World's hottest day since records began

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120856314#Comment_120856314

Would you be willing to accept that the natural components are pointing to a downwards trend in temperature ?

Is that a position that you would see in the people you describe as as sceptical about man made climate change ?

If you could never see yourself answering yes to this then it should tell you everything you need to know about their intellectual integrity.

Thelonious Monk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120856310#Comment_120856310

Since when do I despise farmers? Don't grow oats no, plenty of other stuff though.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120856327#Comment_120856327

So are you saying all the possible natural components such as milankovich cycles, sunspots etc aren’t in any way- in even a small %, contributing to climate change?

Imo humans have enjoyed a stable environment and temperature for 1000’s of years (the Holocene epoch).

These periods don’t last forever and naturally change.

Human activity has sped up this process by releasing CO2 into the atmosphere to insulate the earths stratosphere causing warming which is speeding up natural change.

Therefore this climate change is not 100% man made.

Humans will adapt or become extinct but we won’t be able to stop it- to think otherwise is downright arrogant.

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120856484#Comment_120856484

The natural components are not a mystery. For the first half of the 20th century the natural solar forcing was negative meaning that they reduced the man made CO2 forcing making anthropogenic forcing seem weaker than it was.

I am entirely willing to accept the natural components - but they do not support a sceptical position on anthropogenic climate change. The first thing climate scientists did when studying the climate was to isolate the natural components and model them - this was exactly the means by which they identified the man made component. So in answer to your question - natural climate forcing is entirely within my understanding of the climate - it just doesn't point to the climate we have.

monseiur

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120854904#Comment_120854904

I concur with this statement. Greta Thunberg is a prime example. Teenagers and the younger generation in general hang on her every word. They follow her like sheep and woe betide anyone who question her often delusive utterances. I don't like picking on her as she has serious mental health issues (autism, Asperger syndrome etc.) But she has a following, she's a prophet of doom and misery and looks the part. Her ''preaching's'' is having adverse effects on some of her 'disciples'. Some are having serious mental health issue, depression, using drugs etc, dropping out of school / college believing that the there is no future for them, that life on earth is doomed, that the end is nigh. How many young people around the world have already committed suicide or will in the future thanks to her 'prophecies' ??

Parents, especially, should be aware & educate their teenagers, young adults and make them aware of the hidden dangers of cults like Greta has created and guide them to question everything, and do their own independent research and stay open minded. Today's teenagers are tomorrow's adults, they should be encouraged to be full of hope, dreams and aspirations for the future. Prophets of doom should be encouraged to commit hari-kari, just because they are miserable and have no future this does not give them the right to preach their misery and try to drag normal independent thinking folk down with them.

GNWoodd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120854791#Comment_120854791

There was talks of culling an extra 200,000 head right here in the rain soaked temperate grasslands of Western Europe .They will rapidly be replaced in newly deforested parts of Mato Grosso Du Sol . Climate control centre for the world. Produce from them will then be imported back into Europe.

Makes perfect sense .

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120856536#Comment_120856536

Your just dripping with concern aren't you 😊

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120856531#Comment_120856531

Right so take a scenario where humans aren’t on the planet or are carbon neutral- would the planet be cooling or warming naturally at the moment? Or would it be stable?

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120856618#Comment_120856618

The trend was downwards since the last ice age, so I would say cooling.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120856627#Comment_120856627

Have you anything to back that up bar your opinion? Such as a peer reviewed article?

Also how would it be downwards from an ice age? That makes no sense the planet would already be cold hence an ice age!

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120856649#Comment_120856649

There was a considerable post glacial spike in temps - with a short return to low temps before another spike. The data clearly shows a downward trend for the next 8 thousand years or so (small variations smoothed) which if projected into the future would cause another ice age about 8 - 12 thousand years from now. The trend sharply reverses about 200 years ago.

The first neolithic farmers who settled in Ireland were predominantly arable farmers who came from the Mediteranian/middle east. Their style of farming became unsustainable after a few thousand years as the climate cooled and they were replaced by pastoralists better suited to the wetter cooler climate.

Thelonious Monk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120856562#Comment_120856562

Makes about as much sense as importing animal feed from South America as we don't produce enough food for them here in Ireland

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120856675#Comment_120856675

Of course there could be warm spikes within a general cooling over thousands of yrs. Perhaps some of the current warming could be natural. For example the little ice age ended around 1850 ,which would suggest some natural warming since then. Though I do think most of the warming since is down to humans. The little ice age and the medieval warm period before it would fall within the natural variation of the climate. I think what's happening now is outside that natural variation.

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120857024#Comment_120857024

There is plenty of evidence that both the medieval warm period and little ice age were both local to the North Atlantic.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120857215#Comment_120857215

No there isn't. Evidence the MWP was a global event have been found in lake sediments in Australia, Canada, the US and in the depths of the Pacific. It was a global event.

We show that water masses linked to North Pacific and Antarctic intermediate waters were warmer by 2.1 ± 0.4°C and 1.5 ± 0.4°C, respectively, during the middle Holocene Thermal Maximum than over the past century. Both water masses were ~0.9°C warmer during the Medieval Warm period than during the Little Ice Age and ~0.65° warmer than in recent decades.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1240837

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120857340#Comment_120857340

Interesting that you would use a paper which strongly supports the science of anthropogenic global warming to make your point.

Akrasia

This, bigger, more comprehensive and more recent, study in Nature says differently. It addresses the findings of the 2013 paper but still shows it to be regional, not global coherence

"No pre-industrial epoch shows global coherence in the timing of the coldest or warmest periods. There is, however, regional coherence. For example, there are almost continental-scale patterns during many of the periods and there is a coherent pattern in the tropical Pacific in the RWP, DACP and LIA periods, reminiscent of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the most dominant mode of inter-annual variability in the climate system.

In contrast to the spatial heterogeneity of the pre-industrial era, the highest probability for peak warming over the entire CE (Fig. 3c) is found in thel ate 20th century almost everywhere (98% of global surface area) except for Antarctica, where contemporary warming has not yet been observed over thee ntire continent22.

Thus even though the recent warming rates are not entirely homogeneous over the globe with isolated areas showing little warming or even cooling 22,23, the climate system is now in a state of global temperature coherence unprecedented over the Common Era

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1401-2

Full text here

https://boris.unibe.ch/132301/7/333323_4_merged_1557735881.pdf

Shoog

This was what Mann's work demonstrated years before. The mwp was local but with cooling elsewhere in the globe to balance it out. No overall global effect. This should not be surprising given the oscillatory nature of most climate patterns such as el nino la Nina.

tobesure

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120852431#Comment_120852431

And the thing you don't want to mention is, the final result.

What difference does speed make? Slowing it down doesn't stop record temperatures. Slowing it down doesn't stop people dying.

So why exactly do you want to slow it down? What are we going to do, find a reverse button that somehow cools the planet despite the heat and energy from the sun pumping down on is everyday adding heat.

tobesure

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120851261#Comment_120851261

If you want to act, then you should look at population. But eamon Ryan thinks reducing living standards and having us living in hardship to reduce emissions is the way.

At the same time he's fine with a massive population growth.

Humans consume. More humans, more consumption which is more emissions.

GNWoodd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120856802#Comment_120856802

We import a tiny fraction of the overall ruminant diet.Also we don’t grow much soya so it has to be imported .Most of the cattle / sheep diet in this country is of grown grass or preserved grass as it always has been . Irish farmers have a natural advantage in this regard.

I know that doesn’t fit with the current narrative where we are all being encouraged to consume less meat and dairy but if they are to be produced anywhere on the planet well then here it should be.

Thelonious Monk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120857587#Comment_120857587

yeah I just think it's a bit mad that people complain about importing meat from elsewhere while they have no problem with millions of tonnes of animal feed coming from the same place every year, and then exporting nearly all the meat produced here. if you're concerned with the amazon being chopped down for soy etc. would it not be better to try and become more self sufficient in food production?

same goes for all industries, nearly all our fruit and veg is imported, this wasn't always the case.

GNWoodd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120857649#Comment_120857649

. The millions of tonnes of animal feed that is imported is a tiny fraction of total animal diet particularly ruminant diet.Beef cattle for example , are only being fed concentrate for the last few weeks before slaughter. As a per cent age of what the animal consumes over its lifetime, imported grain is insignificant .

If the holy grail is to reduce ghg emissions across the planet, the emphasis should be on increasing meat and dairy production here where it is relatively sustainable and reducing it elsewhere.

I don’t know the reason behind fruit and veg being imported but I would hazard a guess that the cheap food policies of the last fifty years has made it uneconomic for all but the few large operators still doing it to remain in business. No medium sized farm is going to survive on vegetables produced for the multiples. Dairying could end up going in the same direction if the Green agenda has its way.

Shoog

Interesting term The Green Agenda. Sort of suggest the user of that term has their own agenda.

Thelonious Monk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120857936#Comment_120857936

The holy grail should be reducing meat and dairy consumption worldwide. Also if Irish beef and dairy is so amazing why do you all think it can be replaced in the EU so easily by Brazilian products? Surely the consumer knows better.

cdeb

The average consumer is a blithering moron in fairness. If it's cheaper or has a good jingle, they'll buy it. People eat McDonald's after all; doesn't mean it's any good

(I know McDonald's use a lot of Irish beef, but you see the point I'm trying to make)

GNWoodd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120858006#Comment_120858006

I never said it could be replaced easily by South American produce. My initial comment was on the idiocy of the Green ideology of wanting to cull 200k cows in the one of the best places in the world to have them. The displaced production will be taken up elsewhere in the world where it is less sustainable .

As for consumers knowing better ? You must be joking

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120858119#Comment_120858119

Ireland has a national crisis of water quality in all fresh water systems, a problem which has been getting worse ever since we abandoned deep litter. That is a sure sign that Ireland has more stock than it's carrying capacity. Successive government have caved to the farming lobby and the last two governments have actively made it worse through their Harvest policies.

This has not escaped the attention of the EU who have imposed a significant fine recently - a cost the general public will have to shoulder. The government are hiding behind the Greens to solve this festering sore once and for all so expect to see massive stocking reductions so that the FFG government can finally get the EU off their backs.

Politically this will be a very hard sell, but the Greens have been lined up to be the fall guy. However financially the government will see this as a big win.

GNWoodd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120858326#Comment_120858326

And the massive stocking reductions that you crave will reduce production . That production will then go elsewhere in the world where it is more than likely less sustainable.

As world population increases and living standards improve, much more meat and dairy , as cheap protein sources , will have to be found . This is never actually addressed. There seems to be a belief that we can cull the herds here in wet and windy Ireland and all will be well with the world.

If we were smart as a nation we would produce that food here . There are issues that need to be resolved -the dairy calves and the cartel among the meat plants etc but it is not insurmountable

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120858398#Comment_120858398

Meat and dairy are never cheap sources of protein unless heavily subsidized.

10kg of soya protein makes 1kg of meat protein. If you concern really is about feeding the world you see which one will get us there quickest.