Ireland v New Zealand Oct 14 Build up Thread

SaoPaulo41

Let the nerves begin

SaoPaulo41

Lowe and Hansen crucial, more so than Ryan.

Buddy Bubs

Ha, nice and quick. I'm going on Thursday for a 5 day trip!

Waiting for injury updates on Ireland but if we get our 2 wingers on the pitch we are in with a great chance. Would it be an upset to win? Maybe in world cup history it would be, NZ are always expected to win but this Ireland team are as good as they are. If not better. I'm sure nerves will get to me in a few days but looking forward to the trip and the match. I know NZers will be just as nervous for their own team.

AbusesToilets

Have NZ shown enough evolution from last June to find a way to break down our defense ? I'm not sure they have. Jordie at 12 has been excellent, but 13 is still unsettled for them. Questions remain if they have sufficient ability in the forwards to disrupt Irish rucking. Lomax being out would be a massive boost for us.

The template from Scotland is a solid blueprint for them. Disciplined, smothering defense, attacking the ruck. France made them look very ordinary and I think we can do the same.

SaoPaulo41

Weirdly enough I feel less nervous about this game than I did against Scots(that's once we have at least 1 of Lowe or Hansen)

DGRulz

It's very hard to say what NZ team will turn up. Their last convincing win against a good side was probably SA in July. Since then it's pretty much wins against a very underperforming Australia and minnows and loses to very good SA and France teams. There's part of me that says stringing wins together is all that matters and part that sees the context of some of those wins.

Their forwards aren't what the have been in the past, but their backs are excellent. If we can beat them up front we'll limit how much ball their backs see.

SaoPaulo41

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121210392#Comment_121210392

I think if we are to win ,its our superior pack which will do it.

AbusesToilets

Need the lineout on song, can't let them have easy platforms to launch any Joe specials at us.

JoeyJJ

Cannot wait the injuries are possible building up. May need to bring in a winger yet.

got a ticket on site today don’t know anyone going yet but feck it should be epic

TheRona

From a Kiwi perspective, I wouldn't be too nervous heading into next weekend, although that may change. Ireland deserve to go through after everything they've achieved over the last World Cup cycle, and it would be nice to see Ireland or France win the whole thing.

That said, I think that if NZ keep their discipline and keep men on the pitch, they should make a good game of it. They will have many more attacking threats than Scotland did, with a lot more high balls, chip kicks and crossfield kicks. Savea and Frizell should break the gain line, and the set piece should hold its own. The NZ bench will probably have players that will bring a bit of X factor to the match.

Hopefully both teams get to field full strength teams and it's an entertaining match.

StevenToast

There is no question about who are favourites....its Ireland....

The only reason there is doubt in peoples minds is because of the QF barrier and NZ are decent enough....

I actually believe it will be a comfortable enough win for Ireland...

The only team that can stop Ireland are France at home in the final....

Neil3030

Who will be 10 & 15 for NZ?

RM & BB?

fitz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121210783#Comment_121210783

Should be.

AbusesToilets

Would hope they pick Beaden over Dmac, a step down in terms of an attacking threat.

fitz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121210819#Comment_121210819

McKenzie is lethal with space, but can be flaky. BB the better option imo.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121210775#Comment_121210775

And If all 4 injury doubts are confirmed? Still think we are favourites?

StevenToast

Absolutely....

SaoPaulo41

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121210961#Comment_121210961

If Lowe and Hansen are out we won't win, if 1 is fit it's still in balance if we win

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121211020#Comment_121211020

Be more confident about Lowe. Hansen is a calf injury so that doesn't look good.

zx80

Hopefully Lowe's eye injury will prove to be a non-showstopper for him. Hansen's calf injury worries me more. Travelling to Paris via Brussels on Thursday for a weekend in the fanzone ... not Stade de France but possibly the next best thing (rain forecast, but nothing we Irish dont know how to handle).

phog

I think Hansen is more important to us than Lowe but Lowe's boot could be important.

My only concern about NZ is that Schmidt has more time again with them and even a tiny improvement might be enough for them but they're not the NZ of old either and we're better now than we have been in previous RWCs.

It's hard to see us losing this but it's New Zealand and it's knockout rugby. Head & heart says Ireland but I wouldn't bet on it.

Musicrules

This team is different than all our previous teams and they're about to prove it. No more quarter final chokes, they are the best team in the world, they are far superior to New Zealand and they will show by how much next weekend. Prediction later in the week but I'm thinking 10+ points right now.

Seadin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121211421#Comment_121211421

I agree, we are going to turn up this time with a smooth win.

bilston

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121210783#Comment_121210783

Surely will be but MacKenzie has been excellent albeit against weak opposition.

Neil3030

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121211769#Comment_121211769

Yeah I had a look back over the past few Rugby Championship seasons, and he doesn't seem to be selected for the bigger games.

bilston

To be honest, and obviously I hope I'm wrong, but I think NZ will beat us. This is probably the result of the mental scars of watching WC Q/Fs since 1991.

NZ will be incredibly motivated, they have a coach who has a good insight into our players (although our game is unrecognisable to the Schmidt era) and we have a few possible injuries.

Lowe and Hansen feel crucial.

Dave_The_Sheep

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121211806#Comment_121211806

To be honest, and obviously I hope I'm wrong, but I think NZ will beat us. This is probably the result of the mental scars of watching WC Q/Fs since 1991.

I think I'm the same. I can't get over my innate rugby pessimism.

Neil3030

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121211806#Comment_121211806

By the same token, we have a squad of players who will have good insight into how that coach might set his team up to beat us. They have also shown that they can adapt to teams on the fly.

Agreed on the injuries to Lowe and Hansen, but elsewhere I just don't see where NZ can claim a significant superiority over the Irish option. 9 and 14 perhaps. Maybe Frizell, if he gets into a rhythmn on D.

But broadly speaking, we have a superior front row, and parity at the very least in the second row, backrow and 10-15 axis. I'd argue that our midfield is superior, and if one of Lowe or Hansen play, they are an improvement on Telea (in terms of all-around play). I'd even be confident enough if JOB was going up against Telea in the air.

They edge it in attack, we have a much superior defense. We'll have home-court advantage. They'll be motivated but easily spooked. We will be confident and calm under pressure.

There are a lot of reasons to feel positive.

ersatz

I feel optimistic about this. Sure NZ can come out and play a game to beat anyone but this team knows them very well and is playing with such confidence and panache that I don’t see NZ rattle them. Schmidt’s impact is not such a great advantage either, if anything he hasn’t brought them the system consistency that’s his hallmark. That’s the least I’d have expected him to contribute but it hasn’t happened, still a few individuals who can make manic but a team that can’t deliver it consistently. To me Ireland have improved steadily and where they hit a bump against SA they figured it out and adapted on the fly. They demolished Scotland in 40 and eased up.

SaoPaulo41

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121211806#Comment_121211806

If we have 1 of Lowe and Hansen we may and only may be OK. If both gone I don't see how we win. Hansen vital to attack and Lowes left foot is huge ( plus his physicality) Anyway if I was either of them I would be breaking my bollix to be OK and fight through any pain to play.

Neil3030

I actually like @leakyboots idea from the other thread:

Crowley to 15, Keenan and JOB to 11 and 14 (for the worst case scenario of Lowe, Hansen and Earls all out).

Pretty much the best we could do.

SaoPaulo41

If we have to call up a winger or back 3 I would choose in this order

1) Balacoune(apologies if spelt wrong)

2) Larmour

3)Stockdale

4)Conway (yep I know he has been injured ages)

4(Nash)

Dave_The_Sheep

All being fit, Baloucoune would be my first choice as well.

leakyboots

Conway was injured for the last Munster match so not sure on his fitness. Nash would be the most error-free of the above imo but a longer odds bet... I'd love to see Balacoune get it, I'd have him at 14 and Hansen at 11 for Lowe in an ideal team.

Hopefully it won't come to it, I hate seeing players World Cups ending in injury, it's a real once in a lifetime (or a couple more if you're very, very lucky obviously) opportunity

threeball

I dont think NZ have shown anything so far that would have me overly worried. Yes they batter the minnows but the first game against France was poor fare from both sides and NZ still were soundly beaten.

The Schmidt factor might possibly be a negative for a team like NZ. Their best bet is to be as adventurous as possible with ball in hand while Schmidt is very Conservative. Their front 5 will not batter their way through the Irish defence and they don't have the South African power to have us committing more than we need to at the ruck, to create the space they need for their backs. Their best bet is to try and move us all round the pitch as much as possible, looking for the opportunity to get a mismatch and an offload in the tackle.

Provided we don't bring any baggage into the game then I'd expect an Irish win.

lbj666

We had a game to figure them out last year...and discipline helped get back into that series . The last game in the Aviva we dominated but gave up answer piece try the like they have down to a fine art now ..and a chip over the top try created by Jordan that there's not much you can do about.

I am curious to see how they defend they are a lot more passive then SA but it was clear from the Maories game in the Rds they were testing blitzing up on that diamond shape.

We've to be ready for their purple patches and manage those situations where their tails are up, particularly at restarts. Bend don't break. They are very capable of doing what they did in the later 20mins in the first test again.

Last year they were a team of Individuals trusting they would create enough from talent alone to win with some very naive defending..they are a different proposition now.

Ireland are more battle hardened at this point but that doesn't count for much if chasing shadows.

I know this is a very emotionally level Ireland team but it's "to the well" time, we've kept it topped up for a long time now.

snotboogie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121211989#Comment_121211989

I’d also love to see Baloucoune but he wasn’t even in the training squad. I think it would 100% be Stockdale except he is just back from injury. I wouldn’t be surprised if they went for Nash.

AbusesToilets

Osbourne was in the squad too. I'd call him or Nash up before Stockdale

Dubinusa

If we are down both wings and Ryan, I will be pessimistic. But, this team are warriors....

pickarooney

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121211804#Comment_121211804

He was in Japan and not selectable for a few years.

Buer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121210332#Comment_121210332

NZ are the one team that has been able to break down our defence. They scored 11 tries against us in three tests last summer. They're fairly lethal in attack. France beat them up but they were still by far the more dangerous team in attack for the opening 50 minutes scoring two lovely tries and really should have had at least one more in the first half.

The question is whether the continued progress of our defence will shut them down and have they managed to make progress up front to match us at the breakdown.

Our error count really needs to be as low as possible. Putting any ball down or turning over easy possession can be fairly ruthlessly punished.

We're the better team but NZ have the tools to beat us. We're going to need a serious performance. It was brilliant that we got to empty the bench so early at the weekend. Guys like Beirne, Porter, Furlong and POM will be fresh enough now having had only 48 minutes of rugby in a few weeks.

Zeugnis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121212293#Comment_121212293

Agree. Think it's unlikely we'll need to replace both wingers. Osborne and Nash have both been reliable in terms of what they've faced so far, and Osborne offers positional flexibility and a big boot.

Of the injury concerns, I'm most worried about Hansen due to the creative contribution he makes, think our backline loses a dimension without him. Anyway, here's hoping that the injuries aren't as severe as we all dread. And get Healy into the camp already...

FrancieBrady

Doesn't sound from Morning Ireland that Lowe's, Hansen's, Earls, injuries are insurmountable. We know Henshaw won't be ready for NZ.

So Ryan seems to be the big worry with a broken hand.

A bit of rare luck for this team at a World Cup would be nice?

threeball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121212293#Comment_121212293

I don't think you can have Stockdale and his propensity for missed tackles vs the AB's

Paul Smeenus

Stockdale, Stewart and Prendergast were the last three to be sent home - I'd assume they're first back in.

Buer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121212565#Comment_121212565

Excactly. There appears to be a fairly clearly defined pecking order based on selections to date.

Baloucoune won't be in the conversation at all. He wasn't in the training squad over the summer so is essentially not in the mix. I'd imagine it's Stockdale, Nash, Osborne in that order.

Right now, I'd guess that there will be no call up though. The reports yesterday were generally fairly ok on Lowe and Earls so I'd expect at least one of them to be available if not both with JOB backing them up and McCloskey retaining the 23 jersey (which could be Earls too if now fit).

Seadin

When will we know for certain about the players and who is available of the potential injury list?

If there are other players to come in they would want to know fast and get them up to the speed of play for the weekend. Such a pity we have this dilemma going into a QF especially against NZ. Hopefully we can pull off a win and make history. Surely this is motivation for the team.

thomas anderson.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121212585#Comment_121212585

We always seem to have this dilema though. How may minutes has Henshaw played so far?

Zeugnis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121212581#Comment_121212581

I'd be amazed if McCloskey is named again at 23. Our backline rejig yesterday worked ok thanks to Bundee adapting/tackling well at 13 and JGP putting in a good show on the wing. Wouldn't like to see us forced into that formation against NZ.

ionadnapokot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121210371#Comment_121210371

That's because you wasted your nerves on a waste of a team!

I had the feeling that this Ireland side were destined to meet NZ after the draw was made.

Its laughable to hear NZ talk of revenge!!

Sexton, Murray, Ringrose, Furlong, vdF, POM & co have had 4 years of pain eating at them after the embarrassing capitulation in 2019.

Ireland are the better side now but I'm nervous as hell because this game is so tight it could all be decided on the bounce of a ball.

Buer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121212627#Comment_121212627

That's the risk we always take though when we have a centre at 23 and that has long been the approach. It isn't anything to do with McCloskey specifically. If Henshaw was there, the exact same thing would have happened aside from Henshaw going to 13. Ringrose and JGP would still have been moved to the back three.

I think Farrell might prefer Earls in the 23 overall though but I wouldn't hazard a guess. I think it's very tight between McCloskey, Earls and JOB for that role generally.