FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

newholland mad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121194949#Comment_121194949

What's rainfall looking like after Wednesday?

Gonzo

The cold spell later next week still looks on track which could be a huge shock to the system after the big lift up in temperatures this weekend and into the early part of next week.

On this particular run the GFS is showing daytime temperatures no higher than 2 to 5C in some midland areas.

As for rainfall looks alot more unsettled from Wednesday onwards with plenty of rain across western and northern areas but all areas seeing more rainfall which could turn wintry at times across hills and mountains by next weekend.

It's worth nothing that the GFS 00z is on the colder end of the spectrum but all runs show a massive drop off in temperature from much warmer than normal to much cooler than normal over a very short time frame.

esposito

The above very American style in terms of massive temperature fluctuations.

I wonder will this become more common with climate change in full swing.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121195174#Comment_121195174

We had one after Christmas in 2000,but you are right they are becoming rare these days due to the warming Arctic. The GFS is probably overdoing it with those low temperatures for the weekend after next.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121198089#Comment_121198089

That was a cracker for the northern half of the country.

Elmer Blooker

I’m having my doubts that this expected cold spell will even happen at all.

Scotland looks cold but that’s about it … all FI of course so we'll have to wait.

pauldry

Ya more likely the cold won't happen than the warm WILL happen nowadays. Probably a 2 day shock then back to 12 to 14c average again.

.Donegal.

Tomorrow week.

7c in the NW. 17c in the SE.

naughto

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121199548#Comment_121199548

Now where talking

sryanbruen

Cue the "if only it were winter". Pure fantasy land and that's where it will remain all winter.

nacho libre

Another warm up from the ECM this evening. Which model has it right?

bazlers

I wouldnt say all winter..might be some surprises to come.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121225277#Comment_121225277

Probably one last warm reload and a late 20c.

This winter has been so written off it'll probably surprise.

Gonzo

A big change in the weather has occurred over the past day or so, we have lost the very warm temperatures for the time of year and are now in a much more seasonal and cool setup. Things are about to get cooler, especially at night as the cold air from the north digs further south into Europe over the next few days. Very little rainfall is expected over the next while as high pressure may become centered over us yet again, but this time it will be a cold ridge.

Chilly northerly winds over the weekend easing as heights begin to rise. Cold night time temperatures getting to 0c in places.

Winds next week may go easterly or south-easterly as the high tries to make a move towards Scandinavia.

Feeling fairly chilly at this point with raw easterly winds.

We finish up at +384 hours with winds still in from an easterly direction. IF these charts were to happen late November to December i'd be very excited but it's only October, but interesting that we are seeing charts like this well before winter begins.

Current guidance suggest not much rain over the coming 2 weeks with some parts of the country, particularly northern half of the country staying almost completely dry, lots of time for this to change but for now it looks like the Atlantic may be blocked off for some time to come.

nacho libre

It's such a tease. We all know the vortex of doom will be back home to Greenland just in time for winter proper. Still it will be nice to have some bright crisp days to enjoy for a while. As a bonus It might also mean I don't have to cut the grass again this year.

adocholiday

Next Wednesday/Thursday looking pretty wet for some parts, ECM has orange level accumulation for the SW and GFS has orange level accumulation for Dublin/Wicklow.

May not come to pass but there's been a lot of talk about a bit of a dry spell coming up and this is going against that now.

adocholiday

This mornings runs pushing it back a bit but still showing up. GFS wants to wash Youghal away with 100mm+ on Thursday but I imagine that will downgrade. ECM still showing orange for the South but on Friday instead of Thursday. Of course it's FI still so this could all change, but worth keeping an eye on the charts over the next few days.

sryanbruen

GFS 06z said feck it let's put all the options on the table with a proper easterly followed by a 935mb low.

Sammy2012

That better not happen!! Its marathon weekend. ☺️

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121236682#Comment_121236682

Omg that's red warnings all over In terms of wind if only that was 4 weeks delayed it would be sortive like November 2010 ,of course it may not happen at all this far out but sometimes the out lier in the right outcome

Chris_5339762

GFS always comes up with absolutely hysterical low pressures at this time of year.

nacho libre

Well whatever about GFS having monster lows, we go back to the unsettled crap early next week. While previously It looked like staying settled for longer the Atlantic, as usual,had other ideas. Let's hope the rest of October does not stay unsettled.

Hooter23

It does look like there could be big storms starting in the last week of October...potential storms starting in about 10 days time on the some charts.. the conditions for big storms are perfect with the strong jetstream and very warm and cold air collided all in the right place ...we have not had that many big storms in autumn recently but it was very common in the past...we will see sure

Meteorite58

Looking very wet out to +240hrs

Gonzo

The models certainly had a very quick flip from a fairly dry outlook for the second half of October to what is now looking like an absolute deluge second half of October. Today is probably last chance for most people to give their gardens one final cut before the winter.

If this very wet pattern verifies over the next few weeks 2023 is going to finish up a very wet year indeed.

Storm 10

Would that be a named storm I saw that some system had been named Babet

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121245245#Comment_121245245

Yes the Met Office have named it Storm Babet

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121245235#Comment_121245235

We'll pass the LTA at my local station in Roches Point by the end of the week. Last year's total will be beaten by tomorrow evening. It all balances out in the end, I have a feeling we'll get some drier spells before the end of the year.

Gonzo

GFS 12z going for between 100 and 160mm of rainfall over the next 2 weeks across most parts of the country.

pauldry

Ya wer getting 120mm in Sligo so by month end we'll have nearly as much as July. (That wet month)

Currently only about 30mm so there's plenty of space in the rivers and lakes around here for more than 100mm

waterwelly

Could be another winter of flooding all down the Shannon.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121247818#Comment_121247818

I think it good be as well ,2009 is on my mind and what followed the flooding ,the cold snap in January and February 2010

US3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121229537#Comment_121229537

Only 4 days ago. 😭😭

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121250406#Comment_121250406

The beauty (or the ugly?) of blocking patterns.

sryanbruen

Looks a big mess all round in the outlook with weak blocking in higher latitudes and a meridional jet stream over Ireland. Latest runs are not as wet as what has been showing but wouldn't surprise me if we continue to see exceptional wet conditions with this pattern that is giving me November 2009 and November 2019 vibes depending on which model run you're looking at.

Both featured blocking to the NE but in 2019 the jet stream was more southerly tracking and was colder whilst in 2009 it was amplified sending some of the energy northward and southward so was a much milder month. Both brought very wet conditions to different parts of the country with 2009 being more nationwide and of course the infamous floods in Cork whilst 2019 was drier in the northwest and the east was very wet.

I don't want to generate false hopes but this is generally speaking a good position to be in for down the line. Blocking to the NE of Europe perturbs the stratospheric polar vortex from intensifying. It is way too early to be talking about major sudden stratospheric warmings but this is something we want to see repeated again and again for any chance of blocking patterns in early 2024. In the meantime, the same pattern gives the prospects of lots of rain to come. With El Niño, a wet November is a very high chance anyway. There's very few Niño events where November isn't a very wet month.

I find it interesting how the CFSv2 is singing from the same hymn sheet with a vast amount of blocking in an ideal position for perturbing the SPV but Atlantic is rampant with a deep trough that would give lots of rain combined with the warm sea temperatures. A recipe for disaster. The blocking will also result in fronts being slow-moving.

crusd

Beginning to take the look of Autumn 2009

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121254003#Comment_121254003

Yes, that November started off wet and exceptionally mild and then there was an extreme cold out break towards the end of the month. Was there a Canadian warming back then prior to the cold outbreak?

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121254261#Comment_121254261

The extreme cold outbreak was 2010, not 2009. There was a northeasterly though at the end of November 2009 that gave some bad flooding here in the east near a fortnight after the Cork floods. 28th was quite a cold day in the north (though the same day a year later would be record-breaking cold!), think around Monaghan had freezing fog and it wasn't far from ice day conditions?

There was a significant disruption to the stratospheric polar vortex thanks to persistent Ural blocking in November 2009. This would end up becoming the driving force for the major blocking that would give us the cold spell from mid-December 2009 to mid-January 2010 as illustrated by the orange and red colours on the graph below downwelling from the stratosphere down to the trop.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121254330#Comment_121254330

Maybe my recollection is incorrect, but the end of that November and before mid December was cold, maybe not severely cold, but I remember playing soccer in quite cold conditions before mid December. They had a lot of snow in the north East of England to end that November.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121254638#Comment_121254638

That was 2010 also. NE England had a huge fall on 24th Nov 2010, started in Ireland on the 26th. The 2009 cold did not begin until mid-December and the first snowfalls in England occurred on the 16th. November 2009, aside from the colder northerly I mention above, was very mild, extremely wet and snowless.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121254817#Comment_121254817

Alright. My memory has gone to pot then. I thought the cold spell in 2009 had started earlier, but clearly it didn't!

crusd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121254848#Comment_121254848

It almost went straight from relentless rain and flooding to -10 in my recollection about the 2nd week of December.

nacho libre

Is it too soon for Christmas Charts? :)

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121256598#Comment_121256598

It's not too soon for Lidl and Aldi filling their supermarkets full of Christmas Chocolates already so it's not too early for Christmas Weather Charts!

Tazio

Just for fun :: Sat 28th on GFS looks it could be exciting if it was to pass.... again it's very far out so usual terms and conditions apply.

esposito

No thanks.

CirrusBusiness

Long way out but certainly something to be keeping an eye on. That would not be good after all the rain and flooding.

Tazio

would that be the remnants of Tammy?

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121263924#Comment_121263924

On the current run it looks like some of the energy probably absorbed with another area of Low pressure heading towards us or near us. Will see, many changes to come over the coming days but will see if a trend develops, worth keeping an eye on. Not showing up on the ECM though, wonder will it be on the 12Z when it comes out soon.

Both ECM and GFS keeping the Jet mostly South of us so looks to stay on the cooler side apart from brief milder interludes as fronts go through, looks about average for time of the year I would think. Low Pressures dominant in off the Atlantic giving a fairly wet outlook .

Sammy2012

Hows the weather looking for next Sunday??