FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

munsterlegend

This isn't how it usually works! Normally it's downgrades as we get closer to the colder weather.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121566792#Comment_121566792

Indeed, but it did happen in 2009, 10 and 18. So it can happen, in fact it's odds on now

pureza

I know it's day 13 but the gfs 12z long fetch Southeasterly with minus ten uppers could in theory pummel north leinster and east ulster with snow showers

It's lala land though

nacho libre

Look at that! Almost completely severed. That screams a long lasting cold spell to me if this come to pass. I wouldn't say its odd on just yet, though.

Billcarson

Can we break the Irish second half of Jan cold spell curse that's lasted for the last few decades????????

munsterlegend

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121566849#Comment_121566849

2010 was extreme and I see on other sites you think this is likely again. Anyway we'll wait and see.

sryanbruen

Spot the difference 🤨

*just for amusement sakes! (Stolen from Netweather of course lol)

GEFS seem to be more in favour of an easterly influence early next week meanwhile in line with the operational runs of several models this afternoon.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121566849#Comment_121566849

When it comes to cold in Ireland it is never odds on. Unless it’s 24-48 hours away.

Cork2021

RAMP!!!

https://youtu.be/9mW6fRIha6Y?si=8KvCQL7iiP3MTWLl

Slashermcguirk

January 2010 I remember being absolutely baltic. There was really bad ice for days on end here in Dublin and I think we had one or two nice snowfalls too and snow stayed on the ground. Vividly reminder snowball fights happening in the local green. Then November / December that year was the mothership of snow. 2010 was just extraordinary for snow in ireland

torres9kop

I remember the 2010 event. When the first few flakes started to fall in Dublin I was in a taxi heading out for pints.

Came out of the pub after place was white. Great excitment

pureza

https://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-67871751

Above is, where our air would be coming from in a north easterly or eastnortheasterly, it would mainline us with frigid air and Crucially icy dew points

A direct easterly,less cold at the moment and take a few days longer to feed in here

Gonzo

GFS 12z is an upgrade for cold in the later half of the run, it's along way out tho deep in FI between 15th January and 19th January, almost 2 weeks away. In the meantime high pressure will dominate over the coming week with a slight chance of some wintry showers next week and then a brief milder turn before potentially turning much colder again.

Overall it looks mostly dry until January 15th with maybe a few light wintry showers around coasts but for many of us it will stay completely dry over the coming week at least.

As for the GEM it's a strange looking ensemble with such a massive variation in scatter from 4 days time so great uncertainty.

The only thing the 2 ensembles have in common is the brief mild spell between 11th and 13th of January and a trend towards wetter conditions right a the end which could be wintry in nature.

nacho libre

It's primed to unleash the beast from the north/ north east. Very encouraging runs today.

nacho libre

Polar low territory if that comes down on us. I see Gonzo is talking it all down so he doesn't get his hopes up. I suppose in fairness with this almost two weeks away he is right. Cold spells can vanish at 48 hours notice

Larbre34

One thing I've learned in this place over the last 16 years, is that in Winter, nothing beyond +72 is even worth looking at.

I know this is the FI thread, and the whole point is to look at trends and potential outcomes, but I feel there may be a few more recent arrivals that pin their hopes a bit on modelling, as if it is forecasting.

Just be wary on this folks, nothing really resolves until its in the national forecasts at or about +96. And even then, we have had detonation at +24 or less, so fine are the margins in our part of the World.

Still, I do remain hopeful of seeing a snowy period at some point in the next 7 weeks, even if its nothing epic. Winter never feels like a proper renewal without a frigid few days here and there, if only to kill off the bugs!

BLIZZARD7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121567276#Comment_121567276

Worth noting that these aren’t actually showing milder surface conditions, that milder blip is just at the 850hpa level with the surface staying cold throughout under high pressure.

Great runs these past few days with momentum building, the day 9/10 charts are converging on holy grail Synoptics with very severe cold to our north and north east… if these are still showing by the weekend (I think they will be) then it’s definitely game on.

In the meantime, cold and dry (Finally!) with perhaps some flurries in the east/South east later in the weekend/early next week.

Happy New Year to all btw ! :)

Edit: See 2m temps attached, down we go…

SnowyMuckish

Long time lurker and I’m beginning to get carried away with all the excitement 🙈! I’ll have to tune out for a few days to steady myself 🫣.

Thanks to all the regular posters for their informative posts it’s nice to have something to look forward to, here’s hoping 🤞❄️☃️

sryanbruen

Erm... not sure how the UKV has gotten this cold for early next week.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121567529#Comment_121567529

I can't make that out, is it showing -8 and -9 uppers widely?

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121567544#Comment_121567544

Has -6 to -9 widely over Ireland with widespread -10/-11C over England. Think it even gets down to -12C in the core of the airmass.

Edit: I have posted a better quality one.

Gonzo

The GFS 12z really is quite cold when you look at the temperatures due to inversion. From Sunday/Monday onwards most places struggling to get above 0C during daytime and night time temperatures regularly in the 0C to -6C range. Depending on how severe the frost and fog becomes some places could struggle to get much above 0C for an entire week or more. In terms of cold and frost, this upcoming spell is going to be certainly more severe than the early December spell which was a bit of a joke in the end.

sryanbruen

ECM ensembles are a turn up for the books. A very strong signal of blocking in the North Atlantic to Greenland with severe cold air digging down on its eastern flank from the north. Only thing I'll say that still shows a bit of a red flag is the absence of Euro low heights but it's an evolving pattern.

Rarely have I seen such a strong signal at 240 hours, you won't see a much better signal than that at such a lead time really. Saying that, it's still fantasy land. All round model agreement this evening for a North Sea/Scandi ridge to bring a bit of an easterly early next week with the anticyclone slowly retrogressing westward to maybe becoming a Greenland or Iceland block by the 13th-15th January - at last some agreement, it feels like it's been forever 🙄

Not many times we've seen this sort of signal but been bitten too many times for me to not be pessimistic. So let's see.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121567561#Comment_121567561

Thanks. So at the very least we could have a cold spell to rival the one we had in December 2022. It would be great if we had a repeat of the rime frost we had in that one.

Gonzo

The KMA also consistently cold for us, dry for the most part but a chance of snow showers from a brief easterly/south-easterly.

pad199207

Fabulous winter Synoptics being thrown out today, would be a feat after being progged a few months ago.

Dry, crisp mornings with the canal frozen over… bliss.

Gonzo

The UKV has updated and is even more extreme than the chart which Syran just posted with -10C uppers widely across Leinster and parts of Munster by Monday.

Billcarson

I'm hoping the upcoming frosty spell will be similar to the cold spell in Dec 2022 for starters. I imagine temperatures could be fairly similar to that spell ???? Then hopefully followed by a decent cold snowy spell.

lawred2

What would that translate to on the ground?

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121567668#Comment_121567668

The UKV would be an ice day or near ice day except within a few kms of the East coast