Extra Seat Recommended for Dublin West

blanch152

The Constituency Commission Report has been published and an extra seat has been recommended for Dublin West. This will be done through the addition of some extra territory from Dublin North-West.

A second Sinn Fein seat? Emer Currie? Ruth Coppinger? A Labour revival?

Thoughts?

https://ec-report.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/constituency-review-report-2023.pdf

"The Commission recommends that the Dublin West constituency should be allocated an additional seat to become a 5 seat constituency. The transfer of parts of two EDs with a population of 2,284 from the Dublin North-West constituency to the Dublin West constituency is recommended. The Dublin West constituency would have a population of 137,360 with a variance of -7.17%. Current configuration Recommended configuration 4 seat constituency, largely comprising of Fingal County Council areas, with EDs from the Dublin City Council local authority area. Becomes a 5 seat constituency. Parts of two EDs transferred from Dublin North-West. The Dublin West constituency is currently a 4 seat constituency with a population of 135,076. The Dublin West constituency population increased by 13,179 (10.8%) since 2016. The Dublin West constituency is mostly made up of EDs in the Fingal County Council area - with some EDs from the Dublin City Council area. The Commission considered the large increase of population that the constituency experienced since 2016, and the alignment of the local authority boundaries. A number of the submissions received called for the Navan Road/Ashtown area to be transferred to the Dublin Central constituency. There were also some calls for the Dublin West constituency to be allocated an additional seat - to become a 5 seat constituency. The Commission considered that the variance of Dublin West is 14.1%, which is an unacceptably high figure. The transfer of a small population from Dublin North West of 2,284, consisting of parts of two EDs, would provide the constituency with sufficient population to support the allocation of an additional seat, making it a 5 seat constituency. It would also allow for maximum continuity and for aligning some of the constituency boundary with the Dublin City boundary. Accordingly, the Commission recommends the transfer of parts of two EDs with a population of 2,284 from the Dublin North-West constituency"

Fatnacho

I’d say the 4 sitting TD’s should be safe but O’Gorman might be in danger if there’s a backlash against the Greens. Some of the let’s say, more socially conservative voters, might not vote for him either.

Currie could sneak in for the extra seat if Coppinger eats into the SF vote again and if they don’t manage the vote properly. Walsh from Labour should do well but will fall short.

If I was betting I’d say 2 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF & 1 Green though.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121050156#Comment_121050156

Agree with that outcome.

On candidates, think McCamley would be the better candidate for Labour.

Former Former Former

ABC

Anyone

But

Coppinger

Larbre34

Varadkar isn't standing, Emer Currie will lead the FG ticket.

Varadkar means to stand down as party leader and retire from politics altogether at the next general election, whenever he chooses to call it.

You heard it here first.

1 FG, 1 FF, 1 Grn, 1 SF and a bun fight between Lab, SPBP and SF for the 5th.

AlanG

I think O'Gorman will be breathing a sigh of relief. He shoudl be ok now. Coppinger probably has a chance but SF are likely to run a second candidate. Labre34 prediction of 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 Grn, 1 SF and a fight between Lab, SPBP and SF for the 5th is what I would consider most likely too.

hardybuck

Most likely outcome is that the current incumbents retain their seats, and then a right battle for the fifth seat which will be nearly impossible to call I think.

A lot of commentators have mentioned SF's massive first preference in 2020 - but FG weren't a million miles away from them in terms of first preference votes that Varadkar and Currie got. I wouldn't be surprised if Currie did better next time around as she's been fairly visible as a Senator and they will be optimistic of returning two candidates in that context.

I think while a lot of people are just assuming that SF will just run additional candidates and that'll translate into additional seats, but they actually have to be careful about who they run and where to avoid diluting their vote too much. Donnelly's surplus didn't make too much difference in terms of the final outcome in 2020, it was actually Emer Currie and Joan Burton's surplus that got O'Gorman over the line ahead of Coppinger.

Interesting also that Donnelly doesn't seem to be a Ministerial candidate if SF get in, while potentially all the other FF, FG and Green TDs will be.

Finally, throw gender into the mix and I'm sure a lot of people will be looking to vote for a female candidate, particularly if it's their second or third preference. This could be vital to the likes of Currie, Coppinger or in the event that SF run a second female candidate.

jd

The area that has been moved from DNW to DW voted heavily for SF (about 70% of the first preferences, I think)

Larbre34

Certainly, of all the larger parties, SF is most likely to take the last seat.

However, Ruth Coppinger plays a brilliant ground game and will also there or thereabouts.

Caranica

Anyone else have FF canvassers this week? Local councillor plus someone who tried to change my mind about Jack Chambers 😂