Storm Agnes Wed 27 Sept 2023.

Mecanudo · 27-09-2023 3:55am

That's just evil looking ...

JanuarySnowstor · 27-09-2023 4:04am

Icon just coming out looks much weaker. Barely orange category for even the most exposed areas

JanuarySnowstor · 27-09-2023 4:39am

Gfs goes the opposite way to Icon, deeper and noticeably more prolonged. Would bring most of the country into orange category

M.T. Cranium · 27-09-2023 4:41am

Satellite presentation looks well organized (low is around 49N 17W) and two buoys closest to approaching low both dropped 4-5 mb past hour, with winds picking up steadily at both (35 knots or so). I wonder then if ICON did not initialize properly? Let's see what later guidance reveals.

Low is around 49N 18W now.

M.T. Cranium · 27-09-2023 4:48am

GFS holds serve, still very strong in southwest. ICON now in doubt (here anyway). If I take a steady-state progression of where buoys are saying 35 knots, that goes to Wexford and gradient is about twice as strong in Kerry. Also central pressure stays low 970s to about 13-14z and landfall still 975 so that's if anything an upgrade?

M.T. Cranium · 27-09-2023 5:17am

Arpege had a bit of the ICON tendency to fill after 09z, not as weak as ICON ... GEM tends to look weak due to coarse scale, but I note it initialized at 975. Odd type face is due to need to copy M (froM Meteociel) as keyboard is dying. So far I lost M and h. N is getting balky too. Lucky I have a better keyboard ready to use later, anyway, I will now play the nowcast card, refuge of all confused forecasters.

Duvet Day · 27-09-2023 5:26am

Starting to get breezy here now in Cork after a dead calm night.

M.T. Cranium · 27-09-2023 5:30am

Agnes developed a fairly large eye feature (40 nm) in past few hours, waiting to see if 04z buoys are still showing previous trends, they report about 35 minutes after hour.

Data just in now, both continue to show strong development, increase of wind speeds 6 knots past hour and pressure falls continue on pace. Now over 40 knots at both.

JanuarySnowstor · 27-09-2023 5:43am

Already starting in Cork, wind gusting quite a bit

JanuarySnowstor · 27-09-2023 5:47am

Met Eireann now saying disruption likely on their text. C'mon red alert!! Your time has come

redsteveireland · 27-09-2023 5:50am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121162076#Comment_121162076

The beauty of this forum, real-time reports.

cudsy1 · 27-09-2023 5:58am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121162076#Comment_121162076

Rain has arrived

pad199207 · 27-09-2023 6:05am

Sea Area Forecast barely giving Storm Force 10

aisling86 · 27-09-2023 6:07am

I slept with the blinds open for full effect and I am now awake with the rain belting off the windows it’s almost like going through waves on a boat it’s hitting hard already!

xhomelezz · 27-09-2023 6:09am

Wind is slowly picking up in South Tipp, no rain yet..

pad199207 · 27-09-2023 6:10am

British Isles

Rapid cyclogenesis is underway across the E Atlantic and will result in an intense low-pressure system approaching the British Isles at the start of the forecast period. A moist maritime air mass will be advected north behind a well-developed warm front. Within the warm air advection regime, models indicate some marginal elevated instability in a strongly sheared environment. Instability is expected to become surface-based just south of the cold front with about 100 J/kg CAPE overlapping with very strong low-level vertical wins shear. Impressive low-level hodographs with 20+ m/s low-level shear and 400+ J/kg 0-1 SRH are indicated by latest models.

Ahead and along the approaching ill-defined cold front, some showers are forecast to develop given weak CIN and low cloud bases. Although instability is marginal, the impressive shear profile suggests that showers have a high probability to be accompanied by severe wind gusts. Additionally, low-level updraft rotation is likely to develop with any sustained storm that occurs. The combination of high low-level streamwise vorticity and low cloud bases points to the risk of tornadoes, including strong tornadoes. Main uncertainty is that the shallow convection could be too weak and short-lived to form longer-lived rotation.

As the cold front pushes east-northeast, instability and shear over the UK gets weaker, with showers and isolated thunderstorms becoming gradually less severe. Still, some severe wind gusts and tornadoes are forecast until the afternoon.

Shauna677 · 27-09-2023 6:35am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121162069#Comment_121162069

Yeah, i heard an almighty howl there about ten mins ago.

Duvet Day · 27-09-2023 6:38am

Driving conditions really bad this morning, lots of surface water and floods starting in the usual spots, very heavy rain atm.

Isotonic1 · 27-09-2023 6:42am

Very heavy rain and and strong winds on south coast near Clonakilty. Woke me up 🤣

DOCARCH · 27-09-2023 6:45am

After a quiet start, wind picking up a little now in Greystones. Gusting 20kts. Pressure dropping rapidly. 1009mb atm.

aisling86 · 27-09-2023 6:47am

Has buoy M3 gone down already! Last data 5am.

dominatinMC · 27-09-2023 6:53am

Indeed

Clamball · 27-09-2023 6:55am

Raining heavily in Douglas in Cork now with windy gusts.

Mech1 · 27-09-2023 6:57am

Our liveatc feeder has posted over in the aviation section on here that all systems are up and running for the storm.

Give him a thanks if your passing through the thread.

M.T. Cranium · 27-09-2023 6:57am

Nearby K2 is still working, a bit to southwest, a link to that is back in the thread and I'll post any interesting obs, at 0600 (05z) they showed 40 knots SE and a rapid pressure fall. Latest satellite position estimate is 49.5N 14.5W. A slight northward turn is underway now.

Storm has an extensive dry slot so don't be surprised if sun comes out during strong south winds in east-central Cork and Waterford at times.

Rikand · 27-09-2023 7:01am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121162107#Comment_121162107

That's actually 6am in current time. The buoys show time in UTC

(Didn't know myself till I went looking 😊 )

Kutebride · 27-09-2023 7:08am

All quiet Longford but that rain on radar about to hit. Passed on the morning run as the front was moving so fast. It looks like Cork no rain on netweather with the half working radar I presume.