FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121589819#Comment_121589819

So no Scandi High to end the month:)

Gonzo

That 18z pub run operational is perhaps the single worst model output since we first started chasing this carrot over a week ago. I agree that chasing this one is getting tiring I kinda hope we know what we're in for by tomorrow evening. Game on for for a cold spell, no man's land or a complete and utter bust.

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121589832#Comment_121589832

Maybe its just me but i could see the High Exiting stage right. Acting somewhat like a Scandi High. That would be a juicy chart. Then add in the low or reversed zonal winds for that time period. (Maybe im looking with my heart than head )

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121589814#Comment_121589814

Not a huge outlier but there are some colder members for the 14-16th period. The better news is that the mean actually takes a bit of a nosedive Tuesday night to minus 7 850s and holds between minus 6 and 7 through to Friday morn. Overall, it's a tad colder run than the 12z.

We have the ECM and ICON on board.

The JMA was the first to break today. The GEM and UKMO were halfway houses.

We are looking at model output collectively favouring cold but the gap has narrowed since last night. The cold spell doesn't look particularly wintry but the finer details are impossible to call at this point. The Atlantic is the form horse regarding our weather from Day 12-13 on.

Plenty more fun and games tomorrow. Please call again.

Calibos

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121589795#Comment_121589795

Found that archived Feb 5th 2012 Island of green Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice chart on an old Hard Drive i thought I had lost.

I've lost count of the number of times we've been the most northerly snow free country on the planet thanks to similar 'green fingers of Slime'!!

esposito

Great analysis Wolfe.

On tomorrow’s models would like to see the cold not pushed out or delayed anymore. I want us to be talking about day 5 and 6 charts not 9 and 10.

Im just about remaining glass half full but my God the models are frustrating. I really don’t want the Atlantic to return anytime soon and if it does hopefully it’s very brief and there’s another reload of very cold air, preferably from the north east or east. No confidence in northerlies to deliver snow to eastern counties anymore.

WolfeEire

Of course, we also run the risk of wishing away the days until next Monday when today and tomorrow 'could' turn out to have been much colder. I'll take the latter 850s for next week from the 18z when we have even better numbers from a couple of other models. It sure beats the two week wind driven rain episode we just went through.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121589937#Comment_121589937

If this cold spell ends up a bust, I don't think i have the energy to chase another cold spell courtesy of a Scandi High. I suppose if you are not invested in a particular outcome it's exciting following the twists and turn and a good learning curve. I wonder do our counterparts on North American weather forums really appreciate snowfall as much as we do. What's seldom is wonderful.

Gonzo

I want a resolve tomorrow. I've been chasing charts for over a week which to be honest from a snow perspective are not that exciting. If this ends up being a bust tomorrow or Wednesday it's not a big loss, certainly not like 2012 levels or even the bust before Christmas recently. I feel the main problem which has gone wrong in this current setup is we did not get a major SSW and the heights are not going to stick to Greenland and the heights are not going to disappear from southern Europe in a puff of smoke. We only had a displacement, a minor warming event and the winds did not go into reverse so this cold spell is relatively short and only draws in low level cold the most of the time before mild comes back. If we had a major SSW with a split we would have stood a much better chance of the high going to Greenland and actually staying there for more than 1 hour. I'm happy enough for this cold spell to fall apart and be a complete bust with the Atlantic to come back for a brief spell only to reset the pattern. I still feel another major cold spell could be in the works for February and I'm more than happy to let this one go if we actually get a proper easterly or north-eastly in February, while not in the heart to winter it would still lead to widespread white gold compared to what is being modelled at the moment.

arctictree

Awful quite here! This mornings ECM looks like a cracker. Anyone got the precip charts? Looks like a couple of battleground events at t+192 and t+240

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121590580#Comment_121590580

Sounds like it's been pushed out again.

WolfeEire

A cold snap is strongly favoured right now. Tomorrow's 12z for me are the most important runs as we will have entered more reliable timeframe. The charts present significant potential for cold and wintry activity. There will be more ebb and flow today and overnight but I am coming to the conclusion that the UKMO has been spot on with its longstanding forecast of a battleground scenario as is now indicated across the board. Enjoy the ride or perhaps, take a break from looking at the charts for a while if you find yourself getting irrationally angry at a computer model. It's only weather.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121590601#Comment_121590601

No it's getting closer actually, quite nailed on for next week, with some happy wintry surprises for some,have you the Sled at the ready?

The real cold air follows an occlusion wrapped around a cold front travelling down from the north as per the below latest UKMO fax chart for Saturday so,we should know all about it by Monday ?

WolfeEire

The 06z GFS is utterly chaotic. I acknowledge the 06z is a low res control run but the difference in output to the 00z is staggering. Don't bother looking at it and wait for the ensembles. Case in point is the below for 180hrs which. Ill update when ensembles are out.

Chris_5339762

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121589980#Comment_121589980

A few years ago someone referred to it on here as "the green snot of death"

WolfeEire

The most significant change in the GFS mean that I have spotted is the squeezing of the Greenland block and the PV spill of colder airmass into North America. The latter usually creates a westerly -NAO, hence why that colder push from the north into Ireland is less impactful and longlasting. It is in keeping somewhat with the UKMO's idea of a battleground scenario for UK/Ireland and MTC alluding to a cold westerly flow eventually developing.

Just an observation rather than a forecast. Forgive my rudimentary arrows.

The same pattern is not as obvious in the UKMO and ECM until later next week while the GFS sets up such a scenario from early doors. The GEFS mean is milder than the 00z which is a backward step for prospects of a noteworthy cold spell from this model but two thirds of members under minus 5 850s Tuesday into Friday (see above image). The 12z is invariably an improved run so all is not lost. The ECM and UKMO are still keen on a cold spell.

TheMilkyPirate

I've never seen a low track east to west like it does on the 6z between 228h and 250h

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121591059#Comment_121591059

That deep pool of cold over North America would fire up the jetstream and allow for rapid movement across the Atlantic. The only positive is that the jetstream isn't right at us but carrying systems more toward western france, which sets up the potential for Ireland to be on the right side of sliding lows. Whether there will be enough of a colder airmass to the north of these sliders to produce snow here is another matter.

Just to add, we have entered a critical period in how the various models are handling Sunday through next week. Tomorrow evening's runs mark the 5-day more reliable timeframe and you would expect that we have a fuller picture of what will transpire then, with the exception of specifics regarding snowfall should a cold outcome be signalled.

pureza

Wolf is spot on above,I'd agree 100%

My thinking do ya know at the moment is to agree with the UKMO that those fronts are coming down but to what impact longevity wise and what variation the north wind blows (N,NE or NW)will determine the precipitation weather and what's going on over North America will have a bearing on all that

almostthere12

The Op and Control look to be at the top of the range on the GFS 06z, which is good to see, hopefully it will go back to more of an ecm and ukmo pattern. Would love to have bitter cold from the north for a few days and then a sliding low for the south which is more or less what the ecm does.

Timistry

Cold weather advisory extended out to Sunday

WolfeEire

GEFS ensembles reflective of that mobile westerly -NAO pattern developing next week, as well as the jetstream directed just south of Ireland. It doesn't warm up as rapidly like the 00z did. Small fluctations in this can see the below readings go up or down. GFS has a bias toward firing lows further north at this range so we will see what materialises in future runs. Finally on the GEFS, there is notable scatter from this Friday/Saturday which shows us that there is plenty to play out.

UKMO is the most robust regarding a colder spell and a less mobile Atlantic, while the ECM is currently a halfway house between the UKMO and GEFS. It is all rather uninspiring on the front of it but there is potential for disruptive cold weather in a battleground scenario. Should a mild solution be the final result then we have potential for wet weather which is the last thing sodden ground needs in Ireland.

WolfeEire

UK Met Office updated forecast is very interesting and is a double down on a battleground setup, and mentions of high pressure in control of our weather at times for latter part of January into February.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121591201#Comment_121591201

The only issue I have is this winter the GFS has had a tendency to pick up on things with the ECM a day or two behind. That's not to say this is what's happening here, but if the American modelling is right in its output for North America then it could be the difference between us getting cold rain as opposed to a snow fest. We are going to find out very soon who is right.

nacho libre

That said the UKMO text forecast has been rock solid in its output and across all models the trend is exactly as they envisaged it for some sort of battleground emerging from the southwest. We just have to hope we have enough cold air in place beforehand when that happens . Wow just seen WolfeEire's post about the UKMO. It's not often you see them use the word disruptive! Please let that include us.

Gonzo

Just took a look at this mornings models and this spell of weather is not looking like the proper cold spell I've spent the last 5 winters wishing for. This looks like a brief battleground situation with low level cold and mild Atlantic air mixing with whatever bit of cold we end up with and this is why I'm not really interested in pursuing this cold snap any further. Back to the model watching for me waiting for the next event in February.

All the ingredients that make a memorable cold spell are not on the table here such as long fetch easterlies or north-easterlies, deep cold and lots of instability and most importantly no Atlantic mixing. Maybe we will get something more like that in February, a February 2009 spell would so perfectly.

This upcoming cold snap could still provide snow or wintry conditions and if we get an event out of this at short notice then that will be exciting but for now i'm going to chase the next potential cold spell and hope that it ends up more of a proper long fetch easterly with instability and deeper level of cold.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121591583#Comment_121591583

Gonzo 😅, I sometimes read your posts like I am reading the resignation letter of a departing politician. "Having carefully considered commentary around the position I hold, it was is with deep regret that I have taken the decision to step down from my current position."

You are right to be disappointed in a deep northeasterly or easterly not evolving based on the chase of the past fortnight, but give it another 24 hours. I will hold my judgment until tomorrow evening's 12Zs as we hit the five day mark then when the ECM and UKMO come into their own and GFS ultimately decides what it wants.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121591583#Comment_121591583

If the UKMO long range is correct I doubt a protracted freeze is the form horse, but based on that we would be unlucky not to get a frontal snow event at some point in the next few weeks but I can't see it remaining untouched on the ground for long. It's fine margins, we could end up going through a fairly wet period while parts of England see significant snow fall. I would rather it bone dry in that scenario.