A longer term outlook - a post to return to in 10 years time

marno21

I have long advocated for a more holistic approach to roads capital investment in this country, as many have seen regularly on this form. Not since Transport 21 has there been a reasonable long term approach (and even Transport 21 was vague in relation to roads investment, it mentioned the length of roads to be done (aside from the MIUs and the Atlantic Corridor) but nothing specific - schemes seemed to mainly included for local political reasons). During the Transport 21 years, especially the latter ones, we had so many projects in various stages of planning that it was a question of "what's not in planning?".

In 2015 we got an investment plan (Building on Recovery) that planned investment in 13 projects. These projects were mainly projects that had been kept on life support during the Troika years (mainly due to the presence of Ministers in the relevant constituencies), and the rest were for safety reasons (Slane and N4 in Sligo) or EU requirements (M21/M28). (As of today, the 8 projects in this plan to be constructed are all either complete or under construction, while only 1 of the 5 projects to obtain planning over the lifetime of the plan has received full planning permission).

The outlook changed dramatically from 2015 to 2018. No less than 45 projects were included in the 2018 National Development Plan, a complete sea change in investment outlook. These were divided into two categories, one group which were to be fully funded to construction by 2027, and a second group which were to be brought through the planning process in this time, but no commitment would be made to construction (a 'pipeline' for future consideration).

Of the 23 projects listed to be complete in this timeframe

• 7 are complete (N4 Collooney-Castlebaldwin, N5 Westport-Turlough, M7 Naas bypass widening, M11 Gorey-Enniscorthy, N11 Kilmacanogue Phase 1, N25 New Ross bypass, N56 Mountcharles-Inver)

• 4 are partially open, being delivered in phases (N56 Dungloe-Glenties, N59 Oughteard-Maam Cross, N59 Westport-Mulranny, N86 Tralee-Dingle)

• 1 is shortly to commence construction (N5 Ballaghaderreen-Scramoge)

• 1 is at advance works (M28)

• 4 are under construction (Dunkettle, N22 Macroom, N59 Moycullen, N69 Listowel) 

• 3 are planning approved, but subject to judicial review (M6 Galway, M21 Adare-Foynes, N52 Ardee bypass)

• 3 are in the planning progress (N2 Slane, M20, N72 Mallow)

Of the 22 projects in the planning process, all 22 have yet to be submitted to An Bord Pleanala. It appears 6 will be in a position to be submitted to An Bord Pleanala within the next 12 months (M11 Oilgate-Rosslare, N13/N15 Ballybofey, N13/N56 Letterkenny upgrades, N14 Letterkenny-Lifford, N21 Abbeyfeale, N21 Newcastlewest).

As has been mentioned regularly by TII and by posters on the forum, the current level of roads funding is not sufficient to support the development of 38 projects, especially in the environment we're in in 2023 with inflation added into the mix. 

It would appear from reading between the lines that there is going to be a significant prioritisation exercise for the next number of years, with focus going to be placed on a reduced number of projects to get them actually completed. This is a sensible proposal, given the number of projects advancing to construction that are quite large and costly and aiming for actual delivery rather than spreading money too thin. Based on this, I would surmise that the following project list will be aimed for delivery between now and 2030, from current TII priorities and Ministerial priorities, we should see the following under construction between now and 2030.

N3 Virginia bypass

N4 Carrick on Shannon-Dromod

N5 Ballaghaderreen-Scramoge

M6 Galway City Ring Road

M11 Oilgate-Rosslare Harbour

N13/N15 Ballybofey/Stranorlar bypass

N13/N56 Letterkenny relief road + DC upgrade

N14 Letterkenny-Lifford + A5 Link

M20 Cork-Limerick

M21 Limerick-Adare-Foynes (possibly phased)

N21 Abbeyfeale bypass

N21 Newcastlewest bypass

N24 Cahir-Limerick Junction (potentially only the section bypassing Tipperary Town)

M28 Cork-Ringaskiddy

N52 Ardee bypass

This would see the bulk of all remaining motorway in Ireland to be built (with the exception of the Cork North Ring Road, and possibly stretches on the N22 and N25 approaches to Cork). It would see bypasses built of Carrick-on-Shannon, Virginia, Strokestown, Galway City, Ballybofey, Stranorlar, Letterkenny, Charleville, Buttevant, Mallow, Adare, Abbeyfeale, Newcastlewest, Tipperary Town, Ardee and potentially Bansha along with a host of small villages.

The status of the Slane and Mallow bypasses is unclear, but I suspect the Mallow bypass may be bundled with the M20 project.

IMO, if the above could be delivered in the next 10 years, along with completion of the LVNS projects on the N56, N59 and N86 above, along with a host of smaller projects, it would be a successful decade.

The following NDP projects could then be examined after the above are completed:

• Widening/upgrades of the N2, N3, M4 and N11 approaches to Dublin

• N2 Ardee-Castleblayne

• N2 Clontibret-NI border

• N4 Mullingar-Longford

• N17 Knock-Collooney

• N22 Farranfore-Killarney

• N24 Waterford-Cahir

• N25 Midleton-Youghal

• N25 Waterford-Glenmore

• N25 Carrigtwohill-Midleton

• N52 Tullamore-Kilbeggan

To conclude, whilst there will be political backlash at "defunding" or "cancelling" or "mothballing" projects, especially with a Minister who's a lightning rod for such criticism and never misses an opportunity to dig a deeper hole for himself, getting the 15 projects above underway in the next 10 years would be a significant win for the Irish roads network. It would see the motorway network effectively complete, many of the country's most notorious bottlenecks bypasses and several blatant gaps in the network bridged. There will be strategic routes left unupgraded but they could be addressed in the 2030s or perhaps a new round of PPPs could be launched for the big ticket schemes remaining and fund them separate to the roads capital budget. The biggest issue was launching a plan that included 45 roads schemes totalling near on 1000km in length without a nuanced plan on how they would delivered, that 2 years into a plan met a once in a lifetime pandemic and a return to war on the European continent. 

hans aus dtschl

M6 Galway City Ring Road - I do not see this being under construction by 2030, realistically?

marno21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120685755#Comment_120685755

It's current TII, Dept of Transport and Government policy to have it u/c by 2030 so I put it down as such.

From TII:

Allocate sufficient funding to acquire land and progress advance works contracts for the N6 Galway Ring Road (planning consent remitted by the High Court back to An Bord Pleanála). Commencement of main works construction, subject to approvals by Government, expected to commence in the 2026-2030 period of the NDP.

roadmaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058299683/a-longer-term-outlook-a-post-to-return-to-in-10-years-time

I would be very suprised to see 3/4 of them projects get the go ahead. We seam to have a real blockage in the system. The only way i could see them get started is if heather humprys became minister for transport

kippy

The Galway city ring road won't happen in the next two decades, let alone one unfortunately.

hans aus dtschl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120688972#Comment_120688972

Galway Ring Road failed because ABP and the Galway City Council submitted and approved a plan that should never have been submitted or approved because it didn't pass the basic criteria. You're blaming Eamon Ryan for other people's incompetence. Galway Ring Road, as was previously designed (simultaneously "development facilitator" and "bypass") hasn't a hope of happening.

Jayuu

Can we not let this thread end-up as a secondary M6 Galway Bypass thread. Let's just say that as marno has pointed out that at the moment it's still official policy to get this underway by 2030 but there are significant legal and logistical problems with it and leave it at that.

To be honest I think looking at the bigger picture this would be a very amibitious programme of works to have underway by 2030. While I hate to bring politics into it I think a lot of it depends on the results of the next GE in 2025. Less to do with ER and the Greens directly and more to do with the priorities of any new government that would be in place in the 2025-2030 period.