Shannon LNG terminal plans rejected by ABP

antoinolachtnai

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121123935#Comment_121123935

How will is building an LNG terminal make supplies of gas any less scarce when Europe has more LNG terminals coming online than it knows what to do with?

I didn’t say that it would make prices rise. It would make bills rise. What is this about Eirgrid? Building an electricity plant? These are just capacity contracts. The developers can and will bid to build this if it is commercially workable. It doesn’t require an LNG terminal.

The problem here is that the people proposing this are planning to pay for it with energy consumers’ money, not their own. Why waste consumers’ money on something that won’t bring them any benefit that anybody can explain, other than a warm fuzzy feeling?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121123976#Comment_121123976

unlike what some would have you believe it’s not as simple as just realising the benefits of renewable energies but that we have to have capacity to harvest and store. This will take time.

however while we wait I suppose we are just to endure the ever colder winters.

antoinolachtnai

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121123929#Comment_121123929

As it happens the interconnector cannot be reversed. But even if the flow could be reversed , LNG sourced gas would never ever flow in the easterly direction for the simple reason that Britain and Western Europe have loads of LNG terminals of their own.

prunudo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121123976#Comment_121123976

And shoulder vast amounts of the population with further debt to retro fit houses that aren't suitable for electric heating. I live in a house, built '07, c1 ber, big mortgage, by all accounts its not viable to install a heat pump, so whats the alternative that I'm meant to rush to asap.

If wind generation continues to grow, electric vehicles become the norm, why the rush to remove natural gas from heating houses.

antoinolachtnai

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124030#Comment_121124030

The rush is that natural gas will get very expensive as carbon pricing drives it up. At present the carbon price on home has is only half what it is for electricity and industry (which is set through an auction). As the cap on emissions is reduced prices will go higher and higher.

prunudo

So its an administrative issue that can be amended. They're essentially pricing people out of the ability to heat their homes without a clear alternative.

Pekarirska

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121120875#Comment_121120875

Fair play to you!

Argumentative and clear reply supported with numbers. Great to know how Iceland gets their electricity from renewables only ;-)

Wish more posts were like yours and thank you for your time!

antoinolachtnai

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124064#Comment_121124064

It’s not an administrative issue, no. It’s a legal issue and there is a strong democratic mandate from member states and the Parliament. The government in fairness is trying to make it more viable to switch. In the end though, homeowners will have to take some responsibility.

We could use the cost of an LNG terminal to help householders upgrade tens of thousands of homes.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124030#Comment_121124030

Talk to me about what your plan is for when the gas runs out or becomes too expensive?

prunudo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124282#Comment_121124282

You were the one that wants us to do something asap, so tell me what this great viable alternative that I'm meant to heat my house with. And this isn't a solo problem, there hundreds of thousands, if not over million homes that need to move away from fossil fuel heating. What is this great plan that you are so keen for everyone to follow.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124296#Comment_121124296

You answered that already earlier yourself

Cordell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124282#Comment_121124282

What about when our sun goes supernova?

Gas and oil will eventually run out, and if by that time we don't have a plan we will be fked. End of civilization fked. But it's crazy that we choose to fk ourselves now out of fear of what may happen in the future. We have a short term problem, and we do have a short term solution. The sane thing to do would be to use the sort term solution to buy us time to look for alternative long term solutions.

antoinolachtnai

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124329#Comment_121124329

What exactly is this short term problem that we have that a commercial LNG terminal is the solution to?

prunudo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124304#Comment_121124304

So your solution, which you want to move to asap, is to indebt a large proportion of the population further by installing an inefficient energy system. Doesn't sound very green does it? Until new tech arrives it is pointless installing heat pumps as a heating solution in the vast majority of houses that currently use fossil fuel.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125181#Comment_121125181

I'd love to see how you work out something with a COP of 1.5-4 is inefficient when a gas boiler has a cop of 0.9

Either way, carbon tax will ensure switching is the smarter financial choice

Did you see, the govt also provide 100% funding for those less well off?

Cordell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124530#Comment_121124530

Short term problem is our dependance on fossil fuel, especially natural gas for home heating and electricity, and it's price and availability and the fact Russia controls a lot of the supply. Short term solution is to use LNG instead of piped gas.

plodder

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121123986#Comment_121123986

I didn’t say that it would make prices rise. It would make bills rise.

How exactly would a private company building an LNG terminal "make bills rise"?

What exactly is this short term problem that we have that a commercial LNG terminal is the solution to?

It's more a medium term problem than a short term problem. When the Corrib field runs down over the next ten years, we will be completely reliant on gas imported from the UK for electricity generation as the backup to renewables. We used to have a very diversified system, with oil, gas, coal, with oil and plenty of stored or stockpiled oil and coal. Is the world much more politically stable now, that we don't need a diversified and dependable fuel supply? Or is the plan to rely more on Moneypoint (coal or oil if it gets converted) and the data centres using their own diesel generators? How will that work out for CO2 emissions?

ECO_Mental

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125295#Comment_121125295

Even better.... Ryan has approved the purchase and use of diesel generators (300 MW) for this winter and probabaly the next few winters.

Two large emergency electricity generators sought for Dublin – The Irish Times

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125399#Comment_121125399

😂😂

Cordell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125399#Comment_121125399

You can't make this up.

So he found a short term solution but only for Dublin, the rest of the country can fk off and freeze.

batman_oh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121120875#Comment_121120875

Nah it's the same innit - literally no reason why Ireland can't do the same! 🤣

antoinolachtnai

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125295#Comment_121125295

We already have access to LNG supplies through the UK and the EU. There is now a large surplus of LNG import capacity coming on stream in Europe, something that wasn’t true three years ago. As a result having a terminal in Ireland won’t change anything.

Cordell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125558#Comment_121125558

 a result having a terminal in Ireland won’t change anything.

More supply = more better. If it wouldn't have changed anything, the why did they wanted to build it? Even if it was just for the additional bossiness and employment and taxes it would have been a plus.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125558#Comment_121125558

Europe had access to Russian gas, until it didn't. Interconnectors of all types are a really, really stupid alternatives to self-sufficiency. Anyone thinking interconnectors should be a cornerstone of any energy infrastructure is barking mad.

Calahonda52

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125558#Comment_121125558

from an energy security perspective it will give us more headroom than we have now because we don't have any LNG carriers.

We rely on two pressure pumps in Scotland to keep our NG gas going and don't think for a moment that the descendants of Oliver Cromwell would not turn it off in a heart beat

Same with our strategic oil reserves, 70% in France with no merchant navy to transport it

The pipe to the Kinsale field is too narrow to function as a meaningful reserve

Mayo is the same

Like during the crash, will will rely on the kindness of strangers

antoinolachtnai

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125305#Comment_121125305

Exactly what risk do you believe an LNG terminal in Ireland will mitigate? All the risks you describe there have been mitigated already by the extra LNG capacity already coming on stream across Europe.

We still have stockpiled oil we can rely on for electricity generation and we can buy more if we need it.

I have explained the point about how a commercial terminal would make bills rise before. If anything isn’t clear, please ask.

antoinolachtnai

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125634#Comment_121125634

Ah, you want to protect against a ‘Mad Max’ scenario in Great Britain. This is an incredibly unlikely scenario. The political and economic consequences of cutting that supply off deliberately would be extremely severe for Great Britain. The Americans would turn against them and the Inion would break up.

With an LNG terminal we are still relying on ‘the kindness of strangers’. Do you think we should buy a couple of LNG ships as well, and a gas field in the Middle East too?

antoinolachtnai

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125592#Comment_121125592

Because it would result in extra costs for energy consumers?

antoinolachtnai

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125539#Comment_121125539

But Dublin is where the shortfall is? The rest of the country doesn’t have a similar shortfall.

ECO_Mental

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125539#Comment_121125539

Thing is also that Shannon LNG plant had plans to install 120 MWh battery storage to provide grid balancing that is critical for load balancing and could/would help when the grid gets into a tight spot....

plodder

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125854#Comment_121125854

It's not clear at all. So please explain exactly how a private company building an LNG terminal would "make bills rise"?

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125854#Comment_121125854

It would do 1 job of mitigating a risk (maybe low likelyhood high impact?) of loss of connection to the UK for any reason.

The UK is not as politically stable + rational as it used to be and as we've come to expect since foundation of the state until Brexit. They hold the spigot for the gas.

Then there is possibility that there is no malice and UK (and rest of the EU) itself are just short of fuel and they fully control how much we get supplied. We are at the end of long set of pipes.

I think we should have ability to import it ourselves or if not that to at least store a decent amount of gas that would keep us going for a few months (?) but we have neither yet and no plans (afaik - non expert I admit).

The only hedge we have is some of our own supply which will be gone in a decade or so I believe. I cannot imagine we will get far with a (more completely) "green" grid for all govt./Green party promises on that timescale.

We seem to be a nation of f-ckups and fools, the politicians and electorate both, when it comes to the planning & buiilding of very dumb basic infrastructure like city bus lanes, houses and apartments, hospitals, prisons...let alone these fairly revolutionary and cutting edge things like large scale high tech battery storage, offshore wind farms in rough seas, or a hydrogen production and distribution network so am a bit pessimistic about it.

Cordell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125949#Comment_121125949

How? Using some UK terminal and then piping the gas here doesn't result in an even higher price?

Cordell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125965#Comment_121125965

You know what would have helped with that shortfall? Some gas for the power plants. Way better and cleaner and cheaper than diesel.

antoinolachtnai

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121126502#Comment_121126502

These aren’t diesel because of any shortage of gas.

antoinolachtnai

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121126491#Comment_121126491

Not really no because it uses a pipeline which consumers have to pay for through the capacity charge whether it is utilized or not.

And that is the reason a commercial LNG terminal will drive bills up. The LNG terminal will mean that the pipelines will not be used but consumers will still have to pay for their construction, operation and maintenance through capacity charges.

antoinolachtnai

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121126433#Comment_121126433

This is the Great Britain-Mad Max scenario in combination with a global supply crisis.

If global supplies get so tight that Britain breaks all their international agreements to do as you describe, risking the breakup of the United Kingdom, getting their access to storage cut off and then economic war with the EU, do you think we will be able to just order ships of LNG as we want them?

I think we need storage certainly and there does seem to be a plan for that.

The interconnectors seem to work ok. The electricity kept going last winter. MNCs are locating critical processes here. Things are really not as dire as you perceive.

Jizique

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121126593#Comment_121126593

Some of the hot-headed Brexiteers and hard core loyalists have noticed that we are utterly dependent on them - i think it was a Ben Habib tweet i saw at the weekend, but certainly this has not gone unnoticed in certain circles.

Biden won't be president forever and who know what might happen - who would have thought any of the madness of the last 7 years would have happened a decade ago.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121126593#Comment_121126593

The former is not really "Mad Max" (you kind of imply a war or a [total] political breakdown/chaos with that). It is a trade/economic war scenario involving a nasty far right UK govt., anti EU, anti Irish. On the second will admit if there's such a severe supply shock that rest of the EU + richer, larger countries than ourselves are suffering and cannot supply us, we probably won't be able to get imports either.

These people used to be on the very extreme fringes of UK politics + maybe outside Parliament but since Brexit they are a now a kind of "wing" of one of the main parties that don't look like being sent back into the outer darkness for a while yet.

I did not mean to say things are "dire" (sorry if implied that with my criticism of planning and infrastructure provision over last few govt.'s), just stating we are taking a risk. The bad scenarios are unlikely, but a bit less unlikely than they would have been back pre 2016 and pre war in Ukraine.

In case the govt. plans for removing fossil fuels from electricity generation don't go as well as hoped, would feel better if we had a non UK electricity connector (that is coming anyway I think but again there has been no urgency on getting it done) and some non UK controlled source of gas (either own resources, or import or as you say even just a temporary source for an emergency via storage).

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121123912#Comment_121123912

If there was an outage of the Moffat lines how would that tankers LNG that we’ve bought be shipped to Ireland if we’ve no terminal? 😂

Again it’s a dependence on another country and no self dependence that is the issue. (I understand we’d be getting gas from another country via the LNG but we are not allowed explore for our own gas anyway).

Cordell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121126545#Comment_121126545

The pipelines are part of an interconnect network and they can work both ways. So they can still be in use to supply gas to the UK, with the added advantage of an Irish based business.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121126530#Comment_121126530

Why then? Why are they needed now, when the gas supply is reduced?

In any case, we can make a cost argument all day long while the truth is that this was purely a political decision - see page 36

https://www.gov.ie/pdf/?file=https://assets.gov.ie/130911/fe93e24e-dfe0-40ff-9934-def2b44b7b52.pdf#page=null

Based on the misguided and misinformed anti-fracking policy which had and continues to hold Europe dependent on foreign, mostly Russian, gas.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125224#Comment_121125224

How long does it take for the upfront cost to be paid off using the savings made on a typical house when you swap a gas boiler for a heat pump?

Cordell

Depending on the case you might need new radiators, or underfloor heating, and new home insulation, or even better a new house. This attitude reeks of "eat cake you peasants!".

antoinolachtnai

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121126835#Comment_121126835

The pipelines cannot be used in both directions.

There is no demand for Irish landed LNG in GB. They have plenty LNG plants.

The generators are required because of the risk that a major generating plant goes offline at a critical time. These generators may never run at all.

Where did you get the idea that the gas supply is reduced? Gas has never been rationed (not since WW2 anyway).

Cordell

Where did you get the idea that the gas supply is reduced?

It's not a the moment thanks to LNG and other European countries and this is what drove the price back down. Last year, the demand exceeded supply and that's why the price shot up. So the more LNG terminals, the lower the change of that happening again. And it doesn't have to get that bad as to require rationing (that will be catastrophic), there is some inherent self regulation, i.e. price goes up, demand goes down (up to including people turning the temperature down and businesses going bust because of energy prices).

There is no demand for Irish landed LNG in GB. They have plenty LNG plants.

Obviously there is demand for Irish landed LNG otherwise we won't be having this conversation. And it can't be that they wanted this terminal to sell gas only on the Irish market at a higher price than gas coming through those pipes. The argument that the terminal would have resulted in higher gas prices for the Irish market is nonsense, and in any case it's not the reason for what the permission was rejected.

antoinolachtnai

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121127687#Comment_121127687

Glad you have conceded that gas is not and never was rationed. Happy you have accepted that emergency generation has nothing to do with a gas shortage. Glad you have conceded that there is now less likely to be rationing as a result of all the extra LNG plants coming online across Europe. Heartening you have conceded there is no demand for Irish landed LNG in Britain.

I never said that gas prices would go up. I said that gas bills would go up. I explained this ad nauseam.

Regarding the energy security angle

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/investing-in-fossil-fuels-is-not-the-future-green-party/

“It is important to dispel the notion, because it is false, that this project is needed for energy security,” Brian Leddin, Green Party TD for Limerick City, said.

“The draft technical analysis by Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) published earlier this year poured cold water on Shannon LNG from an energy security point of view.

“Ireland needs a strategic storage facility, not a commercially operated LNG hub, which is what Shannon LNG was intended to be.

So leasing the likes of an FSRU would suffice for the duration, then end the lease when its no longer needed, hey presto, no stranded assets or private company trying to use the ECT to force you to keep buying from them

Cordell

The conversation was never about rationing, you were the one using that word, not me. And the explanation for higher gas bills makes no sense even when repeated ad nauseam. What was going to pay for that terminal was the profit generated by selling that gas, not a levy added to the gas bills. And every terminal in Europe increases the supply in Europe and drives the price down. And even if the price goes down their profit still goes up because of the economy of scale. Win-win until the gas runs out, which is not gonna happen during our lifetimes.

prunudo

There is a big hang up in this country to industry. We don't want nuclear, but happy to be connected to UK and in time France for theirs. Gas is okay but again only in a pipe from another country, god forbid we processed it ourselves. Ev's, oh yeah they're great, just don't be mining those minerals in this country. We need buisnesses to provide employment yet its too easy to delay and ultimately scupper investment.

And its not just industry, we love the idea of green fields and food security but there is a major anti farming pr campaign going on. There is a major housing and associated services crisis, while also wanting (allegedly) to help immigrants yet housing is constantly being objected too.

A country of me feiner's, comfortable in their existence who restrict progress at every opportunity but claim its for some future greater good. Yet ignoring the issues of the present.

antoinolachtnai

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121127761#Comment_121127761

You said or implied there was a shortage of gas and that was the reason minister Ryan was procuring diesel generation. But there isn’t, wasn’t and most likely won’t ever be a shortage of gas in Ireland. The capacity charge is for the existing infrastructure which would be left unused if we had commercial LNG. It would be like owning a car but ysibg a rental car to go everywhere. The rental ride might be cheap but you still have to pay the depreciation and charges on your car egen though you never actually drive it. I can’t understand what economies of scale have to do with anything. It’s hard to get greater economies of scale than you’ll get on three giant pipes.