Ante post football bets 2023/24

jacool

I can't believe I am starting this in May, but May it is and here we go.

Premier League 2023/24 winner - 12Aug2023 is a massive 7 days away!

Manchester City - 8/15, Arsenal - 9/1, Liverpool - 9/1, Manchester United - 12/1, Newcastle - 12/1, Chelsea - 16/1, Tottenham - 40/1, Brighton - 66/1.

Top 4 finish: Man City - 1/20, Arsenal - 5/6, Liverpool - 5/6, Man Utd - 11/10, Newcastle - 6/5, Chelsea - 11/8, Tottenham - 9/4, Brighton - 11/4, Aston Villa - 8/1

The Sporting Life wrote a big article about xP "the calculation of the number of points a team expect to collect based on chances created and conceded in each game"

Based on this, they say a big "NO" to Arsenal (overperformed xP by 13.6), Manchester United (12.7) and Fulham (11.0). They would say that both the Gunners and Red Devils might struggle to get CL football next season with improvements expected from Chelsea, Liverpool, and yet again, Newcastle. They tip Fulham to go down.

Premier League relegation odds

Luton Town - 2/5, Sheffield United - 10/11, Bournemouth - 2/1, Burnley - 9/4, Nottingham Forest - 5/2, Everton - 10/3, Fulham - 10/3, Brentford - 9/2, Wolves 5/1.

Only one team fits the "reverse xP" argument, West Ham United, and at 5/6, they reckon they are well priced for a top half finish.

Sky Bet Championship 23/24 winner

Leicester - 5/1, Leeds - 11/2, Middlesbrough - 10/1, Southampton - 10/1, Ipswich - 14/1, Norwich - 14/1, Watford - 14/1, West Brom - 14/1.

Promotion: Leicester - 13/8, Leeds - 7/4. Too small for both those clubs if you ask me.

Sky Bet League One 23/24 winner

Derby - 5/1, Bolton - 8/1, Peterborough - 8/1, Reading - 10/1, Portmouth - 11/1, Barnsley - 11/1, Charlton - 18/1, Blackpool - 20/1.

Sky Bet League Two 23/24 winner

Wrexham - 7/2, Stockport - 6/1, Notts County - 8/1, Gillingham - 10/1, Bradford - 12/1, MK Dons - 14/1, Salford - 16/1, Mansfield - 18/1

Promotion: Wrexham - 10/11, Stockport - 11/8, Notts County - 13/8, Gillingham - 2/1, Bradford - 9/4, MK Dons - 5/2, Salford - 3/1, Mansfield - 10/3

The lowly Gills are priced right up near the two promoted sides simply because after the financial investment in January, they picked up 40 from 69 available points. Last season, the world , her mother, and 75% of the Racing post tipsters went for Mansfield, backing them into 11/1 after the big bets earlier had made Stockport 6/1 favs.

Lionel Fusco

I fancy Wolves and Bournemouth to go down myself. I'm trying to find a price for Cardiff to be relegated from the championship as they appear to be a club in disarray at the moment.

rekluse

Your in early jacool , I like it 😀 I've been 5/7 the last two years on ante post bets, third times a charm as they say ! I'll be waiting till July before any bets but will be keeping an eye on this thread through the summer.

rekluse

Can't belive wrexham straight in as favs for league 2 after just getting promotion !

jacool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120660928#Comment_120660928

Bet365 have priced it up and its 4/1. You can see that a few people are nibbling at it already - about 1 in 6 bets are on Cardiff!

Lionel Fusco

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120662766#Comment_120662766

Good man I'll be having a few pound on now while 4s is still available

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120662713#Comment_120662713

They have a massive budget. They came up with (what I presume was) a record points haul. Most of the players that they have bought are at the required level - they were either playing in League 1 or were top performers in League 2 (e.g Mullin). No doubt they will be beefing up their squad again this summer and basically have all of the momentum behind them.

rekluse

I'm not saying they wont win it, but To be honest i don't watch enough national league / league 2 discern how much of a difference how much difference there is between the two leagues. It just seens strange that a team from NL is straight favs for league 2. Tbh it's probably a good thing for me as I usually back a team for top 7 so it will push the likes of Stockport/ Salford price out.

jacool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120663486#Comment_120663486

The gap must not be much, because last year's champions were Stockport, and they were heavily backed to go up, eventually losing in the play-off final. The bookies have baked in both the funds at Wrexham, plus their huge profile, as people who know nothing about football, but watch a lot of Netflix, will back them, and have gone short as a result. People not in the know will back them at any price, blissfully unaware that they might not necessarily be getting any value.

This shows how many people are "on" already. Only the mighty Gills have been backed more, to maintain their 2023 form across a new season.

Loafing Oaf

This is out tomorrow, for anyone looking for 'expert' guidance

https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/the-big-kick-off/dont-miss-the-big-kick-off-the-ultimate-football-betting-guide-aTRdZ3r7XokG/

jacool

Got this today, will put in bits here tomorrow.

Brutal PL summary.

Usual suspects win from either Arsenal or Liverpool.

Everton relegated, Luton bottom.

rekluse

My dart for the season after reading the RP preview and doing a bit of deep dive onto some fan forums. Man United top 6, Leicester top 6, Bolton top 6, Stockport top 7, Chesterfield top 7, Aberdeen top 6, Ac Milan top 4, Rennes top 6, RB Leipzeig top 4, Atletico top 4. 75£ staked for £2460 back. Good luck all.

jacool

The BIG KICK-OFF: EPL

1. Man City       7         Liverpool       1
2. Arsenal          4         Liverpool       3         Man City       1
3. Arsenal          4         Liverpool       2         Man Utd        2
4. Man Utd        6         Liverpool       1         Newcastle    1

Golden Boot (w/o Haaland)            Kane  2, Son 2, Watkins, Saka, Darwin Nunez. Tipped @11/1 Rashford, @12/1 Jesus

Sack Race            Iraola             3         Cooper         2         Lopetegui     1           Tipped @16/1 Iraola

Luton goals               24       25       30       25       25       20+

 Best bet per club, clubs in order of predicted finish!

MC     PL&CL double                                  

LIV      w/o MC 3/1

ARS    Top London Club

MU     >CHE

NEW   GB: Wilson e.w.

CHE    Kepa Golden Glove

TOT     outside Top 6

AST     >BRI

BRI      Top scorer: @4/1 Ferguson

CRY    >WHU

BRE     >FUL

BUR    Top scorer: @4/1 Benson

BOU   >41.5 points

WHU   <BRE

FUL     >EVE

NF Awoniyi 15+ goals

WOL   >BOU

EVE    Relegated 3/1

SU       <33.5 points

LUT      bottom @6/4

 

Assists             9/1 TAA 25/1 Maddison

BRE>EVE        5/6

Ferguson (BRI) 16+ goals 11/4

Grealish outscore Bowen @7/4

jacool

Next 3 leagues. Be nice to pull a treble from the top scorers! Be warned, chronic market. Winners in CHA and L1 for 22/23, weren't in the betting at all last year!

jacool

Lucky 15 for winners across the 4 leagues

The consensus is therefore, Man City, Leicester, Bolton, Stockport. 420/1 or thereabouts :)

rekluse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120935251#Comment_120935251

Cheers jacool for posting these, very quiet in here considering the footy is back tomorrow? Anyways I've gone for the above but thew in Chesterfield for about an 850/1 acca with the spare 3 quid in my powers account.

Loafing Oaf

First tranche

Going with Ellis Simms @ 20/1 and Jerry Yates @ 25/1 for championship top goalscorer

Also a whole clatter of request-a-bets:

Liverpool to finish in top 4, Leicester to be promoted, Bolton to finish in top 6 & Notts County and Stockport to finish in top 7 @ 12/1

Norwich to be promoted, Ipswich to finish in top 6 & Sunderland to finish in top half @ 20/1

Leeds to be promoted, Middlesbrough to finish in top 6 & Swansea to finish in top half @ 17/2

Ipswich to be promoted, Norwich to finish in top 6 & Millwall to finish in top half @ 20/1

Coventry to finish in top 6 & QPR and Sheffield Wednesday to be relegated @ 50/1

Leicester to win the league & Huddersfield and Rotherham to be relegated @ 40/

and a couple of accas:

Stoke @ 8/11 Top Half Finish/Wrexham @ 1/1 Top 3 Finish/Motherwell @ 11/8 Top 6 Finish/Arsenal @ 9/4 Finish Outside Top 4

Derby @ 4/9 Top 6 Finish/Southampton @ 10/11 Top 6 Finish/ Bayern Munich @ 2/7 German Bundesliga Winner/ Hibernian @ 4/11 Top 6 Finish/

Manchester City/Erling Haaland @ 11/10 Winner/Top Goalscorer

Collie D

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120935251#Comment_120935251

Went with this. Each way accum and win trebles.

Lionel Fusco

Sheffield United to finish bottom at 11/4 and Bournemouth to finish in the top half at 15/2 are 2 I've landed on.

famagusta

Another season upon us.. i came close to landing the big accum last season, we go again!

I played it safe this year with the main bet, ii wonder which will let me down!

Main bet €500 to win €8000

AC Milan Top 4 Seria A 8/13

Aston Villa to beat Wolves Season Long match bet 1/4

Swansea to beat Cardiff in season long match bet 1/2

Hibs Top 6 SPL 1/3

Aberdeen Top 6 SPL 1/5

Bolton Top 6 8/11

Stockport Top 7 4/9

RB Leipzeig Top 4 1/3

Also, 250 ew Ollie Watkins top scorer WITHOUT Haaland 16/1, i really like this bet

Ollie Watkins w/o Haaland and Conor Chaplin Top scorer EW double

Loafing Oaf

second, premiership-centric tranche

Golden Glove: Onana, Pope, Kepa

Sack Race: Iraola, Silva, Howe

PFA POTY: Stones, Rice

Request-a-bets:

Chelsea and Portsmouth to finish in top 6, Bradford to finish in top 7 & Nunez to score 15+ league goals @10

Middlesbrough and Barnsley to be promoted & Sheffield Utd to be relegated @ 18/1

Rashford, Son and Watkins each to score 15+ league goals & Fernandes, Foden and Saka each to score 10+ league goals @ 15/2

and, departing the reservation, Martinelli to score 15+ league goals, Havertz to score 2+ headed league goals, Rice to score 3+ league goals from outside the penalty area & Alexander-Arnold to assist 15+ league goals @ 66/1

top club goaloscorer accas: Ferguson/Awoniyi/Salah/Solanke and Richarlison/Benson/Hojlund

plus the obligatory trans-European accas:

Coventry @ 8/11 Top Half Finish/Bayer Leverkusen @ 5/4 Top 4 Finish/Arsenal @ 6/4 Premier League Winner Without Man City 23/24/

Atlético Madrid @ 5/6 La Liga Without Barcelona & Real Madrid 

RB Leipzig @ 2/7 Top 4 Finish/ Marseille @ 1/2 Top 4 Finish/ Luton Town @ 9/4 Team To Score Least Goals/ Robert Lewandowski @ 8/15 Spanish La Liga Top Goalscorer/ Milan @ 8/11 Top 4 Finish

famagusta

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120956681#Comment_120956681

i have added Dominic Solanke Top scorer without the big norwegian, 100/1 ew first 4

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120966974#Comment_120966974

Golden Glove: Kepa

Off to a flying start. In hindsight kind of figures he was 20/1...

Loafing Oaf

Few Champions League fluttters for the week that's in it

Bayern to win all group games @ 8/1

Top scorer: Griezman (e/w) @ 80/1 & Lautaro Martinez @ 66/1

Haaland, Kane, Lewandowski and Mbappe each to score 5+ UCL Group Stage goals @ 20/1

And two group stage accas:

Real Madrid @ 4/7 Group Winner/Inter @ 10/11 Group Winner/Manchester City @ 1/7 Group Winner/Barcelona @ 2/5 Group Winner/Sevilla @ 1/1

To Qualify From Group/Milan @ 5/4 To Qualify From Group: 20.6/1

Arsenal @ 4/7 Group Winner/Napoli @ 4/9 To Qualify From Group/Atlético Madrid @ 4/6 Group Winner/Paris St Germain @ 2/5 To Qualify From Group/

RB Leipzig @ 2/9 To Qualify From Group/Porto @ 2/7 To Qualify From Group/Manchester Utd @ 1/3 To Qualify From Group/Benfica @ 4/7 To Qualify From Group: 16.44/1

famagusta

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120981788#Comment_120981788

I seem to love this market for some reason and have now added HM Son,. Spurs are flying and he seems to be the main man now. more central position the last three games and on 7 goals already. the each way bet seems a certainty. Salah is fav but he has the african cup of nations in 2024....

jacool

Good luck with the Ollie Watkins bet - can you imagine if he had been on spotters!

Erling Haaland               9

Mohamed Salah            7

Son Heung-min             7

Jarrod Bowen                6

Alexander Isak              6

Ollie Watkins                 5

Hwang Hee-chan           5

Bryan Mbeumo              5

Callum Wilson               5

Douglas Luiz                 5

famagusta

Ya, pity he's not. Son and Watkins will give it a good go anyway. Son was 5s on monday, he's 4/1 now. i still think this is a savage bet

Loafing Oaf

Stuck a tenner on Hughton @16/1 for the ireland job yesterday morning. He's now in to 7/1 so fingers crossed. Some commentators are saying it's between him and Carsley for the gig but Keane & lennon are well shorter than Hughton with all the bookies...

mailburner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121420531#Comment_121420531

still 12s with 365

can't believe keane is almost favourite

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121420674#Comment_121420674

And Neil Warnock is only just outside Hughton with Sky Bet, which is even more disturbing

mailburner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121422566#Comment_121422566

The tipsters on paddy power picked Rafa Benitez at 33s

I mean he's not even in some lists

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121130833#Comment_121130833

Never had any luck with these CL group stage accas, don't know why I keep throwing money away on them. The groups look so predictable before they start though, all the pundits are predicting either the same winner or the same rwo to qualify from most of them.

Bayern the biggest letdown though, who'd have thought they'd fall at the home to Copenhahen hurdle?

rekluse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120931252#Comment_120931252

This looks dead in the water coming into 24' which is annoying as ive have had a big antepost bet so fecked at christmas before. United and Rennes been in rotten form and not really optimistic for any recovery in 24, so this looks dead in the water. Amazingly, Still have some outrights going ok - Stockport/Bolton/ Leicester o/r , the aforementioned with Chesterfield /City o/r , and a couple of accas going with city Leicester Wrexham o/r. Anyone else got anything good going into 24?

famagusta

My Solanke 100/1 top goalscorer without Haaland is flying, the rest are middling!

jacool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121592301#Comment_121592301

I'm not so sure

Man United top 6,   7th -2 points

Leicester top 6,        1st 25 point adv

Bolton top 6,           3rd 5 point adv

Stockport top 7,       1st 12 point adv

Chesterfield top 7,   1st 15 point adv

Aberdeen top 6,       8th -3 points

AC Milan top 4,        3rd 9 point adv

Rennes top 6,          10th -7 points

RB Leipzig top 4,     4th 3 point adv

Atletico top 4.          5th -3 points

As a 32/1 shot you need Aberdeen to improve and maybe Bilbao to falter. Rennes just beat second place Nice, so you would expect them to improve. In the Premier League, if Villa keep going that's 5 places gone and you would be looking over your shoulder at a resurgent Chelsea to scupper Man Utd. If it was my bet, the strugglers would all recover and Bolton would lose their last 3 games, but that's just me!

rekluse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121617813#Comment_121617813

I wish I had your optimism!

Loafing Oaf

Added another couple of accas recently as cover for the legs that are going sour in my pre-season ones

Bayer Leverkusen German Bundesliga Winner/Hibernian Scottish Premiership Bottom 6 Finish/Burnley Premier League Relegation/Girona Spanish La Liga Without Barcelona & Real Madrid

Hull Sky Bet Championship Top 6 Finish/Liverpool Premier League Winner/Jude Bellingham Spanish La Liga Top Goalscorer

First one is actually looking good as Bayern and Atletico Madrid are not picking up as anticipated in their respective leagues...

famagusta

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121666134#Comment_121666134

what prices were the selections in the first acca??

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121675391#Comment_121675391

respectively 2/1, 4/5, 2/9, 4/6,

Leverkusen currently 10/11, neck & neck with Bayern

rekluse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121617813#Comment_121617813

You were right jacool should have had your faith! United 4 wins on the bounce and Rennes unbeaten in 9. Right back in the mix with this one could do with Aberdeen picking up a bit.

jacool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121788044#Comment_121788044

                   15-Jan-2024                20-Feb-2024

Man United top 6,   7th -2 points                    6th, 6 point adv

Leicester top 6,       1st 25 point adv              1st 27 point adv

Bolton top 6,          3rd 5 point adv                3rd 10 point adv

Stockport top 7,      1st 12 point adv              1st 14 point adv

Chesterfield top 7,  1st 15 point adv             1st 30 point adv

Aberdeen top 6,      8th -3 points                  8th -5 points need Warnock magic to kick in

AC Milan top 4,       3rd 9 point adv              3rd 7 point adv

Rennes top 6,         10th -7 points                  7th -2 points

RB Leipzig top 4,    4th 3 point adv                5th -1 point

Atletico top 4.          5th -3 points                   4th 2 points adv

Still game on. Good news is that 50% loo home and hosed. You might be sweating on the final weekend!

Loafing Oaf

And the League 1 teams appearing in my accas would be none other than Portsmouth, Derby, Bolton & Batnsley. If only my tough was so sure with other leagues...

Have also had a punt on Inter to be losing CL finalists again

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121666134#Comment_121666134

Bayer Leverkusen German Bundesliga Winner/Hibernian Scottish Premiership Bottom 6 Finish/Burnley Premier League Relegation/Girona Spanish La Liga Without Barcelona & Real Madrid

Was sweating on Hibs yesterday, needed a very late equaliser for Motherwell to see them home. Deal not quite sealed as Girona have started to falter in the home straight. Even if Atletico do pip them though, this one comes back into play

Coventry @ 8/11 Top Half Finish/Bayer Leverkusen @ 5/4 Top 4 Finish/Arsenal @ 6/4 Premier League Winner Without Man City 23/24/Atlético Madrid @ 5/6 La Liga Without Barcelona & Real Madrid 

Also retain hopes for

Leicester to win the league & Huddersfield and Rotherham to be relegated @ 40/1

Norwich to be promoted, Ipswich to finish in top 6 & Sunderland to finish in top half @ 20/1

PFA POTY Rice

Griezman CL top scorer (e/w) @ 80/1

and at a stretch

Ipswich to be promoted, Norwich to finish in top 6 & Millwall to finish in top half @ 20/1

Hull Sky Bet Championship Top 6 Finish/Liverpool Premier League Winner/Jude Bellingham Spanish La Liga Top Goalscorer

Chelsea and Portsmouth to finish in top 6, Bradford to finish in top 7 & Nunez to score 15+ league goals @10

Golden Gloves: Onana

jacool

Was following up on a bet for a buddy, and went back to the RP.

Mark Langdon went for these 4 at 3400/1, the three league clubs at 2000/1 and promotion for Ipswich, Portsmouth and Stockport at 60/1. He got 50% of his big bet up last night, and I'm convinced Man City are over the line, so I would say he'll have some sweat on the Championship for the next few weeks! His only disaster would be for the Tractor Boys to slip into the play-offs and lose to a resurgent Southampton or the likes.

I see @Collie D did an e.w. acca on Man City, Leicester, Bolton, Stockport. That must be nearly in now (place part)?

Collie D

Small enough money on the ew acca and Bolton can still mess up the place part of it. Also did trebles from the four so Leicester the nervy one there.

At one point around Jan/early Feb the fourfold was just under 10/1 best price and then the wheels came off for Leicester and Bolton. But a nice season long interest and still a chance of a healthy profit.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122017660#Comment_122017660

So this

Leicester to win the league & Huddersfield and Rotherham to be relegated @ 40/1

is virtually home

and this

Bayer Leverkusen German Bundesliga Winner/Hibernian Scottish Premiership Bottom 6 Finish/Burnley Premier League Relegation/Girona Spanish La Liga Without Barcelona & Real Madrid

is nearly there barring an incredible Burnley revival

Only other ones with any sort of pulse are

PFA POTY Rice

Griezman CL top scorer (e/w) @ 80/1

As sort of cover for these two have added

Manchester City @ 2/5 Premier League Winner 23/24/Real Madrid @ 6/4 Champions League Winner 23/24/Southampton @ 13/8 Sky Bet Championship Promotion 23/24

famagusta

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122081304#Comment_122081304

Great stuff, well done!

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122084444#Comment_122084444

A case of throwing enough muck at a wall I'm afraid. Unless one of them other bets somes through I reckon I'm down about €100 overall…