all other days below average. The first 10 days or so of August are looking particularly chilly so we certainly won't be chasing any warm temperature records.
Not as overly wet as July on this particular run but most places should still see showers or rain most it not every day.
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ECM has been showing a deepening Lp system developing fairly rapidly along a fast powerful Jet with a fairly steep temperature gradient around next weekend ( Saturday into Sunday atm ) for a few runs now over the last couple of days. A kind of system and set up you would more likely see late Autumn or Winter. Possibly quite wet also. Hasn't deviated too much with track. Tonight's run showing a system deepen close to and moving over Ireland with strong winds.
GEM and GFS also showing a Lp system but not as strong as the ECM.
Something to keep an eye on. Might move harmlessly to our North or perhaps we could experience something unseasonably strong.
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