November 2023 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (average mean temp for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon) for November 2023. The 1981-2010 average is 7.2.
2. Predict the MAX temp at any of the 25 official locations listed daily on the met-ie website.
3. Predict the MIN (details same as above)
4. Predict the PRC (percentage of normal rainfall at eleven locations including the five in part one above and also Malin, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown, Cork and Valentia.)
5. Predict the SUN (percentage of normal at six locations around Ireland).
6. BONUS _ Predict the location to report maximum rainfall (precip) in Nov 2023, and the percentage of normal it represents (no actual value is required), at any of the 25 regular reporting sites on the met-ie website (mm) during Nov 2023. See my forecast below for an example of an answer to bonus. If your selection is max for total precip but not percentage, your lowest possible score is 3/5 for percentage portion. Scoring except for that detail will be 5/10 for location based on ten top ranked percentages (1, 2, 3-4, 5-7, 8-10), and 5/10 for percentage based on correct location's percentage (not your location's percentage unless you select correct location). Percentage scores based on rank order adjusted to range of forecasts. If everyone predicts a narrow range, scores will run 3/5 to 5/5, if a wider range, it could go as low as 1/5. No 0/5 scores will be awarded for bonus, superbonus will be available (5, 5 will get 2 sb, 5,4 or 4,5 will get one sb).

M.T. Cranium _________ 7.3 _ 16.8 _ -3.2 _ 202 _ 085 __ 345% J-Castle

NormaL _____________ 7.2 _ 17.5 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 150% and location would be random for % so NormaL will get 3/5 for location.

(explanation, for a month with 100% of normal rainfall, random distribution or regional differences would be expected to produce one location at 150% of normal. A wet month that averages 200% will likely have one location well above that, as I predict. In my case, Johnstown Castle's normal Nov precip is 115.3 mm, my contest entry of 345% implies a total of 3.45 x 115.3 or 398.9 mm at that location. If a drier inland location wins at 360% but J-Castle has high actual precip, I would get 3/5 for percentage even if otherwise it should be less. If it is worth 4/5 or 5/5 I get that instead. And your guess has the same protection if your location is also wettest).

Be sure to predict a percentage and not an amount, if it looks like an amount I will convert it to % using data listed below ... a prediction of 200% means twice amount listed below, 100% would be amount listed below. For a lot of locations, a percentage is not going to be a lot different from an amount. For mountdillon at 102.4 mm, 200% would be 204.8 mm. But if you select a wet location, a forecast of "200" will be interpreted as 200% and it would be 348.6 mm for Newport, or 338.6 for Valentia. A forecast will only be interpreted as an amount if mm is added -- feel free to do that if you don't want to work out a percentage, I can do it for table of entries.

Normal Nov precip values are given as follows on website:

New 174.3, Val 169.3, mace 150.8, Knock 134.2, Bel 134.0, Fin 128.6, mark 128.4, Cla 122.7, At 120.3, S Isl 120.1, Cork 120.0, JC 115.3,

malin 108.6, moore 105.4, mtd 102.4, bal 95.3, RocP 95.0, Shan 94.1, Gur 89.8, mul 88.1, OP 85.9, dun 84.0, PP 75.6, Cas 73.7, Dub 72.9.

(note average of our eleven locations for PRC is around 114 mm)

As a quality control check, your bonus prediction should be around 50 to 75 per cent higher than your PRC forecast. If it's lower, your bonus forecast is out of whack with your PRC forecast. It could be any value higher than PRC depending on how uneven you expect the rainfall distribution to be.

The deadline as always is 0300h on 1st of month with late penalties of one point per four hours or portion, increasing to one point per hour after 1500h 2nd.

200motels

200motels-------------- 7.4--- 15.1--- -1.8------ 170---- 70---- 245 Valencia

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _________ 7.0 _ 16.2 _ -3.9 _ 150 _ 080 __ 240% Cork Airport

pauldry

Pauldry _________ 6.7 _ 17.4_ -5 _ 155 _ 090 __ 350% Cork Airport

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _________ 7.0 _ 17.2 _ -3.2 _ 138 _ 095 _ 215% Cork Airport

Artane2002

Artane2002 _____________ 7.5 _ 15.7 _ -3.2 _ 160 _ 080 __ 250% Cork Airport

dasa29

Dasa29 _________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ -3.5 _ 150 _ 090 _ 200% Valencia

John mac

john mac _____________ 7.5 _ 18.5 _ -3.8 _ 120 _ 98 __ 150_170% Newport

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad_____8____16.0___-5___150___85__230 %Cork Airport

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121300992#Comment_121300992

350% there would mean November would have a rainfall total of around 420mm at Cork Airport breaking its record for all-time wettest month back in Dec 2015!

sunflower3

Sunflower3_________ 7.4_ 16.4_ -4.8 _ 140 _ 085 __ 245% Valentia

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 7.7 ___ 16.3 ___ -3.7 ___ 120 ___ 90 ___ Valentia 185%

Gonzo

Gonzo _________ 7.5 _ 16.1 _ -3.8_ 166 _ 078 __ 232% Cork Airport

esposito

Esposito_________ 7.8 _ 16.9 _ -2.8 _ 170 _ 090 _ 320% Cork Airport

rameire

Rameire_________8.1_____15.4_____-2.0-______180_____65_____220 Moore Park

waterways

waterways _____________ 7.2 _ 16.5 _ -4.2 _ 159 _ 097 __ 210% Roc P

mrskinner

Skinner____7.5____17____-5____175____89____180%Valentia.

Tae laidir

Tae laidir __________ 7.9 _ 17.3 _ -3.3 _ 141 _ 88 __ 205% Oak Park

Joe Public

Joe Public _________ 7.4 _ 15.8 _ -4.1 _ 110 _ 93 __ 189% Valentia

adam240610

adam240610_________ 7.4 _ 17.2 _ -3.8 _ 120 _ 091 _ 179% Cork Airport

appledrop

Appledrop___7.0__16.7__-4.2___157__78__220%Cork Airport

mr.stonewall

Mr Stonewall___7.1___16.6__-3.8___142___78__152% Valentia

pauldry

On the back of what sryan has said about Cork I'd like to change my prediction to 200% Newport and not 350% Cork. Its hardly going to be as wet there 2 months in a row.

dacogawa

Dacogawa _________7.6__16.8__-4.0__170__082__ 270% Cork Airport

Jpmarn

Jpmarn  _________ 7.5 _ 16.5 _ -3.8 _ 160 _ 090__ 250% J-Castle

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for November 2023

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Max prec % loc'n

Rameire ______________8.1 _ 15.4 _ -2.0 _ 180 _ 065 __ 220% Moore Park

Cornerstonelad ________ 8.0 _ 16.0 _ -5.0 _ 150 _ 085 __ 230% Cork A

Tae laidir _____________ 7.9 _ 17.3 _ -3.3 _ 141 _ 088 __ 205% Oak Park

Esposito _____________ 7.8 _ 16.9 _ -2.8 _ 170 _ 090 __ 320% Cork A

Kindred Spirit _________ 7.7 _ 16.3 _ -3.7 _ 120 _ 090 __ 185% Valentia

Dacogawa ____________ 7.6 _ 16.8 _ -4.0 _ 170 _ 082 __ 270% Cork A

john mac _____________7.5 _ 18.5 _ -3.8 _ 120 _ 098 __ 170% Newport

MrSkinner ____________ 7.5 _ 17.0 _ -5.0 _ 175 _ 089 __ 180% Valentia

Jpmarn ______________ 7.5 _ 16.5 _ -3.8 _ 160 _ 090 __ 250% Johnstown C

Gonzo _______________ 7.5 _ 16.1 _ -3.8 _ 166 _ 078 __ 232% Cork A

Artane2002 ___________7.5 _ 15.7 _ -3.2 _ 160 _ 080 __ 250% Cork A

___ Con sensus _______ 7.4 _ 16.6 _ -3.8 _ 157 _ 088 __ 220% (see notes)

adam240610 _________ 7.4 _ 17.2 _ -3.8 _ 120 _ 091 __ 179% Cork A

Sunflower3 ___________ 7.4 _ 16.4 _ -4.8 _ 140 _ 085 __ 245% Valentia

Joe Public ____________ 7.4 _ 15.8 _ -4.1 _ 110 _ 093 __ 189% Valentia

200motels ____________7.4 _ 15.1 _ -1.8 _ 170 _ 070 __ 245% Valentia

M.T. Cranium __________7.3 _ 16.8 _ -3.2 _ 202 _ 085 __ 345% Johnstown C

waterways ___________ 7.2 _ 16.5 _ -4.2 _ 159 _ 097 __ 210% Roches Pt

___ NormaL __________ 7.2 _ 17.5 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 150% (scores 3/5 for loc'n)

Mr Stonewall __________7.1 _ 16.6 _ -3.8 _ 142 _ 078 __ 152% Valentia

DOCARCH ____________ 7.0 _ 17.2 _ -3.2 _ 138 _ 095 __ 215% Cork A

Dasa29 ______________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ -3.5 _ 150 _ 090 __ 200% Valentia

Appledrop ____________ 7.0 _ 16.7 _ -4.2 _ 157 _ 078 __ 220% Cork A

sryanbruen ___________ 7.0 _ 16.2 _ -3.9 _ 150 _ 080 __ 240% Cork A

Pauldry ______________ 6.7 _ 17.4 _ -5.0 _ 155 _ 090 __ 200% Newport

____________________________________

Quite a wet Nov is expected, a bit above average for temps, and cloudy ...

just a reminder, at random any location could register max % of normal precip,

which is why NormaL will score 3/5 for location. As to our picks, Cork was chosen by

9 of 23 forecasters; Valentia got a nod from 7, Johnstown C and Newport two,

and single votes for Roches Point, Oak Park and Moore Park.

If Cork is actually max % of normal, Con Sensus scores 5/5, if Valentia, 4/5,

if JC or Newport 2/5 and if RocP, OP or MP, Con scores 1/5. Any other leader

will result in 0/5 for Con's location portion. Your score will depend on where your

pick finishes in the 25-station ranking order as explained in the intro post. You'll

score points if you've picked a top ten finisher. And you're "insured" for 3/5 if

your location has the highest PRC total (even if not a high %). If we all look like

scoring 0 or 1 or 2 for location then I will broaden the range of qualifying ranks

so that we get at least one 5/5 and at least two 4/5 scores (for location).

I will post how October did below, as a guide to what that pattern produced; not

to say Nov will be all that similar.

If any late entries come in, I will adjust table later today. Scoring adjustments to

October and close annual scoring race will also come later today.

Good luck !!

M.T. Cranium

In October, if we had the Nov bonus question, results would have been:

(01)t __ 222% ___ Cork, Roches Point

(03) Moorepark 221%

(04) Johnstown Castle 217%

(05) Phoenix Park 165%

(06) Dublin 160%

(07) Sherkin 154%

(08) Oak Park 153%

(09) Valentia 143%

(10) Athenry 140%

and Cork 307.2 mm would be a guaranteed 3/5 for location due to that being the highest total but that would be void because of its top percentage also.

pauldry

More rain in Cork Saturday but I think after that the jetstream moves a bit more North so the traditional North and West get the rain. However Normal in the North and West is quite high so would take many wet days to even get 200 per cent in these areas. Forecast looks more unsettled and mobile than all out rain like October.

pauldry

Some data for 2 days from Met Eireann for our picks

Cork Airport 6.8mm

Valentia 10.3mm

Newport 17.4mm

Johnny C 10.6mm

The rest are under 5mm so far so not included.

pauldry

4 days in

Valentia 38mm

Johnstone 24mm

Newport 22mm

Cork 21mm

pauldry

6 Days In leaving Cork and Johnstone out as they are adrift now until tonight's rain

Valentia 48mm

Newport 45mm

SLIGO not in contest 72mm

M.T. Cranium

After first week ... 

IMT _ 8.3 (0.2 below normal)

MAX _ MIN _ not tracked yet

PRC _ 93% of normal

SUN _ 149% of normal

Max prec % loc'n

Valentia at 168% from 66.7 mm so far, appears to be in lead, will post more details later. Newport appears to be second.

M.T. Cranium

So as promised a more complete report on rainfall vs normal. Don't forget, it's possible for stations wit lower normal totals to do well in terms of percentage of normal, but so far the two lists are about in same order as the normally wetter western region is above its average and the normally drier eastern region is below its average. Note Dublin keeping pace despite a lower rainfall total.

What makes it a bit complicated to report on is fact that half the locations report in the Ag summary with a percentage given, but I have only the totals to date and end of month normal values for the rest. I am getting a fairly close estimate by assuming first week is 23% of month and so I take 4.35 times reported rainfall so far and compare it to station normal for end of Nov. This appears close for the locations where I already got a percentage from the ag report.

So in exact detail this is how stations are doing so far. As % of normal is the contest standard, I report them in that order but you'll see it's fairly close to the ranking for amounts also. Locations chosen for contest are shown with a double asterisk. **

1. Valentia _____168% ___ 66.7 mm **
2. Finner ______ 167% ___ 50.3 mm
3. Markree _____165% ___ 48.9 mm
4. Sherkin _____ 152% ___ 42.1 mm
5. Newport ____ 130% ___ 51.1 mm **
6. Roches Pt ___ 125% ___ 28.8 mm **
7. Shannon ____ 123% ___ 27.7 mm
8. Belmullet ____113% ___ 35.9 mm
9. Malin head ___109% ___ 34.8 mm
10. Phoenix Park _ 100% ___ 17.0 mm
11. Dublin _______ 98% ___ 17.0 mm
12. Johnstown C __ 97% ___ 26.4 mm **
13. Cork _________90% ___ 26.4 mm **
14. Ballyhaise ____ 89% ___ 20.2 mm
15. Mountdillon ___ 88% ___ 20.9 mm
16. Knock ________87% ___ 27.5 mm
17. Athenry ______ 81% ___ 22.5 mm
18. Gurteen ______ 74% ___ 16.3 mm
19. Dunsany ______72% ___ 14.0 mm
20. Mullingar _____ 69% ___ 14.9 mm
21. Claremorris ___ 65% ___ 18.9 mm
22. Moorepark ____ 62% ___ 15.2 mm **
23. Casement ____ 55% ____ 9.7 mm
24. Mace head ___150% ___ 16.8 mm
25. Oak Park _____ 45% ____ 9.2 mm **

pauldry

We may need some sort of torrential downpours in the next 7 days as the 2nd half of November looks like High Pressure will be more dominant and rainfall BELOW normal for first time in weeks.

pauldry

After 9 days

Valentia 84mm

Newport 78mm

SLIGO (currently) 90mm

M.T. Cranium

A low of -1.7 at mountdillon on 11 Nov.

Speaking of 11 Nov, a crazy statistic from OKC in U.S., setting record max and min (28 C and -8 C) on same date, Nov 11, 1911 (a famous cold front across all regions of central and eastern U.S. and Canada). It continued on down to -10 C for a record on 12 Nov also.

M.T. Cranium

14.3 on Sunday at moorepark is new max, I believe.

pauldry

45mm in Newport during Debi means after 13 days it's 139mm is well ahead of the chasing pack.

Sligo now has lost the lead from this station "only" 132mm

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT _ 8.2 C, second week average also 8.2, 0.4 above normal)

MAX _ 14.3

MIN _ -1.7

PRC _ 132% of normal, second week average 171% of normal

SUN _ 152% of normal, second week average 155% of normal

Max prec % loc'n

Will post a detailed table separately. A reminder, question is based on max percentage of normal, not necessarily max amount.

M.T. Cranium

Updated table for all locations, showing percentage of normal and total precip. As today (15 Nov) is largely dry (except for 5.3 mm so far at malin and 0.7 at finner), I have taken totals for 14 days, added on any hourly rainfalls today, realizing there could be a bit more later before day ends, and then compared totals to half the posted monthly average on the met-ie website.

** stations are contest selections

1. Newport ______172% ___148.0 mm **
2. Knock _______ 170% ___ 114.4 mm
3. Malin head ____164% ___ 89.1 mm
4. Markree ______155% ___ 99.5 mm
5. Finner _______ 153% ___ 98.0 mm
6. Claremorris ___ 148% ___ 90.3 mm
7. Mountdillon ___ 144% ___ 74.0 mm
8. Belmullet _____139% ___ 97.7 mm
9. Shannon _____ 139% ___ 65.6 mm
10. Sherkin ______ 136% ___ 81.7 mm
11. Ballyhaise ____ 134% ___ 63.8 mm
12. Roches Pt ____ 129% ___ 61.2 mm **
13. Athenry ______127% ___ 76.3 mm
14. Valentia ______127% ___108.1 mm **
15. Gurteen ______120% ___ 53.9 mm
16. Cork ________ 118% ___ 70.6 mm **
17. Mullingar _____111% ___ 49.2 mm
18. Dublin _______110% ___ 40.6 mm
19. Johnstown C __110% ___ 63.9 mm **
20. Dunsany _____105% ___ 44.2 mm
21. Oak Park _____ 93% ___ 40.2 mm **
22. Phoenix Park __ 89% ___ 34.1 mm
23. Moorepark ____ 82% ___ 43.6 mm **
24. Casement ____ 75% ___ 27.7 mm
25. Mace head ____75% ___ 56.8 mm

Of our actual contest picks, Newport is clearly doing better.

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park 14.6 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Ranking the bonus forecasts of percentage of normal rainfall ...

Newport. Knock and Markree recently passed their Nov average precip, so outcome is guaranteed to be above 100% but will it reach our lowest forecast of 152% (from Mr Stonewall) ? Current GFS suggests possibly not, and so far NormaL is doing well).

After 18 days, looking at only locations we picked, Newport is at 107% of total NOV rainfall, Roches Point 85%, Valentia is at 81%, Cork 79%, Johnstown Castle 72% and Moore Park, Oak Park at 56%. (x 5/3 to get percentage of normal to date). Today's amounts appear to add about 1-2 per cent to Newport, and less than 1% to rest of those). Knock is currently at 108% (about 110% after today) and Markree at 102% (103%).

GFS current predictions would suggest final values of over 100% for southwest could be reached but rest of country adding very little, so it's going to be a close race for location possibly, but at present no location is indicated getting over 120% of its normal value; however, storm track near end of month could be close to south coast and if it intensifies or shifts a bit north, all south coast locations could edge up towards 150%.

FORECASTER _________ Forecast % and location

M.T. Cranium __________345% Johnstown C

Esposito _____________ 320% Cork A

Dacogawa ____________ 270% Cork A

Jpmarn ______________ 250% Johnstown C

Artane2002 ___________250% Cork A

Sunflower3 ___________245% Valentia

200motels ____________245% Valentia

sryanbruen ___________ 240% Cork A

Gonzo _______________ 232% Cork A

Cornerstonelad ________ 230% Cork A

Rameire ______________220% Moore Park

Appledrop ____________ 220% Cork A

___ Con sensus _______ 220%

DOCARCH ____________ 215% Cork A

waterways ___________ 210% Roches Pt

Tae laidir _____________ 205% Oak Park

Dasa29 ______________ 200% Valentia

Pauldry ______________ 200% Newport

Joe Public ____________ 189% Valentia

Kindred Spirit _________ 185% Valentia

MrSkinner ____________ 180% Valentia

adam240610 _________ 179% Cork A

john mac _____________170% Newport

Mr Stonewall __________152% Valentia

___ NormaL __________ 150%

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121390009#Comment_121390009

It's a very odd one. November not all that wet yet an anomalous cyclonic z500 anomaly like this... it has definitely surprised me. It hasn't been settled but surprisingly not as much rain as you would think. Think those in flood affected areas very grateful it hasn't been nearly as bad as it could have been minus some unlucky ones like Newry in County Down. Certainly no 2009 situation.

Tae laidir

Yes, France seems to have received the rainfall we were expecting.

pauldry

Newport at 115percent now (up to lunchtime today) while the others are barely up to normal

It has 196mm now

Sligo Town has lost its lead now its 171mm

Markree some distance behind even though theyr running above normal too.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ... 

IMT _ 8.3 C, third week average 8.6, 1.4 above normal. GFS suggests colder at times and potential for end of Nov outcome near 7.5.

MAX _ 14.6 could be edged up tomorrow, if not, looks unlikely to be challenged

MIN _ -1.7 will have several opportunities to drop a bit and even the late evening of 30th on current guidance could provide a reading around -3 C on its way down to near -4 or -5 outside the Nov qualifying time frame.

PRC _ 119% of normal, third week average 92% of normal (guarantees at least 83% plus any further rainfall, current GFS guidance suggests 100% the outcome after only 53% production rate now to end (most of it on Sunday but potential for increases in later guidance towards end with lows lurking near south coast 28th-29th).

SUN _ 128% of normal, third week average 79% of normal. This can finish 120% if sunshine is near its low seasonal average values for last portion of Nov (2 to 2.5 hrs a day).

Max prec % loc'n (bonus) ...

Not a lot new to say here, Newport currently at 115% of its end of Nov average, and Knock at 119%, Malin and Markree also a bit over eventual averages, will post an update on this aspect after Sunday's expected rainfalls and see what latest guidance is saying for rest of Nov at that point. Based on current guidance, Newport would likely win for locations picked as there is no particular bias towards lagging south coast stations, but that could change near end of Nov. Deficit is considerable, for example, JC is currently at 78% of its average Nov rainfall and Oak Park is only at 60% (Moorepark 62%). Cork was 81% and Valentia 88%. To convert all values in discussion to % of average for 21 days, apply x10/7 but with dry conditions expected today to Saturday 25th, by then you would convert by taking 6/5 or adding one-fifth, so effectively Newport would be at around 138% of normal going into Sunday's rainfall event, Oak Park only at 72% of its normal by 25 Nov.

A reminder, question is based on max percentage of normal, not necessarily max amount.

M.T. Cranium

A new min of -2.7 at Dunsany on Saturday a.m., Esposito will be hoping it stays in place with close forecast of -2.8. Only 200motels (-1.8) and Rameire (-2.0) have seen any loss from this late development. Quite a few need a lower min to score many points and if we need to go to minimum progression then, using this value, Esposito would have a hammer. If it gets a bit colder we won't need the min pro ... the latest guidance does not look promising for night of 30 Nov - 1 Dec to turn cold enough fast enough to impact on Nov min, but anyway, I will be back in a couple of days with week four stats and updates. The eventual rainfall later this week does not appear to be enough to shift location away from Newport although it may change the order of other locations.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ... 

IMT _ 8.0 C, fourth week average 7.1, 0.2 above normal. will fall to around 7.5. (it's at 8.04 or I could be saying 7.4)

MAX _ 14.6 probably set.

MIN _ -2.7 will have two opportunities to drop a bit, overnight low and the late evening of 30th on current guidance could provide a reading around -3 C on its way down to near -4 or -5 outside the Nov qualifying time frame on Friday morning.

PRC _ 100% of normal (for 28 days, not entire month), fourth week average a dry 24% of normal (guarantees at least 93% plus any further precip, current guidance suggests next to none, so 93 to 95% likely (blend of weekly values does not always exactly calculate to reported values for months)

SUN _ 112% of normal, fourth week average 62% of normal. This will finish close to 110%.

Max prec % loc'n (bonus) ...

Probably set now. But will adjust following list after 30 Nov final reports.

Reporting % for 30 days not 28 as I don't expect these to change very much:

Location __________ Precip _____ LTA _______ % of normal

Knock ____________ 172.8 ____ 134.2 ______ 129

Newport __________ 209.5 ____ 170.4 ______ 123

Malin _____________127.4 ____ 108.6 ______ 118

Markree __________ 145.0 ____ 128.4 ______ 113

Shannon __________100.9 _____ 94.1 ______ 107

Finner ____________136.9 ____ 128.6 ______ 106

Belmullet _________ 139.0 ____ 134.0 ______ 104

Mountdillon ________106.1 ____ 102.4 ______ 104

Claremorris ________125.4 ____ 122.7 ______ 102

Valentia ___________165.0 ____ 169.3 _______97

Sherkin Is _________ 114.8 ____ 120.1 ______ 96

Athenry ___________113.5 ____ 120.3 ______ 95

Ballyhaise __________ 89.6 _____ 95.3 ______ 94

Roches Pt __________ 86.6 _____ 95.0 ______ 91

Gurteen ___________ 81.2 _____ 89.8 ______ 90

Cork _____________ 106.4 ____ 120.0 ______ 89

Dunsany ___________68.2 _____ 84.0 ______ 82

Mullingar __________ 71.2 _____ 88.1 ______ 81

Dublin ____________ 58.7 _____ 72.9 ______ 81

Johnstown C _______ 90.9 ____ 115.3 ______ 79

Moorepark _________ 71.1 ____ 105.4 ______ 68

Phoenix Park ________47.0 _____ 75.6 ______ 63

Oak Park __________ 53.3 _____ 85.9 ______ 62

Mace head _________ 79.2 ____ 150.8 ______ 53

Casement __________37.2 _____ 73.7 ______ 51

...

Will report final values on Wed for all aspects and present a preliminary report on scoring, monthly summary is not due until 4th for final confirmed scoring report.

appledrop

New Min -3.4 at Mt Dillion.

M.T. Cranium

Location scoring for bonus will be adjusted to the range of locations selected, I was expecting a wider selection and except for Newport (would score 4/5 on current list), our other choices all appear to be scoring one or zero (8th-10th were to score 1/5, Valentia is currently 10th).

Johnstown Castle picked up about 2% on 29th, as did non-selection Casement. A few PRC sites gained 1% also, placing contest PRC outcome closer to 95%. On 30 Nov a similar story, small inceases at a few eastern and nortern coastal stations. In any case exact PRC will not be an issue as boosts will be needed.

Scoring for bonus question location will probably be 5/5 for Newport, 4/5 for Valentia, 3/5 for Roches Pt and Cork, 2/5 for Johnstown Castle and 1/5 for Oak Park and Moorepark.

Scoring for % will definitely be in groups of five closest together for optimal outcomes. With 23 forecasts I had a look at the range and decided it would be fair to go as high as that system allows with the three worst (highest %) getting 1/5 and the rest evenly spaced in groups of five.

This will give two superbonus points to john mac, and one to messrs skinner and stonewall, kindred spirit, pauldry, and joe public will also receive one.

It looks like yesterday was cold enough to drop the IMT to 7.86 (7.9), a similar drop today of about 0.16 will leave it at 7.7. Will know the actual value around noon Friday.

10.8 hrs sun at our six locations on 29th will be consistent with 110% estimate. 30h on 30th will push result up to around 115%. This won't be an issue as a boost was already needed at 110% (all forecasts were below 100%).

Will be possible but not overly likely to see a reading below -3.4 by midnight. (edit, but it did get to -4 by 2200h so table will need an edit on Friday) ... -5.1 is our new min.

All of the above will allow for preliminary scoring to follow, will be able to edit in any apparent changes needed if I post this a bit later.

M.T. Cranium

Preliminary Scoring for November 2023

FORECASTER __________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ BONUS __ sb ___ TOTAL

Rameire ______________20 _ 19*_ 00 _ 01*_ 03*__ 3 1 __________ 47

Cornerstonelad ________ 21 _ 16*_ 19 _ 08*_ 07*__ 3 3 __________ 77

Tae laidir _____________ 22 _ 02*_ 02 _ 09*_ 08*__ 4 1 __________ 48

Esposito _____________ 23 _ 07*_ 00 _ 02*_ 08*__ 1 3 __________ 44

Kindred Spirit _________ 24 _ 14*_ 06 _ 14*_ 08*__ 5 4 _ 1 _______ 76

Dacogawa ____________ 25 _ 09*_ 09 _ 02*_ 06*__ 1 3 __________ 55

john mac _____________24 _ 01*_ 07 _ 14*_ 10*__ 5 5 _ 2 _______ 68

MrSkinner ____________ 24 _ 06*_ 19 _ 02*_ 09*__ 5 4 _ 1 _______ 70

Jpmarn ______________ 24 _ 12*_ 07 _ 03*_ 08*__ 1 2 __________ 57

Gonzo _______________ 24 _ 15*_ 07 _ 03*_ 06*__ 3 3 __________ 61

Artane2002 ___________24 _ 18*_ 01 _ 03*_ 06*__ 2 3 __________ 57

___ Con sensus _______ 23 _ 10*_ 07 _ 05*_ 08*__ 3 3 __________ 59

adam240610 _________ 23 _ 04*_ 07 _ 14*_ 09*__ 5 3 __________ 65

Sunflower3 ___________ 23 _ 14*_ 17 _ 10*_ 07*__ 2 4 __________ 77

Joe Public ____________ 23 _ 17*_ 10 _ 15*_ 09*__ 4 4 _ 1 _______ 83

200motels ____________23 _ 20*_ 00 _ 02*_ 04*__ 2 4 __________ 55

M.T. Cranium __________22 _ 09*_ 01 _ 00 _ 07*__ 1 2 __________ 42

waterways ____________21 _ 12*_ 11 _ 04*_ 10*__ 4 3 __________ 65

___ NormaL __________ 21 _ 02*_ 09 _ 15*_ 10*__ 5 3 __________ 65

Mr Stonewall __________20 _ 10*_ 07 _ 09*_ 06*__ 5 4 _ 1 _______ 61

DOCARCH ____________ 19 _ 04*_ 01 _ 11*_ 09*__ 3 3 __________ 50

Dasa29 ______________ 19 _ 06*_ 04 _ 08*_ 08*__ 4 4 __________ 53

Appledrop ____________ 19 _ 10*_ 11 _ 05*_ 06*__ 3 3 __________ 57

sryanbruen ___________ 19 _ 15*_ 08 _ 08*_ 06*__ 2 3 __________ 61

Pauldry ______________ 16 _ 01*_ 19 _ 05*_ 08*__ 4 5 _ 1 _______ 59

____________________________________

IMT ended on 7.6 (7.64) and scores are adjusted as of 1300h Friday 1st.

Will check exact values of PRC and SUN later, with scoring boosts, no effect on scores anyway.

MAX scoring required minimum progression, no hammer was involved (top raw score 15/20), progression was 20 down to 1 with jogs (no step down) at 15, 10, 6 and 1.

MIN scoring was upended by late change, scores generally lower. Could add 1-2 points after a longer look at end of process, but it's a hammer situation so differentials will be small. (later edit, probably won't adjust, not enough zero scores or sag below trigger scoring distribution, so we're stuck with these.

PRC also required minimum progression, also no hammer as top raw score was 10/15 (Normal at 13/15 would qualify if an actual person). Same scoring procedure as for above except jogs are at 9, 5, 3 and 2 with one score zero, to give better fit with scatter of errors, three scored 14/15 by ties at 120%.

SUN required minimum progression, fairest solution was to score from 100% rather than 115% (new estimate) or so. Our top forecast was 98%, second was 97% and I also gave that one 10.

<<< SCORING is now adjusted on 1st Dec, and will be finalized on 4 Dec

-- will post updated annual scoring on 1st or 2nd -- -- looks like Joe Public, Kindred Spirit, Cornerstonelad and sunflower3 will be making a move up scoring table, but not a lot of spread in scoring for most of us, if your NOV score is low you'll be bringing in 2nd lowest annual score instead anyway ...

=======================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Max prec % loc'n

Rameire ______________8.1 _ 15.4 _ -2.0 _ 180 _ 065 __ 220% Moore Park

Cornerstonelad ________ 8.0 _ 16.0 _ -5.0 _ 150 _ 085 __ 230% Cork A

Tae laidir _____________ 7.9 _ 17.3 _ -3.3 _ 141 _ 088 __ 205% Oak Park

Esposito _____________ 7.8 _ 16.9 _ -2.8 _ 170 _ 090 __ 320% Cork A

Kindred Spirit _________ 7.7 _ 16.3 _ -3.7 _ 120 _ 090 __ 185% Valentia

Dacogawa ____________ 7.6 _ 16.8 _ -4.0 _ 170 _ 082 __ 270% Cork A

john mac _____________7.5 _ 18.5 _ -3.8 _ 120 _ 098 __ 170% Newport

MrSkinner ____________ 7.5 _ 17.0 _ -5.0 _ 175 _ 089 __ 180% Valentia

Jpmarn ______________ 7.5 _ 16.5 _ -3.8 _ 160 _ 090 __ 250% Johnstown C

Gonzo _______________ 7.5 _ 16.1 _ -3.8 _ 166 _ 078 __ 232% Cork A

Artane2002 ___________7.5 _ 15.7 _ -3.2 _ 160 _ 080 __ 250% Cork A

___ Con sensus _______ 7.4 _ 16.6 _ -3.8 _ 157 _ 088 __ 220% (see notes)

adam240610 _________ 7.4 _ 17.2 _ -3.8 _ 120 _ 091 __ 179% Cork A

Sunflower3 ___________ 7.4 _ 16.4 _ -4.8 _ 140 _ 085 __ 245% Valentia

Joe Public ____________ 7.4 _ 15.8 _ -4.1 _ 110 _ 093 __ 189% Valentia

200motels ____________7.4 _ 15.1 _ -1.8 _ 170 _ 070 __ 245% Valentia

M.T. Cranium __________7.3 _ 16.8 _ -3.2 _ 202 _ 085 __ 345% Johnstown C

waterways ___________ 7.2 _ 16.5 _ -4.2 _ 159 _ 097 __ 210% Roches Pt

___ NormaL __________ 7.2 _ 17.5 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 150% (scores 3/5 for loc'n)

Mr Stonewall __________7.1 _ 16.6 _ -3.8 _ 142 _ 078 __ 152% Valentia

DOCARCH ____________ 7.0 _ 17.2 _ -3.2 _ 138 _ 095 __ 215% Cork A

Dasa29 ______________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ -3.5 _ 150 _ 090 __ 200% Valentia

Appledrop ____________ 7.0 _ 16.7 _ -4.2 _ 157 _ 078 __ 220% Cork A

sryanbruen ___________ 7.0 _ 16.2 _ -3.9 _ 150 _ 080 __ 240% Cork A

Pauldry ______________ 6.7 _ 17.4 _ -5.0 _ 155 _ 090 __ 200% Newport

____________________________________