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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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Hopefully some juicy charts over the next week with an increasing amount of confidence. This time I would like something properly cold and unstable, a cold spell with excitement this time around, no atlantic mixing, a decent fall of snow, not asking for too much here, just a nice wee fall of snow that will last a few days!
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06z op run is low Res but it's interesting to see the model still flirting with the idea of next week's high linking up with the Greenland system and pulling in a polar airmass.
The prospect isn't entirely without support as the GEFS mean would suggest
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GFS 6z getting there towards the end, if only we could go on another few days, where would that high go, we would need it to park itself into position between Greenland and Iceland for several days allowing that bitter northerly down over us and after that try and get an easterly/northeasterly going with cold air locked in. On this particular run the high pressure is a bit too close to the Canadian side for my liking. MT is going for a fairly unsettled period over Christmas itself so perhaps just after Christmas is when we may get our next cold spell and it would want to be much more exciting than the rather pathetic cold spell we just had.
The overall 6z ensembles shows it mostly mild between now and the 22nd of December followed by a rapid cool down into Christmas with a cold spell being edged onto the table perhaps.
Looks significantly dryer from December 15th with high pressure possibly dominating our weather. Those very warm upper air temperatures between the 17th and 21st of December could be very deceptive and instead offer us inversion and very chilly temperatures here at the surface so this run may not be as mild as it looks on the ensemble graph.
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The one thing we don't want to end up with is close but no cigar with the UK and almost everywhere else in Europe getting plastered. I agree we have quiet a way to go with this one. Another week of unsettled conditions followed by an unknown number of days under possible high pressure and after that everything is up in the air.
Ensembles really starting to dry out from the 15th of December. We still see the chance of a cold spell developing from the 20th of December but with a very wide range of scatter anything from exciting to nothing is on the table.
Hopefully by the end of this weekend we will have a better idea if we're potentially looking at something noteworthy for the final third of December or nothing at all.
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The 18z not much in it tonight but if you thought there was alot of scatter earlier it's even worse now, the milder and colder ensembles are becoming more intense so the gap of uncertainty widens even more.
An enormous spread of options from balmy +10 uppers to plunged into the freezer -10 uppers. Massive uncertainty and anything is possible. Tonights 18z operational in the mildest range of the set so probably won't verify, although high pressure of some description seems nailed on at this stage.
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Was just looking at the mean and it is very interesting, at least from the perspective of cutting off the Atlantic and potentially opening up a route for a colder airmass over Ireland in the run up to Christmas. Gfs has been consistent on this for the past 48 hours.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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It's all about that high and where it positions itself but right now it's consistently signalled to recede westward or westnorthwestward to link with the Greenland high. With 17 days to go until Christmas Day, I'll take this mean hpa. Was on an American wx forum earlier and the talk is about a mild Christmas period there with a warm Pacific airmass flooding the continent. Pity about them 😛
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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GFS has been performing very strongly in medium to long range output over the course of the autumn. It has not been as good in the 7-day window. I reckon we will see the ensembles over the next few days showing an increasing dip in temperatures for the days leading up to Christmas based on its current output and the 'trend' of a regressing high linking up with the heights over Greenland.
EDIT add-on:
Latest GEFS ENS
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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A percentile forecast on likelihood of 850hPAs being minus -5c or below on Dec 22nd below, followed by the various perturbations depicting 06Z GFS run. Cold conditions highly favoured for the couple of days leading up to Christmas. Nothing severe is favoured as of yet but it certainly doesn't look like it will be mild.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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Thursday 21st December on GFS. It is being somewhat consistent on that Northern toppler for around this time period. Positioning of the high is key should such a scenario develop. Right now, the ensembles are all that matters so will update/edit this post when they are out.
EDIT: Ensembles mean does not follow previous runs re: 20th-22nd in linking up the two highs as well. Next week's high regresses westsouthwestward rather than westward or westnorthwestward and presents more of cool Polar Maritime airmass rather than cold Polar Maritime Airmass potential. The change is very subtle but represents a break from the aforementioned trend of the past 48 hours, irrespective of what the outlier op run above is showing. Will update after the 18z GFS and will taker a look at ECM Ens too when they are out.
Separately, the GEM is favourable toward a more blocked pattern at 240hrs. The ECM positioning of the high is closer to the Azores and there is a distinct lack of heights over Greenland at 240hrs
The GEM ens (top) are a tad cooler than the GEFS (bottom)
On an aside, the latest NAO Index shows a turn toward neutral stage around the 19th/20th. The AO stays negative.
Post edited by WolfeEire onwww.x.com/wolfeeire
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Plenty of scatter in the run up to Christmas. Turning colder but nothing exceptional on the cards based on latest output. It will change 10m more times. We may rise above the current top monthly air temp of 13.3c later next week based on this but few chances in between or thereafter. It's unlikely that we will exceed the IMT by much for December if at all based on the below. Our current low temp for the month of -5.8c is unlikely to be beaten until later in the month if at all.
It is highly likely that precip levels will finish below normal.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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In terms of warming not much happening on the operational runs but some of the GFS ensemble members are hinting towards a major warming taking place from around Christmas Day onwards, not many are doing it but these are first signs I've seen. Hopefully we will see an increasing number showing this as we progress throughout next week.
ECM also showing hints of a warming end of December/early January.
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12z rolling out and looks increasingly mild as the high pressure looks like it will be positioned to the south of the UK and Ireland and we draw up very mild if not warm south-westerlies next weekend with +8 uppers possible.
Moving towards Christmas the high is set to move out into the Atlantic, however there is no northern blocking here to support the high pressure to go far enough north, although cooler air may temporarily move southeastwards across Ireland.
The continent and SE UK goes into the freezer in the lead up to Christmas but Ireland and Scotland stays out in the mild. Of course this is almost 2 weeks away so cannot be taking seriously in any way.
We finish up on Christmas Day in a very mild westerly flow with the high pressure meandering around the Atlantic staying mostly to our south. For us this is a fairly mild run but for the continent it's fairly cold.
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GFS is probably as flat as it looks as it sees the least amount of amplification from the MJO. It goes firmly into the "circle of death" (very scientific 🙃) and stays there.
The ECM has a bit more amplification through phase 5 into 6 but also eventually goes into the COD.
These are not good trends. To get blocking going, you need to see this being amplified through to phases 7-8-1.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) Australian model has been consistently going for a strong MJO progression to phase 8 through the second half of December and then sustains. This would prolong blocking and would also be the key player in forcing a major SSW which would play an important role when the MJO would relax (if this were to verify) and go back through the cycle.
You'd be relying on that BOM verifying but the more time passes, the more it's seemingly on its own with its amplified signal. Therefore, I would not be placing your bets on a cold Christmas to New Year week. This does not preclude polar maritime interludes - Christmas 2004 was such, but it's not great. We would want to see better.
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Cool with transient cold (polar maritime) the most likely outcome based on current output. After a promising 2-3 days of the GFS setting up a block in the Atlantic with the pre Christmas high regressing toward Greenland heights, we have seen in the last two days the pre Xmas high sink south leaving us with a rather flat zonal pattern. That said the ECMWF clusters/ems are throwing up a mixed bag of everything for Christmas. And the USA is looking toasty for Christmas into New Year.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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06z gfs ens a tad cooler than 00z, 18z and 12z. The pressure mean brings the mid Atlantic high further south east,while there is greater heights over Greenland. A cooler run into Christmas Day than previous runs on average with nothing exceptionally cold or mild favoured.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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Just took a look at the 6z in terms of warming and there has been a big shift since yesterdays output to support major warmings from Christmas Day. Yesterday there were only 2 ensemble members supporting a major warming developing. This mornings GFS runs has about 8 members going into the red showing the possibilities of an SSW in the works while the majority of the remaining members go for low to intermediate warmings.
A fairly major shift towards substantial warming in todays models compared to yesterday. We are likely to see a further swing towards a major end of December warming over the next few days, fingers crossed. Current modeling suggests that the PV may come under major pressure final week of December and into the first week of January. What we need to see modeled in about a weeks time is the warming pushing right into the pole with the PV being split into 2 separate lobes and not just a displacement.
As for the GFS operational it does not go for a major warming, however the PV is being stretched and displaced on that particular run, while at the same time another warming is developing over the med and heading towards Asia.
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