The dairy boom.Can we officially say its over

Wildsurfer

Was at ATN music festival 2 weeks ago and all the trendy Dubs were looking for oat milk for their coffees, at Tullamore show yesterday and the Vegan food truck had no one at it whenever I passed. I think they picked the wrong show to go to.

fulldnod

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120972665#Comment_120972665

Explain to me how u milk a oat

older by the day

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120975048#Comment_120975048

I know you know more than I do, but a young lad over the road was completely ate with that when he was young. His parents tried everything. His father told me it was a warm bath with Milton every evening sorted his problem. It took six months but it improved it 90 percent. It was when I said to his father how good he looked. It might be worth looking in to

older by the day

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120976148#Comment_120976148

Problem is finding the oat tities.

mr.stonewall

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120976449#Comment_120976449

We had the Milton baths as well

patsy_mccabe

If you changed one letter, you could have OAD Milk, Once A Day. Those clowns would never know the difference.

I must give The Dairy Board a ring.

weatherbyfoxer

Do people think the option of converting to milk is gone now with falling price and building costs still up?

Birdnuts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120975176#Comment_120975176

Too true eg. the average conventional carrot 2day has only a fraction of the nutrients compared to the pre-agri chemical era(1960's onwards), plus the increasing exposure of children to a vast array of other man made chemicals now ubiquitous in the environment from micro plastics to Biphenols etc. 😔

Reggie.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120977340#Comment_120977340

I'd say so for the minute as alot of lads now feeling the pinch

fulldnod

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120977340#Comment_120977340

I only no of 1 getting in next winter, new entrants were getting scarce anyway even with a good price

K.G.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120977340#Comment_120977340

Yes.but it depends scale and borrowing. You need 3 things to milk land,infrastructure and cows.ifyou haven't got at least 2 out of 3 without borrowing forget it

JustJoe7240

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120978098#Comment_120978098

Do you mean Yes there's still opportunity? Or Yes the option is gone?

Siamsa Sessions

I’m still trying to get builder quotes here for milking before I make any decision. So I’ve a vested interest in the price of milk.

But if someone decided to convert just because of one good year, like last year - surely that’s not the best evidence or motivation.

To use the financial terms, why would you buy in at the top of the market or when everyone was saying things could only go up or stay up for ever?

Would it be like buying a house in 2007? (Which myself and Herself did!)

1848

Have to take a long term approach as new entrant. Most borrowings are over 10-15 year period. Used to reckon on €200-250K for start up say 80 cows. Problem is start up costs are gone well past that & interest rates have risen. Each situation is different. In case of father/son situation, maybe a need for one party to work off-farm for a few years. One or two good years at the start make a big difference - last few years were in that category.

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120974642#Comment_120974642

Could well be the milk but just bare in mind coeliac disease. ....... obviously Could be nothing to do with it.

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120974672#Comment_120974672

Ya if we could only manage it with everything we produce

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120974701#Comment_120974701

Ya agree happening me regularly now with anything more than a handful of porridge

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120975019#Comment_120975019

It's supposed to be good used as a salve or poltic on eczema I have heard also

K.G.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120978174#Comment_120978174

I think the time to start up is gone unless you have the price of either the buildings and infrastructure or the cows and a fine tract of land.

cute geoge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120978189#Comment_120978189

Why don't you lease a small dairy farm instead of going building a dairy unit.You could offset the cost by leasing some of your own ground tax free for 5 years!!

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120978320#Comment_120978320

No gluten in oats

Water John

There are farmers in Ireland whose organic oats goes into making organic oat 'milk'😉.

mf240

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120978625#Comment_120978625

https://www.coeliac.org.uk/information-and-support/living-gluten-free/the-gluten-free-diet/about-gluten/oats/

mf240

One good year is hardly a boom.

The price will bottom out and recover eventually.

If a lad was going to get into cows it would be easier handle salesmen in a downturn.

If you can get in without taking on too much debt then its worth a chance. ( I would of said exact same , this time last year)

mahoney_j

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120978189#Comment_120978189

Last year was a complete freak year even with high fert and meal costs the milk cheque was so big it trumped it ….this year Is fairly humbling …..can’t see the same gra now for expansion or getting into milk ….landscape has and is changing …high interest rates …astronomical costs to do any building costs or even routine mantinance jobs around farm then throw in nitrates banding etc

Pinsnbushings

I think it will take until next spring before the euphoria built up over the last couple of years settle.. a neighbour spending 400k plus getting into milk, but they have alternative sources of income.. another man on smallish land base getting in down the road.

Coming out of the Tullamore show yesterday, some were saying that would be the last on that site..500 cows to be milked there going forward. No idea if there is any truth in that

mr.stonewall

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120978859#Comment_120978859

We tend to look at the farm as an island or this country. Some of the biggest factors of affecting margin happen outside the farm gate with commodities prices. We have a serious set of skilled farmers in this country who have a unique method of production compared to over 95% of dairy produced. Using this to our advantage will be vital in the next few year.

There will be casualties over the next few year, some good new entrants will join, but their numbers will be low. Being flexible and able to adjust numbers by +/- 10% annually could be safest move some could make for the next few years

charolais0153

i know a few lads who are just out of college and getting into cows. If your young enough and have enough land theres no reason why you cant go at it

TinyMuffin

A life sentence.

Siamsa Sessions

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120978387#Comment_120978387

I’d rule nothing out but I don’t think there’s any place around me that’s up for lease anytime soon. Plus I want to walk to the parlour (it’d be a 3-min walk from my front door) rather than get in a car and drive to it. I wouldn’t get the rent tax free either on my own ground but I like that outside the box thinking 😀

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120978859#Comment_120978859

That’s pretty much why I’d ignore last year. I’m trying to think in terms of the next 20 years and what I’ll be doing for those 20 years.

I need to spend money on slurry storage. Full stop. My options are (a) milk 60 cows, (b) rear and fatten 70 calves/cattle and try to stay at the off-farm job, or (c) forget about farming, sell the place (I wouldn’t lease it again), and go back to the Mon-Fri 9-5 that I can’t stand. The slurry storage for (a) and (b) will cost roughly the same.

I’m 46 and I’ve 20 years of full time work left. I’m open to any other options people suggest but at the moment, option (a) is the one I’m aiming for for several reasons. If the finances add up - that goes without saying. I might be a bit of an eejit but I’ve a young family so I can’t afford to be a complete eejit 😀

Sorry for getting slightly philosophical about this and thanks for reading - writing things out helps get things someway straight in my head.

bogman_bass

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120977365#Comment_120977365

That’s nonsense

weatherbyfoxer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120979118#Comment_120979118

Would you reckon you wouldn't need an off farm job along with 60 cows?..Most posts I see on here are talking 75-80 cows for a living?

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120979118#Comment_120979118

Rear and fatten cattle and hold onto the day job. Hardest part is building the shed. A decent straight 4 bay slatted, 9 or 10' deep tank. 16' slats. Run back off one bay with area to be scraped will hold 30+ bucket fed weanlings. The rest of the shed will hold the finishers. You would probably nearly get away with a 3 bay designed like that but it would be tight unless you slaughtered a good few off grass at 20 months.

It's impossible to make money out of beef unless you finish them yourself.

Siamsa Sessions

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120979163#Comment_120979163

Income is only half the equation. Outgoings will be the deciding factor for the financial side of the decision, which I guess will depend mostly on the cost of slurry storage in my case and the related loan repayments.

Fox Tail

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120975157#Comment_120975157

Thats the way the world is going.

Meat products will reduce in consumption in first world countries.

Fox Tail

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120976148#Comment_120976148

You dont need to milk it to drink it.

These products are certainly becoming more and more popular. Plenty of cafes using them also.

funkey_monkey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120979118#Comment_120979118

What about a partnership?

Siamsa Sessions

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120979326#Comment_120979326

Again, I wouldn’t rule it out. But you’d probably have to get on better with the partner than you do with the wife.

I phoned the land mobility crowd (think that’s the name?) but never heard anything back from them.

K.G.

Don't ignore one important fact if you re considering starting milking ,government and indeed European policy is firmly going against you.i would caution anyone borrowing on the strength of derogation type stocking rate.i think 200 will be the next step or abolition completely. Why pay to get rid of cows when they can do it a one stroke of a pen and seem like carbon hero's as well

GrasstoMilk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120979380#Comment_120979380

You need to keep an eye on the land mobility section in the farmers journal

Every farm gets put up on it

tesla_newbie

I live in rural Ireland and read this farming forum now and again, a good few folks including myself are allergic to cows milk , I end up coughing and wheezing if I eat dairy, I use hazelnut milk as I hate the other alternatives , oat milk isn’t an option as I’m also gluten intolerant

plenty go for vegan milk to be trendy clowns but it’s necessary for some

fulldnod

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120979299#Comment_120979299

Do u have have to explain the difference between liquid and milk

straight

I'd say the boom passed us by around here in the home of dairying. All we see is numbers of dairy farmers declining steadily over the years. Down to one dairy farmer per townland now in general. The odd lunatic then gets cows in his brain and fills the void of about 10 smaller farmers that have packed in due to being forced out through lack of profitability. They can't get enough land, cows, hardship but think they are superheroes. I'd say this year and possibly next year will see the demise of alot of these lads but the 30 to 50 cow man has been forced out and is not there now to fill the milk tanks anymore.

It's always possible to set up a dairy farm but you have to eat the elephant in small bites and ask yourself is it worth it or is it what you will be happy at. Fairly easy for the small guys like me to tighten our belt on a year like this but not so for the dairy heroes.

I have 80 cows now and you would be just looked down upon and told you are the new 30 cow man and all that rubbish. Sure god love us.

Siamsa Sessions

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120980660#Comment_120980660

You are not alone 😀

I posted this image on Twitter a few weeks back (apologies if I posted it here too) and this is the link to the Agriland article: https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/average-dairy-and-suckler-herd-sizes-for-2022-revealed/

Over half of all dairy farmers have between 25 and 100 cows (8,820)

Jack98

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120980921#Comment_120980921

What land base are you working off if considering going milking, if you were to milk 60 cows you might have to rent additional land with new regs.

Siamsa Sessions

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120980956#Comment_120980956

I'd have 75 acres (30 HA) and I just checked the figures again with the IFAC calculator: https://www.ifac.ie/news-insights/news/ifac-launches-nitrates-banding-calculator

Please pick holes in the following coz I'm half blind (and probably too optimistic) from doing sums on it now 😀

Assuming I'd have mostly 1st and 2nd calves, then I'd be in the lower band of under 4,500 for the first 2 years (maybe longer?). All heifers/cows would be bred to an AA bull for those first few years and all calves would be sold at 4 weeks. It's another cost but I'd buy a few replacements on point of calving or just calved. After that I'd see which of my own would be worth breeding replacements off.

With no calves or maiden heifers, 60 cows at 80kgN means total kgN is 4,800 and across 30HA that's 160kg. So, whatever else might go wrong (and I'm sure there'd be plenty) for the first two years, I'd be OK on nitrates.

Where the pressure would come is from then on. If the cows go up into the middle band, I'd hit 177kg. And that's before I think about keeping 10-15 replacements around the place. I'd need to rent 15 acres to drop back below 170kg again. I wouldn't rule out derogation, assuming 220kg will still be available in 2025, but it's not plan-A at this stage.

Anyway, it's all pie-in-the-sky at the moment and I'm just tipping away trying to get some experience in different parlours and tease out the various sums.

On a related note: I spoke to a local man this morning who does drawings for yards and buildings. He's flat out and couldn't get to me until Oct he said, but he said to work away if I find someone else in the meantime. So, if anyone could recommend someone in the south-east of the country I'd be all ears. Thanks.

Jack98

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120981615#Comment_120981615

What a cow type would you be going for? Tbh if you implemented the system you’ve outlined there even if milking all heifers I’d be very surprised if you stayed in the lower band as you should have plenty grass infront of the cows at that stocking rate…I’d be running the figures on the middle banding. That would have you closer to 50 than 60 cows on the land base staying out of derogation.

Your system would be a very simple one however and would aid to a great lifestyle milked for a man previously milking 200 cows in a flying herd style setup after breeding most days were 6 hour work days, plenty time for family and other interests.

roosterman71

Isn't it a joke that ya'd be struggling to stay within limits with 60 middling cows on 75 acres

Siamsa Sessions

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120981763#Comment_120981763

Can't believe I left out the most important bit - the cow herself!

I bought 20 Holstein-British Friesian calves back in Feb. Varying degrees of each breed in them. You can tell already which are more stocky and which have more Holstein in them.

If I don't go milking, I'll sell them as in-calf heifers in Oct/Nov 2024.

Mooooo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120981615#Comment_120981615

Tbh a flying herd wouldn't be a bad route at all, biggest risk would be tb breakdown really, as replacements brought in while locked up wouldn't be covered by comp if they went down and possibly getting stuck with calves. Main reason I haven't considered it more myself. Would make life simple, calves gone not long after calving finished, breeding next focus after that just manage grass and cows.

50 cows in the middle band would be about it for 30ha not in dero which would be comfortable enough, up to 70 if up to 220/ ha. If seriously considering it getting soil fertility and reseeding up to date prior to cows landing would be important too

If buying in getting a few cows, 2nd plus lactation would help a new herd settle in parlour and cashflow of higher yield over heifers would be important starting out. Also replacement rate in first year may be higher due to stress etc. Dealing with a herd of heifers can be tough in the parlour, that's what we found when restocked anyway.

I'd say have a look around some local farms re facilities and layout if you can. Some of the lads doing the drawings can be fine and all but sometimes they seem to think we can all re build from scratch with bottomless pockets and their suggestions can reflect that. Local builders might have suggestions too from things they've seen.