2023 NFL regular season thread (no picks)

Itssoeasy

Happy new year. The eagles played last night and were **** terrible.

ArmaniJeanss

Saturday is Steelers/Ravens followed by Texans/Colts. Maintaining the recent trend of the ESPN Week18 double-header being one very decent game preceded by at-best marginal game.

Sunday night game is, completely unsurprisingly, Bills/Dolphins.

Decent split in the other 13 games, no-one looks to be unfairly disadvantaged this year.

NFL announces Week 18 schedule for 2023 season with Bills-Dolphins on 'Sunday Night Football' (US times, add 5 hours for us).

First time I can recall the 9pm slot having more games than the 6pm slot, 7 games to 6.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121557380#Comment_121557380

Texans v Colts should be a great game with two pretty high octane offenses. It's for a playoff place too and potentially the division if the Titans manage to beat the Jags.

They try to keep divisional games on at the same time on the final day. Bills v Dolphins can be on at a separate time because it doesn't affect divisional rankings as the Patriots will be last and the Jets third.

The only one that surprises me is the Bengals v Browns in the late window

Carcharodon

Refs mistake on Dallas game was bad Campbells ego got the better of him trying to keep on gettin 2 pointer to win, just take the point and go to overtime, i may of had a bet on Detroit lol, so i was mad !

Increasingly looking like Niners v Ravens but who knows, iam a little scared of the Rams, they still got talent and look good at times

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121560066#Comment_121560066

While I'm open to being corrected since the overtime rules changed, the 2 point conversion is seen as the better choice than going to overtime and the only reason it is generally eschewed is because of emotional reasons. 2 point conversion success rates are about 50% - there is no reason to think overtime is a better bet.

Realt Dearg Sec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121567221#Comment_121567221

Yeah and you have control over what happens. The coin toss is a matter of pure fluke and then you have to complete a full drive just to get into a position to maybe get an opportunity for a goal line attempt at a TD. Which is what you already have with the 2 pointer

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121567221#Comment_121567221

Well you really have to do stats on it.

What's your succes rate, what's the defenses success rate, what's happened on drives.

It's not just a 50/50 thing. I don't know who does the analytics or whatever it's called but in many games it's flawed.

They had it as a go for it in one game a couple of weeks ago where the pat gave a three score lead.

Carcharodon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121567221#Comment_121567221

Yea, regular season, it probably makes sense because there is a massive advantage to team that wins coin toss, I just thought that you should probably settle for OT after the refs messed up then you are pushed back after flag, seemed like it wasn’t meant to be but I do get it also

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568906#Comment_121568906

After the mess up and the penalty on the Lions, I dont think there was any analytic sources making the argument that it was a good move to try again for 2. I don't think there was even one after the Cowboys penalty brought them a bit closer. Campbell lost the head.

I'm very pro coaches being aggressive but even going for such a convoluted misdirection play in the original moment stinks a bit of thinking they were smarter than everyone else. By all means do it during the game but with it on the line there is no room for error, by your own team but also the refs, opposition etc.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572326#Comment_121572326

They got the two point conversion and it should have stood.

Saying in hindsight that it was a bad decision is just after timing. If it was rightly called a two point conversion you wouldn't be on here criticising the decision.

There's no real difference between going for that and looking to win a toss in overtime.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572326#Comment_121572326

Going again after the penalty sure. It's a much harder play.

All coaches and players think they are scheming to be smarter than the opposition. At least on that play. This way of thinking is how we've devolved into coaches whiffing on sensible 4th down plays cause they just don't want to look silly.

ArmaniJeanss

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572349#Comment_121572349

Going for it the first time was fine.

The second time (when the penalty pushed them back) is definitely sub-optimal, the chances of getting it are far less than 50/50. Take the PAT here.

The third time (when the Dallas penalty moved it forward to the 4yl) is more marginal, but at this stage you are surely running out of plays in your book.

I disagree that the first play should have stood by the way. It's harsh on the Lions, but by the rules the player wasn't eligible for the simple reason that he wasn't called eligible by the officiating crew and his number wasn't called as eligible over the tannoy. Someone on the Lions (Goff, the player in question, people on the sidelines) should have noticed this. It remains an error by the Lions even if it the root cause was the officials.

adrian522

What were the Lions supposed to do even if they did notice the officials mistake? They can't stop the play, all they can do is take a delay of game which is the same result as the penalty anyway.

I agree they can't just award the TD either as the Cowboys need to know who is eligible and who is not. The only criticism of the lions is they made the whole thing more confusing than it needed to be but overall the blame lies with the officials.

Once they called the penalty the lions absolutely should be kicking the XP. The chances of converting from the 4-7 yard line are apparently around 7%

ArmaniJeanss

Re your first paragraph, I think proceeding with the play is worse than taking the delay of game. If we agree there's no upside (it'll be illegal touch, or illegal player downfield even if you throw to a different player), then the potential downside is worse than a 5yd penalty. It could get intercepted, fumbled and recovered etc, in which case the Cowboys decline any penalty. It becomes the reverse of a free-play? I may be wrong about how this would be ruled though.

I'm slightly surprised that listening for 'xx has been declared eligible' over the tannoy isn't part of someone's job on these plays. Maybe it's just that this mess hasn't happened before, and it will become something for the offence to listen for going forward.

Christy42

The refs thought 70 was eligible so why didn't his number get called out?

I don't know if it is mandated it has to be called. It should be to help this in future.

If Goff had idea the refs didn't know who was eligible you take the delay of game to stop the risk of anything bad happening on the play. He saw his player declare and figured it was fine from there, I don't believe Goff would have snapped dit otherwise.

ArmaniJeanss

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121575033#Comment_121575033

Lions – Cowboys audio: Dan Skipper, not Taylor Decker, declared eligible (usatoday.com)

The twitter link halfway down this page. "No 70 is an eligible receiver, No 70 is eligible' is clearly the announcement.

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121572349#Comment_121572349

Look at the scoreboard - they didn't get the two point conversion. We've no idea whether the Cowboys would have played their defense differently if the refs had announced the other player as eligible.

I'm not criticising him for going for two initially, I'm criticising him for the type of play he went for. When you start bringing in the penalties it was dumb to go for 2 as there is a real difference between taking two and a coin toss.

There is a difference in the redzone at end of the game with it on the line and calling a standard or a trick play. You rarely see the latter at the end of games in the red zone because there are too many moving pieces, including refs.

You call the play with the highest likelihood of success and you're not in a good place if you're relying on trick plays.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121575345#Comment_121575345

The referee was at fault for the play not counting. He reported, that's now accepted by everybody.

They got it and it was wrongly taken away.

Would you be here talking about this if the referee did his job right?

And saying that the Cowboys might have done things differently is ridiculous. The Lions could have went another way if the Cowboys did.

This is all in hindsight by you taking the result into the equation.

adrian522

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121577652#Comment_121577652

Don't think its ridiculous to think the cowboys defend the play differently if they know 68 is eligible. The defense have a right to know who the eligible receivers are and will react accordingly, don't think that's ridiculous at all.

The best the can do is replay the down, they can't simply award the TD.

ArmaniJeanss

Week 18 TV Fixtures aka For the Last Time.

A bit meh really, Texans/Colts and Bills/Dolphins obviously massive h2h games for qualification or seeding, but for the other three games it depends on how deep into the well the Ravens, Titans and Bears are willing to go in their role as spoiler.

Outside the TV slate looks like we could have the first proper 'snow bowl' in a few years - at Foxboro for the visit of the Jets. Pity there's not more at stake.

Saturday

Steelers at Ravens 9.30pm Sky Sports

Late Saturday/early Sunday

Texans at Colts 01.15am Sky Sports

Sunday

Jaguars at Titans 6pm Sky Sports

Bears at Packers 9.25pm Sky Sports

Late Sunday/early Monday

Bills at Dolphins 01.20am Sky Sports

Realt Dearg Sec

That game is the bears super bowl, if they aren't going to the bottom of the well the whole coaching staff and the quarterback will be updating their CVs on the flight home.

adrian522

I loved Justin Fields saying there's nothing to do in Green Bay except watching football :)

Realt Dearg Sec

And Aaron Rodgers stirring the pot too, said "if we always win is it really a rivalry?"

Neither of them are wrong...

Ohmeha

What a horrorshow by Minshew and Goodson at that late 4 & 1 to cost the Colts though the Texans' rejuvenation this season to secure a play-off spot is well deserved

paulie21

Looks a fumble in Panthers game

Itssoeasy

The eagles are pathetic. That was a terrible half of football.

adrian522

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121584967#Comment_121584967

Siriani will have some serious questions to answer if they don't beat Tampa next week.

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121585038#Comment_121585038

i don’t see how they will beat tampa next week based on the last six weeks of the season. How bad was desai that Matt Patricia was seen as the better option ? I wouldn’t be upset if siriani was shown the door after next week. He’s imo lost the locker room.

adrian522

Yeah, looking like he was very dependent on the 2 coordinators he lost in the offseason

Happy Birthday to LaMVPar Jackson.

CMcsporty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121585161#Comment_121585161

Should go to an Irishman…McCaffery!

ArmaniJeanss

LA Rams at Detroit a confirmed fixture now - am excited. Also Green Bay at Dallas and Philly at Tampa Bay. AFC side still has a few pieces to fall into place.

I've a theory that the Monday wildcard game will always be a 4v5 game as they have least effect on the rest of the schedule so can be left until last. So I reckon Philly Tampa will be that slot, with the alternative 4v5 game of Cleveland Houston not considered as attractive. Though I like that latter match-up myself and it should be a nice time for us (first up Saturday I'd guess?). Idle speculation which may look silly by the morning.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121585243#Comment_121585243

We don't care where those AFC pieces fall.

Lamar Jackson vs the NFC...

I've emptied the Credit Union and remortgaged the house.

eagle eye

The Bills having been making a mess if it all night on offense. Great drives down the field and then in the red zone two picks and a fumble by Josh Allen. They went in when 14-7 and no score in the third quarter.

Then on a punt Denote takes it all the way and we are tied up at 14 apiece.

I've a feeling the Bills are going to do it.

eagle eye

Miami went three and out and then a great drive down the field and a touchdown for the Bills. 21-14 Buffalo.

AbusesToilets

Good win for the Bills in the end, fairly comfortable in the end. Sets up some nice games next week.

Too early to call Lawrence a bust?

AFC

1) Ravens (bye)

2) Bills vs 7) Steelers

3) Chiefs vs 6) Dolphins

4) Texans vs 5) Browns

Some very nice games there.

cosatron

some great match ups, stafford back to detriot,

gb at dallas agianst mccarthy, i could be wrong but i don't think green bay have lost a game in the new dallas stadium.

browns and texan- its a pity watson is injured.

chief and dolphins- hills homecoming

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121585132#Comment_121585132

They've been a mess all season, the narrow one score wins early in the season papered over issues. They have the talent to still come right but there is basically no evidence this season that they have the coaching. They're lucky they're playing by far the other worst NFC playoff team and potentially have a route to get a home divisional round game if things fall right for them.

My reading is also that he has lost the locker room. Just don't see the fight from them at all over the last few weeks. Hurts came out yesterday with some standard QB talk about not getting too low or too high but then compare that to his HC who was screaming at the Chiefs fans just before their season fell apart. Hurts, while still on his rookie contract, had to tell him to tone it down during the Super Bowl last year. Never seen a HC who knew where the camera was more than him, which is fine when the team is winning but cant be good for the locker room when they aren't and he seems to have zero answers.

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121585161#Comment_121585161

Absolutely hilarious that no team even tried to speak with him when they could have last offseason.

The teams who are stuck with the mid or lower tier QB carousel deserve everything they get for refusing to break from other owners.

hynesie08

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587365#Comment_121587365

Baltimore would have just matched it and then you show your hand as a team willing to overpay for a QB.

Lamar is great but the Commanders/Panthers/Bears with Lamar aren't suddenly SB contenders, and the teams favoured for a deep run have their Guy.

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587724#Comment_121587724

So what if the Ravens matched it? At the very worst you're making a potential rival for the SB spend more cap on their QB.

Every team is willing to pay for the right QB - it isn't news. With the cap going up it is hard to overpay a former MVP, who is likely winning another MVP this year. If Watson was having the season Lamar is having this year there would be very little being said about his contract.

Those teams you listed might not be SB contenders this year but every single one of them would be in a far better place to build towards one if they'd gotten Lamar. There are a bunch more, like the Falcons would be looking forward to a home playoff game and Arthur Smith would still have a job.

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588047#Comment_121588047

It wasn't just the Falcons where HCs were fired and by my count 3 of those GMs are also gone

https://twitter.com/JoshTheAthletic/status/1744382738604368382

ArmaniJeanss

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121589820#Comment_121589820

Raiders thought they had something in McDaniels/JimmyG combo.

Panthers had already moved up to No 1 draft pick to nab a QB and felt that 4 years from cheap Bryce Young contract was the way to go.

Falcons thought they had something in Desmond Ritter, again rookie contract, put expensive pieces around him etc.

Obviously they all turned out to be wrong (Bryce Young might still be a long-shot possibility to be some sort of success) but they were all at-the-time valid reasons not to look at Lamar. As said they were wrong and coaches sacked.

Washington definitely the most relevant of your examples. Probably an opportunity they regret, but maybe the opening came just too soon for the new ownership who wouldn't have wanted to make a huge error (perhaps they looked at the way that new ownership at Denver had rushed into poor Russell Wilson deal).

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121590915#Comment_121590915

Look at the niners. They moved up to get a QB in the draft so they could get rid of Jimmy G. That didn't work out for them and they had to hold onto Garoppolo. When he and Lance both got injured they decided to give Mr Irrelevant a go and it worked out great. That's just luck, he wasn't even considered good enough to be ahead of Lance. He'd probably have been cut at some stage in the future only for the two ahead of him getting injured.

As regards Washington, it looks like they have a really good one in Howell. Get an offensive line and he'll be a serious weapon.

He threw for nearly 4000 yards and he was sacked 65 times.

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121590915#Comment_121590915

There are always excuses not to do things.

None of those stand up to any scrutiny. Panthers made the trade up after Lamar was tagged. The others chose Jimmy G, Ritter, and Howell over a former MVP. Each of those three were benched during the season while Lamar is likely winning an MVP.

It is a huge mess up by HC, GMs, and Owners.

Foxtrol

I'm surprised by how many seem surprised by the Vrabel firing (outside of them not trying to get something in a trade for him). Presume his history as a player and his cult figure personality is a part of it.

He is a good coach but hasn't shown he is anywhere close to top tier. Would be delighted to bring him in if my team was a basket case, as he'd build a great foundation and culture, but not if I wanted to go win Super Bowls.

He clashed with the new GM and his demands on trying to compete while rebuilding ending in failure and setting the team further back. Presume the owners must have had a post season discussion with him and he wasn't for turning on his approach and demands so the only answer was to show him the door.

eagle eye

Vrabel is an excellent coach whose been stuck without a decent QB for his whole time in Tennessee.

I think he'd be great for the Chargers

Realt Dearg Sec

Word going around is harbaugh to the chargers.

There really are a lot of very good HC candidates this year. From a bears perspective that makes it even more frustrating that it looks increasingly likely that we are going to go with Eberflus again, while drafting a new QB. This was what they did with Trubisky and Fields before: drafted them high with very little support pieces around them and put them in with a lame duck HC who everyone knows is on the way out. Looking like they are going to burn a unique opportunity (1st pick and another top ten pick, loads of cap space, very good defensive personnel to allow you to focus on offense) on a HC with no plan for the offense.

Don't be shocked to see them then fire the GM and HC next year and force whoever replaced them to accept the current QB. And then wonder why we never get anywhere.

I hope I'm wrong about all of this, they haven't actually announced anything regarding Eberflus yet. But just thought I'd share what it's like supporting an organization that's incapable of learning anything.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121595070#Comment_121595070

What do you think they should do? Stick with Fields and buy more future picks?

This is a very strong QB class. There's guys who'll be going in the third round who'd be very early picks in a lot of draft classes.

Fields seemed to improve a lot towards the end of the season, it's a rough decision to move on from him I think.