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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion - Summer 2023
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That strike on its own at the moment but the models are showing some of the parameters for thunderstorms tonight and early morning coming in from the W and moving across to the E ( best area of shear and lapse rates as a tongue of high Theta W airmass crosses the country ) . But like yesterday ( although better profiles tonight ) there might be just too much mixing and cap inhibiting much growth of convection but we will see. So far from what I can make out a lot less rain has fallen than forecast so far but convection is growing off the W and the heaviest rain to come overnight mainly over the Northern half of the country. No yellow warnings but probably meeting the criteria for rainfall in the areas highlighted in the rainfall accumulation charts below.
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So far little rain from the cold front set to move up over the country, a trough moved up out in front of it also but weak. Temperatures set to be a bit higher in the top two thirds of the country under clearer skies ( although some bright spells here near Tralee helping temps get over 21C now ) so convection looks set to mature across the top third of the country later with shear more evident giving better lapse rates. Some thunderstorms possible more so in NW, N and NE counties later tonight into early Fri morning but might not amount to much.
Met office have a yellow warning for rainfall later in Northen counties.
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ECM showing potential for some hefty thunderstorms later tonight in Northern counties especially Antrim and Down as it meets wind convergence and plenty of DLS above it too. Louth might get clipped by a storm too perhaps. Rainfall seems to have pepped up some bit on the radar. Will see what transpires.
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Amazing multi video captures of a violent storm that went through La Chaux-De-Fonds, Switzerland on 24-7-23 causing widespread damage and unfortunately one death and several injured. Some debate if there was tornadic activity but many along with the met service saying it was a Microburst https://www.weather.gov/bmx/outreach_microbursts which would give multidirectional winds and severe downdraught winds and in this case recorded at 217 km/h ( 134mph ) yet awaiting official verification.....could be a new windspeed record.
There was a very accurate forecast issued by ESTOFEX that day and also from Swiss Met
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Watching Fri to see what happens as the large are of LP gets closer to us, possibly spawning waves and producing smaller areas of LP aided by the Jet and sending in bands of possibly heavy rain. Early look at the charts showing high Theta W and High Theta E , lots of shear both low and Deep, possibly plenty of instability with high levels of vorticity .Will see as the week goes on what are the chances of embedded convection and thunderstorms.
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Been a hard one to follow or give any reasonably confident thoughts on it during the week for me but shaping up now to be quite a dynamic system featuring a small compact LP system developing off the main system and moving up over Ireland all derived from warm moisture laden airmass sourced in the tropics, high with Theta E and high Theta W readings, Dp's into the mid teens, the combination of strong Low level shear and deep level shear for a change with decent lapse rates,( tornadic activity possible ) frontal forcing perhaps producing some thunderstorm activity, potentially active moving into the south tomorrow early evening and moving up the country and could be still firing away in a few places into early sat morning. Very hard to predict where might get thunderstorms when the Lp moves up over the country, Thunderstorms could form wrapped around the system in the frontal areas ??
So a watch in place to see what develops off the S and SE coasts initially ( cork to Waterford ) late afternoon early evening and to see if it travels inland and maybe a few independent storms also ?
Some huge pwat readings of 34 to 38mm, would give very heavy flooding rain under the storms if they develop.
Heavy squally showers.
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Yeah a showery trough crossing the country from the NW to SE kind of direction during peak diurnal heating with associated cold pool aloft giving fairly decent lapse rates, land and air ahead of the trough should be heating nicely, perhaps getting up to high teens or 20C in the SE, not huge shear available so perhaps more pulse type thunderstorms. Decent levels of sunshine aiding lift. The trough coming up against nice convergence along the S, SE, E in the afternoon. Could fire up crossing the midlands, the S could see some activity and increase in the E and SE in that afternoon/ late afternoon. Thinking the SE and E could see the most activity especially along coastal areas late in the afternoon.
Post edited by Meteorite58 on3 -
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