2023 RWC Buildup, Squads, Fixtures 'etc'

06-09-2023 2:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121076441#Comment_121076441

I chuckled that we're talking about a game involving France and it's the other team that we don't know if they'll show up or not!

I think NZ are going to rattle France badly early on and their composure is going to wane. The last 20 minutes in Dublin during the six nations they couldn't get themselves back into the game, I think the All Blacks are going to put a few late tries on them for a score line that 'looks worse than it is' scenario.

ElisaAtWar · 06-09-2023 2:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121074020#Comment_121074020

Good post. So here's, I believe, an interesting point. Let's say France and New Zealand do beat lumps out of each other. And let's say Ireland and South Africa beat lumps out of each other. In both cases I believe this is highly likely. With the difference being that France and New Zealand have much more recovery time available to them before the quarter finals. So if you just play it through game by game Ireland is at a distinct disadvantage entering the quarter final stage ( on the assumption they make the quarter finals). Keep in mind after the SA bruiser they take on Scotland to earn that position.

Which then leads to a suggestion. You play the competition qualifying rules for the quarter finals rather than the teams in front of you. And if you were to do that you would rest your primary team against SA and go full out from there on in. Be it France or New Zealand in the quarter finals it simply isn't going to be easy. But if you play the competition sensibly you have a fresh team against Scotland and as fresh a team as possible for the potential quarter final.

So you potentially throw a game in the knowledge it should see you go further in the competition. I know this is a bit radical but at the same time does it not make sense

TheRona · 06-09-2023 2:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121076625#Comment_121076625

You could look at the pool draw any way you'd like. Ireland get the chance to bring Johnny up to peak match sharpness before the SA game, and they do have 2 weeks to recover for the Scotland match, so it's not all bad for them.

AdamD · 06-09-2023 2:50pm

I swear anyone suggesting we throw the SA game must have skipped maths class in school. We can beat Scotland and still not qualify

Quin_Dub · 06-09-2023 2:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121076625#Comment_121076625

Valid points , but the risk of "putting all your eggs in one basket" is simply too great.

One badly timed tackle and you are playing half the game with 14 men for example.

Think you have to play each game to win and manage the resources accordingly.

06-09-2023 3:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121076625#Comment_121076625

On a purely logic basis this makes some sense - but when you add in the variables that exist in sport the risk factor of throwing a game rapidly outweigh any potential benefit.

And I don't like the idea of running from a fixture. Best way to win the World Cup is to beat everyone and whilst we have both a bad draw and an unfortunate run of games, I think the week before the Scotland game is enough for the squad to freshen up and we don't know yet whether the Scotland game will be an all out war or if we'll strangle them out of the game as usual.

TheRona · 06-09-2023 4:11pm

NZ team named

Injuries mean first choice missing at Prop, Lock, Blindside Flanker and 2nd 5/8.

ElisaAtWar · 06-09-2023 4:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121076853#Comment_121076853

Is your factual statement true Venjur. The risk factors outweigh the benefits. On basis do you form that opinion. You suggest we should go all out on what statistics.

I just mumbled an idea but I would be interested in what statistical basis it is incorrect which is what you suggest.

Note I am not trying to get at you here, but you made a statement and I just wish to understand the basis of that statement

TheRona · 06-09-2023 4:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121077226#Comment_121077226

The first statistic I would use is that no team has ever thrown a match and won the World Cup.

irelandrover · 06-09-2023 4:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121077226#Comment_121077226

Because if we lose to South Africa then we have to beat Scotland. Which gives zero wiggle room in the case of cards, injuries, or anything else that could possibly happen.

I really can't believe people are actually seriously suggesting that we throw a game in the world cup.

06-09-2023 4:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121077226#Comment_121077226

I mean, we can win 3 and lose 1 and not qualify so for that reason alone it isn't worth the risk.

We might much prefer to face one of France or New Zealand (more than the other) depending on how they go in the pools. Throwing a game takes away any influence we have on that.

I'd rather go into the final game with a loss still being enough to top the pool. Take the pressure off us and heap it all onto Scotland.

But as I said, it's the intangibles that exist within competitive sports that would stop you from considering this.

You don't throw a game in the biggest tournament in the sport, it's cynical and says something about your self belief.

Ireland need to back themselves to win this outright.

AbusesToilets · 06-09-2023 5:01pm

I do wonder if SA might go with a weaker team against us if it let them face NZ in the 1/4. Would be a very Rassie move

TheRona · 06-09-2023 5:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121077367#Comment_121077367

And fall into Ian Foster's trap?

swiwi_ · 06-09-2023 5:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121076441#Comment_121076441

Which teams turns up. Game of two halves. Team with most points wins.

MaddChris · 06-09-2023 6:21pm

...

Quin_Dub · 06-09-2023 6:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121077464#Comment_121077464

Well - To be fair we've seen two very different NZ teams in recent weeks.

The dominant one that played in the Rugby Championship and beat SA and the cowed one that turned out in Twickenham the other week.

If the NZ pack are as flat as they were then , the French even without Baille and Willemse up front will do serious damage.

swiwi_ · 06-09-2023 6:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121077713#Comment_121077713

Yeah I was just pulling your leg. Im totally relaxed about this RWC as anything other than NZ not winning would be a surprise.

Shehal · 06-09-2023 7:28pm

Anyone thinking we should throw the SA game are either slow or were home schooled. Stop trying to over think the situation, we are the best side in the world so no we wont be throwing any game.

AbusesToilets · 06-09-2023 7:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121077652#Comment_121077652

Don't think DDA has been particularly good, Esterhuizen looked better to me

Ben Bailey · 06-09-2023 7:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121077652#Comment_121077652

Back to a 6-2 bench

Quin_Dub · 06-09-2023 7:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121077907#Comment_121077907

Agreed - Think he's been underwhelming for a while now , including a lot of his time with Munster.

ElisaAtWar · 06-09-2023 8:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121077906#Comment_121077906

I believe that point has been made a few times without any solid basis to date. The argument for this is more players likely to be available towards the end of the competition. So far the argument against is, for example 'we are the best team in the world '.

ElisaAtWar · 06-09-2023 8:22pm

Anyway Venjur, we will agree to disagree and I believe what you say will be the reality. It doesn't mean I agree with it but I know what you say is more likely. It doesn't mean it's the right choice, I just can't see Ireland doing anything else. And yet my personal opinion is it's absolutely the wrong choice if we wish to win this competition. Anyway it will all come to pass and we can then look back in hindsight

AdamD · 06-09-2023 8:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121078049#Comment_121078049

If we sent our seconds out to play South Africa we'll get pumped for 30-40 points. That puts us in a situation where we'd get knocked out if Scotland beat South Africa unless we somehow make up that points difference. Nobody with half a brain would think that's a good idea

ElisaAtWar · 06-09-2023 9:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121078195#Comment_121078195

Hmm, we would already know the potential points difference risk going into the game. So it is not as you make it out at all my friend

sydthebeat · 06-09-2023 9:19pm

Points difference is not the first factor which determines who goes through in a tie. Points gained by those tied teams in their inter-games is more important.

Therefore a trouncing against SA could very easily mean that a win against Scotland doesn't put is through, should Scotland get a LBP against us.

It would be insanity to deliberately put ourselves into that position

PTH2009 · 06-09-2023 9:28pm

Anyone happen to have a spare wall chart they could possibly mail ?

I can donate €5 to a charity of there choice ?

PM if any available

Sanjuro · 06-09-2023 9:34pm

The coaching team are going to put out the strongest team they can, with some minor tweaks for every game. Forget this 3 and 4d chess stuff. Nothing we've seen in any Six Nations under Farrell suggests that he's going to gamble on anything but a win.

Brief_Lives · 06-09-2023 9:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121078341#Comment_121078341

loads here

https://www.amazon.co.uk/rugby-world-cup-wall-chart/s?k=rugby+world+cup+wall+chart

dastardly00 · 06-09-2023 10:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121078341#Comment_121078341

If you are badly stuck, a person on Reddit has created one themselves that you can print at home.

https://www.reddit.com/r/rugbyunion/comments/162yp4s/2023_rwc_calendar_to_fill/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

Paul Smeenus · 06-09-2023 10:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121075117#Comment_121075117

This. I had the Fijians to beat the Welsh, but it was based in no small part on how savvy and sensible Muntz is. I don't know enough about his back-up - does anyone familiar with him think they can still do it?

Paul Smeenus · 06-09-2023 10:42pm

Also - watched this earlier. I thought it was very interesting, specifically because of Ben Darwin, from Gain Line analytics. He's fascinating in his talk about what he defines as the primary reason for success, ahead of individual skill - cohesion. He thinks we'll win it, and that Scotland will be second in our group ahead of SA, because if things start going wrong for the Africans, he thinks they'll crumble.

In amongst a load of Kiwi cheerleaders (who are, to be fair, watchably self-aware and tongue in cheek), he makes for an interesting listen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dH7WGZNQ31Q

AbusesToilets · 07-09-2023 12:16am

Good watch, he makes some salient points. If Sexton and JGP stay healthy, I think we win it

07-09-2023 7:11am

One more sleep

AdamD · 07-09-2023 9:11am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121078608#Comment_121078608

That's a bit of a weird point considering largely the same group of players lost their opening game in the last world cup and went on to win it..

Paul Smeenus · 07-09-2023 9:28am

He just thinks they're currently overconfident. I'm summarising.

Shehal · 07-09-2023 10:09am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121078049#Comment_121078049

But if that's the case why don't SA go 2nd string against us, they are an inferior side so need more of an advantage than us, and let us worry about winning all our matches.

In real world the only country talking about throwing a game to "help our chances" its us, and the reason for that is because it's a really dumb idea.

Shehal · 07-09-2023 10:11am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121079252#Comment_121079252

They were more consistent going into the last RWC, nowadays they are very up and down at times. I mean lets be honest, the only reason the media and fans are wetting themselves about SA atm is because they won....ONE...GAME...

07-09-2023 11:16am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121079501#Comment_121079501

Yeah but they're always good in world cups. You can't ignore that they switch it on at the right time every cycle and they get better as the tournament progresses. In as much as people are factoring in our inability to breach the quarter final barrier - they are also factoring in South Africa's track record at the tournament and ability to repeatedly win the thing.

I'd be hoping for Ireland / Scotland to emerge from the pool as I think if SA make a final they'll be awful tough to beat. They have enough stock of forwards to just brute force their way through games and as the tournament progresses and fatigue kicks in they can keep churning out victories.

I think we can out box them in the pool, contain their game with an incredibly hard working and accurate defence and then just pick off our chances when they come along. It's unlikely we make a final without losing some continuity so our defence will somewhat deteriorate and if it's not as on top as I'd expect it will be in a few weeks then were in trouble. If we can't contain them as effectively in the final they'll run over us and I'd rather play any other team (including France) than South Africa should we get that far.

Yeah_Right · 07-09-2023 11:40am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121076506#Comment_121076506

I wish I had your confidence. I think we're going to get rolled in the opener. Look alright in the rest of the pool and lose the QF.

Yeah_Right · 07-09-2023 11:48am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121078049#Comment_121078049

I'm curious about the comment that more players would be available later in the tournament if Ireland threw the game against SA. Do you have some numbers that show more players get injured or red carded against SA than against other teams?

07-09-2023 11:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121079904#Comment_121079904

Nope. You don't need to worry at all, I have you making the final but losing to Ireland.

Whereupon I will be tea bagging you rent free in your head for all eternity.

TheRona · 07-09-2023 11:58am

When did France last beat NZ when NZ wore black? I know NZ were in their alternate strip in 2021 when they lost, and also in 07 when Barnes decided it was American Football.

Edit: It was Carisbrook 2009.

ionadnapokot · 07-09-2023 3:00pm

French troubles....still confident that they will beat NZ even without Baiile, Danty & Willemse.

And Jalibert's rapid rise was over 5 years ago! He made his debut v Ireland in 6N DG goal game.

Interestingly only 1 of the 7 guardians writers think Ireland will make the final. 2 dont think they get out of the group!

6 of them have SA in the final. I think they have put way too much premium on that Oil Cup game in Twickenham

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/sep/07/rugby-world-cup-2023-guardian-writers-predictions

This will age badly when Ireland beat SA in 2 weeks and hopefully very badly come the end of Oct.

Podge_irl · 07-09-2023 3:54pm

This might age poorly but those are dreadful predictions.

Hermy · 07-09-2023 4:10pm

AB You’d have to think South Africa are bound to take at least one of the two qualifying spots in Pool B

Rassie is arrogant but I don't think even he expects SA to take more than one of the two qualifying spots!

noc1980 · 07-09-2023 4:12pm

There's nothing crazy or stupid about predicting a SA or France or NZ win. Yeah it's irritating how nobody's giving us a shot but you have to look at it from the outside. We're in the toughest pool with the toughest possible QF and we've never won a knockout game. We're not going to be respected at the RWC until we make an impact at it. Pundits know that we've got a top team capable of winning it and if we get past the QF most of them will have us as favourites but it shouldn't be surprising to us that they remain doubtful over our belief come crunch time.

Cookiemunster · 07-09-2023 4:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121081332#Comment_121081332

For me, two of them predicting that Ireland won't get out of the pool is what's a bit mad about those predictions.

Pudsy33 · 07-09-2023 4:21pm

I particularly enjoyed the Georgia to escape the pool prediction. The type of madness I can get behind.

ionadnapokot · 07-09-2023 4:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121081332#Comment_121081332

Its not so much that they aren't picking Ireland, I find it amazing that so many of them think SA will get past NZ (or France) in the 1/4 finals & beat France in a final. It's not happening.

This SA are not near as good a side that won the WC 4 years ago. Lotta miles on the clock and are missing key players.

2023 RWC Buildup, Squads, Fixtures 'etc'

Comments