Nagorno-Karabakh

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121152643#Comment_121152643

Indeed. There is a distrubling little information coming out of Karabakh. Tied with perhaps only Transnistria & the breakaway regions in Georgia, this had been the most lingering post-Soviet conflicts, and despite its apparent end the media cycle's attention to it has been very muted.

An unrecognised Karabakh Armenian republic was essentially dissolved this week, yet that has been barely reported upon at all.

The Armenians choose poorly with their military protector & ally, and have been punished for picking the wrong side in this New Cold War. But that is no excuse for seeing innocent civilians & children suffer for something they've simply been born into. UN Observers (at the very least) should be based in Karabakh. Azerbaijan have legal claim to the area, but they do not have form for treating the Armenians as equals.

I remember watching Baku host the Eurovision some years ago. They over-hyped it as "the best ever" to a gaudy degree, but the message seemed to be that they wanted to be regarded as a peer within a Greater Europe (pushing that border to it's greatest extreem). If they really meant that, then they will need to show the world that they can embrace religious and ethnic diversity within their borders and not continue the cycle of pushing out anyone different...which never ends well.

Rawr

Sure enough as Pope mentioned in an earlier post:

https://www.reuters.com/world/armenia-calls-un-mission-monitor-rights-nagorno-karabakh-2023-09-24/

The Armenians are choosing to leave. With Winter setting in soon, this could become very grim.

nacho libre

You would begin to wonder if the Armenian prime minister can survive this? Putin once again showing he is the master strategist by being unable to stop this from happening. The fallout from this could embolden others, particularly the opposition in Chechnya, to have another go.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153249#Comment_121153249

Much is talked about "sports washing" with the OPEC countries trying to buy their way into the good graces of the Western world through acquisitions; but IIRC Azerbaijan has had its own dalliance in that very same tactic. Look everyone, it's just another country like the rest of us who loves Sport / Eurovision.

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153434#Comment_121153434

Leadership within Armenia proper tend to get the brunt of rage for when thing like this happen. The same happened when Azerbaijan scored victory in the 2020 War. I might argue that it's somewhat unfair of the Armenian public to blame their own government for this. What can they realistically do, beyond actually going to war with Baku over the territory? A War which they know well they would lose.

Armenia had the edge back in 1990. Their troops had much better training in the Red Army, compared to the Azeri Soviet troops who were relegated to Cannon Fodder status. When the first first Karabakh War happened, the Azeri were in such a bad state that an Armenian advance on Baku wasn't beyond possibility. 30+ Years and the disintergration of Russia has robbed Armenia of the edge they once held. They face NATO-grade armed forces on both sides of them, while they have just the remnants of their Soviet equipment to defend themselves with.

Russia is finished in this part of the world, and the next challenge will be to temper Turkey in their desire to roll over what's left of Armenia in concert with Azerbaijan, to create a contiguous pan-Turkic area.

Gatling

Not a great look for the international community,120,000 fleeing or face Genocide again and barely a peep out of anyone,

https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1706258348109144230?s=20

Jack Daw

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121155999#Comment_121155999

Armenia doesn't have a very handsome president and sexy first lady.

It's their own fault they should vote for better looking politicians if they want to get more international support.

Gatling

..

Kermit.de.frog

This is an unfortunate example of where another conflict can have serious implications elsewhere. If the Russians weren't bogged down in Ukraine no way would Azerbaijan have had the resolve to do this.

I don't think Russia have the capacity to intervene here and no one else is going to have the will either.

Sultan of Bling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121156071#Comment_121156071

At least we know Ireland will be protected thanks to our handsome president

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121156071#Comment_121156071

I think that was funnier in your head maybe.

Jack Daw

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121156121#Comment_121156121

Perhaps, but its just interesting how little attention (relatively speaking) this has gotten whereas the Ukraine situation people couldn't wait to get their Ukranian flags on there social media profiles and have Russia banned from everything instantly.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121156203#Comment_121156203

There's a couple of things to say in response to this.

The media in democracies and the general public only have so much bandwidth for foreign affairs/news. An awful lot of people pay very little attention to what is going on outside their own country unless it is something massive (like Russia's invasion of Ukraine - it is still the larger and more important event).

I don't like that social media/hashtag or issue of the hour type culture you are sneering at but think in fairness Ukraine and what is happening there is always going to be more relavant to us. Assuming here you don't live somewhere else nearer to or more affected by Armenia/Azerbaijan, or are not a disembodied global-citizen than finds the ability + time to emote and care equally about every problem and tragedy in the world.

Finally on the last (it seems nobody gives a f-ck), what do you want to see done here? What do you expect of that old chestnut that comes in for a lot of stick - the "international community" or what exactly would you like to see your country (if not Irish) or Ireland put on the line to affect what is happening? edit: (Unfortunately) I don't think words online, or the general public opinion in Europe, or criticism from politcians here is going to have that much influence on Azerbaijan. It's all very depressing.

phelixoflaherty

https://youtu.be/hd-6WweqD0Y?si=HN_qfxa2EujtaC6v

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121156071#Comment_121156071

Thanks.

pjohnson

I think its the fact Armenia has had very close ties to Russia that people arent as upset.

Russian allies arent going to be winning any sympathy contests.

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121157932#Comment_121157932

Alas, this is probably part of it. Tied with how very "contained" this conflict is by the very nature of it being within the mountains of Karabakh. It's a very "local" war, despite it being something that should concern anyone with any regard for human rights.

Couple this with the fact Azerbaijan are reclaiming land that technically & legally should be under Baku's control. But the horrid thing about all of this, is despite the legality of borders & juristiction, the conflict for Nagorno Karabakh is a perfect example of how crap people can be to each other. There were no heroes in this conflict, only victims. When the Armenians won large swathes of Karabakh back in the 90's they drove the Azeri living there from their homes and displaced them. In turn the Azeri do the same to the Armenians when they retake areas, and the grim cycle begins yet again. Two peoples who probably would have plenty in common if they weren't so blinkered by mutual hatred and focus on how race & religion seperate them.

You'd wish people would just cop on when it comes to things like this.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121157932#Comment_121157932

I also reckon the fact this has an ethnic aspect makes the whole thing messier to report than "Russia invades sovereign nation, behaves like Hollywood portrays it". Leaving aside the tankies and Mick Wallace types trying to "well, actually" about russian speakers, Ukraine is a much, much simpler Good Guy, Bad Guy story than yet another ethnic clusterfúck that only ends in massacres. I don't blame the mainstream media for ignoring this conflict: where do you begin?

nacho libre

Talk about the cat that got the cream when the Azeri president met Erdoğan yesterday. Lavrov is becoming the new comical Ali,between his pronouncements about good will gestures and the latest gem that Russia worked to secured a peace deal on this issue. When every one knows Russia was too weak to intervene. I bet he will be speaking about another good will gesture sometime next year!

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121158147#Comment_121158147

Yea, the whole "Russia backed deal" nonsense raised my eyebrow a bit there last week.

I'm thinking Russia agreed to let their troops be used as go-betweens for the Azeri army's collection of Karabakh arms, in return for a graceful withdrawal of their "peace keeping" force. The alternative might have had the Russians captured and expelled by force. Which would have underlined Russian weakness even more.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121158181#Comment_121158181

Russia is in real trouble at the moment, a destabilised South Caucasus is not at all in their favour. Ex Soviet states that are or were then under the Russian sphere of influence are looking more towards the west in an attempt to set out their future.

Turkey and Azerbaijan still to this day have denied the Armenian genocide ever happened, while Iran and Georgia have not recognised it. Armenia is a small country surrounded by it's enemies or countries that just done care. It has no choice but to try an ally itself with the EU and other western nations. (They'd probably take any help they can get)

NATO cannot go in to sort it out as A: It would annoy Turkey and B: NATO being so close to the Russian border could potentially provoke an unfavourable response from Russia (Probably the only reason Russian peacekeepers went in, in the first place).

Right now, Russia doesn't care to much about what happens down there as they have bigger problems. So long as their border remains on Greater Caucasus Mountains and their is no risk to the Volgograd gap, they aren't going to intervene. (I don't think)

circadian

I'll admit I haven't been looking at this in great depth but for all the fears of ethnic cleansing are coming from the Armenian government. I know aid has been slow at getting through or even halted but I've not seen any independent reporting on ethnic cleansing.

I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen but for all intents and purposes azerbaijan have been flirting with the west for a long time and I do wonder how much clout they have to get away with something like that without sanctions. They certainly don't carry the same weight as Saudi and the other gulf states.

timmyntc

Large explosion killed more than 20 in Stepanakert, 100s injured.

Big coincidence if nothing to do with Azerbaijan

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121160735#Comment_121160735

Do you mean the Petrol Station explosion in Stepanekert? Although I wouldn't put it past an Azeri troop getting trigger-happy with a mortar, this could also have been the result of an accident.

The Armenians are in a mad dash to flee ahead of an Azeri takeover, and it's not beyond the pale that panic at that Stepanekert petrol station might have resulted in something that ignited the fuel there.

Reports now that as many as 1/3 of Karabakh's Armenians have fled or are in the process:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66931178

bnt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121160453#Comment_121160453

In my view there is no confusion about the situation for Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. They wouldn't be there at all if Armenia hadn't taken the area from Azerbaijan in 1994. In Azerbaijani eyes it's always been occupied territory, and now they have it back. The Armenians already know they have to leave before they are forced to, and they are doing so in the tens of thousands. I would not trust anything the Azerbaijani government say about assuring the rights of Armenians: even if they mean it, the Azeris on the ground the might not take any notice of the government.

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121163879#Comment_121163879

I'd agree with you partly in the sense that throughout the conflict Karabakh had been occupied territory that Azerbaijan had the legal right to reclaim.

But as is typical with these post-Soviet frozen conflicts, it's not as simple as the Armenians getting cheeky and stealing land they hadn't the right to be on. No, the story of Karabakh is long and complex.

Through history, the mountains of Karabakh have been home to both the Armenian and Azeri peoples. This is very much where both of their worlds met, and since the middle ages their respective kingdoms had a precence in those mountains. But they could never share them. Susa for example, depsite being right beside Stefanekert was mostly Azeri until their population were expelled by the Armenians.

The Russian Empire, and then the Soviet Union, inherited the challenge of ruling the area while keeping these rival peoples from killing each other. Karabakh fell under the Azerbijan SSR within the Soviet Union, and to resolve local Armenian disquiet about being ruled by Baku, Moscow used that very Soviet creation of an "Autonomous Republic" to give the locals a sense of nationhood within another nation. However, in reality, like any "Automomous Republic" that title was a misnomer and control of Karabakh was squarely with in the hands of Moscow (or Baku if we want to make-believe that the Soviet Republics had any real say on their own policy).

The Autonomous Karabakh republic did give the Armenians the structures needed to organise and resist Baku once the Soviet Union collapsed. They rolled over areas that had been home to the Azeri and even turned the large city of Agdam (which was never Armenian) into a Ghost City for the guts of 3 decades.

Now the cycle has reversed, and Stefanekert will either become a ghost town or more likely have the signs changed to read "Khankendi" and become some kind of trophy city for Baku to show the world. Baku have the legal right to rule here, they've had that right since the end of the Cold War. But they also have the responsibility to be just actor on the international stage, and it feel it is for the world to keep them in line in this respect. Otherwise they may become drunk on their victory here.

briany

Does this at least mean a conclusion to the hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan (for now)? The expelled/fled Armenians will presumably never return, and Armenia seems to have pretty much no leverage in the situation, so what else is there to do but for Armenia to eat this loss? They have no natural allies in the region, and Russia appears to have completely abandoned them with respect to their territorial claim. Sure Russia can say it brokered a peace deal, but one which appears to be total victory for Azerbaijan.

I suppose the main question now is whether Azerbaijan decides to press on and open a corridor to its exclave.

PopePalpatine

If you think the Aliyev regime will stop at Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh, I've got a bridge across the Kerch Strait for sale.

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153249#Comment_121153249

simple explanation for the almost news blackout, a token 30 seconds or a minute on the news from an uninterested media is about it.

Remember there are innocent civilians and there are innocent civilians, it just depends on who are the ‘bad guys’ and ‘trustworthy partners’ are not the bad guys.

https://www.brusselstimes.com/257742/eu-plans-to-double-gas-imports-from-Azerbaijani

Elmer Blooker

PS. hear about the postage stamp issued by Azerbaijan, our trustworthy partners? No, I didn’t think so.

New Azerbaijani postal stamps commemorating the country’s fight against Covid-19 and the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War have sparked online outrage amid accusations of anti-Armenian sentiment.

The illustration accompanying the stamps shows a disinfection specialist standing over a map of Azerbaijan and fumigating the area of Nagorno-Karabakh — leading many to claim that ethnic Armenians in the area were being depicted as a virus in need of “eradicating”.

It’s not known what Ursula, chief of the ‘inclusive’ EU makes of this.