The dairy boom.Can we officially say its over

Jack98

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121011954#Comment_121011954

That is one input fertilizer, don’t know many bar the fellas buying everything off kerry that purchased fertilizer there this year…obviously people shopped around but fertilizer use was significantly down on most farms last year and the trend carried into this year I would say. Can’t buy the argument that ‘shopping around’ lead to the reduction in price of fertilizer nationally as this year progressed.

Most other costs are still at ridiculous levels, you claim the price of bales has went well down too but plastic has never been as expensive as it is this year and the majority of fertilizer spread on silage ground would have been bought early in the year at higher prices than currently available.

Yes you are probably correct saying prices have dropped but not that significantly overall and the capitulation of milk price is making things very tight for a lot of people.

GrasstoMilk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121011954#Comment_121011954

390€ was what we paid for the last load

it was 430€ this time last year at a much higher milk price

costs have not dropped in line with milk price is my point

and I am not for one minute whinging about milk price, well able to look after my own bed but it seems to be that the most ppl commenting on milk price and how dairy farmers are under pressure are not milking cows or are in no way linked to cows at all

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121011652#Comment_121011652

He went and spent a fortune on robots at the time if I remember, thinking it would leave the job a doddle but it was wound up cows wise fairly shortly after he got the reins to the place

Jack98

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121012050#Comment_121012050

Margin is tighter this year obviously but a lot seem to think dairy farmers haven’t adjusted their spending compared to last year, was grand to spend that bit extra last year when prices were strong and return was there. Lads have reeled spending in greatly this year in general where possible to maintain some bit of a margin.

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121011446#Comment_121011446

Was in his yard recently a lad I was dealing with has a unit rented off him. I'd say 30 different crowds in the place and building a fine flower shop at the bottom of the yard. Christmas trees n flowers growing all the way up.

I think he had a few ventures that didn't pan out but kept trucking n he has diversified well . milk price won't be bothering him too much

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121010564#Comment_121010564

Any chance you'd take on running the country......or failing that I've a badly run high cost (according to the geniuses) dairy farm badly in need of 20 cent a litre cost of production management

techman1

remember years ago that John O' Shea said on the Late Late. "Irish food will be coming from the third world whether Irish farmers like it or not".

That was a plausible argument 20 years ago after the over production in the EU during 80s. However that was long before the Ukraine war and droughts and floods in many food producing areas that has ravaged the global food supply chain in recent years. Also the limits on production in EU due to all the greening programs and limits on fertiliser and herbicides means that food production is going to fall.

I think the John O Shea argument has been disproven by events in Ukraine whereby the disruption to grain production in Europe is hitting the African countries. The growth in population in Africa alone means that it will be in no position to supply the global food markets and needs food itself from those markets

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121010870#Comment_121010870

Darragh is a complete shite blower ...the first thing that comes into darraghs head is wrote on paper and published........he's had to row back on more stuff than the two o donnavan brothers. More u turns done than a plumber a mate of mine reckons.

davidk1394

Following the thread since day one with interest. The expansion around me has slowed down a few years ago, even before I got in. Next few years are going to be difficult. When I was going for a loan I was stress tested at 24 cent and that was my break even back in 2020. Its at around 30/31 cent now, I was very lucky when I got in as the cost of construction was low with covid. I'm still spending but that's to pay for reseeding, fencing and water. I try do most of the work between myself and my father to keep the cost as low as I can. I'm going to stick on straw for the next few years until I build up some money (if that's going to be possible). While the price of milk is low its still better than lamb or beef, after coming through a few tough years of lamb prices I'm fairly certain I'll survive this just fine.

@Siamsa Sessions if I was in your shoes I'd just take the chance and put in a simple set up and get going. Hard to know when the perfect time will be to build.

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121011630#Comment_121011630

Ya absolutely and on top of that there's huge bitterness.. some of it brought on by certain dairy farmers more of it just begrudgeary. Some of it is dreamt up .....

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121012083#Comment_121012083

Almost immediately after he took the reins . His father was a good steady cow man and farmer ....they were sold a pup with the robots if I recall correctly....

Birdnuts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121012402#Comment_121012402

Thats a rather simplistic view of the situation. Fact is the EU's plans for more sustainable farming have already been stress tested in regards to output and have been found to have little or no effect. Indeed last year the EU exported a record amount of food. And still had the ability to burn the equivalent of 12m loaves a day via the biofuel scam. Same in the US where nearly half the corn crop is diverted to biofuels. As for weather related issues, its also true that high input intensive farming is most vulnerable as farmers in the likes of Spain and France etc. are finding out the hard way in terms of water rationing over the past few years. Its also apparent closer to home in terms of drier springs impacting grass growth most on high stocked, high input operators in the Dairy Space

Say my name

https://twitter.com/EuropeanMMO/status/1693992967336558650?t=SptOC58kznOhwXO0KKcQEQ&s=19

Germany, Holland, Belgium, Poland are up.

Ireland and especially France are way back in production.

whelan2

I don't read the farming independent or have much time for Darragh, but in fairness from what I see he's made a great job of the flower set up he has there. Yes his father was a successful dairy farmer but Darragh at least found out dairying wasn't for him and he has a good set up there now with land leased etc.

mahoney_j

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121013505#Comment_121013505

Holland up is the stand out there

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121013750#Comment_121013750

Haven't a clue what's going on.

Could be the Ukrainian feed coming across Europe as far as the low countries. And Ireland maybe now with everyone feeding lower protein meal, not just dero only.

mahoney_j

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121013833#Comment_121013833

I’d place big question marks on quality of straights comming from Ukraine /Russia region this year ….there just wasn’t the same feeding in nuts this year

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121013923#Comment_121013923

Could be just Irish cute hoorism in passing off crap. Some reason anyway for poland across to belgium increasing supply.

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121013750#Comment_121013750

Theirs a bit of messing going on their, theirs more cows been milked their in reality than what it’s ment to be on paper

Jb1989

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121013923#Comment_121013923

Yes big beef man here said the power hasn't been in the meal this last 12 months.

TinyMuffin

There was a big deal made of getting boats out of Ukrainian ports to Africa last year. 1 boat had been loaded for something like 6 months and wasn’t fit for human consumption Very mouldy Guess where it ended up. Ireland.

Cavanjack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121014127#Comment_121014127

No doubt it was got cheap and the millers passed the savings on to the farmer.

Donald Trump

I'd say that there will be more than a few cases like the anecdote here

https://www.independent.ie/farming/legal-advice/the-farmer-we-leased-our-land-to-says-he-cant-afford-to-pay-the-rent-what-are-our-options/a664396711.html

Or here for behind paywall

https://archive.ph/3AAES

The scenario in the anecdote is that after 3 long-term leases to a neighbouring farmer, they went with a different one for higher money. Now that one is in arrears and says he won't be able to pay the agreed rate going forward

TinyMuffin

From what I was told the rent can be renegotiated and a new lease agreed with the same farmer with no tax implications. But if it’s a new lease with a different farmer the tax has to be paid if the lease doesn’t run for its 5 10 years.

farawaygrass

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121014972#Comment_121014972

That’s playing into the hands of the person renting the ground so

dar31

That’s in correct. The lessor has 12 months to get a new tenant in. And a new stamped lease in place. I would assume the new lease must last the same duration of the existing lease or longer. One shorter that the original term may result in a tax liability.

TinyMuffin

That what was said around here with some of the very dodgy people giving big money for 10 year leases. Easy give if your going to pull out after 3 or 4 years and leave the farmer to pay the tax or reduce the rent.

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121015616#Comment_121015616

A escrow account with a full years rent in it that automatically goes to the land owner in the event of a missed payment for yearly rent and a lease termination clause effectively immediately would be a minimum for leases done at the f**k off money especially if dealing with a unknown tenant, had a auctioneer out recently that was saying he spends a good chunk of his week doing mediation where leases break down

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121014959#Comment_121014959

Damn you bet me too it Donald 😂😂

Siamsa Sessions

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121015704#Comment_121015704

I agree with you, but jaysus isn't it getting very cold and harsh when you'd have to insist on a year's rent as deposit and a clause to the kick the tenant out immediately.

You'd hope it'd never come to enacting any of those and just having them in place would be enough to keep the tenant in line.

We've ground leased out to a neighbour (and friend of my brother) and it's been fairly OK so far. But there's been a few issues along the way too. You're always hoping you never have to get the lease out to check what exactly is written in it. The good is gone out of it then.

Anyway, I wouldn't lease out ground again. I'd sell it first.