NBA 23/24:season

Corvo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122333433#Comment_122333433

Lakers getting DeRozan brings back memories of a lack of spacing all over again but could carry the offense while LeBron sits.

Still seems like a bit of a disaster waiting to happen.

LuckyLloyd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122333471#Comment_122333471

Can Gabe Vincent be healthier, can Vandy be healthy, can Reddick put out more logical rotations, etc

They can tell themselves a story, but I expect they are ~.500 at the deadline and looking to make a major move again.

Osmosis Jones

I don't think there are any moves the Lakers could make to become contenders, their range is play-in positions imo.

Corvo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122333487#Comment_122333487

Even with all that, law of averages says that LeBron or AD are gonna go down at some stage.

LuckyLloyd

Yeah look, no arguments here. LeBron and AD were as healthy as they are going to be last year, they likely miss way more games between them this year.

Look LeBron at 40 plus an AD who has lost his jump shot and is showing decline as a disrupter at the rim: there really shouldn’t be any expectations here.

Osmosis Jones

AD is a great player but I remember the talk/hope being how after year 2 or 3 in LA he would continue to get better which would compensate Bron getting older. He never really made it his team in the end (granted it's not his fault he's not LeBron James). Starting to seem like by the time LeBron retires AD will be one of the league's old men.

Ultimately they did win a championship together so it's all worth it.

pjohnson

Already saw tweets saying DeRozan is likely to just loose this off season.

He'll probably have to take an MLE or some other kind of exception offer for a year.

Or try a sign and trade but thats insanely complicated because Chicago can only take like 12m salary back before hitting one of the tax aprons so a cap space 3rd team (currently only Jazz/Pistons/Spurs) would be needed and they would want picks from the team getting DeRozan and those same picks would also be wanted by the Bulls themselves.

LuckyLloyd

LeBron has signed a 1 + 1 for the max so that’s that. No DeRozan or anything else.

pjohnson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334698#Comment_122334698

Knecht and Bronny replace Prince and Dinwiddie lol.

Osmosis Jones

They could still make a trade right? I'm somewhat invested in Jerami Grant to LA.

Corvo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334698#Comment_122334698

So it was Klay or nothing then really. As you said earlier, .500!

pjohnson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334765#Comment_122334765

Supposedly Harden (never going to happen) and oddly enough Valanciunas were the other two. Valanciunas was gettable for MLE but the Wizards moved quicker it seems, so the Lakers just completely bottled it.

LuckyLloyd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334732#Comment_122334732

They have their 1sts and some expiring money to move, but my guess is it will happen at the trade deadline rather than now.

LuckyLloyd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334709#Comment_122334709

In theory, Vincent and Vandy are effective replacements for each relative to the team they were down the stretch last season.

Look it's not good, but hard to win with AD and LeBron on those contracts. The miracle to date has been LeBron's contract not proving awful. The next injury could be effectively career-ending, and hugely unlikely AD plays 70+ games. So not much to say really. They had a narrow path to being better, but honestly, I don't think Klay would help them, he seems cooked to me. Valanciunas makes little sense given AD has lost his jumper and they do very similar things as the roll man, etc.

So DeRozan…sure, as a proxy for LeBron missing games. But he probably didn't want a bench role.

The real story here is the Lakers were running back the WCF core group for effectively two years last offseason. That seems a poor bet in retrospect, but there is a small question over it given the lack of health from Vincent / Vandy and the awful coaching from Ham. We'll know a lot by Christmas.

pjohnson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335381#Comment_122335381

They had James at the 5 for spells last year as Wood and Hayes were awful behind Davis. The Lakers generally only survive when Davis is on the court when he sits they struggle badly. Valanciunas would have been somewhat able to deputise for Davis without having to use James as a 5. The fact Valanciunas does very similar things to Davis would actually have been his entire appeal.

LuckyLloyd

One thing I will say about where the Lakers are is it sets up well for the post-LeBron future. I expect this to be a huge area of media speculation and pressure in January if they are near .500, but as is they have $33.6m in expiring contracts:

D'Lo: 18,692,307

Wood: 5,745,889

Reddish: 4,628,946

Hayes: 4,628,946

With another $30m expiring between Rui and Vincent in 2025. And they own all their picks from 2026 on.

Knecht, Christie, Vandy and Reaves should retain a certain amount of value plus have improvement within their range of outcomes.

So:

• Pelinka has some wiggle room with $33m expiring and picks to do a trade at the deadline if they are contending
• If one or both of LeBron / AD are banged up and it becomes a lost season then they move into a very decent position from 2025 on

It's quite obvious when you take a look at their situation, that the interests of the Lakers and LeBron may start to diverge if his play drops off. IF (and it's a big IF) his play maintains as a 40-year-old, then expect a lot of passive-aggressive pressure to raid the cupboard in February. And I know everyone here loves that! :)

LuckyLloyd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335413#Comment_122335413

I think that makes sense, but essentially the sell to these guys (DeRozan similarly makes sense for when LeBron is out) is for them to be most impactful if LeBron / AD isn't available. For ~MLE money. Hard enough sell I think. If LeBron or AD are available those guys are very hard to fit imo.

LuckyLloyd

Didn't see anyone mention it, but surely serious questions should be asked about Denver? Not opening the pocket book to make sure on KCP creates a big hole in their lineup, and there doesn't seem to be any reason for it other than ownership cheapness. I feel like it's fair to ask if they have done enough to supplement Jokic's peak.

pjohnson

Spurs getting even tastier and arguably the biggest winners in DeRozan deal to Kings. CP3 can play the paint with Sochan and Wemby, or fire it out to Vassell or Barnes at the arc.

LuckyLloyd

They should be a playoff team, assuming Wemby’s health and some progression.

eagle eye

Popovich built a championship winning team around David Robinson, then around Tim Duncan and he'll do it now with Wemby. All he needs is the gifted big man to succeed.