FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
Comments
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An upgrade for cold in the JMA too. The JMA had, in recent runs, gone for a fairly weak push of cold that barely made out north coast. Out to 132hrs below. The UKMO is excellent though the eroding of the Greenland High is a little concern. The GFS op run was a complete mild outlier. Ensembles should support cold
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ECM has the right idea about the likely outcome/pattern, but the finer details will change. Also, you do not necessarily require very cold 850s in the case of a slider low pushing up against cold air in mid winter. I have had heavy snowfall here in Clare when uppers were -3c. Dew points have to be right of course but evaporative cooling can also be a factor. Anyway, that's a discussion for another day.
In meantime, at 192hrs less cold uppers will not be a concern here. ❄️
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216hrs and very cold airmass over Ireland with a potential snowmaker inbound. Whether this happens or not, charts like this are a rare sight in Ireland for mid January
Mad, mad run with heights in place in the northwest. For consistency sake, I'll say it's prob an extreme cold outlier....
Please everybody, do not post a snow chart. It's pointless and only feeds Dublinlive.ie and galwaybeo.ie and if doesn't happen, Met Eireann get blamed (because they make the weather). Lots of changes to come yet between now and then. Very much in FI Territory.
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The final frame of the ECM is interesting a real battleground event probably a snow to wintry mix event for us, however those damn heights over Spain/Portugal are proving very stubborn and it appears in the final frame that the heights finally show signs of lowering over Iberia, if only we could go on another couple of frame.
Blocking over Greenland is decent but the main problem is those southern European heights as always. This is still 10 days away so more changes will happen and more runs needed.
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Definitely some nice developments today if we can look past the GFS horror show. GEM ensembles further improve chances of cold. Icon is starting to look very good and the ECM still good but we could do with the cold been pushed south a bit more as we are close to a rain event but are just about to the right side of the cold.
The KMA looks to be a bit of an outlier with a massive winter storm.
KMA tries to turns things milder but it never really gets mild and the cold starts building again.
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The UKMO MOGREPS is pretty definitive about a northerly airflow by Monday. Generally dry but that's not to say one or two troughs will not appear. Only 1 of the 17 perturbations going for mild.
NAVGEM retains heights and is cold in an unstable airflow
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The ECMWF mean is very similar to the op run for next Wednesday. The vast majority of members are also showing minus 5 or lower 850s by Monday. The ensembles will be the coldest yet overall. You'd have to wonder how the very well supported UKMO and ECM are so different to the GFS.
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