Storm Agnes Wed 27 Sept 2023.

adocholiday · 23-09-2023 8:20pm

@pauldry That's this morning's run they haven't updated with the 12z yet. 12z is back with a direct hit

Cluedo Monopoly · 23-09-2023 9:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121147619#Comment_121147619

Ali is long forgotten but it caused havoc in Galway for about 2 hours. I saw it uproot 2 trees as I drove to work. Quite an incredible sight. For some reason I thought trees fell slowly but it was frighteningly fast. No warning and crash.

Hooter23 · 23-09-2023 10:06pm

Storms like this most of the time get more intense causing them to go more north...which usual means it gets downgraded closer to the day...if this happens this time it will only get upgraded for us 🙃

Widdensushi · 23-09-2023 10:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121148785#Comment_121148785

I just presume they are going to be further north at this stage, surely the models could be adjusted for that rather than consistently wrong?

Jim_Hodge · 23-09-2023 10:42pm

You'd wonder at the accuracy or, more importantly, the point of all these models so far out, if they don't agree and keep changing. Complex situation or not, why model when you can't get it right?

M.T. Cranium · 23-09-2023 10:43pm

Today brings a strong convergence of model solutions, towards a moderate but not damaging (on a large scale anyway) wind event for Wednesday.

We will see if it continues to look similar in next few runs, but over in e US, Ophelia is a slow mover that seems unlikely to get very close to the developing Atlantic storm off Newfoundland. The future track of TD 17 (will be TS Philippe soon) may produce a more powerful wind event for around 4-5 Oct in Ireland, too early to do more than speculate on that potential.

Dazler97 · 23-09-2023 11:13pm

Just found this thread and glad I did, my current thoughts on the potential storm is a few red warnings in the south and southeast and the rest of us in orange, why reds ? Well not only because the winds will meet the qutearia but because of the timing Wednesday mid morning, alot of people out going about their business, schools will be in also and obviously if any reds do get issued the dreaded danger to life. Also alot of power cuts, downed trees /branches, some coastal flooding with rain and tides etc

Dazler97 · 23-09-2023 11:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121148965#Comment_121148965

I seen the potential for 4th and 5th October scary if it pulls off ,of course to far out to say but can't be ruled out

adocholiday · 23-09-2023 11:16pm

The GFS just rolled out there and the latest run has a very fast moving system hitting the SW at around 7am and the strongest winds cleared to the NE by 3pm. Looks mostly orange level gusts for the affected areas. Of course this is still all subject to more change but consensus beginning to appear in terms of track and timing and more usual wind gusts.

JanuarySnowstor · 23-09-2023 11:22pm

Tomorrow will tell a lot as to how bad this system will be. It certainly has potential but as others have noted zips through the country in 5/6 hours.

aisling86 · 23-09-2023 11:46pm

One to watch for sure!

Dazler97 · 24-09-2023 12:02am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121147601#Comment_121147601

I was thinking that as well , so much for luck of the Irish

24-09-2023 1:04am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121148961#Comment_121148961

They're invaluable for raising awareness, and meteorologists seeing cross model agreement a few days out. By that logic why forecast weather at all and why try and improve our forecasts.

24-09-2023 1:06am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121149123#Comment_121149123

5/6 hours is enough to do a lot of damage. We had a day long storm last December, name escapes me, but didn't pack a punch. The short sharp ones can deliver like a knockout puncher.

M.T. Cranium · 24-09-2023 6:14am

Trend so far in 00z runs ... Euro guidance shifts south and takes strongest winds into sw England, s Wales ... NA guidance looks like earlier Euro guidance and tracks across central Ireland.

I expect a lot of frustrating changes in guidance through tonight (25:00z-06z) and clarity only by early Tuesday. Disruption is being caused by difficulties with Ophelia which wants to linger near US east coast but also shears apart and sends considerable energy downstream into the central Atlantic.

I have the feeling nothing big will happen, at least in Ireland.

tiegan · 24-09-2023 7:04am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121149343#Comment_121149343

Like Darwin!!!!!!!!!!!!

NIMAN · 24-09-2023 8:00am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121149099#Comment_121149099

You always hear about foliage on trees at this time of year, and how it heightens the chances of trees coming down.

Chris_5339762 · 24-09-2023 10:03am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121149495#Comment_121149495

I'd tend to agree just looking at the various models myself, but with the caveat that almost every low pressure seems to come slightly earlier and be slightly further north than forecast.

That could put us into windier territory.

JanuarySnowstor · 24-09-2023 10:20am

Icon weaker, here we go again with phantom storms that weaken as we get closer

nacho libre · 24-09-2023 10:28am

Met Eireann mention damaging gusts, especially in the South West for Wednesday in their texted forecast. Of course by this evening that may have changed to a normal windy day for most of us. I have a feeling this system will end up further south- some of these quick moving systems tend to do that. So parts of England and Wales could bear the brunt of this. We could have a fair idea by tonight if most of the models bring it further south

ascophyllum · 24-09-2023 11:05am

Icon gone a lot weaker, ECM way south, GFS more west and showing average wind speeds off their own scale, 130km+ off the southwest, thats Cat 1/2 hurricane speeds for a short while just offshore? So unusual the model disagreement at 70 hours out.

Meteorite58 · 24-09-2023 12:34pm

Big charts from the GFS 06Z, center of the depression running up along the West would bring in the strongest winds over Ireland.

High mean speeds also, going by these charts on the Beaufort scale it would be classified as Force 12 off the SW - Hurricane and Violent Storm Force 11 along the SW coasts and later Storm force 10 on most coasts. High mean speeds overland also of 60 to 70 km/h at times, especailly strong along coastal areas up to 80km/h + and gusting up to 130km/h in parts of Munster and up to 110km/h in other parts of Ireland, or more on higher ground. But as we have seen the models are grappling with this and still high uncertainty . ECM keeping the track crossing Ireland from a SW to NW kind of direction hence keeping the strongest winds lower to the South off the coast but also far less deep than the GFS, GFS gets down as low as 960hPa and is deepening on appoach off the SW, the ECM gets down to 970hPa and is filling as it arrives just off the SW.

ICON much tamed down than earlier runs, similar to ECM , still quite windy over Ireland but not as severe.

ARPEGE just rolling out and looking stronger than earlier runs , initially taking the track of the GFS but turns in across Ireland and leaves the East coast so this would keep the strongest winds across the Southern half of the country, showing to gust 110 km/h overland at times.

UKMO similar to the GFS but a bit lower wind speeds but still showing gusting 100km/h overland and very strong along the coasts.

ACCESS_G similar to the GFS if not as high wind speeds but still gusting 110km/h overland, very strong on some coast .

GEM a flabby looking system, much less deep with lower wind speeds well off the coast but this is very much the outlier.

I think a good chance of a very windy day for parts especially the SW, S and SE and coastal areas W and E. Chance of impacts from a storm must be considered at this stage. All eyes on the track and depth of the system and to see if the models align more.

Meteorite58 · 24-09-2023 12:37pm

Met Eireann:

National Outlook

Wednesday: A very windy or stormy day as a depression tracks northeastwards across the country with potentially damaging gusts, especially in the southwest. Widespread heavy falls of rain will lead to flooding in places. As the depression clears northeastwards later, the rain will clear with easing winds. Highest temperatures generally of 14 to 17 degrees.

Hooter23 · 24-09-2023 1:09pm

The jetstream on the latest chart carries the storm path to the north west over ireland which is the usual route...the jetstream path has to be easier to forecast this far out surely...more focus on the jetstream forecast should give a better idea of the path this far out and probably better to look at the weather charts when its only 2 days away...since the weather charts change so much🙃