Vacancy Figures Megathread

L1011

This is going to be the one and only thread for discussing vacancy figures, be they CSO, census, ESBN, GeoDirectory, councils or any other figures produced by any agency.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120910736#Comment_120910736

..

PommieBast

@hometruths [pulled across from general A&P thread]

A peculiarly Irish problem it would seem - our excess supply over what is considered normal in a functioning market is not sufficient to fix our shortage of supply in our dysfunctional market.

Where is the supply and where is the demand? And what sort of commute between these locations is acceptable? Those who think supply is sufficent need to justify the latter question.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120910803#Comment_120910803

What constitutes an acceptable commute seems a bit OT in a thread about vacancy figures?

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120910807#Comment_120910807

Vacancy figures are useless without geographic context.

Megathread only 4 posts in and gone completely off topic

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120910814#Comment_120910814

Where is the supply and where is the demand? And what sort of commute between these locations is acceptable? Those who think supply is sufficient need to justify the latter question.

Ok, well handily you can look at vacancy figures by local area division.

Some of the highest demand areas of Dublin with the most acceptable commute times - eg Ballsbridge, Ranelagh, Rathmines etc have vacancy rates in excess of 10%.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cpp2/censusofpopulation2022profile2-housinginireland/vacantdwellings/

hometruths

Airbnb obviously explains a lot of the high vacancy numbers: Airbnb listings rocket in Dublin despite homeless crisis

There has been a 57 per cent increase in Airbnb properties available to let in Dublin in the last year, while the number of homeless people in Ireland has increased by 20 per cent.

Properties actively listed for short-term let in the capital grew from 2,617 in June 2022 to 4,099 in June 2023, according to figures compiled by AirDNA, a data analytics company.

Nationally the number of properties on Airbnb grew 11 per cent in the past year to 24,172 even as a record 12,600 people are living in emergency accommodation such as homeless hostels, family hubs, hotel rooms or bed and breakfast establishments.

These are the properties that people are actively dismissing as available for to ease supply problems in the sales and rentals market.

PommieBast

Think underlying issue is difference between vacant and on the market.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120918741#Comment_120918741

Yes absolutely. The problem is a crisis shortage of properties on the market rather than a crisis shortage of housing stock.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120919051#Comment_120919051

To the average Jo Public the shortage on the market is what matters. Anything off the market may as well not exist as far as they are concerned as they have no access to it.

Real question is why a vacant property is off the market. A good portion of them will simply not be habitable.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120920769#Comment_120920769

The average Joe thinks these house might as well not exist because the average Joe just assumes that

a) there are no vacant properties in areas that people want to live

b) most vacant properties are uninhabitable.

But the data says the exact opposite. The assumptions are totally wrong.

Perhaps the reason for the assumptions are because people who are suffering most from the shortage on the market cannot possibly get their head around the idea that there are many who are not suffering from it who would choose to deliberately leave a property empty. But the data is telling us that it is definitely happening.

Here's a quote from an article written in a Canadian website:

Why keep a home vacant? There are a lot of reasons, but incentive is one of the biggest. Countries with the most vacancies have low carrying costs, and welcome foreign capital. Most of these countries don’t even collect beneficial ownership data, which is wild. In non-technical terms, it means they don’t want to know who the real owner of the home is, just someone to contact.

When prices advance faster than carrying costs, it makes sense to hold vacant homes. Especially in a housing crisis, since it creates an artificial supply shortage. The vacant units don’t just rise in value, they also contribute to the rise in home prices.

Anybody who thinks this has not been not happening in Ireland is deluded. In fact it is even more likely to happen here because of the stricter tenant legislation, risks of overholding etc etc.

https://betterdwelling.com/the-world-has-millions-of-vacant-homes-and-1-3-million-are-in-canada-oecd/

syrgian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120921033#Comment_120921033

I have been reading your posts for a while, and I didn't understand what I was supposed to conclude from them. Now I get what you try to point out. I want to ask you a few questions about your theory.

You say that from the data, we can conclude that there are dozens of thousands of houses empty, being rewarded by increases in house prices, that some day the owners plan to sell. No one in their family using them at all. That doesn't seem like rational behavior, wouldn't it be better to sell them and buy empty parcels as a passive, much less risky investment? Owning an empty house seems very risky to me, mostly because of these two points:

• If there's water ingress (or even without it, because of the lack of heating during winter), couldn't you get a damp that devalues a house by 10-100K € or even more?. And on top of damps, there can be other significant maintenance costs, like making sure the house does not turn into a derelict because of plants growing in, rats making it their home, or termites destroying the wood.
• Couldn't the house get broken in by squatters? That happens a lot in other countries when houses sit empty. I am guessing they first get burglarized, and when the word spreads that the house was just empty, squatters get in.

Obviously adding an empty-house tax would help adding a third point against leaving it empty, but those two incentives seemed enough to me.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120921199#Comment_120921199

Of course squatters or rats or both could get in, and to many including yourself, the cost and hassle of ensuring that didn't happen would enough of a deterrent not to leave a property empty.

But the point I keep making is that the data is unambiguously telling us that there are tens of thousands of vacant properties, so it's logical to assume that to many others, the above concerns are not a deterrent.

What is more likely to be wrong?

a) your assumption that everybody else is like you and would find the idea of keeping a property empty too risky.

or

b) the census data collected by the CSO

jonnreeks

How many empty houses or existing buildings is there in the country compared to the number who need housing!

Would be a nicer comparison to see, while I suppose most counties would have a fair idea! 😜

syrgian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120921311#Comment_120921311

My first thought would be that most of those empty houses are not distributed equally, and are mostly in areas where there's actually no shortage of housing (like in the middle of nowhere), and/or very low value (very small, energy inefficient and badly connected), to the point that the effort to rent or sell them and exchange them for land or other assets does not feel worth it to the landlord.

I'd like to know how many of those are 3 bedrooms houses at less than 45 minutes from Dublin city center by public transit (I don't even care about the condition of the house). I'd expect a very small number. If it's actually significant (like a hundred houses), then I would be very disappointed at the owner and the government for not producing the correct incentives.

PommieBast

One possibility is a lot of the "vacant" properties actually being short-term lets but these have been de-facto illegal in Dublin for years, so if that is the cause it is not going to be fixed.

I'm pretty sure some people have been keeping properties empty in order to chalk up the two years after which RPZ rules fall away, but most of these would be properties vacated voluntarily during Covid (typically 2020) and would have returned to the market by now.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120930503#Comment_120930503

Your first thought would be a perfectly logical one given the state of the market. But it is wrong according to the data. Sure proportionally there are more vacants in Leitrim, than in Dublin, but there are still a huge number in Dublin. And in Dublin they are disproportionately higher in the higher value areas. Again the opposite of your first thought.

I'd like to know how many of those are 3 bedrooms houses at less than 45 minutes from Dublin city center by public transit (I don't even care about the condition of the house). I'd expect a very small number. If it's actually significant (like a hundred houses), then I would be very disappointed at the owner and the government for not producing the correct incentives.

The CSO hace published the data for how many houses are vacant in Dublin (and elsewhere) - the only thing we are missing is how many bedrooms these houses have.

The combined total of vacant detached, semi-detached and terraced houses in Co Dublin alone is 17,474. We can assume these are less than 45 minutes from the city centre. I think we can assume at least 10,000 of them are 3 beds or more, as that is most common size of house.

You can verify these figures for yourself by clicking this link and selecting the relevant parameters: F2020 - Housing Stock

Above you said that you'd consider 100 houses to be a significant enough number to cause disappointment.

Now that you know that it is more like 10,000 what is your reaction?

syrgian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120931313#Comment_120931313

Well, extremely disappointed and dumbfounded as you would guess. Only around 20% of those are for sale and 4% for rent (looking at Daft figures). Which means that 75% or ~13125 are neither. Having even a third of those for sale would double the availability and make it more affordable. That's a huge opportunity to improve the situation short term. Is there any party that would try to put that stock to use? Sinn Fein perhaps?

Also, I am guessing this is going to be very hard and possibly privacy-violating, but is there any way to find real-world samples of those houses? To try to find a trend and understand the reasons. In the streets I pass by where I live, Churchtown, I don't know any empty house (I have seen people coming in and out, and they usually have cars or clues of recent use). Unless you count a ~70 year old widow that only stays at her 3BDR around half the week (the rest of the time she lives with her children).

Or maybe someone has some anecdata of people they know?

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120933713#Comment_120933713

That's a huge opportunity to improve the situation short term. 

Undoubtedly. And bear in mind this is only houses. There are another 14,000 vacant apartments as well in Dublin. And nobody is even looking at it. There is a wide pretence that this situation doesn't exist.

To try to find a trend and understand the reasons.

@PommieBast hit on two of the reasons above:

One possibility is a lot of the "vacant" properties actually being short-term lets but these have been de-facto illegal in Dublin for years, so if that is the cause it is not going to be fixed.

I'm pretty sure some people have been keeping properties empty in order to chalk up the two years after which RPZ rules fall away, but most of these would be properties vacated voluntarily during Covid (typically 2020) and would have returned to the market by now.

syrgian

I see. Thanks!

I am glad this thread got created, because I never understood where you were getting at, and I did not want to engage because it seemed controversial to talk about it in the property market chat thread.

Ireland is a fairly small country - is it not possible for a non-politician to raise this issue explicitly during political discussions?

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120934843#Comment_120934843

As you say, for some reason it seems controversial to talk about it. It gets shouted down in political discussions in much the same way that it gets shouted down on the property market chat thread.

There's a blindspot here - the reality is so out of kilter with what you'd expect that nobody believes it is true. Most people just assume there is no issue with vacancy, particularly not in Dublin, just as you did.

So no matter how loudly someone might shout about the problem, they're dismissed as some sort of lunatic. But I've yet to encounter any argument that stacks up for dismissing these figures.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120934843#Comment_120934843

Its just one of those thread-specific quirks. Most posters there have been around for years so there's a selection of sub-topics they are bored sick of. Think they also much prefer to keep discussion qualitative rather than quantitative.

If I thought Irish politicians had the willpower (let alone the ability) to fix the dysfunction rather than make it worse I would not have emigrated.

mrslancaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120931313#Comment_120931313

The census was in April 2022 - it's impossible to have accurate data when those figures were collected 16 months ago. They don't provide details of how many of those 17000+ houses have since been sold or let at this stage. The data doesn't give information about the numbers that belong to older people currently in nursing homes or how many were in the middle of probate or how many were in the middle of a renovation for future occupancy or how many are derelict and uninhabitable.

There's also a lot of people who bought a house or apartment who are working abroad temporarily or have moved in with a new partner. There are a lot of people whose PPR is empty for various reasons and those properties really shouldn't be included in the vacancy figures imo as they will never be available for sale or to let to make any difference to the current housing situation. PPR's that were temporarily vacant on census night can even include people who were away on holidays.

Take all those PPR's out of the figure in the link posted and how many are left?

Clearly, some of the properties that are left may never go back on the long-term rental market because of the anti-landlord regulations that have come into effect over the past number of years. They will be held for family members or maybe sold at some future date. Also, anyone looking at the housing market should remember the huge increase in the population over the past few years and the additional strain that puts on supply. Blaming private property owners for the problems in the housing market is not as clear-cut as some believe.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120936464#Comment_120936464

Your post is just full some of the most common misconceptions surrounding this topic.

To name but a few:

The data doesn't give information about the numbers that belong to older people currently in nursing homes - WRONG

or how many were in the middle of probate - WRONG

or how many were in the middle of a renovation for future occupancy - WRONG

or how many are derelict and uninhabitable - WRONG

PPR's that were temporarily vacant on census night can even include people who were away on holidays - WRONG

There is an undeniable rush to say nothing to see here, but in most cases the rush is based on a misunderstanding of the data you are dismissing. If you take the time to actually read the results and understand the methodology you will see it is not that simple to so quickly dismiss it.

hometruths

Again if anybody doubts these figures, you can verify them for yourself at F2014 - Vacant Housing Stock

mrslancaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120936496#Comment_120936496

Ok if you think I am wrong in my understanding of what is included in the vacant numbers but these are some of the FAQ's from the CRO website. I actually forgot about people who may have been in hospital.

..."The census vacancy figure is an accurate point in time measure, on Census Night in 2022. This figure was arrived at using detailed procedures and definitions which have been applied consistently over several censuses. It includes dwellings that were vacant for a short period of time. They may have been for sale, for rent, undergoing renovation, or the owner may have been in hospital, or a nursing home. These dwellings may well have been occupied again a few weeks after Census Night and may not be included in other counts of vacancy which tend to focus on longer term vacancy"...

..."we did note that many of the dwellings recorded as vacant were for sale, were rental properties, had a deceased owner, or were being renovated"... 

..."The number of vacant dwellings recorded in Census 2022 fell by 11% compared with Census 2016. In the same period, the housing stock in Ireland grew by 5%. The vacancy rate therefore fell from 9% to 8%"....

..."Properties which were declared vacant by enumerators on Census Night and described as rental properties include dwellings which were advertised on websites as being for rent, short term lettings including Airbnb properties, and dwellings which were between lettings but may not have been commercially advertised. There were 33,653 vacant dwellings which were rental properties. This was more than 20% of the total stock of vacant dwellings"...

https://www.cso.ie/en/census/census2022/census2022andvacantdwellingsfaq/

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120936658#Comment_120936658

Yes exactly. What you quoted from the CSO directly contradicts your statement:

The data doesn't give information about the numbers that belong to older people currently in nursing homes or how many were in the middle of probate or how many were in the middle of a renovation for future occupancy 

See the above figures for that exact data.

Plus the census vacant houses count does not include derelict or uninhabitable properties, nor do they include properties when people are temporarily absent, eg on holidays - contrary to what you claim.

PommieBast

@mrslancaster

Clearly, some of the properties that are left may never go back on the long-term rental market because of the anti-landlord regulations that have come into effect over the past number of years. They will be held for family members or maybe sold at some future date.

I have recollections of recent-ish PRTB figures showing a sharp downturn in the number of registered landlords. My guess is most will be sold once inflation comes down.

syrgian

Just saw announced this programme from today in RTE: https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2023/0803/1397887-derelict-ireland-why-so-many-of-our-properties-lie-empty/

Very relevant for the thread. Happy to see it being given attention.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120937038#Comment_120937038

I watched it and unfortunately almost it’s entire focus was on dereliction rather than vacancy. A serious problem no doubt but presentation like this does rather push the narrative that we don’t have a problem with vacancy because most of them are derelict.

of particular interest was Eoin o bro in, talking about a vacancy tax of 7%, doubling every year thereafter.

i don’t believe for a second they’d bring it in at that rate but even something close to it would sort the issue fairly quickly.